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Anthony Davis: No Loyalty

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by HomeRunBaker, Sep 28, 2018.

  1. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Is this a nothingburger to you guys?
    How much momentum will trade talks get should the Pelicans get off to an 8-13 start with 12 of their first 21 on the road?

    Based on LeBron's history of bringing along veterans with him I do not expect the Lakers to retain their youth past this first season as they look to truly contend beginning next year. Where better to start than your newest off the court teammate who happens to be this guy? I'm not the only one to feel the Pelicans are on the outside looking in but even I was shocked to see how much of an underdog they are to retain him. Who can offer the better overall package next summer (or sooner)…..the Lakers and LeBron's pull or the Celtics? Bovada's official betting line from OddsShark below:

    OddsShark: Opening odds for which team Anthony Davis will be on for the first game of the 2019-20 NBA season (@BovadaOfficial): LAL -190, BOS +250, NO +300, GSW +750

    https://www.si.com/nba/2018/09/23/anthony-davis-klutch-sports-rich-paul-pelicans
     
    #1 HomeRunBaker, Sep 28, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2018
  2. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I mean, the Celtics can clearly offer a much better package if they wanted. Both Tatum and Brown are (much) better than anything LA has. Then you have SAC 2019 and MEM 2019-2021 as additional pieces. LeBron can posture all he wants but Davis is signed for 3 more years so New Orleans doesn't have to do anything.

    I do think Davis trade talk will be prevalent if New Orleans gets off to a bad start.
     
  3. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Rich Paul's posture does matter though as he's one of the most powerful brokers in the game today. If Davis (and Paul) demands a trade he IS going to be traded. Bovada has this as much more likely to occur than to not occur within the next 12 months. There is major smoke here imo.
     
  4. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Not really disagreeing with you. I think there’s a decent chance he gets dealt but I don’t think New Orleans has to do anything next summer, especially if it’s a situation where he is dictating the team. AD doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who’ll go nuclear on a team but who knows.
     
  5. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    I doubt that Davis gives up on his DPVE to help build a western conference also ran. I have no doubts that he’ll demand a trade the year after signing on the dotted line, but that’s about three years away from happening.
     
  6. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    I agree with this.

    He's eligible to sign a supermax extension next summer, he's be crazy to not accept it since he'd be leaving tons of money on the table. Assuming it's offered and he signs, he'd be ineligible to be traded til at least the summer of 2020, and at that point he could have as many as five years left on his contract so New Orleans would have no urgency to move him for quite a while.
     
  7. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    I normally wouldn't disagree with what you guys are saying either...….except a legitimate book such as Bovada has the Pelicans as a significant underdog to have Davis on their roster in 12 months. At the very least it is interesting as well as the fact that Davis choose to change representation so far in advance of hitting FA. Lots of alarms going off for me to not think something is happening behind the scenes here.
     
  8. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    I think you’re probably right that something is happening, particularly as it relates to LeBron. I’m sure AD is on a short list of guys he’d love to bring to LA.

    I didn’t realize that the 5th year of his extension is a player option so that changes things a lot in my book and makes this scenario a lot more real. He’s effectively on a 2 year deal which will be an expiring deal next summer so he’ll have all the leverage he needs to force his way out.

    The real question for me is what AD wants. If it’s LA or bust, then New Orleans would be forced to take whatever LA offers. But Ainge could easily top that if he wanted to. A lot can happen in the next 8 months. Will be interesting to follow.
     
  9. DisgruntledSoxFan77

    DisgruntledSoxFan77 Member SoSH Member

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    Davis to the Celtics is the NBA's edition of Stanton to the Sox. The pipedream that just won't die.
     
  10. Mloaf71

    Mloaf71 lurker

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    I heard the Pats are trading for Fitz any day now...
     
  11. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    How was it a pipedream? Stanton WAS traded.
     
  12. DisgruntledSoxFan77

    DisgruntledSoxFan77 Member SoSH Member

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    To the Sox?
     
  13. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    You missed the obvious point. Yes, the Red Sox were highly engaged in talks with the Marlins and Stanton's reps were urging him to accept a deal to Boston over his preferred destination, the Dodgers. Far from a pipe dream.

    Was KG a pipedream? Kyrie? Randy Moss? Chris Sale?

    Until the Pelicans move Davis we are going to be one of the favorites to acquire him. I would have argued THE favorite until this relationship with Klutch developing.
     
  14. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    It’s not like he needs to pick Rich Paul to sign with the Lakers. He’s getting the max available wherever he signs. The agent change is about the outside income, and Klutch Sports has a proven track record at maximizing the rest of the income stream.

    I still think there’s about a zero percent chance that he turns down 35% max money with 8% raises for 30% max money with 5% raises all for the privilege of fighting to get out of the second round of the west.
     
  15. Papelbon's Poutine

    Papelbon's Poutine Homeland Security SoSH Member

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    It’s really difficult, imho, to make those analogies when factoring in the vastly different salary structures and caps involved.

    KG? Yes, was a pipe dream that turned it down until we got Ray. Also, didn’t hurt that McHale and Ainge happened to know each other. Still, didn’t leave a huge chunk of change on the table to get his wish.

    Kyrie? Disgruntled star, again, demanding a trade. And almost completely out of the blue. I could be corrected but didn’t he keep his rights?

    Moss? No dude, he was scrap heap at that point. Sorry.

    Sale? No comparison to be made. Baseball salary and cap structure eliminates it. As does how trades work differently in the two sports. Baseball it’s prospects. Teams aren’t taking d league guys for a super star.

    Stanton was traded, you’re correct. Attached with a possibly hamstringing contract by the former franchise idol to his old team. He was absolutely a pipe dream to ever be on the Sox.

    Previous poster was correct this is Fitzgerald land. You’re also correct they could offer best package. The two are not mutually exclusive and bovada odds mean shit more than them trying to make money.

    IF he were traded? Yes, that’s a whole other debate. But he’s not demanding one and there’s no reason NO would do it after 20 games.

    Edit: weird typo
     
    #15 Papelbon's Poutine, Sep 28, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2018
  16. DisgruntledSoxFan77

    DisgruntledSoxFan77 Member SoSH Member

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    The difference between Davis and all the names you mentioned *except Sale* was that this has been talked about ad nauseam for years now. Sale was talked about but the difference there was Chicago was listening to offers on him for awhile whereas there's no reports anywhere they're even listening on Davis.

    And for the record, the Stanton pipedream I'm talking about is the pining this fan base did before the contract extension. If you want to get right down to it, it was a pipedream this past off-season too. The team could have begged him to consider Boston all they wanted, he didn't want us. That makes the whole thing a pipedream
     
  17. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Currently I cant figure out an trade on the NBA trade machine that gets AD to Lakers.

    With Rondo and KCP not available now, there's no salaries except Ball's and Ingram's even above $2 million.
     
  18. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    Would you trade Tatum for Davis? While Tatum isn’t Davis, having him on 3 more years of a rookie deal has to make him one of the very top trade chips in he league.
     
  19. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    I love Tatum but I do a trade centered around Tatum for Davis in a Reggie Lewis heartbeat (sorry, that is too soon for even me). I mean, he is a defensive monster and his shooting from deep has consistently improved to the point where he is, perhaps, one of the toughest match-ups in the league in terms of the bigs who can stay with the guy inside and out.

    In short, Davis is Danny's Moby Davis and I completely understand why this is so...
     
  20. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    I mean, don’t we need to get salaries kinda close? How’s that happen?
     
  21. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Can’t do it now but this summer wouldn’t Tatum, Smart, Semi, Yabu work? The latter would have to have his team option for 2019-2020 picked up.
     
  22. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    The issue is you can't trade Tatum for Davis and have the same team. Ultimately it's Tatum and the ability to keep Irving or Brown or Horford or the ability to sign someone else that you're giving up. And maybe Davis is still worth it.

    I'd rather give say, Horford + Brown + SAC pick. And there's no way anyone would beat that.
     
  23. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    If you can get numbers to work this is an ideal situation to utilize the term "cocaine heartbeat."
     
  24. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    Good point on the overall roster impact of acquiring Davis but I think you can win either way. The thing is, in the right scheme and surrounded by the right cast, Davis is simply unguardable. I mean, if the trade is effectively Tatum plus bodies to get the salary match and Kyrie (by virtue of having to let him walk), its still fairly compelling. It really depends on whom they can retain or what other pieces they can put around him.

    In any event, it seems a moot point. The Lakers will likely have the inside position on Davis given what HRB pointed out in the first post in this thread. The C's can clearly offer more but if Davis wants the Lakers, he will likely be shipped there if/when he finally goes on the block.
     
  25. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    New Orleans would hang up and stop taking your calls.

    If they're trading Davis, they're starting over. They aren't looking for a win now veteran big who would likely walk next summer.

    Also think the Sacramento pick is going to be near impossible to move at full value before the draft lottery just because of the small chance it hits #1 and you're stucj holding a pick in the 20s instead.

    Anthony Davis is a guy you'd have to unload for. If you start with having an untouchable in trade talks, the talks are probably over. They'd have to be overwhelmed to even think for more than a second about moving him.
     
  26. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    All future draft picks have uncertainty. The Brooklyn pick could have been 15th this past year. Teams are smart enough to factor in the chance of ending up with the Philly pick instead and value the pick accordingly. But if it’s a sticking point...if the pick is outside the top 10, they also get some other draft asset.

    This package is considerably stronger than Minnesota got for Kevin Garnett; the Lakers would have to trade every asset they have other than LeBron to match it.
     
    #26 moondog80, Sep 30, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2018
  27. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    Brown plus a likely top-5 pick blows away any superstar trade return in recent memory. We need a catchy name for the rule that every NBA star trade happens for 50 cents on the dollar, if that.

    If Davis lasts through this season, and then demands a trade, he'll be in 1-year rental territory due to his player option. At that point, all bets are off in terms of how low the return for him can go.
     
  28. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    Not all draft picks have the same uncertainty. If the Sacramento pick was unprotected, it would be fine. You can value the pick say somewhere between 1 and 8. The #1 protection on it means you have to value it between say somewhere between 2-8, and also in the 20s. That's a massive value swing, and I'd think most GMs are conservative enough to be scared off by that swing, especially one that would be trading away Anthony Davis.
     
  29. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    I mean, a GM has already traded for the pick with the massive value swing (Ainge). Front offices are smart (some anyway) they know how to apply value to conditional draft picks.

    More generally, if they want to trade Davis, good luck to them trying to do better than SAC pick + Brown + Horford. That’s a great chance at a top 5 pick, a very good young player who is cheap for two more years, and an all-star level vet who you can either play or swing for more picks.
     
    #29 moondog80, Sep 30, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2018
  30. Royal Reader

    Royal Reader Member SoSH Member

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    What's an offer that comes from a team that AD might want to go to (ie, he has more chance in the duration of one contract to win a title there than NO) and might top an offer built around Brown and Sacramento? It's all well pointing out its downside. If there's no better offer, and he's definite in wanting to go, who can land him?

    The Lakers don't control anyone else's pick. They could offer Ingram plus some combo of Ball, Kuzma and Hart.

    The Sixers could probably top the offer, if they're willing to give up Simmons or Embiid. To be honest, that would top everything, and given Embiid's injury history and his own extension, it might even be a good move. But it would be one hell of a gutsy move by Brand, and I'm not sure I see it (though hearing Brand on the Lowe Post, it kind of sounds like he was asked in his interview about how he relatively sees BS vs JE). I don't think Philly gets him for any package built primarily around the Miami pick, which is probably the second best pick not held by the original team.

    The Warriors supposedly want him, but Klay Thompson's not re-signing to be traded within a year. A Draymond package I don't think tops what the Celtics would offer.

    Is there a Clippers offer out there? Their own pick isn't terrible, they have a lot of decent guys that maybe you could flip for a first from a fringey playoff team, and would likely be able to attract a sidekick in FA. After that - he's unlikely to go small market, Atlanta and Chicago aren't contenders even with him. Mark Cuban's already traded away next year's first, Miami doesn't have any assets that would appeal to a team that would instantly enter a rebuilding phase. The Knicks have said they're not trading their picks, though I guess if someone the quality of AD comes available, AND both Knox and Mitchell are good AND KP comes back 100%, they could trade one of the two young guys, a pick and a swap.
     
  31. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    Keep in mind that Horford has a player option following this season that he will almost certainly decline to achieve greater long term security. It will most likely be in Boston however if he's moved to a rebuilding team it would be unlikely that is where he would choose to play until he's 36. For trade value purposes he's an expiring contract at the trade deadline.
     
  32. Smokey Joe

    Smokey Joe Member SoSH Member

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    Only if it is in the top 14, otherwise it’s ours.

    (Rubs hands together and cackles maniacally.)
     
  33. Royal Reader

    Royal Reader Member SoSH Member

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    Ah, but the uncertainty means they can't trade the following one, right? Probably kiboshes that.
     
  34. moondog80

    moondog80 heart is two sizes two small SoSH Member

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    I'd rather have the Memphis (thank you Jeff Green) pick.
     
  35. mcpickl

    mcpickl Member SoSH Member

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    This thinking always leaves out that they can, of course, keep the player.

    If you have a dollar and the best anyone offers you for it is 50 cents, you don't just have to take the 50 cents. Just pocket that dollar.

    You can also look at that offer as a very good young player, a veteran on an expiring deal that does us no good in a rebuild, and a pick that could be in the 20s.

    That deal gets a GM fired. GMs hate getting fired. It's a pretty good high-paying gig.

    Think about it if you're a fan of the Pelicans instead of the Celtics, how are you feeling about your proposed deal?
     
  36. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Isn’t all of this predicated on AD saying or signaling that he’s not re-signing in New Orleans? If he does that the Pelicans fan (do they exist?) should be quite pleased with that offer. What’s the point of keeping the dollar if it’s going to go away in a year?
    The odds of the Kings pick being in the 20s is so incredibly low that a GM really shouldn’t be overly concerned by it. If you can start a rebuild with Jaylen, Kings, and whatever you turn Horford into, you’ve done a pretty good job as a GM considering what you’re being boxed into. And if AD is really on the table, I’d bet that Danny would add the MEM pick as well.
     
  37. BigMike

    BigMike Dope Dope

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    Is it really incredibly low? Let's say it's 10%, that seems like a reasonable number, given Sac could be anywhere from the worst team (14%) or say 7th worst (7.5%) . Is 10% incredibly low? Beyond that I'd argue there is an 75-80% chance the pick won't be in the top 3.
     
  38. Royal Reader

    Royal Reader Member SoSH Member

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    Sure, but if you're NO, trading Davis means years in the wilderness. Getting #2 or #3 gives you a shot at getting a guy worth getting excited about, and the chance to cut a year or two off the tank. Probably worth more than a certain late lottery pick, even with the downside risk. If you offered NO a certain number eight pick, or a pick which is equally likely to be three, eight, or 22, I think they take the latter.

    ED: The above is a thought experiment, not my characterisation of the Sac pick, just to be clear.
     
  39. Deathofthebambino

    Deathofthebambino Drive Carefully SoSH Member

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  40. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    Jay King has the following in his column for The Athletic today.

    "Heck, imagine Anthony Davis running the lane alongside Irving, Gordon Hayward and Jayson Tatum. That may not be impossible. Rumors about the New Orleans center’s future have persisted. It’s not time for the Pelicans to make a decision on Davis yet, but if he turns down a mega-extension next summer the Pelicans could have no choice but to trade him.

    If they do, the Celtics will be one of the obvious suitors, with Brown, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, Robert Williams and/or a number of future picks including a possible top-five selection to dangle. Even if Tatum’s off the table, Boston would be able to field a competitive offer. Several league sources have said they believe Davis could end up either with the Celtics or Lakers if the Pelicans were to move him. If he landed with the Celtics, he’d be reunited with former Team USA teammate Irving. The two have already spoken about what it would be like to play together in Boston, according to a league source."

    https://theathletic.com/569945/2018...s-now-its-ok-to-daydream-about-whats-to-come/
     
  41. DisgruntledSoxFan77

    DisgruntledSoxFan77 Member SoSH Member

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    Yeah, pretty sure if Davis becomes available, the Pelicans are not doing anything that doesn't include Tatum
     
  42. Ed Hillel

    Ed Hillel Wants to be startin somethin SoSH Member

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    If the Celtics get a top 5 pick and can throw in Brown and some other assets, go right ahead and let them find a better offer.
     
  43. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    Yeah, you'd think so. But remember what happens in these kind of deals. I mean, Kyrie Irving is standing right there.
     
  44. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    HP is talking about this (he hates Celtics fans, by the way)

     
  45. bosox79

    bosox79 Member SoSH Member

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    Largely depends on what other teams offer. Jaylen Brown isn't a slouch. What other building blocks better than him would be made available? Philly isn't going to offer Ben Simmons, Utah isn't offering Donovan Mitchell. It's going to be the Lakers offering Brandon Ingram or the Nuggets offering Jamal Murray or the Suns offering everyone but Booker.
     
  46. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Agreed. But if Philly doesn't offer up Simmons for a prime Anthony Davis, they are incredibly dumb. You may be right but we're talking about a top 3 guy smack dab in his prime. Celtics have the pieces to get this done even without Tatum, assuming we don't have disastrous luck with the SAC pick. We'll see where the Memphis pick lands but that could easily be another lotto pick in the next 3 years. Brown plus those 2 picks, Williams, and filler is about as good as you could hope for if you're a GM with a star on the way out.
     
  47. nighthob

    nighthob Member SoSH Member

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    If the Kings pick lands top 4, and Boston manages to ink Rozier to an extension this month, then Brown/Rozier/top4 pick is about the best the Pelicans are going to do.
     
  48. The Needler

    The Needler lurker

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    Simmons is a potential top 3 guy, he’s 3 years younger, and isn’t somewhat duplicative of the best other player on their roster. It’s far from unreasonable to project him as a more valuable player. 538’s CARMELO does.
     
  49. BigSoxFan

    BigSoxFan Member SoSH Member

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    Simmons potential top 3 guy in the NBA? Not a chance unless we see some drastic shooting improvements. I certainly hope Philly holds back Simmons in any hypothetical AD trade discussions. Would make it that much easier for Danny to land him.
     
  50. DisgruntledSoxFan77

    DisgruntledSoxFan77 Member SoSH Member

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    Those are pretty big if's. How about the Kings pick ends up 1st (which there's a decent enough chance of), what's the play there?
     

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