Chris Sale to Boston for Moncada, Kopech, & 2 Prospects
- Thread starter JohnnyTheBone
- Start date
Undoubtedly true. But the early small sample and the fact that Pedro got less run support than the team average in five out seven seasons makes me wonder if aces tend to get less run support than other pitchers as their teammates perhaps relax somewhat. There may be nothing to that -- probably isn't and this is just random and SSS -- but it would be interesting to see if there is a larger trend.
James Shields, last season (I think, if I looked at the game logs properly). He had 4 runs scored for him in the first 4 by the Padres. The fact that Chris Sale and James Shields share this stat, just one season apart, means it's probably common and probably not an indicator of how good or bad a hitting team they are a member of or how good or bad of a pitcher they are.
The thing with Sale is he has variations on every pitch that don't even make sense. It's like a video game.
He throws the slider for strikes, he burries the slider, he throws one slower with more break, and he throws one harder with less break. He makes one pitch 4 different pitches. He throws his fastball inside at 91 one pitch, he throws his fastball high away at 97 the next. It's just insane. By far the most impressive thing I've seen is the variation pitch to pitch on what he's throwing and he's absolutely filling up the zone with all of it. These guys have no chance. You just gotta sit on a pitch and hope that's what he's throwing. Chances are he isn't though.
I will also add. Sandy Leon is calling a great game. He'll double up on any one pitch and isn't scared to go off speed early. Many times yesterday Toronto was 0-2 and hadn't seen a fastball, only to be blown away the next pitch. Truly Pedro esque in that regard.
He throws the slider for strikes, he burries the slider, he throws one slower with more break, and he throws one harder with less break. He makes one pitch 4 different pitches. He throws his fastball inside at 91 one pitch, he throws his fastball high away at 97 the next. It's just insane. By far the most impressive thing I've seen is the variation pitch to pitch on what he's throwing and he's absolutely filling up the zone with all of it. These guys have no chance. You just gotta sit on a pitch and hope that's what he's throwing. Chances are he isn't though.
I will also add. Sandy Leon is calling a great game. He'll double up on any one pitch and isn't scared to go off speed early. Many times yesterday Toronto was 0-2 and hadn't seen a fastball, only to be blown away the next pitch. Truly Pedro esque in that regard.
I wasn't suggesting that Sale would go 8 and 8; I was just wondering whether readers thought the voters would overlook that record (if it happened) and give him the Cy Young based on his other stats. Some sabermetrically-inclined voters may now tend to dismiss wins as a vital statistic for pitchers while the older generation in the media still thinks it is.
Back to the 1st 5 starts, Pedro received 2, 1, 5, 2 and 1 runs of support in his first 5 starts, turning the 1st and 3rd games into wins and with the Sox losing his 2nd game ND and winning his 4th and 5th game NDs. Sale's support has been 0, 1, 2 and 1 runs (with ND wins in games 1 and 4, a loss in game 2 and win in game 3).
I would characterize Sales opposing pitchers as being stronger than Pedro's to that point. Pittsburgh's Taillon now is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA 3.38 xFIP and can be characterised (IMO) as a good #2. Verlander just got roughed up in his last outing against Cle, but he's unquestionably an ace. Odorizzi is a below-average #2 starter or a pretty decent #3 at this stage of his career and Estrada looks to be re-establishing himself as an above-average starter. Sale's next start will be against Tanaka.
Pedro faced against 40 year-old Tom Candiotti in his first start in '98 (11-16 4.84 ERA 5.18 FIP that year) and next faced 35 year-old Chuck Finley (12-11 4.43 3.95). His big run support game was against 35 year-old Jamie Moyer (15-9 3.53 3.73), followed by Chuck Nagy (15-10 5.22 5.17) and Justin Thompson (11-15 4.05 4.06). All pretty decent pitchers but none of them great or in their best season.
edit: although Finley's 7.2 WAR that year was tied for the 2nd best of his substantial career and Moyer's 5.7 WAR was his 2nd best in 25 seasons played.
I would characterize Sales opposing pitchers as being stronger than Pedro's to that point. Pittsburgh's Taillon now is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA 3.38 xFIP and can be characterised (IMO) as a good #2. Verlander just got roughed up in his last outing against Cle, but he's unquestionably an ace. Odorizzi is a below-average #2 starter or a pretty decent #3 at this stage of his career and Estrada looks to be re-establishing himself as an above-average starter. Sale's next start will be against Tanaka.
Pedro faced against 40 year-old Tom Candiotti in his first start in '98 (11-16 4.84 ERA 5.18 FIP that year) and next faced 35 year-old Chuck Finley (12-11 4.43 3.95). His big run support game was against 35 year-old Jamie Moyer (15-9 3.53 3.73), followed by Chuck Nagy (15-10 5.22 5.17) and Justin Thompson (11-15 4.05 4.06). All pretty decent pitchers but none of them great or in their best season.
edit: although Finley's 7.2 WAR that year was tied for the 2nd best of his substantial career and Moyer's 5.7 WAR was his 2nd best in 25 seasons played.
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Wasn't Felix Hernandez given the Cy based on his other stats despite a poor win-loss record?
Forgot about him. The Mariners only won 61 games that season and they did not score well for Hernandez. Of course, there were some who said while that was a victory for statheads, FIP was overlooked and the award should have gone to 6th place finisher, Cliff Lee.
What do you do? You have the old-time writers who have their set of standards and the sabermetricians with theirs, but you also have arguments among groups of sabermetricians about which analytics to use. And not only that but you may have the same stat calculated by two different methods.
My guess is that the differential is probably driven by the fact that Pedro, like most #1s are typically facing opponent's #1. "Pitching duel" implies that you have two good pitchers going. And over a full season, you probably see that a lot more.
That probably holds more for early season match-ups than later (which might explain Sale to an extent). Between off-days and rain outs and injuries, rotations probably get more out of sync in terms of #1s matching with #1s as the season goes on. To the point that things more or less balance out by the end of the year.
I looked at Pedro's opposing pitchers for 2004, only because that was the largest deficit between his run support and the team's overall average. In 33 starts, he faced Roy Halladay and Ted Lilly three times; Sidney Ponson, CC Sabathia, Erik Bedard, Jeremy Bonderman, and Mike Mussina twice; and Javier Vazquez, Joaquin Benoit, Joel Pineiro, Jarrod Washburn, David Wells, Hideo Nomo, Noah Lowry, Paul Abbott, Brad Halsey, Mark Redman, Kelvim Escobar, Johan Santana, Mark Hendrickson, John Wasdin, Tim Hudson, Scott Kazmir, and Doug Waechter once each.
I'd say that's 9 starts against ace caliber guys (Halladay, Sabathia, Santana, and Mussina), and another 8 against guys who I think at the time were seen as #1/#2 types (Ponson, Vazquez, Lilly, Washburn, Escobar, and Kazmir). The rest are a mix of middle of the rotation guys, past their prime guys, and scrubs/eventual relievers. So roughly half his outings were against relatively high quality opposing pitchers. Wouldn't surprise me to find that Derek Lowe and Bronson Arroyo had similar profiles that year (I'm short of time to comb through their seasons too).
Perhaps a theory with as much merit (but a lot less empirical evidence) as facing more "#1s" is that by virtue of being Pedro or Sale, they bring out stronger performances from opposing pitchers regardless of that pitcher's skill level. Maybe knowing they need to be on point to keep up pushes them to above average results.
In 2010 Felix was 13-12 and won the Cy Young award. 2009 he was 19-5 and came in second. Greinke won it in 2009 when he was 16-8 with off the chart peripherals, much better than Felix's.
In 1987 Nolan Ryan finished 5th in the CYA with an 8-16 record. He led the league in ERA, K, ERA+ and FIP.
best thing about the way Sale is pitching is that the folk over at SoxProspects have stopped complaining about this trade.
I think if Sale pitched 230 innings with a .71 WHIP the only question is whether they'd rename it the Chris Sale award.
Actually, he tied for vote total with Dwight Gooden (who got 1 first place vote). Both finished behind fourth place Orel Hershiser (16 and 16 ). The winner, Steve Bedrosian, pitched all of 89 innings and finished just three points ahead of the third place vote getter. I don't think there is much science behind the voting.
Just proof at how over the map voters tended to be: Bedrosian presumably won the award given that he led the league in saves. In 1990, Thigpen broke the major league record for saves and came in 4th, in a year in which Clemens was jobbed out of the Cy Young by Bob Welch on account of his win total. Clemens led him in WAR 10.6 to 3.0, the latter of which was 7th among CYA candidates. Coincidentally, Welch led the NL in WAR in 1987, and finished 8th in voting (not that they voted with that knowledge, just think it's a funny coincidence).
One interesting comparison is that Pedro was a small guy with a compact delivery and Sale is... not. Watching the behind-the-plate camera angle, it seems almost unfair to the batter that this bull whip of an arm comes out from behind his head at different angles every time, and the ball is on the batter so quickly (Sale is listed at 6'6"; Pedro at 5'11" but he's not even that tall).
The potential downside, of course, is that I cringe when I see his delivery, thinking about the potential for his elbow or shoulder to explode one day. He has been durable, though.
The potential downside, of course, is that I cringe when I see his delivery, thinking about the potential for his elbow or shoulder to explode one day. He has been durable, though.
I believe it was 2003 but man...there was a stretch of about ten games, about four of which he matched up against Mussina, where the Sox basically took the game off on offense
Completely infuriating
I think 2000 and 2003 stick in our minds and make us remember his run support across his entire career seem much worse than it was. I mean, how do you start 29 games at the height of the Steroid Era for probably the league's best offensive team, post a 2.22 ERA, and win only 14 games??
To the extent aces actually do get less run support, I think the likely causes are, in order: (1) slightly more matchups against the other team's best pitchers, especially early in the season; (2) slightly better focus by the opposing pitcher, who knows he needs to pitch well to give his team a chance; (3) managers using the ace's start to get ABs for bench players; and (4) slightly less focus at the dish from the ace's teammates.
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Sale reminds me a lot of a poor mans Randy Johnson (not meant as an insult, the Big Unit is one of the five best pitchers of the last 40 years) because of his lanky frame, and that big lefthanded delivery coming from the side so it looks like he is pitching from first base. Also has that great slider that Johnson mixed in with his heater.
2001 was a lot worse than 2000, and 2004 worse than 2003. I don't think his lack of run support is blown out of proportion at all. Assuming the "team" column also includes the Pedro games in the total, not separate from them, then the gap is a bit wider.
... and if Moreland were to continue at his present pace he would end up with 162 starts and 181 strike outs, but with an OPS of 0.936, and 105 doubles. Projecting from small sample sizes is, um, what's the right word?
Runs scored for Chris Sale while he's been in the game:
vs Pit: Sale: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 7 k; Sox score 0 runs
vs Det: Sale: 7.2 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 10 k; Sox score 1 run
vs TB: Sale: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 12 k; Sox score 2 runs
vs Tor: Sale: 8.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 13 k; Sox score 0 runs
vs NY: Sale: 8.0 ip, 8 h, 3 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 10 k; Sox score 0 runs
So in five games, the Red Sox have scored a total of *3* runs while Chris Sale has been in the game. He's had five straight absolute freaking stud outings and easily should be 5-0, but instead he's 1-2 and probably wondering just what in the hell he did in a previous life to deserve this.
vs Pit: Sale: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 7 k; Sox score 0 runs
vs Det: Sale: 7.2 ip, 5 h, 2 r, 2 er, 1 bb, 10 k; Sox score 1 run
vs TB: Sale: 7.0 ip, 3 h, 1 r, 1 er, 3 bb, 12 k; Sox score 2 runs
vs Tor: Sale: 8.0 ip, 4 h, 0 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 13 k; Sox score 0 runs
vs NY: Sale: 8.0 ip, 8 h, 3 r, 2 er, 0 bb, 10 k; Sox score 0 runs
So in five games, the Red Sox have scored a total of *3* runs while Chris Sale has been in the game. He's had five straight absolute freaking stud outings and easily should be 5-0, but instead he's 1-2 and probably wondering just what in the hell he did in a previous life to deserve this.
Correction: they scored one for Sale in Toronto. Yes, it was in the 9th and he was removed for Kimbrel in the bottom of the inning, but he was still "in the game" and in line for the win due to the run so it should be counted for him.
Doesn't really change the argument, though. Insane stretch of non-support...no way it lasts much longer though.
Doesn't really change the argument, though. Insane stretch of non-support...no way it lasts much longer though.
Have you watched this offense? At all?? It is.... not good right now. They scored runs in 3 separate innings today. Which is apparently a big achievement because it is the same amount of innings that they had scored runs in the previous three games combined.
Can it be better? Sure... probably. Right now, I'm not positive about that though.
Thing is, the offense doesn't even have to get better overall for the run of anemic run support for Sale to end. Four runs of support in five starts is far more of a fluke and bad timing than indicative of a larger problem. Even for a team averaging 3.77 runs per game, 0.80 runs per game in one pitcher's starts is unlikely to continue. They will score for Sale. No doubt about it.
In 2000 Pedro went 18-6 with an ERA of 1.74. The six losses were 1-0, 3-2, 3-0, 2-1, 5-3, 2-1. In those games he pitched 48 innings, never left a game mid-inning, had 60K/8BB and an ERA of 2.06. These are, again, the games he was the losing pitcher. Clemens was second in ERA at 3.70. The Red Sox finished 2.5 games out of first and were 12th in the league in runs; two of those losses were to NYY (3-0 &5-3) and there was also a 2-1 ND against NYY. Losing to Tampa Bay 1-0 while Pedro gets17Ks -and watching Manny Alexander and Andy Sheets in the lineup- was a depressing day at Fenway.
The 4.9 runs per game the 2000 Red Sox averaged was good for 12th in the AL and 20th overall. In 2016, that same mark would have been good for 2nd in the AL and 4th overall. Amazing how much things have changed.
Hanley seems to be coming around, and I don't think we'll continue to get no production from Pedroia, so there's cause for optimism.
Third base is likely going to be our biggest issue going forward, but if everyone else performs to near expectations, we should be fine.
I was at that game. I remember the fans cheering when a Tampa pop-up down the left-field line drifted away from the Sox fielder and into the stands so that Pedro had a chance at another K. It was an early-season game, sure, but it was unusual to see the fans cheering against the best interests of the team. Pedro was historic at that time, however...
Bob Gibson had an ERA of 1.12 in 1968 and still lost 9 games. He went 22-9 overall though, which would take the sting out quite a lot. He had a stretch of 4 losses early in the season with scores of 3-2, 1-0, 2-0 and 3-1. Then the Cards started scoring runs for him and he reeled off 12 straight. That stretch included 5 straight CGSHOs. Damn. Pedro and Bob could probably share a few yarns about non-support.
The run scoring environments are totally different though.
In 1968 each team scored an average of 3.42 runs per game the lowest scoring of the past century.
In 99/00 the average team scored over 5 runs per game, you have to go back to 1930 to find another year with that much scoring.
This year so far the number is 4.39, pretty much right in between those two outliers.
To sum up, Pedro was god. Not a god, just god.
In 1968 each team scored an average of 3.42 runs per game the lowest scoring of the past century.
In 99/00 the average team scored over 5 runs per game, you have to go back to 1930 to find another year with that much scoring.
This year so far the number is 4.39, pretty much right in between those two outliers.
To sum up, Pedro was god. Not a god, just god.
Ben Lindbergh mentions that Sale and Sandy have a good thing going on
https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-boston-red-sox-chris-sale-early-trade-returns-52782680003a
According to Red Sox vice president of pitching development (and assistant pitching coach) Brian Bannister, Sale is a go-with-the-flow sort of starter who lets his catchers take control. “Chris’s approach is to throw whatever the catcher calls because he feels that he can beat a hitter with any of his pitches if he simply executes,” Bannister says via email. “He’d rather keep a good rhythm and stay aggressive on the mound than overthink the situation.”
This season, Sale’s catcher has been Sandy León. “The change in his pitch percentages is more likely a result of Sandy, who has a knack for mixing creatively, coming up with different sequences than Chris has thrown in the past, and to a lesser extent a byproduct of our organizational pitching philosophies in general,” Bannister says.
And speaking of pitch variations and Bannister - this is what Bannister taught Rich Hill- turn the curveball into 10 pitches. Did Sale always vary his pitiches like this, or could Bannister be at work here as well?This season, Sale’s catcher has been Sandy León. “The change in his pitch percentages is more likely a result of Sandy, who has a knack for mixing creatively, coming up with different sequences than Chris has thrown in the past, and to a lesser extent a byproduct of our organizational pitching philosophies in general,” Bannister says.
When you look at scoring by season before inter-league play, you probably should at runs per game on a league basis as yearly the leagues didn't always track closely. For example, in 1931 the NL batting average dropped 26 points and its rpg was 4.48 while in the AL it was 5.14 rpg.
Back in the days when there were two league but no divisions, one team played the others an equal number of games but when divisions and then inter-league play were added, the "purity" of the stats was diminished...a team plays so many games against one group of opponents whose stats basically were compiled against a certain set of teams, another groupwith stats compiled agaisnt teams that had beeter (or worse) pitching, etc.
I want to see MLB add two teams and reform itself to four 8-team leagues who never play each other until the regular season ends (except for the All-Star Game).
Back in the days when there were two league but no divisions, one team played the others an equal number of games but when divisions and then inter-league play were added, the "purity" of the stats was diminished...a team plays so many games against one group of opponents whose stats basically were compiled against a certain set of teams, another groupwith stats compiled agaisnt teams that had beeter (or worse) pitching, etc.
I want to see MLB add two teams and reform itself to four 8-team leagues who never play each other until the regular season ends (except for the All-Star Game).
Must admit I hadn't thought about that. Two leagues against two leagues? Rotate which ones play which by year?
What the heck does the last two posts have to do with Chris Sale? Start another thread with your expansion ideas.
Sale, the basics: 37.2 ip, 7.2 ip/start, 23 h, 6 r, 5 er, 6 bb, 52 k, 1.19 era, 1.16 fip, 0.770 whip, 12.4 k/9
Sale, diving a little deeper:
- 2.0 bWAR
- Opponents hitting .177/.217/.215/.433
- Average game score: 75.0
- 69.3% strikes
- Run support per game: 1.9
- Fastball velocity: avg - 94.9, max - 98.6
Sale, diving a little deeper:
- 2.0 bWAR
- Opponents hitting .177/.217/.215/.433
- Average game score: 75.0
- 69.3% strikes
- Run support per game: 1.9
- Fastball velocity: avg - 94.9, max - 98.6
....which should not, indeed, be mentioned, since given the sample size to date it would only have taken one more homer to double it, sending it into still excellent but no longer insane territory. My bad.
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Is this considered a HOTTAKE?
Pedro MartinezVerified account @45PedroMartinez 34m34 minutes ago
Chris Sale is already surpassing everything I've done
Pedro MartinezVerified account @45PedroMartinez 34m34 minutes ago
Chris Sale is already surpassing everything I've done
It's the highest praise.
As an honest answer to your question: of course it's a hot take. It's a gracious move, but it's also lazy. Sale's first starts are comparable to Pedro's 1998, but "everything" includes 1999 and 2000.
It's a pleasure to watch Sale pitch. Let's enjoy the ride.
All I know is that was an utterly filthy pitch he used to K Mancini for this 10th K of the night. How far did that pitch break?
http://m.mlb.com/video/v1345098083/balbos-sale-whiffs-mancini-to-record-10th-k-of-game/?game_pk=490487
http://m.mlb.com/video/v1345098083/balbos-sale-whiffs-mancini-to-record-10th-k-of-game/?game_pk=490487
Here is Mancini's 7th inning at-bat -- Sale gave him practically nothing fast to hit.
First Sale throws three changeups down and out of the zone, then a backdoor slider that stayed outside. That slider didn't have much movement on it.
On pitch 5, Sales throws a 97 mph sinker down the heart of the plate - Mancini fouls it off. Pitch 6 is another changeup up and in, also fouled off. Pitch 7 is the sweeping slider: 7" of horizontal cut, ending up 7" inside.
