Obviously a Brady guy. But if not him, Rodgers over Ryan. With what Rodgers overcame, with that fractured damaged team that was forced to play a WR at RB? There are very few reasons I can justify Ryan over Rodgers.
2016 NFL MVP Race
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There isn't really a ballot though, just a single vote. I agree he'd have no chance in an MLB-style vote precisely because some voters would leave him off entirely.
But here? You could have half the voters eliminate him without a second thought and he could win it still because this vote looks to be so divided. 20 votes out of 50 could win this thing, potentially.
I hope Brady doesn't win the NFL MVP because you just know that his agent will use it as leverage while negotiating his next contract.
The only way Brady will ask for more money is if he and Giselle divorce. It was a joke.
Love the Brady salary joke, but don't you think NOT getting MVP is a bit more fuel for his FU tour fire? Maybe that's like infinity + 1 instead of infinity, but I love Brady being out to prove something to the league that wronged him. No better narrative than TB not getting the MVP but nonetheless getting another ring.
Wait, is this Brady's last season?
I'm well aware MVP is announced post-SB. Still love the narrative of him getting the hardware that counts.
One of the reasons to justify Ryan over Rodgers would be the sheer volume of stats that favor Ryan. He leads in pretty much every category except for TD's (trails 40-38). I realize 40 is cool looking number for TD passes, but that 9.26 yds/att from Ryan is just amazing.
He also finished with the 5th highest single season QB rating ever at 117.1
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_rating_single_season.htm
I would give it to Ryan over Rodgers, but Rodgers play at the end of the year got him to third (behind Ryan and Brady) in my opinion.
I do realize that Rodgers will probably win though.
Rodgers was a big reason for the Packers' slow start, so it bothers me immensely that he's getting all the credit for taking them to the playoffs. I don't see how a QB on a 10-6 team in a bad division can win the MVP without blowing the rest of the field away statistically, which Rodgers certainly didn't do this season. If he gets it, it'll be embarrassing, especially considering how good a candidate Ryan is.
I agree. I do not see the logic in rewarding Rodgers for being so good later in the season when he had to make up for how bad he was to begin the season.
Isn't Ryan a QB on an 11-5 team in a bad division? Is that one win a huge divider between them?
One more win despite a lousy defense (worse than GB) and below-average pass protection? Sure
Could you put those goalposts down for a minute? Other people might want to use them.
A 13 point difference in passer rating is considerable. Ryan is having one of the greatest statistical seasons a QB has ever had, has won more games, and didn't underperform to start the season and put his team in a hole. His MVP case is a lot stronger than Rodgers's.
Ryan has Rodgers beat in pretty much every conventional passer stat, plus advanced ones like DVOA (not really close there).
The case for Rodgers is grounded in the fact that Ryan plays his home games in a dome, but Ryan's home/road splits are negligible.
The actual case for Rodgers, if we're being honest, is grounded in the fact that he's much higher profile and has appeared in a bunch of commercials.
The case for Rodgers is grounded in the fact that Ryan plays his home games in a dome, but Ryan's home/road splits are negligible.
The actual case for Rodgers, if we're being honest, is grounded in the fact that he's much higher profile and has appeared in a bunch of commercials.
I absolutely think Ryan deserves the award...but did he have below-average pass protection? Alex Mack was a massive difference to the offense, and the Falcons were the only team in the NFL who had the same set of offensive linemen start all 16 games. I think a fair amount of Ryan's improvement this year - and one reason I don't think he's as likely to turn in a substandard playoff performance this year like he may have in the past - can be traced to the improvement in his pass protection from "dumpster fire" to at least average, or perhaps even better than average.
Maybe a worse defense and probably worse pass protection than Rodgers, but only by a little. Green Bay's defense was awful much of the season; they actually ranked 29th in points allowed per drive. They allowed 18 fewer points than Atlanta's, but 14 of that was on Ryan (while Rodgers didn't throw any pick-sixes; in fact, Rodgers has only thrown one pick-six in his career). Green Bay has one of the best OLs in the league, but Ryan's protection was much improved.
Ryan also plays his home games in a dome, rarely plays in inclement weather (I think his lowest temperature game this year was in the 50's), has a far superior running game, and has Julio Jones. Yep, I know Jones missed two games.
OK, that's fine. But you made it sound like Rodgers' circumstances (QB on a 10-6 team in a bad division) were borderline disqualifying, while they are nearly identical to Ryan's.
Bottom line: Ryan's a reasonable candidate and it won't bother me if he wins. I don't have any issue with Rodgers or Brady winning either though.
No, I said that they are disqualifying unless the quarterback blows the rest of the field away statistically, and Rodgers doesn't meet that criteria. Ryan was the best QB in football by pretty much any metric. If Rodgers had those exact same stats and the Packers went 13-3, then his case would be a lot stronger, but as it stands I don't see a single box his 2016 performance checks that Ryan's doesn't, which makes him a bad choice for MVP, in my opinion.
Are you sure you know what moving the goalposts means?
When the difference in win/loss record in equally bad divisions is only one game, it seems perfectly reasonable to add context by examining each player's supporting cast in order to quantify how much that one win really matters (a question that was explicitly asked, btw). The debate shifted to supporting arguments regarding what kind of value should be placed on 11-5 vs 10-6.
Now, if you want to debate whose supporting cast actually was worse, that's fine. I saw a lot of GB this year, and that roster outside of Rodgers, Nelson, Matthews, and perhaps Dix is not very good (Peppers is cooked). Their secondary has also been decimated by injuries. Atlanta I'm not as familiar with, so I will defer to others.
Cute line, though.
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Well aren't you the bees knees? You definitely win the 2016 award for most arrogant poster, so I guess you can keep the goalposts.
Maybe I'm looking at this the wrong way but I'm having an almost irrational difficulty imagining Matt Ryan as the NFL MVP. It's not that I think he's a horrible quarterback – while I don't see the Falcons much due to the NFC East-centricity of national coverage in that conference, what I have seen demonstrates to me that Ryan has stretches where he can be very good. And based on the posts I'm reading here it sounds as if he's had an extraordinary season statistically.
But I'm not sure if I've ever seen Ryan carry his team the way a Brady, Rodgers, Peyton or Brees have – or even Cam did just last year. And I'm just having a hard time believing, without much in the way of visual evidence, that he's been the NFL's best player over the course of a season. To me, that he is this high in the rankings suggests, anecdotally, that it's much more about how mediocre-to-poor the rest of the league has been in 2016—something we Patriots fans have acknowledged during a 14-2 season that didn't always feel this dominant—and Brady's suspension than anything else.
But I'm not sure if I've ever seen Ryan carry his team the way a Brady, Rodgers, Peyton or Brees have – or even Cam did just last year. And I'm just having a hard time believing, without much in the way of visual evidence, that he's been the NFL's best player over the course of a season. To me, that he is this high in the rankings suggests, anecdotally, that it's much more about how mediocre-to-poor the rest of the league has been in 2016—something we Patriots fans have acknowledged during a 14-2 season that didn't always feel this dominant—and Brady's suspension than anything else.
Ryan has had the best season of any NFL QB but he doesn't feel like the MVP? Are his eyes not soft enough for you? Snark* aside, I think your post encapsulates the name-recognition effect in this type of voting.
I do agree that this season has had somewhat of a "ho-hum"-ness to it and - Brady mispension aside - I'm not really sure why.
* snark was probably uncalled for: you did start your post with the caveat "almost irrational"
Yeah, I think you are judging Ryan on past seasons. He had a great year. He deserves it.
I'm having difficulty with the rational of some of the talk (not just here) around this vote. I liken people talking about comeback wins etc to a starting pitcher giving up 4- runs in the first two innings and then dominant for the remainder of the game. His team comes back to win, and his being dominant for the remainder was a critical part of the result. The comeback might have been exciting as hell, sure. But how is that more valuable than the pitcher who was steady and maybe only gave up one run over the same nine innings, but his team won going away 7-1. I know this is a grossly imperfect analogy, but it's what I feel is going on with Ryan. I don't dislike him as a QB, but I feel like if he hadn't made the early mistakes in games (as outlined up thread) he wouldn't have needed to win from behind that he is getting so much credit for.
I also can't get behind Rogers for the early slow start on a season wide view - even though he is coming on strong now.
I can understand some of the discounting of Brady due to the missed games. A quarter of the season is a lot to miss. And he hasn't been perfect.by any means while he was back - he seemed to manage a game or two rather than dominate them. However not losing games by managing them has to be valued higher than losing games. A pitcher that scatters 8 hits and wins 4-2 or 5-1 working out of 3 jams is still better than the guy who gave up 4 in the first and then dominated the rest of the way.
If folks don't want to vote for Brady, I'd rather not see Rogers or Ryan winning 'by default'. I'd rather a running back won it, or something out of the box like the Dallas O-Line (which isn't going to happen). Ryan has had a good year and might indeed be the MVP of the Falcons, but if you gave most voters a chance to choose the starting QB for their playoff team for a game this coming Sunday - Brady wins over Ryan based solely on this years performance. It wouldn't be a landslide, but I believe Brady wins by a good amount.
Edit: "By default" is probably the wrong way to describe someone who has had a damn good year - but I'm trying to express I think he had a lesser year than Brady who's being discounted for missed games.
I also can't get behind Rogers for the early slow start on a season wide view - even though he is coming on strong now.
I can understand some of the discounting of Brady due to the missed games. A quarter of the season is a lot to miss. And he hasn't been perfect.by any means while he was back - he seemed to manage a game or two rather than dominate them. However not losing games by managing them has to be valued higher than losing games. A pitcher that scatters 8 hits and wins 4-2 or 5-1 working out of 3 jams is still better than the guy who gave up 4 in the first and then dominated the rest of the way.
If folks don't want to vote for Brady, I'd rather not see Rogers or Ryan winning 'by default'. I'd rather a running back won it, or something out of the box like the Dallas O-Line (which isn't going to happen). Ryan has had a good year and might indeed be the MVP of the Falcons, but if you gave most voters a chance to choose the starting QB for their playoff team for a game this coming Sunday - Brady wins over Ryan based solely on this years performance. It wouldn't be a landslide, but I believe Brady wins by a good amount.
Edit: "By default" is probably the wrong way to describe someone who has had a damn good year - but I'm trying to express I think he had a lesser year than Brady who's being discounted for missed games.
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True. Brady conquering time and space could/should have been the t.p.n., but I'm sure R.G. didn't want that and, for some reason, the press didn't pimp it.
The conversation at that point could have been abbreviated to:
#218: Ryan had much better stats
#219: Not only that, Rodgers' poor play put them in a hole, and even though they clawed back, the team only went 10-6, I don't see how you can give it to him unless he blew the field away statistically
#221: But Ryan only had one more win!
#222: Yeah but he had worse pass protection and defense
Fairly or unfairly, the MVP voting often seems to heavily weight team record, as well as the QB's stats. Rodderick's point was that any argument for Rodgers can be predicated on neither wins nor QB stats. It doesn't matter how many more wins the Falcons had than the Packers, just that because Rodgers was superlative by neither measure, voters don't have much of a leg to stand on to give it to him. So that reply was the first facepalm.
But then AB in #222 took the argument on a completely different tangent. Instead of arguing that other factors matter to voters, or arguing one of the other predicate points of the conversation to that point (e.g. QB stats), he basically points and says "look over there!" as if we're going to be distracted from the fact that there's no substantive argument against Rodderick's post. Nobody was talking about pass protection or defense, no columnist or talking-head that I've seen discuss the MVP subject has ever brought them up, and instead of making a case that they should matter, he cites them as if a one-liner reply was sufficient to refute the point. That's what brought my snark.
Now here we are with your reply that those factors add context. I'd first offer that Rodderick's whole point wasn't that the one-win-difference should matter a great deal, just that, because there was no advantage for Rodgers in team record (in fact, a disadvantage, however slight you consider it), you've got no real reason to overturn Ryan's presumptive win on the basis of much stronger passing stats. Secondly, if we were to correlate MVP vote share with defensive strength or pass protection, I think we'd find a positive correlation, because those things contribute to a better team with more wins, more dominant wins, and voters like that stuff, rather than considering lack of them a handicap for a QB to overcome. Go back and look at the 2003 and 2004 debates, if you can find articles - my recollection is that people favored McNair and Manning because of things like yards and TDs, not that they discounted Brady because of his defense.
Lastly, I'm no expert on line play, but FO claims to be. Their Adjusted Line Yards ranks GB slightly below average at 3.79 (#19) and ATL slightly above average at 4.09 (#10). In pass protection, GB ranks slightly above average at 5.5% (#11) and ATL slightly below average at 6.5% (#23). The teams are nearly identical in weighted defensive DVOA, which weights recent games more heavily (and ATL has improved recently while GB has regressed slightly). My read is that those factors are not a substantial difference in explaining their QBs' performance.
And I thought @Marciano490 had the best line back in #208.
My goodness, you're right, that was a real SOSH no-no. I'll declare a 24-hour self-ban as punishment.
I think you're thinking of Stafford, not Ryan. 4th-Quarter Comebacks this year:
DET: 8 (ties a record)
DAL: 5
NE: 2
ATL: 1
GB: 0
If you're looking for an argument for Brady in casual conversation, you could always go with "he had the same number of wins as Ryan, and more than Rodgers, despite playing 4 fewer games".
Clearly, someone needs to lay out the case for Matt Ryan, and while I'd rather Brady won it, I'm happy to throw a BC quarterback a bone here. Here's the traditional-stat approach:
- At 117.1, Matt Ryan had the best passer rating by a mile this year, and the 5th-best of all time (Rodgers' 2011 leads the list, and Brady's 2007 is 4th). Brady was 2nd at 112.2, and everyone else was miles behind.
- That passer rating was driven by a very high Y/A, at 9.3 (Brady 2nd at 8.2, Cousins 3rd at 8.1). The margin narrows if you go to ANY/A, which heavily weights INTs (Brady: 2, Ryan: 7, which at 1.3% is still 7th-best in the NFL), but it still favors Ryan at 9.03 to Brady's 8.81, with Rodgers way back at 7.24.
- Ryan (38) was right behind Rodgers (40) in pass TDs this year, and the same number of INTs, despite having a line that let his opponents sack him 37 times (Rodgers 35, Brady 15).
- Ryan threw for 500 more yards than his closest MVP competition, 4944 to Rodgers' 4428, despite Rodgers throwing a lot more per game (610 attempts to Ryan's 534).
- Completing 69.9% of his passes easily beats Brady's 67.4% and Rodgers' 65.7%, which helps explain why he blew them both away at yards per completion (13.3), too.
- Ryan's DYAR is way, way ahead of the competition. It's a counting stat, so Brady's time off factors in. But Ryan is at 1918, ahead of #2 Brees at 1581, with Brady 5th at 1295 and Rodgers 6th at 1251.
- In QB DVOA, which is a rate stat that adjusts for opponent quality, Ryan at 40.5% is the runaway leader, ahead of Brady at 33.8%. Prescott is 3rd at 31.5% and Rodgers, at 18.2%, is 8th.
- In per-drive stats, New England's #1 net rating is boosted considerably by having a top defense (rated 8th, 1st and 5th by yards, points and success rate, respectively), whereas Atlanta's defense is bottom-barrel by these measures (26th, 27th and 28th). That makes Atlanta's #1-across-the-board rating in offensive drive stats (yards, points and success rate) much more important (valuable?) to their team, and of course Ryan was behind all of that.
Instead of starting with W/L record and "adjusting" for quality of supporting cast, schedule strength, etc., why not just ignore W/L record altogether and look at the stuff the QB has more control over? QB wins might not be quite as bad as pitcher wins, but it's got a lot of similar problems.
Matt Ryan has pretty clearly been the league's best QB this season, by just about any comprehensive measure. Brady has been almost as good, maybe about as good (depending on how you weight weather/schedule strength/supporting cast factors), but in four fewer games/102 fewer attempts. Nobody else is close. There really isn't a good argument against Ryan besides low name recognition.
Put it this way: if Brady or Manning or Rodgers had just had the season Ryan had, they'd win the MVP unanimously.
Matt Ryan has pretty clearly been the league's best QB this season, by just about any comprehensive measure. Brady has been almost as good, maybe about as good (depending on how you weight weather/schedule strength/supporting cast factors), but in four fewer games/102 fewer attempts. Nobody else is close. There really isn't a good argument against Ryan besides low name recognition.
Put it this way: if Brady or Manning or Rodgers had just had the season Ryan had, they'd win the MVP unanimously.
The MVP award is for the regular season.
The Super Bowl MVP is for the Super Bowl.
Where do epic playoff performances that are not the Super Bowl get credited?
Point being...I can't stand when the most critical games, against the toughest opponents, great performances in which are universally accepted as being harder to attain, are overlooked as a factor when deciding seasonal MVPs in the major sports.
The Super Bowl MVP is for the Super Bowl.
Where do epic playoff performances that are not the Super Bowl get credited?
Point being...I can't stand when the most critical games, against the toughest opponents, great performances in which are universally accepted as being harder to attain, are overlooked as a factor when deciding seasonal MVPs in the major sports.
I think you make some fair points here, but I'm going to respond to a couple things.
Rodgers had two more passing TDs than Ryan, and he also had four more rushing TDs, and 250 more rushing yards. That's a significant contribution on the ground. OTOH, he ends up being kind of a glory hound because he accounting for basically all of Green Bay's touchdowns - 44 of 51. Ryan accounted for 38 of Atlanta's 58 (the Falcons also had five defensive TDs; neither Green Bay nor New England had any). Brady 28 / 51, just for completeness. I guess YMMV on whether it's more impressive to lead a better offense or to dominate scoring on a lesser offense.
One edge for Ryan is fumbling less. Rodgers had eight fumbles; Brady five in 12 games; Ryan just four. OTOH, neither Brady nor Rodgers threw a pick-six on the year, while Ryan threw two and the game-losing conversion return against KC.
Per-attempt statistics are easy to calculate, but it's often a description of the style of passing game as much as its effectiveness. Offenses that use short, quick passes as a partial substitution for the running game on early downs have lower Y/A because a five-yard gain on first down is going to drag down the number, even though it's effective. Rodgers had a lousy running game for much of the year and had to throw a ton some weeks to compensate. The irony is that in years past, Rodgers was the guy whose Y/A was inflated by not throwing short stuff. The Falcons had a top-five rushing attack this season (in total yards, expected points, and yards per carry). New England's was above-average in total yards but below-average in yards per carry. Green Bay's efficiency was good but a) they were 29th in rush attempts because they didn't have a true RB much of the year and b) that was elevated by Rodgers' own rushing performance (see below).
Sacks are partially on the QB, too. Brady's backups took nine sacks in four games. Brady is one of the best in the league at avoiding sacks, while Ryan and Rodgers are just OK in this area.
Rodgers had two more passing TDs than Ryan, and he also had four more rushing TDs, and 250 more rushing yards. That's a significant contribution on the ground. OTOH, he ends up being kind of a glory hound because he accounting for basically all of Green Bay's touchdowns - 44 of 51. Ryan accounted for 38 of Atlanta's 58 (the Falcons also had five defensive TDs; neither Green Bay nor New England had any). Brady 28 / 51, just for completeness. I guess YMMV on whether it's more impressive to lead a better offense or to dominate scoring on a lesser offense.
One edge for Ryan is fumbling less. Rodgers had eight fumbles; Brady five in 12 games; Ryan just four. OTOH, neither Brady nor Rodgers threw a pick-six on the year, while Ryan threw two and the game-losing conversion return against KC.
Even accounting (roughly) for sacks and turnovers, as ANY/A does, Ryan still comes out on top (as mentioned previously, he's at 9.03 for the season, good for 4th all time). The running game is definitely an edge for Rodgers, but I don't think it's enough to overturn Ryan's advantage in traditional passer metrics.
I think legitimate cases can be made for Ryan, Rodgers, and Brady. It all depends on the individual voter and what he deems makes a player more valuable. All three are phenomenal. All three had tremendous seasons. All three led very successful regular seasons. This is like picking between three great flavors of ice cream. There's not necessarily a "correct" answer. That's not to say that any opinion is of equal value. But each of those three guys has a very real argument, with Dak at least deserving to be in the conversation. Of course I'd like Brady to win it - he's our guy. But I can totally understand a voter picking Ryan or Rodgers. And I wouldn't have a problem if they do.
Is anyone aware of a list of the 2016 AP MVP voters? The most updated list I could find is here- https://mvpvoting.wordpress.com/ap-voters/. Will be interesting to see who publicly announces their vote between now and February 4th.
I think it's going to be Matty Ice, for basically the same reasons you think it won't be -- the voters won't want to give it to Rodgers in a season that wasn't exceptional by his standards, and they won't want to give it to a guy who played only 12 games (though there is some precedent -- Emmitt Smith won the year he held out the first two games). Also, the Falcons weren't expected to be as good as they've been, and it's not like some sort of defensive renaissance was responsible for them securing the #2 seed, so he's got the W-L angle covered too. (Yes, the Falcons were only a game better than the Packers, but GB was expected to be as good or better than that; Atlanta wasn't.)
Brady, Rodgers and Carr will each get a few votes, but I don't think it's going to be as close as the conventional wisdom supposes. As we saw last year, the voters like to give the MVP to someone new every now and then, at least when Peyton Manning isn't a plausible candidate.
Super Nomario, if Ryan was inflating his Y/A by throwing fewer short passes than Rodgers, you'd expect Rodgers to have a higher completion %, since short passes are easier to complete (this is the Sam Bradford phenomenon). But he doesn't -- Ryan's C% was 69.9, while Rodgers was 65.7, despite Ryan's Y/C being 13.3 to Rodgers' 11.0.
Rodgers may have been forced to throw short more, but he wasn't good enough at it to offset Ryan's greater performance throwing downfield.
I don't think most people have appreciated just how good Matt Ryan was this year. He finished with an ANY/A 143% better than league average, which is the 5th best since the merger, behind only Manning 04, Marino 84, Rodgers 11, and Foles 13 (a bizarre outlier in a smallish sample, 317 attempts/10 starts). That's better than Brady's 07/10, Montana's 89, Young's 94, Manning's 13, Warner's 99, etc. And that's before SOS adjustments, which would probably give Ryan an additional boost, since he played a hard schedule. ANY/A isn't everything, so you could argue with the placement -- but there shouldn't be much dispute that Matt Ryan had one of the best 10-15 or so passer seasons since the merger. In particular, having a Completion % that high with a Y/C also that high is historic.
Rodgers may have been forced to throw short more, but he wasn't good enough at it to offset Ryan's greater performance throwing downfield.
I don't think most people have appreciated just how good Matt Ryan was this year. He finished with an ANY/A 143% better than league average, which is the 5th best since the merger, behind only Manning 04, Marino 84, Rodgers 11, and Foles 13 (a bizarre outlier in a smallish sample, 317 attempts/10 starts). That's better than Brady's 07/10, Montana's 89, Young's 94, Manning's 13, Warner's 99, etc. And that's before SOS adjustments, which would probably give Ryan an additional boost, since he played a hard schedule. ANY/A isn't everything, so you could argue with the placement -- but there shouldn't be much dispute that Matt Ryan had one of the best 10-15 or so passer seasons since the merger. In particular, having a Completion % that high with a Y/C also that high is historic.