Farrell out

Kielty's Last Pitch said:

If the trade chips include Mookie or Benny or Devers, a deal could get done.

Stanton ain't gonna come cheap, he isn't a salary dump.

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Even if Benintendi is the centerpiece, they can't keep up with a team like the Yankees in building a package. Not without sinking the major league team, anyway.

They aren't trading Devers. They have literally no one to play 3rd if they do. They aren't trading Mookie as they may end up treading water with that move (never mind an additional cost) and he's not likely to be cheap enough for long enough to make Jeter bite.

The Marlins will want mostly prospects, not established young players who will be expensive relatively soon. The Sox have no chance.

Green Monster said:

Question for the analytics crowd: Is there such a thing as WAR for managers? If so, how does everyone stack up??

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Not a recent computation - but you can find an interesting exercise on the idea with a listing of all-time Manager WAR (up to 2012) here.

Green Monster said:

Question for the analytics crowd: Is there such a thing as WAR for managers? If so, how does everyone stack up??

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There isn't. But this is from last year during the manager of the year debates. If we're trying to get at the relative value Farrell provides as a manager from year to year, the numbers are still relevant. I hope he does an update for this year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/

If you take DD's statement to mean the catalyst was more about a generalized clubhouse leadership issue than on-field performance (or a specific on/off field incident), then you have to believe this has been in the works for awhile - as has the internal discussions of the replacement. Who knows, maybe DD didn't like this inheritance from day one.

Based solely on interviews, Farrell seemed to be a genuinely decent guy, intelligent and rational. But maybe too nice a guy? Maybe he lacked the discipline trait? Did he not stand up to Price? Did he not reel in Hanley when his focus drifted? Was the Apple Watch the last straw? We are likely never to find out.

Because people shop for what they don't have, my guess is we end up with (1) a younger former player (2) with managerial experience and (3) someone who DD knows and trusts.

It's going to be Ausmus, and it's going to be announced within 30 days.

FML and yours too.

Someone raised the question of post-success firings. Yankees fired Yogi Berra after the pennant-winning '64 season. Lost to the Cardinals in 7.

I'm not saying I agree or disagree with the sentiment to make Alex Cora the leading candidate.

But I will say that I'm somewhat confused by the fervor via SOSH for him to be next manager.

I know this is a SABR-leaning crowd - so I'm wondering if Cora has shown an inclination to embrace those tools.....and hence the excitement from SOSH.

Personally, I'd be looking for someone to connect with the younger players (especially the Latin kids) and handle the pitching staff / bullpen properly.

I think Varitek satisfies this.

Kielty's Last Pitch said:

Stanton ain't gonna come cheap, he isn't a salary dump.

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The first part of your take is correct; the second half isn't. If Stanton had a reasonable contract, there's no reason for the Marlins to trade him. They are going to trade him precisely because of his salary ... but will get a better package in return than the usual dumps.

As for Farrell, he was the manager for a WS title and two other division titles. And Julio Lugo was the starting shortstop for a WS champion. Sometimes you're an instrument of positive change ... sometimes you're just there when something good happens.

For me, the Red Sox have had two stellar managers in the years of my following the team -- Dick Williams and Terry Francona, and they had their flaws as well. Chances are that whoever they choose won't be to their level ... but given the right circumstances, they could be there when something good happens.

joe dokes said:

Someone raised the question of post-success firings. Yankees fired Yogi Berra after the pennant-winning '64 season. Lost to the Cardinals in 7.

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Not a terrible manager, and pretty successful. You all remember this guy, fired for one very bad decision.

joe dokes said:

Someone raised the question of post-success firings. Yankees fired Yogi Berra after the pennant-winning '64 season. Lost to the Cardinals in 7.

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And they hired the guy whose team beat them in the Series

Like some others, I wish Farrell well as he moves on. I wonder if the (mis) management of player injuries was a factor in the team's failure to put it all together in the post season. If players were not optimally treated injury-wise this season, I'd like to see some improvement in that area.

Snodgrass'Muff said:

There isn't. But this is from last year during the manager of the year debates. If we're trying to get at the relative value Farrell provides as a manager from year to year, the numbers are still relevant. I hope he does an update for this year.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/

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The problem for me is that I don't see why those variables define a manager, at all. Or at least be the biggest relevant factor, ahead of man managing, motivation, resting patterns, general boring day to day "looking after 25 overgrown millionaire kids" type stuff. It could be lazy get out thinking, but I have a hard time believing that that kind of stuff isn't more relevant. On top of that, what a SABR guy Thinks is best for the stuff noted below, I can't imagine that many managers would buck "tried and tested" ways, someone like Maddon might be a good recent example of someone who seems open to that kind of in game thinking. But how can that study take account of whether your best relivers were not available for a critical situation etc etc.
The article at least addresses that its probably error strewn and full of assumptions. I'd say it's nigh on impossible, but even if you just included "in game stuff" as here, you'd need to properly account for each situation one at a time, working out some kind of win probability added based on the Changes made, but I dont see how you could ever adjust for "off field" stuff affecting on field stuff

It would be interesting to see a year for year evaluation of the same managers to see if there's any actual trends.
I still Believe more in the "boring day to day human management" aspect (including irrational stuff like accounting for egos and unwritten rules of baseball regarding treating of different experience level players), and that feels also like its more likely to have a shelf Life, because people tend to get bored and/or fed up with each other after a few years (true for many people and jobs). Otherwise, the great managers would be around for ever, and also, its hard to Believe that there doesnt exist enough people who know all the stuff listed below so well as to have every team with access to a basically "optimum" manager.

As far as I, noted idiot, can figure, it’s these variables that define a manager:

• When he uses his best relievers.
• How rigid his approach to the bullpen is.
• Where he puts his best hitters in the lineup.
• How often he bunts with non-pitchers.

E5 Yaz said:

And they hired the guy whose team beat them in the Series

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And to be fair, they did finish 1st again 12 years later.

shepard50 said:

Not a terrible manager, and pretty successful. You all remember this guy, fired for one very bad decision.

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No he wasn't.

That one instance was a convenient one for the media and fans to latch on to, but management wanted Little gone long before he left Pedro in a few batters too long.

Buck Showalter said:

I'm not saying I agree or disagree with the sentiment to make Alex Cora the leading candidate.

But I will say that I'm somewhat confused by the fervor via SOSH for him to be next manager.

I know this is a SABR-leaning crowd - so I'm wondering if Cora has shown an inclination to embrace those tools.....and hence the excitement from SOSH.

Personally, I'd be looking for someone to connect with the younger players (especially the Latin kids) and handle the pitching staff / bullpen properly.

I think Varitek satisfies this.

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If you're looking for a Latino connection, Cora is decidedly more Puerto Rican than Varitek.

Buck Showalter said:

I'm not saying I agree or disagree with the sentiment to make Alex Cora the leading candidate.

But I will say that I'm somewhat confused by the fervor via SOSH for him to be next manager.

I know this is a SABR-leaning crowd - so I'm wondering if Cora has shown an inclination to embrace those tools.....and hence the excitement from SOSH.

Personally, I'd be looking for someone to connect with the younger players (especially the Latin kids) and handle the pitching staff / bullpen properly.

I think Varitek satisfies this.

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One of the reasons Cora is often cited is his track record managing in the Latin winter leagues, which are heavily populated by younger players.

I'd like to see them look at Cora, Callaway and Kapler.

joe dokes said:

And to be fair, they did finish 1st again 12 years later.

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with Berra as coach.

Red(s)HawksFan said:

... management wanted Little gone long before he left Pedro in a few batters too long.

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Indeed. Dozens and dozens of illogical decisions. ... Henry wanted to fire him before the 2003 season even began.

Red(s)HawksFan said:

No he wasn't.

That one instance was a convenient one for the media and fans to latch on to, but management wanted Little gone long before he left Pedro in a few batters too long.

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OK. But his team won 95 games in 2003. I won't quibble on why he was fired except to say: if Pedro comes out, we most likely win that game, and I doubt Grady is sacked after taking the Red Sox to the World Series for the first time in 18 years.

shepard50 said:

OK. But his team won 95 games in 2003. I won't quibble on why he was fired except to say: if Pedro comes out, we most likely win that game, and I doubt Grady is sacked after taking the Red Sox to the World Series for the first time in 18 years.

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That's likely true, but I've always thought that keeping Pedro in didn't force them to fire Grady, it enabled them to.

Al Zarilla said:

I don't see that at all about Varitek being like Farrell. Tek always sounded like a people guy and guys like Pedro, Millar, Beckett, et al had nothing but the best to say about him as a teammate, analytic guy, etc. Of course, how can we as fans really tell? Farrell always struck me as a no personality guy though.

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Varitek was front and center for the chicken and beer incidents and as Captain, said or did nothing that we know of to prevent it.

Papelbon's Poutine said:

One of the reasons Cora is often cited is his track record managing in the Latin winter leagues, which are heavily populated by younger players.

I'd like to see them look at Cora, Callaway and Kapler.

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And like Kapler, Cora has experience with this city as a player. Which matters, especially for a young guy, because this is a very high maintenance place to manage. Not a high maintenance ownership group or GM, but a media zoo and fan base with sky high expectations.

moondog80 said:

That's likely true, but I've always thought that keeping Pedro in didn't force them to fire Grady, it enabled them to.

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I might be conflating stories a bit here but wasn't there a bit in Seth Mnookin's Feeding the Monster about how when HWL took over the team, in that first series of the year against TB and Grady employed the "bullpen by committee" and the Rays hit a walk off HR, one of the owners leaned over to another and said something like "can we fire him yet?"

Actually, who is third on the list of Sox managers in the last 50 years? It's Francona... big gap... Farrell... then... who, Jimy Williams? Kevin Kennedy? Slim pickins.

Caveat: I don't know anything about the pre-Ralph Houk era, manager-wise.

moondog80 said:

That's likely true, but I've always thought that keeping Pedro in didn't force them to fire Grady, it enabled them to.

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Plus, leaving Pedro in was a symptom of the overarching issues that he had as a manager for which they wanted to replace him in the first place.

m0ckduck said:

Actually, who is third on the list of Sox managers in the last 50 years? It's Francona... big gap... Farrell... then... who, Jimy Williams? Kevin Kennedy? Slim pickins.

Caveat: I don't know anything about the pre-Ralph Houk era, manager-wise.

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Dick Williams?

Snodgrass'Muff said:

Even if Benintendi is the centerpiece, they can't keep up with a team like the Yankees in building a package. Not without sinking the major league team, anyway.

They aren't trading Devers. They have literally no one to play 3rd if they do. They aren't trading Mookie as they may end up treading water with that move (never mind an additional cost) and he's not likely to be cheap enough for long enough to make Jeter bite.

The Marlins will want mostly prospects, not established young players who will be expensive relatively soon. The Sox have no chance.

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A year ago the Marlins had two franchise centerpiece players, now all they have is Stanton. They need to trade him, not just to get out from under his contract but also because they need to bring in multiple young talented players to fill some of their many holes. At least one player coming back must be a proven ML-level talent that they can promote to their fans. They can't risk trading for just prospects, all of whom may not become much of anything. It would be a PR nightmare and kill attendance/merchandising for the immediate future.

If it was a salary dump, the Marlins wouldn't care about what they got in return. That is simply not the case, he will require a great deal of talent in return.

There's only 3 players in MLB that I would trade one of Mookie/Benny/Devers for, and Stanton is one of them.

Yes, the Yankees have plenty of young talent to trade for Stanton. I wonder though, how will the Marlins fanbase react to a trade of Stanton to the Yankees? If it seems like Jeter didn't get enough for him, you know they'll be suspicious.

m0ckduck said:

Actually, who is third on the list of Sox managers in the last 50 years? It's Francona... big gap... Farrell... then... who, Jimy Williams? Kevin Kennedy? Slim pickins.

Caveat: I don't know anything about the pre-Ralph Houk era, manager-wise.

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The old-timers loved Dick Williams.

m0ckduck said:

Actually, who is third on the list of Sox managers in the last 50 years? It's Francona... big gap... Farrell... then... who, Jimy Williams? Kevin Kennedy? Slim pickins.

Caveat: I don't know anything about the pre-Ralph Houk era, manager-wise.

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I suspect Dick Williams would be high on any list, even though it was only 3 years. Others can decide his actual influence, but those 3 years were the hinge between a long run of futility and much better things.

Williams, Francona, Farrell, Houk and Johnson (since 1967)

steveluck7 said:

I might be conflating stories a bit here but wasn't there a bit in Seth Mnookin's Feeding the Monster about how when HWL took over the team, in that first series of the year against TB and Grady employed the "bullpen by committee" and the Rays hit a walk off HR, one of the owners leaned over to another and said something like "can we fire him yet?"

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It was during Game 7 against the Yankees. Henry wondered allowed whether they had the authority/ability to walk right onto the field and fire him mid-game.

Red(s)HawksFan said:

No he wasn't.

That one instance was a convenient one for the media and fans to latch on to, but management wanted Little gone long before he left Pedro in a few batters too long.

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There's an old article that's been lost in the ether, but Henry and Co. wanted to fire Little that summer. A particular example, the Sox advance scouting had been following Nick Johnson's rehab from injury, and his return to the lineup, quite closely. By late August he had adjusted his swing to have more of an uppercut, and this was stressed in their report as it would completely change the way you'd need to pitch to him. Grady tossed the scouting report in the trash.

Red Sox were 3.5 games behind at this point, and needed every advantage they could get. In game 2 of the series, Johnson would go 4-5 with 4 RBI, in a game the Yankees won by 3 runs. This was more of a pattern about Grady: they'd pour tons of time and effort into statistical and classical scouting reports, only to have the buffoon completely disregard them, trusting his stupid, stupid gut. This is the clown that had the Sox working with a shortened bullpen to begin with in Game 7 because Scott Williamson, who had been nearly lights-out all postseason, had a cold sore. The team's season on the line, and Huckleberry Hound suddenly morphs into Dr. Phil.

If the Yankees lose tonight and fire Girardi, I'd like to see him in Boston. He has handled a high-pressure environment well, and most years he's shown he knows how to get the most out of the talent he has.

I feel for Farrell but if I am DD, this was his chance to get his own guy and he took it. Is it as simple as that?

Did any writer have the guts to ask Dave Dombrowski what role his trade of a 30-HR starting 3B for an injured middle reliever played in this season's outcome?

Or whether John Farrell would still have been fired if the relief ace that Dave Dombrowski had traded 4 prospects to obtain hadn't shit his pants in the highest leverage situation he's been placed in since the trade?

Any discussion of how the Red Sox have at most 2 top 100 prospects left while the Yankees might have 10?

Farrell was a very average manager. Like Al Nipper, that makes me very skittish about who they'll get to replace him. I have a hard time believing some septgenarian like Leyland or a neophyte like Cora or Varitek, or a "second chance" like Ausmus are any better than a coin flip odds to be better than Farrell.

No manager is going to close the talent gap between the Red Sox and the teams still alive in the playoffs. That's DD's job. So far, all he's done is decimate a top farm system to acquire a closer who doesn't want to pitch multiple innings, a number 1 starter for April through August who turns into a #4 around Labor Day, and an injured middle reliever, while spending $31 million a year on another former top starter who probably needs Tommy John surgery.

As someone said in another thread, by firing Farrell, DD has placed himself on the hot seat.

RedOctober3829 said:

This should have legs as we know the local beat reporters can't get any scoops.


Red Sox will go through the process of interviewing candidates, but Alex Cora--with Red Sox history--may well emerge as next Boston skipper.

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700 ABs over 3 seasons isn't really some long connection with club.

But man, take a look at his stats (which have nothing to do with him being a good manager or not)--1 season with OPS+ over 100, but he lasted 14 seasons in the majors. Guess he was a hell of a clubhouse guy.

Plympton91 said:

Did any writer have the guts to ask Dave Dombrowski what role his trade of a 30-HR starting 3B for an injured middle reliever played in this season's outcome?

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Unless you expect your GM to predict the future, this is a stupid take. Shaw was a 16 HR guy in over 500 PA and Thornburg was not injured.

DrewDawg said:

Unless you expect your GM to predict the future, this is a stupid take. Shaw was a 16 HR guy in over 500 PA and Thornburg was not injured.

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That's part of the job description isn't it? That's what you're doing when you make a trade. There's a probability disrribution around potential outcomes, and GM's need to be better than average at getting those probabilities correct so that when you aggregate over the many moves they make, the balance is significantly positive st present value of WAR received.

Joe Sixpack said:

Are there a lot of those? I don't think I've ever heard anyone make that claim.

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That no one could be worse than Farrell?

There was a lot of that sentiment in the Farrell Watch thread the last few days. Same on Twitter.

Give me Alex Cora. Even when he was playing in Boston broadcasters, journalists, players, etc would gush over how destined he was to be a future manager.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

P91, there's a decent argument to be made that Kimbrel shit his pants because Farrell had babied him and hadn't used him in multiple inning situations in a very long time, given that he looked so unprepared in Game 4.

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... really?

When Kimbrel sucked and couldn't spot a fastball to save his life during his FIRST inning of work, was this due to the fact that he was already nervously thinking about his hypothetical second inning of work?

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

He was in the game earlier than usual, hadn't gotten up in the pen that early in a couple of months, had only 1 appearance of more than one inning over the last couple of months of the season (and that was for only 1.1 innings). He didn't look ready from the outset and it's fair to wonder if he wasn't ready because he hadn't been practicing coming into the game that early.

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The poor mistreated 8-figure salaried athlete. Good grief. You've been doing a grade-A troll on this issue all week though. Kudos.

Marbleheader said:

Probably shouldn't hire a former pitcher as manager again. Over a century of data, with a few exceptions like Lasorda and Walter Johnson, for whatever reason it doesn't work.

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I'd put Bud Black in there as well. He's under .500 but certainly not a terrible manager. Brought the Rockies out of nowhere to make the playoffs and would look a hell of a lot different if he accepted the Nats lowball offer a couple years ago. Farrell worked for a little as well. Never called him terrible at all because thats not true. The team needed a new voice.

My top 5 would be

1) Hale
2) Cora
3) Girardi
4) Kapler
5) This is when it gets hazy. You can do a dark horse like Tek or throw a bunch of money at an old horse like LaRussa/Leyland to try and get them out of retirement. Maybe ask the Cards about Matheny who would probably never become available but hell why not ask. BTW I have Ausmus about 98th on my list. David Ross? Buy Kevin Cash from Tampa? I don't know.

One idea which I thought was excellent was find a way to bring Jim Hickey in as pitching coach. Obvious reasons

joe dokes said:

I suspect Dick Williams would be high on any list, even though it was only 3 years. Others can decide his actual influence, but those 3 years were the hinge between a long run of futility and much better things.

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Williams also won two WS titles in Oakland, and is a hall of famer. So if the question is about who was a good manager, period (as opposed to just in Boston), he's a shoo-in.

On that theory, ask Angelos about Buck.

Might as well have some fun while we're trying to get serious business done.

czar said:

... really?

When Kimbrel sucked and couldn't spot a fastball to save his life during his FIRST inning of work, was this due to the fact that he was already nervously thinking about his hypothetical second inning of work?

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Yeah, this argument makes very little sense. For whatever people think of Farrell, I think he probably told Kimbrel "hey, be ready to come in during the 8th today". Seems like its just chalking up a bad result to being unprepared and then trying to find a reason for a bad thing happening beyond just a good pitcher was a little off and got beat by a good hitting team for a run.