There are a number of valid reasons to vote for Brady. Wins isn't one of them. Per PFRs SOS, the Falcons' average opponent has been four points better than the Patriots'. Also, their DSRS (PPG adjusted for SOS) has the Patriots' defense six points per game better than the Falcons'. Ryan is playing a tougher schedule while receiving a lot less help from his defense - it's not hard to figure out why Brady has the same number of wins in four fewer games. Their rate stats are really close, so I'd give the edge to Ryan now based on his volume.As was pointed out, Brady has as many wins as Ryan. He may end up with more. If that happens it should go to Brady IMO
Ah, 'integrity of the game.'Reggie Wayne on the NFL Network just now: Brady can't be the MVP because he was suspended. If we're serious about protecting The Shield, then he can's be MVP.
I wonder how he feels about Marvin Harrison's HOF case?
Saw that. He's on record as saying that and said as much. He also said "People in New England hate my guts". He's an idiot.Reggie Wayne on the NFL Network just now: Brady can't be the MVP because he was suspended. If we're serious about protecting The Shield, then he can's be MVP.
I wonder how he feels about Marvin Harrison's HOF case?
Please tell me you are kidding. Using QBR as anything than a punching bag for jokes?!Dak trails only Brady in total QBR. He's def in the discussion though his trend line is bad so he may not be unless he rebounds strongly.
Through what basis have you decided that "Total QBR" is a metric worth citing for, well, anything?Dak trails only Brady in total QBR.
That is remarkable. I'm definitely using this the next time someone brings up QBR.Please tell me you are kidding. Using QBR as anything than a punching bag for jokes?!
Edit: just to prove how insanely bad QBR is... According to that stat, Kaepernick has the 2nd best game in the past 10 years. When he was 10/16 for 164 yards, 1 TD. Rushed 7 for 54 and 2 TDs as well.
Garoppolo vs Miami this year was the 13th best game since 2006.
Passer Rating is an open-source stat. We know how it's calculated, we know its limitations, we know it over-values % of passes that result in a touchdown, and has a weird numeric scale.People in here are using regular QB rating and raw yards...yet we're going to pick on total QBR?
Google Charlie Batch and QBR. He used to own the single game record until it was scrubbed from the record books because of sheer embarrassment.That is remarkable. I'm definitely using this the next time someone brings up QBR.
And the only people with a vote that would even consider using QBR in their decision making would be ones working at ESPN and even that seems dubious. (Herm Edwards seems dumb enough, bought.) literally no other AP writer with a vote would give a shit about it, because as stated, no one has any idea how it's calculated.People in here are using regular QB rating and raw yards...yet we're going to pick on total QBR?
Obviously that wasn't meant to be the only metric in the discussion. If we're going to use the "Matt Stafford story line" then Dak's is pretty good too leading his team to more wins than any QB and he's got 20 TD and only 4 INT and greater yards per attempt than everyone not named Ryan, Brady, or Kirk Cousins. I actually agree he isn't the actual MVP. Tyron Smith is probably ahead of him on his own team. But this is about who voters are going to vote for right? Not about who we actually think is most valuable. (at least that was the impression I got when people talk about value betting on Matt Ryan)
The NFL doesn't have a ranked system like baseball where they vote for 10 guys. They just vote for one MVP. I imagine a bunch of writers won't vote for him on principle, but he can still win with like 20 / 50 votes as long as the other 30 are divided enough. If this were baseball, he's have enough guys leaving him off completely that he'd have little chance, I agree.This topic is only going to make Pats fan mad. The media is never going to choose Brady even though he's clearly been the best player in the NFL. Some clowns will leave him off their ballots completely and others will vote for lesser players that played the full 16.
Ok I've been convinced it's obscure and crappy enough not to affect hardly any voters (I honestly thought I heard Peter King reference the stat earlier this year in a radio interview...could be mistaken but even if that is true, I'm now buying the too obscure argument).And the only people with a vote that would even consider using QBR in their decision making would be ones working at ESPN and even that seems dubious. (Herm Edwards seems dumb enough, bought.) literally no other AP writer with a vote would give a shit about it, because as stated, no one has any idea how it's calculated.
They're also 8-5 because Ryan hasn't made the most of his clutch opportunities:There are a number of valid reasons to vote for Brady. Wins isn't one of them. Per PFRs SOS, the Falcons' average opponent has been four points better than the Patriots'. Also, their DSRS (PPG adjusted for SOS) has the Patriots' defense six points per game better than the Falcons'. Ryan is playing a tougher schedule while receiving a lot less help from his defense - it's not hard to figure out why Brady has the same number of wins in four fewer games. Their rate stats are really close, so I'd give the edge to Ryan now based on his volume.
The winner should be Kelechi Osemele.
Hi friend: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earl_CampbellIf I had to bet on this set of voters, I think I would bet on Zeke.
Those are all stupid reasons, IMHO, but I think these voters will give them a lot of weight.
- He's on the team with the best record so he must be good.
- He's on a team that showed big improvement from last year so he must be valuable.
- He's a running back and a running back hasn't won in a long time (2012 -- Adrian Peterson, but before that 2006 -- LDT) and that doesn't seem right so it should be corrected.
- There hasn't been a rookie MVP since leather helmets (almost, Jim Brown, 1957) and that's a cool story.
Apparently there have been multiple entities that have given the MVP over the years, even within a year.
Terry Bradshaw was the 1978 NFL MVP.
They should also strip him of the wins record.Russo and Ira Kaufman both say they won't vote for Brady because of Deflategate and missing 4 games.
Obviously, he wasn't punished enough. Time for out-of-shape writers to get their free licks in (again).I can understand someone saying that you can't vote for a guy who missed a quarter of the season's games for whatever reason, but saying you can't vote for him because of what he did (if that's what they mean), is ridiculous. Whatever you think Tom Brady might have done, it was two years ago, the league already punished him for it and it has had absolutely zero impact on his performance this year.
Fucking morons.
Sports writers are cute when they try to demonstrate moral gravitas.Russo and Ira Kaufman both say they won't vote for Brady because of Deflategate and missing 4 games.
I don't think Mad Dog gets a vote, does he? I sure hope not, considering he admits not ever reading the Wells-Pash Report.Russo and Ira Kaufman both say they won't vote for Brady because of Deflategate and missing 4 games.
Yeah it's insane. The lack of objectivity amongst some of these assholes is staggering. Is it actually that difficult of a concept that something that happened two seasons ago is irrelevant to this year?I can understand someone saying that you can't vote for a guy who missed a quarter of the season's games for whatever reason, but saying you can't vote for him because of what he did (if that's what they mean), is ridiculous. Whatever you think Tom Brady might have done, it was two years ago, the league already punished him for it and it has had absolutely zero impact on his performance this year.
Fucking morons.
I don't think this is fair. Stafford's only thrown 7 picks and fumbled just twice, and the Lions rank 11th in points per drive and sixth in yards per drive despite the third-worst starting field position in the league. The problem is their defense stinks.Just ignore what he may have done to help put them behind the eight ball. Once there he was smart enough to extract his head from his own ass and win the game.
You mean "didn't happen"Yeah it's insane. The lack of objectivity amongst some of these assholes is staggering. Is it actually that difficult of a concept that something that happened two seasons ago is irrelevant to this year?
Expect this to reemerge during the discussion of Brady's HoF worthiness five years after he retires. I wish I were kidding.I can understand someone saying that you can't vote for a guy who missed a quarter of the season's games for whatever reason, but saying you can't vote for him because of what he did (if that's what they mean), is ridiculous. Whatever you think Tom Brady might have done, it was two years ago, the league already punished him for it and it has had absolutely zero impact on his performance this year.
Fucking morons.
No he said he wouldn't vote for him because he missed 4 games. Kaufman does vote and he said the same.I don't think Mad Dog gets a vote, does he? I sure hope not, considering he admits not ever reading the Wells-Pash Report.
Probably gets him strongly in the conversation, along with Detroit being a surprise first place in the division, and his other stats are pretty good.Come from behinders add a lot of juice?
It better be a flyspeck on a football magnitude when it comes to hall of fame. So he may not be unanimous first ballot...Expect this to reemerge during the discussion of Brady's HoF worthiness five years after he retires. I wish I were kidding.
Also, TDs, TD%, adj yds/att, and led in DVOA, DYAR, QBR. He was clearly the best statistical QB that year.And if you click on yards per game, he's second.
I think it's kind of funny people think that the voters pay such specific attention to particular stats. The NFL MVP is all about narrative. The year Brady won unanimously in 2010 he didn't even crack 4000 yards, he won because he only threw 4 picks and the team finished 14-2. His rating was great, but he didn't finish top in anything otherwise.
Wow, I thought Ryan was the guy who most helped himself yesterday (still don't think Elliott will get it as a rookie). I'm going to put some money on him now that his odds are mostly unchanged. I figured Brady really needed to up the counting stats these last 3 games to get more traction.Updated odds:
Brady 2/1 (33%)
Elliott 37/10 (21.3%)
Carr 4/1 (20%)
Ryan 15/2 (11.8%)
Stafford 8/1 (11%)
LeVeon Bell 17/1 (5.5%)
Wilson 20/1 (4.7%)
They don't control their own destiny, but I agree it's worth throwing money at.Rodgers is 40 to 1? How do I put money on this? No TD passes yesterday but a game-winning heave, and Detroit lost, which means the Packers control their own destiny now.