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Moneyball and the Red Sox

Tue, 09 Feb 2010 03:40:19 -0500

Forgive any rambling, please, it's late.

I've been giving this some thought and my lingering impressions of Moneyball and the concept of exploiting, basically, the idea that certain baseball skills are undervalued to build a team, may differ from many of the more statistically-inclined members of the board.

So, I'll begin by explaining what I think is, essentially, a bunch of malarkey, and hold my observations up for comment and critique.

Firstly, an aside. The impression I got from reading the book is that Billy Beane has been accorded way too much credit by the fawning author of the book for coming up with these principles in the first place. Wasn't it Sandy Alderson's baby, which he taught BB, who then ran with them after Alderson left the A's organization? Not really relevant to this discussion I hope to start, but that's always kinda irked me.

On to the meat of my argument. While I certainly believe that seeing something in a player that others overlook is a fine and valuable thing, it can be taken too far. The A's of lore, for example, focused on the under-appreciated OBP-related skills of taking pitches and, by extension, taking walks to the detriment of other usefull skills, like defense and base-running. And it got them to the playoffs for a nice little span, wherein they inevitably fell apart. Some call it a crapshoot. Having watched those games, albeit not recently, it always seemed to me though that what bit those teams in the ass was poor defense and shoddy fundamentals.

In short, sacrificing important elements of a player's skill set to load up on one facet of the game may not be the best way to go about things in the long run.

Now, the A's are a decidedly lower-revenue team, and so they may have to make such sacrifices simply because they can't afford better talent. Which brings us to the Red Sox, a team who can, in theory, afford almost anyone they want.

Is it getting too clever to look for the biggest bargain, when in fact it may not represent the best value for money? That seems counter-intuitive, but allow me to suggest that, while you may be able to buy five Honda Civics for the price of one Corvette ZR1, you're not doing yourself any favors with the former in a drag race.

Again, not to say that value-for-money, or being clever and exploiting an opportunity when it comes up aren't good things, but if you have a certain fiscal robustness, they may not be as useful as one might assume.

Moneyball tended to present "baseball people" as a bunch of dinosaurs with limited mental faculties. While no doubt such men exist, I do suspect that this stance may be a sort of pseudo-intellectual conceit, one adopted by people who are, over-all, no better equipped to handle the "baseball man's" tasks than those dinosaurs are at, say, advanced statistical modeling.

What I'm saying is, there's been a lot of World Series champion teams build before this newspeak came along, and they weren't all run by dummies.

The Sox, since JWH took the keys, have been lauded as a model franchise. Certainly, they've been massively successful both on and off the field. But they don't seem to have gotten there by playing cheap, or settling for one-dimensional, limited players as a rule. Rather the opposite, in fact.

So, I'd like to present a few of what I consider to be significant player moves during this time, with a few observations thrown in. I'm not trying to cherry-pick here, and I'd love to hear what others think on the subject, and their own player examples and observations.

2004 Red Sox trade for Curt Shilling
I don't think there was a whole lot about Curt's game that was "undervalued" at the time. They traded for an Ace, that rarest of baseball commodities. Pretty awesome deal, given Arizona was apparently feeling the pinch financially at the time. But nothing about Shilling fit the moneyball mantra, as far as I can see. A good, old-fashioned blockbuster of a trade.
Returns: World Series champions, 2004. Didn't do it all by himself, of course, but they don't do it without him.

2006 Red Sox trade for Josh f'n Beckett and Mike Lowell
Again, a wealthy team exploiting it's financial edge to land a potential Ace in return for a top-notch prospect and, essentially, money in the form of taking Lowell off their hands. Not much here that hasn't been going on for ages that I can see. Bit Yankees-esque, really. That Lowell turned out to be a nice player for several years was a nice bonus.
Returns: World series champions, 2007. Again, doesn't happen without J f'n B, and Lowell played a nice part too.

2007 Red Sox sign free agent JD Drew
While Drew has certainly been received with mixed emotions in Boston, and on this board, at 14 million/year there's no way he's a bargain. No leveraging insider insight with regards to him either, he's performed, near as I can tell, pretty much along career values. Signing free agents with wide but shallow skill sets to a lot of money, as opposed to finding a guy who does one thing well on the cheap, is definitely not moneyball.
Returns: Definitely contributed to the 2007 championship, and has played excellently, if not always appreciated for it, since coming to Boston. By most metrics pretty much earned his money to-date.

2009 Red Sox trade for Victor Martinez
Again, no hidden bargain here or sabermetrically-inspired steal. Victor was the best catching option on the market at the time.
Returns: Still early, but at least we're seeing less of the corpse of Jason Varitek behind or at the plate. That's something, right?

What I'm seeing here is that, of all the impact moves the Sox have made, none are particularly untraditional. I could see Earl Weaver being quite pleased to add Schilling or Beckett to his rotation.

Of course this list is far from complete, and I may well be wrong. So if so, tell me, and show me where I am.

Edit: Formatting.

A note of thanks........

Mon, 08 Feb 2010 10:35:59 -0500

I just want to publicly thank Traut and Rip for organising the Jimmy Fundraiser and Auction. I also would like to thank anyone else associated with it, all who donated items and cash and all who placed bids. We all know what cancer is and how it can devastate families. Thanks to the work of the Jimmy Fund, the Dana Farber Institute and those who support it, those of us who are fortunate enough to live in this part of the country have a better understanding of what cancer care, recovery and for some (hopefully more) survival can be. Even in those who may pass from the disease there are stories of hope and inspiration. We are quite blessed to have this institution in our "back yard" and as Red Sox fans, we are often exposed and updated to the wonderful work these folks are doing. It's truly a special place.

Thanks for overseing this process fellas!!!

NEW 2010 SoSH Jimmy Fund Auction Item: 2 tickets to Bos/Philly game Fri 6/11/10 (closes Mon 2/8 at 8 PM)

Sat, 06 Feb 2010 15:32:34 -0500

You are bidding on a pair of tickets to watch the Boston Red Sox-Philadelphia Phillies on Friday June 11, 2010

The seats are in GS 12, Row 11

Retail value: $104.00

Minimum bid: $150.00

Auction starts now!

Auction ends Monday, February 8, 2010 at 8 PM

Closed Auction Item.......Yoooouk

Sat, 06 Feb 2010 15:21:44 -0500

If anyone is still in the giving mood, so am I. One last trip to the MA Lottery prize vault finds this item. A Kevin Youkilis home Jersey. This item is a replica (NOT authentic), but a damn fine jersey. Just like the real deal, it's made by Majestic and EVERYTHING is sewn on. It is size XL and there is a twist. Though it's a home jersey, the name YOUKILIS is on the back and is sewn on as well. Traditionalists may scoff at a Sox home jersey with NOB, but I'm certain that any Youk fan would love to have this piece. Was going to keep this one for myself, but you SOSHers have been so generous I thought I would post this in hopes of helping to top our goal. Like my other postings, this item is brand new, never worn and still has the tags on it. The item will close at noon on Super Bowl Sunday.

Looking for an opening bid of $50.00

New Item Autographed Jim Rice Ball

Sat, 06 Feb 2010 10:40:07 -0500

Obtained straight from Jim Ed himself. Auction closes 8 pm Sunday.

Closed Auction Item.....Red Sox '07 WS Jacket

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 21:54:09 -0500

I have for bid one 2007 Boston Red Sox World Series Champion Jacket. I am offering THE JACKET ONLY from the MA State Lottery prize package link below. It is size XL, brand new with tags still on it. It is a heavier, winter weight jacket and can be seen at the very bottom of this link. I would like an opening bid of $50.00. The auction closes at noon on Super Bowl Sunday.

https://massachusetts.lotterybonuszone.com/mlb3/prizes.php

Report: Sox offer LHP Hisanori Takahashi minor league deal

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 20:47:43 -0500

Michael Silverman of the Herald

QUOTE

According to Sports Nochi, courtesy of NPB Tracker, the Red Sox are one of four teams who extended minor-league offers to veteran left-hander Hisanori Takahashi, a free agent who has pitched since 2000 for the Yomiuri Giants.

He's listed as 5-10, 172 lbs, and turns 35 on April 2.

Career Stats (Google translation)

Last year: 10-6, 2.94 ERA in 25 games, 144 IP (avg 5.8/G), 126 Ks (7.9 K/9), 36 BB (2.1 BB/9), 147 H (9.2 H/9), 3.5 K/BB, 1.27 WHIP

Career (10 years): 79-66, 3.70 ERA, 1289 IP, 7.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 8.9 H/9, 2.87 K/BB, 1.26 WHIP.

Doesn't seem to have any trouble keeping the ball in the strike zone, but he's only been moderately successful in avoiding quality contact. According to Kubatko, his best pitch is a screwball. Lefties hit .300 off him last year.

He declared free agency last November with a stated goal of playing in the majors. From MLB.com last fall:

QUOTE

"I decided I wanted to try out for the Majors three days ago," Takahashi said, according to sponichi.co.jp. "If I didn't have confidence in myself, I wouldn't have made the decision. I want to go to a team that needs me. I'd be extremely happy if I'm used as a starter."

Takahashi started Game 4 of the Japan Series against the Nippon Ham Fighters and lost, giving up five runs on six hits in five innings in an 8-4 loss. The Giants won the series, four games to two.

Takahashi said at a news conference that he wants to follow in the footsteps of former teammates Hideki Matsui and Koji Uehara. Matsui is a free agent after playing the past seven seasons with the Yankees. Uehara signed as a free agent with the Orioles in January and went 2-4 with a 4.05 ERA in 12 starts.

"It's a dream I have," Takahashi said. "And I'd like to attain that dream. Seeing Uehara in the Majors, that made me want to go to the Majors even more. I want to return to the days of being a rookie and take on this new challenge."

The Sox' offer doesn't exactly dovetail with that goal (nor does their current depth chart). However, according to Kubetko, he's viewed as a better fit for the bullpen in the majors. The Mets reportedly offered him a major league deal 2 weeks ago.

(CLOSED) NEW Jimmy Fund Auction item - Signed Jon Lester 07 WS Base Ball (ends Sun 2/7)

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 15:36:50 -0500

Donor: Me

Closes: Sunday 2/7 @ 7PM

Item: Jon Lester signed 2007 World Series Baseball

This Official World Series Baseball is signed by the winning pitcher in the World Series clintching game 4 victory and fellow cancer survivor Jon Lester.

This is from my personal collection, obtained in person by me at a Jimmy Fund event a few years ago and therefore does not have a COA.

The autograph is in blue ink, centered and is in pristine condition. The ball itself comes with a plastic display case.
I can probably include a photo if anyone is interested but in the interest of time wanted to get the auction up.

Retail: $150

Min Bid: $50

NEW Jimmy Fund Auction Items: 2 Screen Name Changes (CLOSED)

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 14:57:43 -0500

You are bidding on the opportunity to change your SoSH screen name. The two highest bidders in this thread will be able to have their screen name changed by Nip, he has final approval over whatever name you choose.

Minimum bid: $100.

Auction closes on Sunday, February 7 at 8:00pm.

Winner must pay for item within 24 hours or item will go to next highest bidder, unless other arrangements have been made. Secure payment options include MC, Visa, Discover and AMEX.

Click for payment!

NEW Jimmy Fund Auction Item: Domain & 2yrs. FREE web/email/ftp Hosting (CLOSED -- Congrats, jacksoxfan!)

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 10:46:34 -0500

Donated by: cleanfloor

You are bidding on a .com, .net, or .org domain of your choice for 2 years, as well as web hosting for 2 years.

The web hosting package is on a server colocated at the world famous DC3/NetDepot datacenter in Hotlanta, Georgia.

The terms of the package are 1GB of storage and 20GB of transfer per month.

The features include:

Storage 1GB
Bandwidth 20GB/month
Tech Support 24/7 aim/email, 9-5 phone
Subdomains Unlimited
cPanel Yes
Email Accounts Unlimited (within reason)
Pop3 Yes
Imap Yes
Sendmail Yes
Webmail Yes
SSL Shared
Shopping Cart Yes
Webalizer Stats Yes
Raw Stats Yes
PHP Yes
Perl Yes
Python Yes
Mysql Databases 10
Cgi-bin Yes
FTP Access 24/7
FTP Accounts Unlimited
Frontpage Yes
Plethora of addon scripts Yes
SSH Access Yes
PHPMyAdmin Yes

Retail Value: This package normally goes for $100 per year, and this is for two years, so $200.
Minimum Bid: $50

I'll probably give you free web hosting for life, but you'll have to pay for the domain after 2 years ($9/year)

Donor: cleanfloor
You can see similar plans going for similar dollars here: http://lightningservers.net/compare.php

Closes on Sunday 2/7 at 8PM
Happy Bidding!