Undoubtedly true. But the early small sample and the fact that Pedro got less run support than the team average in five out seven seasons makes me wonder if aces tend to get less run support than other pitchers as their teammates perhaps relax somewhat. There may be nothing to that -- probably isn't and this is just random and SSS -- but it would be interesting to see if there is a larger trend.He'll get run support.
It's 4 starts in April...
If I am going to pay money to go see a pitcher right now it would be Chris Sale! The guys brings integrity to the game!
James Shields, last season (I think, if I looked at the game logs properly). He had 4 runs scored for him in the first 4 by the Padres. The fact that Chris Sale and James Shields share this stat, just one season apart, means it's probably common and probably not an indicator of how good or bad a hitting team they are a member of or how good or bad of a pitcher they are.He's had terrible run support. I know it's only four starts now, but has anyone had worse run support in their first four starts? He should be 4-0.
Edited to reflect 4 starts now not 3.
Wasn't Felix Hernandez given the Cy based on his other stats despite a poor win-loss record?I wasn't suggesting that Sale would go 8 and 8; I was just wondering whether readers thought the voters would overlook that record (if it happened) and give him the Cy Young based on his other stats. Some sabermetrically-inclined voters may now tend to dismiss wins as a vital statistic for pitchers while the older generation in the media still thinks it is.
Let's ask Sprowl.Wasn't Felix Hernandez given the Cy based on his other stats despite a poor win-loss record?
Forgot about him. The Mariners only won 61 games that season and they did not score well for Hernandez. Of course, there were some who said while that was a victory for statheads, FIP was overlooked and the award should have gone to 6th place finisher, Cliff Lee.Wasn't Felix Hernandez given the Cy based on his other stats despite a poor win-loss record?
My guess is that the differential is probably driven by the fact that Pedro, like most #1s are typically facing opponent's #1. "Pitching duel" implies that you have two good pitchers going. And over a full season, you probably see that a lot more.Undoubtedly true. But the early small sample and the fact that Pedro got less run support than the team average in five out seven seasons makes me wonder if aces tend to get less run support than other pitchers as their teammates perhaps relax somewhat. There may be nothing to that -- probably isn't and this is just random and SSS -- but it would be interesting to see if there is a larger trend.
That probably holds more for early season match-ups than later (which might explain Sale to an extent). Between off-days and rain outs and injuries, rotations probably get more out of sync in terms of #1s matching with #1s as the season goes on. To the point that things more or less balance out by the end of the year.My guess is that the differential is probably driven by the fact that Pedro, like most #1s are typically facing opponent's #1. "Pitching duel" implies that you have two good pitchers going. And over a full season, you probably see that a lot more.
In 2010 Felix was 13-12 and won the Cy Young award. 2009 he was 19-5 and came in second. Greinke won it in 2009 when he was 16-8 with off the chart peripherals, much better than Felix's.Wasn't Felix Hernandez given the Cy based on his other stats despite a poor win-loss record?
But they still have a contingent crying over Margot.best thing about the way Sale is pitching is that the folk over at SoxProspects have stopped complaining about this trade.
embarrassing post, look in a mirrorbest thing about the way Sale is pitching is that the folk over at SoxProspects have stopped complaining about this trade.
I think if Sale pitched 230 innings with a .71 WHIP the only question is whether they'd rename it the Chris Sale award.I wasn't suggesting that Sale would go 8 and 8; I was just wondering whether readers thought the voters would overlook that record (if it happened) and give him the Cy Young based on his other stats. Some sabermetrically-inclined voters may now tend to dismiss wins as a vital statistic for pitchers while the older generation in the media still thinks it is.
Actually, he tied for vote total with Dwight Gooden (who got 1 first place vote). Both finished behind fourth place Orel Hershiser (16 and 16 ). The winner, Steve Bedrosian, pitched all of 89 innings and finished just three points ahead of the third place vote getter. I don't think there is much science behind the voting.In 1987 Nolan Ryan finished 5th in the CYA with an 8-16 record. He led the league in ERA, K, ERA+ and FIP.
Just proof at how over the map voters tended to be: Bedrosian presumably won the award given that he led the league in saves. In 1990, Thigpen broke the major league record for saves and came in 4th, in a year in which Clemens was jobbed out of the Cy Young by Bob Welch on account of his win total. Clemens led him in WAR 10.6 to 3.0, the latter of which was 7th among CYA candidates. Coincidentally, Welch led the NL in WAR in 1987, and finished 8th in voting (not that they voted with that knowledge, just think it's a funny coincidence).Actually, he tied for vote total with Dwight Gooden (who got 1 first place vote). Both finished behind fourth place Orel Hershiser (16 and 16 ). The winner, Steve Bedrosian, pitched all of 89 innings and finished just three points ahead of the third place vote getter. I don't think there is much science behind the voting.
I believe it was 2003 but man...there was a stretch of about ten games, about four of which he matched up against Mussina, where the Sox basically took the game off on offensePedro seemed to get reasonable run support overall in his Red Sox tenure. Doesn't mean there weren't stretches where he was getting Sale like support.
Here's his personal run support versus the team's runs per game average in the same season...
Year - PM - team
1998 - 5.1 - 5.41
1999 - 5.7 - 5.16
2000 - 4.5 - 4.89
2001 - 4.1 - 4.80
2002 - 6.1 - 5.30
2003 - 5.1 - 5.93
2004 - 4.9 - 5.86
I think 2000 and 2003 stick in our minds and make us remember his run support across his entire career seem much worse than it was. I mean, how do you start 29 games at the height of the Steroid Era for probably the league's best offensive team, post a 2.22 ERA, and win only 14 games??Undoubtedly true. But the early small sample and the fact that Pedro got less run support than the team average in five out seven seasons makes me wonder if aces tend to get less run support than other pitchers as their teammates perhaps relax somewhat. There may be nothing to that -- probably isn't and this is just random and SSS -- but it would be interesting to see if there is a larger trend.
Sale reminds me a lot of a poor mans Randy Johnson (not meant as an insult, the Big Unit is one of the five best pitchers of the last 40 years) because of his lanky frame, and that big lefthanded delivery coming from the side so it looks like he is pitching from first base. Also has that great slider that Johnson mixed in with his heater.One interesting comparison is that Pedro was a small guy with a compact delivery and Sale is... not. Watching the behind-the-plate camera angle, it seems almost unfair to the batter that this bull whip of an arm comes out from behind his head at different angles every time, and the ball is on the batter so quickly (Sale is listed at 6'6"; Pedro at 5'11" but he's not even that tall).
The potential downside, of course, is that I cringe when I see his delivery, thinking about the potential for his elbow or shoulder to explode one day. He has been durable, though.
2001 was a lot worse than 2000, and 2004 worse than 2003. I don't think his lack of run support is blown out of proportion at all. Assuming the "team" column also includes the Pedro games in the total, not separate from them, then the gap is a bit wider.I think 2000 and 2003 stick in our minds and make us remember his run support across his entire career seem much worse than it was.
If this trend continues, I can't wait for 2018 and 2019.Updating the Pedro/Sale debut comparison: after 4 games the two stand as follows:
In Pedro's 5th start of his Boston career (22-Apr '98 @ Det), however, he threw up a (relative) stinker: 5.1 IP 9H 4ER 3BB 7K 1HR and 1 HBP bringing his ERA up to 1.69 and with a no-decision (the Sox would win the game 8-5 by rallying from a 4-1 deficit to score 3 in the 8th and 4 in the 9th).
- Pedro 32IP 16H 3R 3ER 7BB 44K 1HR 0HBP 116BF 461 Pit 300 Str 80.3 aGSc
- Sale 29.2IP 15H 4R 4ER 6BB 42K 1HR 0HBP 108BF 425 Pit 288 Str 77.3 aGSc
This means Sale needs the following line or better next Wednesday against the MFY in order to match or move ahead of Pedro's 1st 5 games:
7 2/3 IP 7H 4ER 4BB 9K 1 HR 1 HBP 34BF 134 Pit 73 Str
(the above line would get him a GSc of 54 but he'd need a 56 - i.e. one fewer hit or two fewer walks - to match PM's aGSc)
He's not going to match the number of pitches (which is a good thing) and the 7 2/3 IP and 9K would require another very good game again but the rest of it is back to within reach of mere mortals and so well within Sale's capabilities.
Have you watched this offense? At all?? It is.... not good right now. They scored runs in 3 separate innings today. Which is apparently a big achievement because it is the same amount of innings that they had scored runs in the previous three games combined.Correction: they scored one for Sale in Toronto. Yes, it was in the 9th and he was removed for Kimbrel in the bottom of the inning, but he was still "in the game" and in line for the win due to the run so it should be counted for him.
Doesn't really change the argument, though. Insane stretch of non-support...no way it lasts much longer though.
In 2000 Pedro went 18-6 with an ERA of 1.74. The six losses were 1-0, 3-2, 3-0, 2-1, 5-3, 2-1. In those games he pitched 48 innings, never left a game mid-inning, had 60K/8BB and an ERA of 2.06. These are, again, the games he was the losing pitcher. Clemens was second in ERA at 3.70. The Red Sox finished 2.5 games out of first and were 12th in the league in runs; two of those losses were to NYY (3-0 &5-3) and there was also a 2-1 ND against NYY. Losing to Tampa Bay 1-0 while Pedro gets17Ks -and watching Manny Alexander and Andy Sheets in the lineup- was a depressing day at Fenway.Yeah it's terrible. I have anecdotal memories of the same thing happening with Pedro.
The 4.9 runs per game the 2000 Red Sox averaged was good for 12th in the AL and 20th overall. In 2016, that same mark would have been good for 2nd in the AL and 4th overall. Amazing how much things have changed.In 2000 Pedro went 18-6 with an ERA of 1.74. The six losses were 1-0, 3-2, 3-0, 2-1, 5-3, 2-1. In those games he pitched 48 innings, never left a game mid-inning, had 60K/8BB and an ERA of 2.06. These are, again, the games he was the losing pitcher. Clemens was second in ERA at 3.70. The Red Sox finished 2.5 games out of first and were 12th in the league in runs; two of those losses were to NYY (3-0 &5-3) and there was also a 2-1 ND against NYY. Losing to Tampa Bay 1-0 while Pedro gets17Ks -and watching Manny Alexander and Andy Sheets in the lineup- was a depressing day at Fenway.
I was at that game. I remember the fans cheering when a Tampa pop-up down the left-field line drifted away from the Sox fielder and into the stands so that Pedro had a chance at another K. It was an early-season game, sure, but it was unusual to see the fans cheering against the best interests of the team. Pedro was historic at that time, however...Losing to Tampa Bay 1-0 while Pedro gets17Ks -and watching Manny Alexander and Andy Sheets in the lineup- was a depressing day at Fenway.
Yes, and they did lower the mound after the 1968 season.The run scoring environments are totally different though.
In 1968 each team scored an average of 3.42 runs per game the lowest scoring of the past century.
In 99/00 the average team scored over 5 runs per game, you have to go back to 1930 to find another year with that much scoring.
This year so far the number is 4.39, pretty much right in between those two outliers.
To sum up, Pedro was god. Not a god, just god.
Ben Lindbergh mentions that Sale and Sandy have a good thing going onThe thing with Sale is he has variations on every pitch that don't even make sense. It's like a video game.
He throws the slider for strikes, he burries the slider, he throws one slower with more break, and he throws one harder with less break. He makes one pitch 4 different pitches. He throws his fastball inside at 91 one pitch, he throws his fastball high away at 97 the next. It's just insane. By far the most impressive thing I've seen is the variation pitch to pitch on what he's throwing and he's absolutely filling up the zone with all of it. These guys have no chance. You just gotta sit on a pitch and hope that's what he's throwing. Chances are he isn't though.
I will also add. Sandy Leon is calling a great game. He'll double up on any one pitch and isn't scared to go off speed early. Many times yesterday Toronto was 0-2 and hadn't seen a fastball, only to be blown away the next pitch. Truly Pedro esque in that regard.
Interesting idea. How does your ASG work with four leagues?I want to see MLB add two teams and reform itself to four 8-team leagues who never play each other until the regular season ends (except for the All-Star Game).
Must admit I hadn't thought about that. Two leagues against two leagues? Rotate which ones play which by year?Interesting idea. How does your ASG work with four leagues?
It's the highest praise.Is this considered a HOTTAKE?
Pedro MartinezVerified account @45PedroMartinez 34m34 minutes ago
Chris Sale is already surpassing everything I've done
But enough about your video game character...Sale, the basics: 37.2 ip, 7.2 ip/start, 23 h, 6 r, 5 er, 6 bb, 52 k, 1.19 era, 1.16 fip, 0.770 whip, 12.4 k/9
Sale, diving a little deeper:
- 2.0 bWAR
- Opponents hitting .177/.217/.215/.433
- Average game score: 75.0
- 69.3% strikes
- Run support per game: 1.9
- Fastball velocity: avg - 94.9, max - 98.6
Here is Mancini's 7th inning at-bat -- Sale gave him practically nothing fast to hit.All I know is that was an utterly filthy pitch he used to K Mancini for this 10th K of the night. How far did that pitch break?
http://m.mlb.com/video/v1345098083/balbos-sale-whiffs-mancini-to-record-10th-k-of-game/?game_pk=490487