2016 NFL MVP Race
- Thread starter InstaFace
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There are a number of valid reasons to vote for Brady. Wins isn't one of them. Per PFRs SOS, the Falcons' average opponent has been four points better than the Patriots'. Also, their DSRS (PPG adjusted for SOS) has the Patriots' defense six points per game better than the Falcons'. Ryan is playing a tougher schedule while receiving a lot less help from his defense - it's not hard to figure out why Brady has the same number of wins in four fewer games. Their rate stats are really close, so I'd give the edge to Ryan now based on his volume.
Reggie Wayne on the NFL Network just now: Brady can't be the MVP because he was suspended. If we're serious about protecting The Shield, then he can's be MVP.
I wonder how he feels about Marvin Harrison's HOF case?
I wonder how he feels about Marvin Harrison's HOF case?
Saw that. He's on record as saying that and said as much. He also said "People in New England hate my guts". He's an idiot.
This topic is only going to make Pats fan mad. The media is never going to choose Brady even though he's clearly been the best player in the NFL. Some clowns will leave him off their ballots completely and others will vote for lesser players that played the full 16.
Dak is nothing close to an MVP candidate, say whatever you want about Stafford but he goes out and wins games; without having the luxury of handing the ball off 40 times a game.
Dak is nothing close to an MVP candidate, say whatever you want about Stafford but he goes out and wins games; without having the luxury of handing the ball off 40 times a game.
Please tell me you are kidding. Using QBR as anything than a punching bag for jokes?!
Edit: just to prove how insanely bad QBR is... According to that stat, Kaepernick has the 2nd best game in the past 10 years. When he was 10/16 for 164 yards, 1 TD. Rushed 7 for 54 and 2 TDs as well.
Garoppolo vs Miami this year was the 13th best game since 2006.
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Through what basis have you decided that "Total QBR" is a metric worth citing for, well, anything?
edit: he who laughs last... probably didn't type fast enough
People in here are using regular QB rating and raw yards...yet we're going to pick on total QBR?
Obviously that wasn't meant to be the only metric in the discussion. If we're going to use the "Matt Stafford story line" then Dak's is pretty good too leading his team to more wins than any QB and he's got 20 TD and only 4 INT and greater yards per attempt than everyone not named Ryan, Brady, or Kirk Cousins. I actually agree he isn't the actual MVP. Tyron Smith is probably ahead of him on his own team. But this is about who voters are going to vote for right? Not about who we actually think is most valuable. (at least that was the impression I got when people talk about value betting on Matt Ryan)
Obviously that wasn't meant to be the only metric in the discussion. If we're going to use the "Matt Stafford story line" then Dak's is pretty good too leading his team to more wins than any QB and he's got 20 TD and only 4 INT and greater yards per attempt than everyone not named Ryan, Brady, or Kirk Cousins. I actually agree he isn't the actual MVP. Tyron Smith is probably ahead of him on his own team. But this is about who voters are going to vote for right? Not about who we actually think is most valuable. (at least that was the impression I got when people talk about value betting on Matt Ryan)
That is remarkable. I'm definitely using this the next time someone brings up QBR.
Passer Rating is an open-source stat. We know how it's calculated, we know its limitations, we know it over-values % of passes that result in a touchdown, and has a weird numeric scale.
Total QBR is a black box, where ESPN tells us "LOOK AT THIS THING WE MADE! IT SAYS STUFF ABOUT QUARTERBACKS! YAY FOOTBALL!!!!!". The only reason you would be citing it is if you accept, uncritically, what ESPN tells you you should think about NFL stats, and you don't care at all about knowing the whys or the hows.
(Edited to remove excess dickishness)
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Google Charlie Batch and QBR. He used to own the single game record until it was scrubbed from the record books because of sheer embarrassment.
And the only people with a vote that would even consider using QBR in their decision making would be ones working at ESPN and even that seems dubious. (Herm Edwards seems dumb enough, bought.) literally no other AP writer with a vote would give a shit about it, because as stated, no one has any idea how it's calculated.
The NFL doesn't have a ranked system like baseball where they vote for 10 guys. They just vote for one MVP. I imagine a bunch of writers won't vote for him on principle, but he can still win with like 20 / 50 votes as long as the other 30 are divided enough. If this were baseball, he's have enough guys leaving him off completely that he'd have little chance, I agree.
Ok I've been convinced it's obscure and crappy enough not to affect hardly any voters (I honestly thought I heard Peter King reference the stat earlier this year in a radio interview...could be mistaken but even if that is true, I'm now buying the too obscure argument).
That said, i do think he has enough stats and "story line" to be in the convo now amongst voters. 3rd in rating, 4th in YPA, a shiny INT number (4), a high enough TD number (20), and the most wins. But as noted before, he's trending rapidly the wrong way so he will be out with another subpar performance...esp since Zeke continues to put up numbers and a lot of voters will probably be drawn to him as a bigger reason for the teams success.
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They're also 8-5 because Ryan hasn't made the most of his clutch opportunities:
- Loss to Seattle - fourth-quarter interception sets up game-winning FG. Had three fourth-quarter drives and produced one first down, total.
- Loss to San Diego - had a first down at the 50 with 3:41 left and a three-point lead and threw a pick, setting up San Diego for the game-tying FG. Also couldn't convert a sneak on 3rd-and-1 in OT, setting up the eventual winning score.
- Win over Packers - led a game-winning TD drive with four minutes left, hitting Sanu for the lead with 0:36 left
- Loss to Eagles - only one first down on final three drives, and that was from DPI
- Loss to Chiefs - threw touchdown to go ahead by 1 with 4:37 left (YAY), but then threw an interception returned for a TD on the two-point attempt, a play which cost the Falcons the game but doesn't even count in the stat sheet. He had a pick-six earlier in the game, too.
FWIW, clutch play isn't especially a mark for Brady this year, either, mostly because they've been ahead by enough that he hasn't had many clutch opportunities (and he failed vs Seattle in one of the few chances). That's part of why I'd give the MVP to Stafford so far.
FWIW - likely not much - ESPN's weekly poll now has Brady with a somewhat comfortable lead. But they do a ranked voting 1-5.
If I had to bet on this set of voters, I think I would bet on Zeke.
- He's on the team with the best record so he must be good.
- He's on a team that showed big improvement from last year so he must be valuable.
- He's a running back and a running back hasn't won in a long time (2012 -- Adrian Peterson, but before that 2006 -- LDT) and that doesn't seem right so it should be corrected.
- There hasn't been a rookie MVP since leather helmets (almost, Jim Brown, 1957) and that's a cool story.
So hard to tell yet, this is (right or wrong) going to go to whoever has the strongest narrative over the last three weeks. Packers win out and Aaron Rodgers plays awesome against Detroit maybe he wins. Pats finish 14-2 with Brady playing well and none of the other clutch narratives kicking up, he wins. Just nearly impossible to tell at this point, there's no clear candidate, its going to be so storyline driven.
Russo and Ira Kaufman both say they won't vote for Brady because of Deflategate and missing 4 games.
Apparently there have been multiple entities that have given the MVP over the years, even within a year.
So in 1978, the Pro Football Writers gave MVP to Earl; but the AP gave it to Terry Bradshaw.
Hence we are both right!
Terry Bradshaw was the 1978 NFL MVP.
Campbell won the MVP from the Pro Football Writers of America and the (now defunct) NEA. But Bradshaw won the Associated Press MVP, which is considered the recognized award.
Edit - Beaten to the punch by Saints Rest...
I can understand someone saying that you can't vote for a guy who missed a quarter of the season's games for whatever reason, but saying you can't vote for him because of what he did (if that's what they mean), is ridiculous. Whatever you think Tom Brady might have done, it was two years ago, the league already punished him for it and it has had absolutely zero impact on his performance this year.
Fucking morons.
Fucking morons.
Obviously, he wasn't punished enough. Time for out-of-shape writers to get their free licks in (again).
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I don't think Mad Dog gets a vote, does he? I sure hope not, considering he admits not ever reading the Wells-Pash Report.
Holy crap, crawl at the bottom of the NFLN screen just now said Stafford's 8 come from behind wins (4th quarter or any come from behind, not sure) is the most in the NFL since 1950! So, Charley Conerly, Johnny Lujack, Otto Graham, Norm van Bocklin, Bob Waterfield, whose ancient record might get broken? Probably not Graham because those Browns almost never fell behind. Anyway, that's a lot of come from behinders for Stafford and they add a lot of juice for his MVP candidacy.
Just ignore what he may have done to help put them behind the eight ball. Once there he was smart enough to extract his head from his own ass and win the game.
Yeah it's insane. The lack of objectivity amongst some of these assholes is staggering. Is it actually that difficult of a concept that something that happened two seasons ago is irrelevant to this year?
I don't think this is fair. Stafford's only thrown 7 picks and fumbled just twice, and the Lions rank 11th in points per drive and sixth in yards per drive despite the third-worst starting field position in the league. The problem is their defense stinks.
Last game he did throw two picks (including a pick-six) to put them in a hole, true, but he was playing the last three quarters with a dislocated middle finger on his throwing hand, so I cut him some slack.
Expect this to reemerge during the discussion of Brady's HoF worthiness five years after he retires. I wish I were kidding.
No he said he wouldn't vote for him because he missed 4 games. Kaufman does vote and he said the same.
Probably gets him strongly in the conversation, along with Detroit being a surprise first place in the division, and his other stats are pretty good.
I went to ESPN's QB stats page and they have them listed by yards (although you can change it to any other stat by clicking on the stat heading). Tom is way down in 22nd place because of the 4 missed games of course. That hurts.
It better be a flyspeck on a football magnitude when it comes to hall of fame. So he may not be unanimous first ballot...
And if you click on yards per game, he's second.
I think it's kind of funny people think that the voters pay such specific attention to particular stats. The NFL MVP is all about narrative. The year Brady won unanimously in 2010 he didn't even crack 4000 yards, he won because he only threw 4 picks and the team finished 14-2. His rating was great, but he didn't finish top in anything otherwise.
Ironically, narrative might be what costs him because some portion will discount him for the games lost and/or the suspension.
I think it's kind of funny people think that the voters pay such specific attention to particular stats. The NFL MVP is all about narrative. The year Brady won unanimously in 2010 he didn't even crack 4000 yards, he won because he only threw 4 picks and the team finished 14-2. His rating was great, but he didn't finish top in anything otherwise.
Ironically, narrative might be what costs him because some portion will discount him for the games lost and/or the suspension.
Also, TDs, TD%, adj yds/att, and led in DVOA, DYAR, QBR. He was clearly the best statistical QB that year.
Wow, I thought Ryan was the guy who most helped himself yesterday (still don't think Elliott will get it as a rookie). I'm going to put some money on him now that his odds are mostly unchanged. I figured Brady really needed to up the counting stats these last 3 games to get more traction.
Rodgers is 40 to 1? How do I put money on this? No TD passes yesterday but a game-winning heave, and Detroit lost, which means the Packers control their own destiny now.
They don't control their own destiny, but I agree it's worth throwing money at.