Who's Out- Pats' Opt Outs for the 2020 Season

bankshot1

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Is there a QnD primer on cap impact from players opting out in 2020?

Do contracts extend by a year for a 2020 opt-out, or is the 2020 season just wiped away and the contract of a player resume in 2021 as it would have as if he played in 2020?
 

E5 Yaz

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Jeff Howe said in the article he just posted that Hightower was interested in a contract extension a few months ago. They could extend him and lower his 2021 cap number.
Before COVID ... but even at that, his interest doesn't mean the Patriots would be interested. What I said was that we've probably seen his final game as a Patriot.
 

pappymojo

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If I were Bill, I would think about signing Clowney to a one year deal just to recoup a comp pick in a couple years.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Is there a QnD primer on cap impact from players opting out in 2020?

Do contracts extend by a year for a 2020 opt-out, or is the 2020 season just wiped away and the contract of a player resume in 2021 as it would have as if he played in 2020?
A lot of discussion about that above. Miguel's feed is the best place to understand the cap implications of pretty much everything and the fact that he does it in the context of discussing the Patriots is a big bonus for us.

Some of the general principles that were hashed out above:

1. Contracts roll a year forward for opt outs. Whatever the terms were for a given year become the terms for one year later.

2. Pro-rated cap hits from prior signing bonuses or other tricks are still charged this year.

3. When the player opts out, his 2020 cap hit comes off the books for things not mentioned in 2.

4. Surprisingly, if Miguel is to be believed (a fairly good bet), 2020 will be the baseline for determining whether opted out players' incentives in 2021 are likely to be earned or not. And, because none of them will take a snap, pretty much all incentive bonuses that were due to players in 2020, who opt out, will become NLTBE in 2021. I am going to wait for more confirmation on this.

5. NFL and NFLPA have agreed that the cap won't go down by more than about $23 million max next year. This almost certainly means that they are borrowing from future years given the likely impact on revenue this year, so it will probably be several years until we're back to $200 million.

Unanswered lurking questions: What are the cap and contract impacts if a team cannot play all 16 games this year? I say unanswered in the sense that I don't know the answer and haven't seen anything super reliable to answer the question, but I assume that there actually is an answer already in the NFL/NFLPA agreement, but we just don't know it. It is a very significant question, because, especially for older players, it could really motivate the opt out decision.

Apparently, the opt out can be revoked or renegotiated. Again, I haven't seen firm reporting on that other than it was in one of the offers. What this would mean for the current year toll and salary cap is not clear (to me at least).
 

bankshot1

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A lot of discussion about that above. Miguel's feed is the best place to understand the cap implications of pretty much everything and the fact that he does it in the context of discussing the Patriots is a big bonus for us.

Some of the general principles that were hashed out above:

1. Contracts roll a year forward for opt outs. Whatever the terms were for a given year become the terms for one year later.

2. Pro-rated cap hits from prior signing bonuses or other tricks are still charged this year.

3. When the player opts out, his 2020 cap hit comes off the books for things not mentioned in 2.

4. Surprisingly, if Miguel is to be believed (a fairly good bet), 2020 will be the baseline for determining whether opted out players' incentives in 2021 are likely to be earned or not. And, because none of them will take a snap, pretty much all incentive bonuses that were due to players in 2020, who opt out, will become NLTBE in 2021. I am going to wait for more confirmation on this.

5. NFL and NFLPA have agreed that the cap won't go down by more than about $23 million max next year. This almost certainly means that they are borrowing from future years given the likely impact on revenue this year, so it will probably be several years until we're back to $200 million.

Unanswered lurking questions: What are the cap and contract impacts if a team cannot play all 16 games this year? I say unanswered in the sense that I don't know the answer and haven't seen anything super reliable to answer the question, but I assume that there actually is an answer already in the NFL/NFLPA agreement, but we just don't know it. It is a very significant question, because, especially for older players, it could really motivate the opt out decision.

Apparently, the opt out can be revoked or renegotiated. Again, I haven't seen firm reporting on that other than it was in one of the offers. What this would mean for the current year toll and salary cap is not clear (to me at least).
Thanks DDB
 

RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
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A lot of discussion about that above. Miguel's feed is the best place to understand the cap implications of pretty much everything and the fact that he does it in the context of discussing the Patriots is a big bonus for us.

Some of the general principles that were hashed out above:

1. Contracts roll a year forward for opt outs. Whatever the terms were for a given year become the terms for one year later.

2. Pro-rated cap hits from prior signing bonuses or other tricks are still charged this year.

3. When the player opts out, his 2020 cap hit comes off the books for things not mentioned in 2.

4. Surprisingly, if Miguel is to be believed (a fairly good bet), 2020 will be the baseline for determining whether opted out players' incentives in 2021 are likely to be earned or not. And, because none of them will take a snap, pretty much all incentive bonuses that were due to players in 2020, who opt out, will become NLTBE in 2021. I am going to wait for more confirmation on this.

5. NFL and NFLPA have agreed that the cap won't go down by more than about $23 million max next year. This almost certainly means that they are borrowing from future years given the likely impact on revenue this year, so it will probably be several years until we're back to $200 million.

Unanswered lurking questions: What are the cap and contract impacts if a team cannot play all 16 games this year? I say unanswered in the sense that I don't know the answer and haven't seen anything super reliable to answer the question, but I assume that there actually is an answer already in the NFL/NFLPA agreement, but we just don't know it. It is a very significant question, because, especially for older players, it could really motivate the opt out decision.

Apparently, the opt out can be revoked or renegotiated. Again, I haven't seen firm reporting on that other than it was in one of the offers. What this would mean for the current year toll and salary cap is not clear (to me at least).
The opt outs are described as "generally irrevocable". It would have to take something pretty crazy for it to be revoked and as far as I have read there is no known appeals process.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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The opt outs are described as "generally irrevocable". It would have to take something pretty crazy for it to be revoked and as far as I have read there is no known appeals process.
Ok, yeah -- thanks for that. It seems consistent with what Miguel says about NLTBE because otherwise it would just be unmanageable if a player could come back.

There was a bunch of reporting around the middle of the month that various proposals included an opt out to an opt out, but it's really hard to find actual language of the agreement online and since it's all in mostly tweets there aren't enough words for nuance. Or my google skills suck.
 

ShaneTrot

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I bet Hightower is done in NE. Pats can save $9m against the cap cutting him. $11m cap number after a year off? I'm all set.
I really love Hightower and I hope he is not done. He was very productive in 2019. I am also Blinded by the Lombardis, the guy makes big plays in big games. In this second incarnation of the dynasty, he is one of my top 5 favorite players.
 

Phil Plantier

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This is from overthecap.com (via Miguel's twitter feed), and is a really helpful explainer. Might have to pin this to the forum for a couple of weeks. It's all laid out there, including this nugget, that I didn't realize:

I think that any player with a large guarantee for this season should strongly consider opting out rather than having the guarantee rollover protection.
 

Ralphwiggum

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If Bill is telling guys to opt out if they don't feel comfortable it is probably a combination of the fact that he's got six rings and really anything else he does in his career at this point is gravy, he understands the risks associated with playing and doesn't want guys who don't feel comfortable with the risk, and he recognizes there's very little chance that the full season actually gets played.
I clicked into the comments (yes, I know, never read the comments) and was pleasantly surprised with the support for his decision.
 

SMU_Sox

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Jul 20, 2009
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Three questions:

If a guy on a 1 year deal opts out is he gone?
If season is canceled are guys on 1 year deals gone?
Do we want a "scab" Pats team to play a shortened NFL schedule, go 1-8 and draft Trevor Lawrence and why is the answer yes?
Pats were already one of the leaders in season to season snaps lost to roster turnover before this decision. They were a heavy defense team and lost two of their guys who performed well at multiple roles.The LB core has none of the 3 main starters from 2019. That’s incredible.

It wouldn’t surprise me that even though BB is not one to tank that they have their worst year under him because of the schedule, the turnover, and the lack of coaching in the off-season. If DMC and JMC also opt out it would be hard to see how teams wouldn’t exploit the weaknesses at safety and LB.

The thing that gave me hope with this season was that their defense would still be good. Not as good as last year but still top 10ish.

The rookie and second year players getting experience is great but it’s more of a baptism by fire and that can be bad because you don’t want to overwhelm younger players. So many mixed scenarios.

With Bolden out though that at least makes the RB room resolved with Michel, Harris, Burkhead, and White.

Safety and LB wise I am not sure if they look to add anyone or rely on the depth. This will continue to be yet another interesting off-season for this team.
 
Jul 15, 2005
2,010
Chicago
what exactly can one expect from a 2021 draft if there is no college football or tons of opt outs? would they just stay another year to improve their stock? take the gamble and go straight to the NFL? Not sure I would bank on a 2021 draft to reload this roster if NFL can't scout
 

mauf

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what exactly can one expect from a 2021 draft if there is no college football or tons of opt outs? would they just stay another year to improve their stock? take the gamble and go straight to the NFL? Not sure I would bank on a 2021 draft to reload this roster if NFL can't scout
There’s plenty of film to watch, and the pre-draft vetting process (combine, workouts, etc.) won’t be disrupted to the degree it was this year. Predicting how players will react to a year off is obviously a wild card. The draft is always a crapshoot; maybe the 2021 version will be a bit more so, but I wouldn’t be dumping picks or anything.
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
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i am shocked only 1 bronco has opted out dt peko and he was a bubble guy i thrount Miller wouild opt out and S Kareem Jackson would too since he got covid-19 this offseason
 

joe dokes

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Do other teams/players see so many Patriots opt out and figure, "this year we got 'em" so they go ahead and play?
 

tims4wins

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There’s plenty of film to watch, and the pre-draft vetting process (combine, workouts, etc.) won’t be disrupted to the degree it was this year. Predicting how players will react to a year off is obviously a wild card. The draft is always a crapshoot; maybe the 2021 version will be a bit more so, but I wouldn’t be dumping picks or anything.
And if there is one team that will be prepared for this, based on what we know about how they scout, it will be the Pats.
 

Valek123

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I would frankly love to see nearly the whole team opt-out except young players and a boat load of UDFA signings to cover the bases to give Bill a half season(or whatever is played) worth of data to bring forward a wave of Diamonds in the rough when actual football returns hopefully for the 2021-22 season. I don't care if they win a game this year as long as the major players don't sustain injuries and are ready to go next season.
 

Salem's Lot

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I would frankly love to see nearly the whole team opt-out except young players and a boat load of UDFA signings to cover the bases to give Bill a half season(or whatever is played) worth of data to bring forward a wave of Diamonds in the rough when actual football returns hopefully for the 2021-22 season. I don't care if they win a game this year as long as the major players don't sustain injuries and are ready to go next season.
I honestly wish our 68 year old best coach of all time would sit this one out instead of exposing himself to a deadly virus, but we all know he’s just not wired that way.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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He can’t bank on double digits every year anymore, I’d imagine that ends up closer to 6-8, not even building in this seemingly lost year. I’m not sure he’ll be on the sidelines at 76, but I always took his word he wouldn’t be Marv Levy and damn if he didn’t sneak up on him right quick.
 

JimD

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They have till August 4th or shortly thereafter to opt out. Apparently there are many more coming, from other teams. According to Jeff Howe, no more are expected from the Pats.
I will be surprised if the McCourty twins decide to play.
 

Scott Cooper's Grand Slam

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I don’t begrudge Lee this decision. He’s a new father and the NFL season, if it happens, is unpredictable. But dispassionately, isn’t this season Lee’s best chance to prove himself as an NFL regular? He’s on the bubble and recovering from injury. Being able to grind under extraordinary circumstances and learn alongside 2 new QBs would probably be seen as points in his favor.

That said, he’s made $14.2 million in his career. This is probably a prudent decision.
 

Phil Plantier

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isn’t this season Lee’s best chance to prove himself as an NFL regular?
I wonder how many of the opt-out people will retire next year, and how many will come back as better players because they had more recovery time.

If Lee felt like he was still recovering from his injuries, I could see how that would be the tipping point to opting out.
 

DJnVa

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I saw on the crawl that some NFL teams are thinking fringe roster guys might opt out to secure a pay day.