2017 Yankees Offseason Discussion

terrynever

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 25, 2005
21,717
pawtucket
My guess (and it really is a guess) is that Cashman told him nicely that if he opted out, NY would wish him the best of luck and move in a different direction.



This could have just as easily been the player personnel guys behind those two, though. Neither of those two made it hard to stick with them all season (especially Severino) and it's not like NY really had options in AAA, they gave freaking Caleb Smith starts when they needed someone over the summer.
Player development gets credit and I imagine Cashman advocated keeping Severino as a starter. But one thing we must consider after firing the manager and his coaching staff is Girardi and Rothschild did a really nice job with the pitching staff this season, except for Betances. This team peaked in September and October, not an easy thing when pitchers can be overworked so easily. I guess it was July and August that sewed the seeds of Joe's demise.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
When will people stop bringing up his elbow? We already know he's got a tear but at the time, they said it was minor enough to pitch through and that was years ago. If it was a problem, they would have taken care of it already. Instead, he's pitched very well and had no health issues at all. On the list of injuries to worry about, his elbow is probably near the bottom in my opinion.

Sure, it could limit his potential contract, but it's not a secret to anyone.
Actually I think it's a legit thing to bring up in this context, other teams might have been hesitant to commit 4-5 years to him, and maybe more importantly, a new contract might be uninsurable.

But for whatever reason, it ends up working out very well for NY, a 3/67 deal to a guy who turned 29 last week and who just had three dominant starts in the ALDS and ALCS.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
But one thing we must consider after firing the manager and his coaching staff is Girardi and Rothschild did a really nice job with the pitching staff this season, except for Betances. This team peaked in September and October, not an easy thing when pitchers can be overworked so easily. I guess it was July and August that sewed the seeds of Joe's demise.
I don't think it had much to do with on-field performance, I think Cashman is just looking for someone longer-term and Girardi was fairly clearly getting close to burnt out.
 

NYCSox

chris hansen of goats
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 19, 2004
10,494
Some fancy town in CT
Actually I think it's a legit thing to bring up in this context, other teams might have been hesitant to commit 4-5 years to him, and maybe more importantly, a new contract might be uninsurable.

But for whatever reason, it ends up working out very well for NY, a 3/67 deal to a guy who turned 29 last week and who just had three dominant starts in the ALDS and ALCS.
Right thanks for amplifying my point. Also this may not be an active signing season for big market clubs with 2018 on the horizon. So he was at considerable risk of losing out. That said I’m a little surprised that he couldn’t at least squeeze out an extra year.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
That said I’m a little surprised that he couldn’t at least squeeze out an extra year.
Well, the original deal was signed and presumably insured before the tear was discovered, so if that was the issue, he maybe didn't have a choice really.

Also I think it's harder for Japanese players (especially big contract stars) to just jump around to whoever offers the biggest deal, comfort and routine and familiarity are more of a factor for them than for others (again, just my perception, although my wife is from Tokyo).
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Interesting quotes from CC on a podcast today. Personally I don't think they can let him go after what he did against BOS this season (4-0 in 4 starts with a 1.05 ERA), but this is interesting:

"If my run is up here, like Joe, I had a great time," Sabathia said. "I was here for nine years with some of the best players on the planet, won a World Series, greatest fans ever. I was a Yankee. I can say that. But no, I'm good with it. It's weird, I'm good with baseball however it shakes out. If I'm done next year, if I'm done the year after, it is what it is. This is all borrowed time for me. This is extra. I'm just having fun."

http://m.yankees.mlb.com/news/article/260673824/pitcher-masahiro-tanaka-to-stay-with-yankees/?tcid=tw_share
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Interesting quotes from CC on a podcast today. Personally I don't think they can let him go after what he did against BOS this season (4-0 in 4 starts with a 1.05 ERA), but this is interesting:

"If my run is up here, like Joe, I had a great time," Sabathia said. "I was here for nine years with some of the best players on the planet, won a World Series, greatest fans ever. I was a Yankee. I can say that. But no, I'm good with it. It's weird, I'm good with baseball however it shakes out. If I'm done next year, if I'm done the year after, it is what it is. This is all borrowed time for me. This is extra. I'm just having fun."

http://m.yankees.mlb.com/news/article/260673824/pitcher-masahiro-tanaka-to-stay-with-yankees/?tcid=tw_share
Are he and Girardi especially tight?
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Not that I know of, but Girardi was the manager for CC's entire 9 year tenure in NY so far. What I think he is kind of implying there is more towards that at least a bit of his value is as an experienced veteran on a team with so many kids, but it's possible that Cashman doesn't value that enough to keep him.

Also I think CC realizes that baseball is a business and that in the prior two negotiations with NY, he had the upper hand because they desperately needed him, but now that could go either way. I still think they end up resigning him for something like 1/10 or 1/12 but we'll see. And he's made somewhere around $240M in his career, it's a lot easier to be calm about whatever will be, will be when you've already banked that much money.
 

terrynever

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 25, 2005
21,717
pawtucket
Not that I know of, but Girardi was the manager for CC's entire 9 year tenure in NY so far. What I think he is kind of implying there is more towards that at least a bit of his value is as an experienced veteran on a team with so many kids, but it's possible that Cashman doesn't value that enough to keep him.

Also I think CC realizes that baseball is a business and that in the prior two negotiations with NY, he had the upper hand because they desperately needed him, but now that could go either way. I still think they end up resigning him for something like 1/10 or 1/12 but we'll see. And he's made somewhere around $240M in his career, it's a lot easier to be calm about whatever will be, will be when you've already banked that much money.
Great post, Jon. After Joel Sherman, you are my favorite Yankee writer.

Would CC be attractive to another contender needing his leadership?
 

terrynever

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 25, 2005
21,717
pawtucket
I think he'd be very attractive, both for his leadership and his reinvention as a pitcher. I'd take him in a second.
Bob, you're probably old enough to remember Robin Roberts, who reinvented himself as a junkballer with Baltimore in the early 1960s. And Frank Tanana. CC might have two more effective years left until that sore knee locks up for good.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Also it's easy for us to remember the couple of years where he was terrible, but he has regained velocity and can get to 92 or 93 again when he needs to now. And this is a guy who led all of baseball in exit velocity against in 2016 before his very solid 2017, he certainly could get hurt again at any time but a one year deal is a no-brainer IMO, even with a crowded rotation, and that's even before getting into that he seems to be a great clubhouse leader.

One thing I want to do, maybe later tonight, is research how the Dodgers handled their rotation this past season, as it seems like that might make sense for NY if they are lucky enough to end up with too many SPs. LA did things like put guys on the DL for a start or two even if they were healthy to keep them fresh all year, but like I said, I need to research it more thoroughly.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Bob, you're probably old enough to remember Robin Roberts, who reinvented himself as a junkballer with Baltimore in the early 1960s. And Frank Tanana. CC might have two more effective years left until that sore knee locks up for good.
Roberts, no, Tanana for sure. I think CC would be fine going year to year at this point.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Also it's easy for us to remember the couple of years where he was terrible, but he has regained velocity and can get to 92 or 93 again when he needs to now. And this is a guy who led all of baseball in exit velocity against in 2016 before his very solid 2017, he certainly could get hurt again at any time but a one year deal is a no-brainer IMO, even with a crowded rotation, and that's even before getting into that he seems to be a great clubhouse leader.

One thing I want to do, maybe later tonight, is research how the Dodgers handled their rotation this past season, as it seems like that might make sense for NY if they are lucky enough to end up with too many SPs. LA did things like put guys on the DL for a start or two even if they were healthy to keep them fresh all year, but like I said, I need to research it more thoroughly.
The Dodgers used the DL like I don't remember any team using it before. And I'm not really sure how MLB can stop it, even though it's bound to be copied.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Also it should be noted in the ongoing Sanchez defensive discussions that he was behind the plate for all three of Tanaka's dominant postseason starts this year, 2 runs allowed in 20 innings against CLE/@HOU/HOU. That's presumably tough to walk away from, even before getting to him being the best hitting catcher in baseball (or at least top two with Posey).
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,594
Garden City
The Dodger's indeed abused the DL but there's no reason why a 6 man rotation doesn't accomplish the same thing. The extra roster spot during the DL stints didn't save their season or anything.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
That's a big roster spot during the season, otherwise you have to use just six relievers (this is rarely effective for long) or a bench of just two players plus the backup C. Also I believe the way they did it (I still need to research it) kept guys on their regular five day turn a lot of the time, I think that is probably best for most pitchers, but 30 starts instead of 35 starts is probably also better for most pitchers. It was partly because of injuries, but no Dodgers starter made more than 27 starts this regular season.
 

Wingack

Yankee Mod
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
34,597
In The Quivering Forest
I suspected he would say, and I am glad he did. This is a best case scenario. Even IF he does have to get TJ at some point over the next 3 years, the Yankees still come out ahead as it saves them from going out and signing a pitcher (potentially over third) to a multi-year deal.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,594
Garden City
I suspected he would say, and I am glad he did. This is a best case scenario. Even IF he does have to get TJ at some point over the next 3 years, the Yankees still come out ahead as it saves them from going out and signing a pitcher (potentially over third) to a multi-year deal.
With Tanaka, the payroll is at $144m (w/ estimated arb numbers). That leaves probably 40-45M Cashman would comfortably spend to stay under the $197 mark while leaving some room for the deadline. There's also a strong possibility he tries to save money on Ellsbury. There is a good amount of payroll flexibility here IF Cashman did want to spend on the market.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
With Tanaka, the payroll is at $144m (w/ estimated arb numbers). That leaves probably 40-45M Cashman would comfortably spend to stay under the $197 mark while leaving some room for the deadline. There's also a strong possibility he tries to save money on Ellsbury. There is a good amount of payroll flexibility here IF Cashman did want to spend on the market.
I don't see why or where he would except for upgrading backup catcher. They have too many outfielders, too many infielders once Torres and Andujar are deemed ready, a very full bullpen (I suppose they could overpay for a lefty like Jake McGee) and a very full rotation once they make it official with CC, even before possibly getting Otani. DH is open but Andujar and Clint Frazier and possibly Otani can take those ABs, plus maybe 30 games for Sanchez there, some for Judge, etc.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Here is MLBN's attempt to guess NY's 2020 Opening Day team (not quite as far away as it sounds). I think the lineup is exactly right given their current roster/system, I am less sure about the pitching staff (Albert Abreu probably more likely than Chance Adams, although farther away now). Pretty cool to see this from an 'official' outlet, though:

 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
This of course doesn't mean anything, but all five writers here pick Otani to land with the Yankees, man that would be exciting:

SP/DH Shohei Otani
18 OF 20




  1. Shizuo Kambayashi/Associated Press

    Gould (Yankees): International spending limit caps any spending advantage, but the Yankees can still recruit Otani with a big market and a young, loaded roster that will allow the two-way star to contend on a grand platform before exploring a truly unfettered market.

    Knobler (Yankees): The rules won't allow them to use all their money to separate them, but they have New York and a strong team on the rise to offer. They also have a history with Japanese players (Matsui, Tanaka and more).

    Reuter (Yankees): The Yankees knew how to market Hideki Matsui when he made the jump from Japan, and they'll be able to do the same with Otani. The Big Apple would provide the two-way star with ample endorsement opportunities to help offset the money he's leaving on the table by not waiting to come stateside.

    Rymer (Yankees): Because it's frankly impossible to imagine a more perfect fit.

    Shafer (Yankees): It won't be about the money for Otani, which means it will be about the prestige and opportunity to win. The up-and-coming Yankees and their pedigree/history/profile offer both. The only question is if they'll let him pitch and DH.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2741388-br-experts-full-2017-18-mlb-offseason-preview-predictions
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
I don't think they're going to sign a DH this year, especially if they think they will get Otani. Clint Frazier, Andujar, Sanchez if they get a backup C, Otani, all will need DH ABs if possible.
 

Wingack

Yankee Mod
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
34,597
In The Quivering Forest
I don't think they're going to sign a DH this year, especially if they think they will get Otani. Clint Frazier, Andujar, Sanchez if they get a backup C, Otani, all will need DH ABs if possible.
I have advocated for them to pick up an experienced bat elsewhere in this thread, and I still maintain they will need one.

It is great to have an open DH spot during the season so you can move guys around and use it as a spot to rest players, but you don't need to have a spot to rest someone when you are in the playoffs. The Yankees were at a disadvantage in the post season because they didn't have a solid permanent DH type. Headley eventually came around but it felt like the DH spot was 0-49.

Plus, the team needs more left-handed bats. Either could put 20 over the short wall with a nice batting average.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
They had Andujar but Girardi ignored him down the stretch, I wonder if his treatment of Andujar and Wade was directly connected to his firing.

I think if you sign an experienced bat at DH, it probably needs to be after the Otani situation is resolved so he doesn’t think he’s blocked there.
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2007
17,301
Washington
I think if you sign an experienced bat at DH, it probably needs to be after the Otani situation is resolved so he doesn’t think he’s blocked there.
Has anyone seen a timeline on when that is expected to happen? I'm sure the information is out there, but either I've missed it or forgotten.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Has anyone seen a timeline on when that is expected to happen? I'm sure the information is out there, but either I've missed it or forgotten.
Right now, the MLB union is holding it up, there needs to be an agreement in place between the two leagues before he can declare his intentions. This was also the case (agreement in limbo) when Tanaka came, and that year the agreement was settled on in mid-December and Tanaka posted about a week later.
 

Wingack

Yankee Mod
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
34,597
In The Quivering Forest
They had Andujar but Girardi ignored him down the stretch, I wonder if his treatment of Andujar and Wade was directly connected to his firing.

I think if you sign an experienced bat at DH, it probably needs to be after the Otani situation is resolved so he doesn’t think he’s blocked there.
Sure, I don't mind this strategy. Blocking out Otani is obviously not worth it. But, getting a solid bat to sit in the DH hole, and Holliday was that bat before falling ill, is such a huge asset especially in the playoffs. Rather than a patchwork of guys like Headley and Ellsbury.
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,594
Garden City
Sure, I don't mind this strategy. Blocking out Otani is obviously not worth it. But, getting a solid bat to sit in the DH hole, and Holliday was that bat before falling ill, is such a huge asset especially in the playoffs. Rather than a patchwork of guys like Headley and Ellsbury.
Yea, there's no question about this. The DH spot being used to rest guys was great when our team was old. Now that they're young, we should be able to get an everyday DH who can spot start in a utility type role.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Well, if you assume that Gardner/Hicks/Judge will be the OF and Ellsbury will be moved, Clint Frazier needs ABs. Same with Headley/Castro with Torres/Andujar behind them, unless you think both Headley and Castro will be moved. Is there someone we can get on a one year deal that is a clear upgrade from Frazier or Andujar?

Anyway, Otani just picked an agent, so maybe that will happen a little faster than I guessed above.

Dylan Hernandez‏Verified account @dylanohernandez 17m17 minutes ago

Sources: Shohei Ohtani has chosen CAA to represent him in the United States. Nez Balelo will be the lead agent.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Cito Culver and Mason Williams are both now free agents because they weren't added to the 40 man roster, both are MLB quality defensive players and athletes, both are lacking offensively but both could break through given the right opportunity.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Cashman quotes from Twitter just now:

"Cashman on NYY player moves this offseason: “We enter this winter with the ability to be patient, even if that includes the entire winter. We’re always looking for improvements.”

Cashman has not yet spoken with CC Sabathia or his agent, Kyle Thousand of Roc Nation Sports, since he became a free agent. Could meet with Thousand during GM Meetings. “I’m sure I’ll see him.”

Cashman on offseason needs: "Obviously we enter this winter with the ability to be patient, even if that includes the entire winter....It’s a good place to be in. But I think we’ve already showed that standing pat is not something that we’re comfortable with either.""
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
I still have my eye on Felipe Rivero, the hard-throwing lefty closer for PIT. He is arb-eligible this winter so will start getting pricier, he is under team control through 2021. What about Clint Frazier and Betances (2 years control) for Rivero? Wouldn't PIT have a hard time saying no to that?

And yes, NY is loaded in the bullpen already, but 2018 is Robertson's last year, so this would be a longer-term move.

Green (through 2022)
Kahnle (through 2020)
Rivero (through 2021)
Chapman (through 2021)
 

Murderer's Crow

Dragon Wangler 216
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,594
Garden City
I still have my eye on Felipe Rivero, the hard-throwing lefty closer for PIT. He is arb-eligible this winter so will start getting pricier, he is under team control through 2021. What about Clint Frazier and Betances (2 years control) for Rivero? Wouldn't PIT have a hard time saying no to that?

And yes, NY is loaded in the bullpen already, but 2018 is Robertson's last year, so this would be a longer-term move.

Green (through 2022)
Kahnle (through 2020)
Rivero (through 2021)
Chapman (through 2021)
Clint Frazier is a hefty price to pay for Felipe Rivero, who doesn't have a lengthy track-record. I agree that he is extremely attractive but Clint could bring something better back than a reliever.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Could be, but NY doesn't have many holes to fill and a dominant lefty setup guy is one of them. Moving Frazier might leave NY somewhat thin in the OF but it would also open up things for a potential Harper signing next winter (or even a Stanton acquisition, especially if Otani goes elsewhere and DH is more open).

Anyway, just a thought.
 

Wingack

Yankee Mod
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
34,597
In The Quivering Forest
Could be, but NY doesn't have many holes to fill and a dominant lefty setup guy is one of them. Moving Frazier might leave NY somewhat thin in the OF but it would also open up things for a potential Harper signing next winter (or even a Stanton acquisition, especially if Otani goes elsewhere and DH is more open).

Anyway, just a thought.
If you are bringing up a Stanton acquisition, I would rather ship Frazier and Betances to Miami in a deal for him.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Heh, I just started fantasizing about this 2019 lineup, they wouldn't be paying anyone big bucks except Stanton/Harper and maybe Didi:

Torres 2B (22)
Judge RF (26)
Harper LF (26)
Stanton DH (29)
Bird 1B (26)
Sanchez C (26)
Gregorius SS (29)
Hicks/Florial CF (29/21)
Andujar 3B (24)

(ages as of April 1, 2019)
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
Machado might be a better fit for that team than Stanton, he will still only be 26 on Opening Day 2019 and he could play 3B and push Andujar or Clint Frazier to DH.

Signing Machado and Harper in the same offseason would be impossible under most circumstances, but NY has a ton of financial flexibility and even more if they move some of Ellsbury's deal and Castro:

 

Big John

New Member
Dec 9, 2016
2,086
Otani bats from the left side. 1.004 OPS in 2016, .942 in 2017. Kill two birds with one stone.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
I'm well aware, he was the MVP of their All-Star game in 2016 at 22 just as a hitter, he didn't pitch. But his decision is still up in the air, he could go anywhere.
 

VORP Speed

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
6,649
Ground Zero
When Otani signs with the Yankees and turns out to be a legit bat, will they use the extra flexibility to carry an additional bullpen arm?
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
When Otani signs with the Yankees and turns out to be a legit bat, will they use the extra flexibility to carry an additional bullpen arm?
I am assuming they will bring back CC, so then maybe a six man rotation and still seven relievers and twelve hitters (plus Otani)? He would be a part-time DH so it’s more of a partial extra roster spot than a full one. Hopefully we get the chance to see...
 

terrynever

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 25, 2005
21,717
pawtucket
Probably old news but my BR feed says Yankees are bringing Chad Green to spring training as a starting pitcher candidate.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
No, it's new, it's from Cashman's comments today, and let's see what happens with CC and (fingers crossed) Ohtani first, as well as Betances.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
71,229
I don't see that happening, but then again I thought Severino should be left in the bullpen before last season. Um, WRONG.