Week 2 vs Dolphins Pre-Game Discussion and News

[RedOctober3829]

Defensively, I expect majority of the time the Pats will be in a deep shell giving Miami the underneath throws and limiting the deep shots. I think there’s a big opportunity for the front 7 to get after Tua. Miami’s OL is shaky especially with Terron Armstead’s status up in the air after missing Week 1. Hell, they’re starting Isaiah Wynn at LG if that tells you anything. Jon Jones should draw Tyreek Hill and Christian Gonzalez on Waddle.

Offensively, things will hinge on whether Strange and Onwenu are ready. If they can go, the running game should be stronger which will help the RPO game. I want to see more Gesicki on the field. 33 snaps is too low. Will Juju play more than Boutte?

The time for moral victories is over. With Rodgers out, the game has changed in this division and I think it’s there for the taking for the Patriots if they can finally stop beating themselves.

 

[Saints Rest]

I’d add Parker to the list of guys who were late moves to OUT last week who could make a difference coming back.

 

[chilidawg]

San Diego ran at will against the Fins, and I'd imagine that's the game plan for the Pats as well. Play action, RPO's and unleash Rhamondre. Onwenu and Strange back would really help that cause.

 

[rodderick]

San Diego ran at will against the Fins, and I'd imagine that's the game plan for the Pats as well. Play action, RPO's and unleash Rhamondre. Onwenu and Strange back would really help that cause.

Are we sure play action will feature heavily in the game plan? They were pretty much an exclusively shotgun team against the Eagles and ran one PA if I'm not mistaken. I don't think they'll be in the 2% play action rate range again, but hard to imagine them going heavy on it, because it's not like that was precipitated by them falling in an early hole against Philly, they didn't use it on their opening drive or at 16-14 either. I think BOB wants Mac to have a clear view of the field with a lot of options to allow him to make quick decisions.

 

[Jinhocho]

Are we sure play action will feature heavily in the game plan? They were pretty much an exclusively shotgun team against the Eagles and ran one PA if I'm not mistaken. I don't think they'll be in the 2% play action rate range again, but hard to imagine them going heavy on it, because it's not like that was precipitated by them falling in an early hole against Philly, they didn't use it on their opening drive or at 16-14 either. I think BOB wants Mac to have a clear view of the field with a lot of options to allow him to make quick decisions.

It has been said a lot over the last couple years that Mac does not like play action. He prefers to play out of the gun. I think it was one of the reasons the team look liveier with zappe at the outset.

 

[SMU_Sox]

The other reason you don't run PA against the Eagles is because of internal pressure. You can't run PA when you have two rookie guards who are, especially Mafi, letting up pressure at the rates he did. They also were getting blown back in the run game.

I wouldn't be surprised if they were lower on PA but see a big bump in RPOs this year.

 

[Shelterdog]

It has been set a lot over the last couple years that Mac does not like play action. He prefers to play out of the gun. I think it was one of the reasons the team look liveier with zappe at the outset.

Play action also isn't a great idea when you are starting to rookie mid round picks at guard against probably the best pass rushing d-line in the NFL--I assume they use play action more goign forward.

EDIT: SMU_Sox said it gooder.

 

[rodderick]

The other reason you don't run PA against the Eagles is because of internal pressure. You can't run PA when you have two rookie guards who are, especially Mafi, letting up pressure at the rates he did. They also were getting blown back in the run game.

I wouldn't be surprised if they were lower on PA but see a big bump in RPOs this year.

100% agreed, just think if PA was something they planned to feature extensively this year you'd still have seen more than 1 attempt there, or at least more under center pass attempts.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I’d add Parker to the list of guys who were late moves to OUT last week who could make a difference coming back.

Completely agree. Not that Boutte was terrible, he looked good for hist first NFL game, but had Parker been in there it's entirely possible theres a different outcome. I see Rham coming back and having a big game, he wasn't fully healthy. Maybe Zeke as well. Depends on Strange and Onwenu. If we can put points on the board an not turn it over the defense is going to do what it does. On that end, do they put Marcus Jones on Hill and bracket him with a safety? He might be the only guy that can keep up with him. Although, I'm listing the DBs in my head, Jon Jones, Dugger, Phillips, Peppers, Mills and I'm not sure it matters. That is a fucking stable right there. Please everyone stay healthy. Last season, week 1 the Pats had 0 passes defended against Tua. Not Sunday. I think we make his life hell. If Keion White can chase him down it's going to be a long day for the Fish.

 

[leftfieldlegacy]

The Chargers had no sacks last week and from the few highlights I watched they did not appear to pressure Tua at all. As a result Tua's YPA was a league leading 10.4. It's pretty clear that the Pat's offense can't match that so it will fall to the D Line to get enough pressure on Tua forcing him to drop his eye level to avoid the rush instead of scanning downfield watching Hill and Waddle run wild in the secondary. Getting to him with 4 rushers would be ideal but I'm sure they'll need some creative blitz packages like those used against the Eagles.

 

[Saints Rest]

Completely agree. Not that Boutte was terrible, he looked good for hist first NFL game, but had Parker been in there it's entirely possible theres a different outcome. I see Rham coming back and having a big game, he wasn't fully healthy. Maybe Zeke as well. Depends on Strange and Onwenu. If we can put points on the board an not turn it over the defense is going to do what it does. On that end, do they put Marcus Jones on Hill and bracket him with a safety? He might be the only guy that can keep up with him. Although, I'm listing the DBs in my head, Jon Jones, Dugger, Phillips, Peppers, Mills and I'm not sure it matters. That is a fucking stable right there. Please everyone stay healthy. Last season, week 1 the Pats had 0 passes defended against Tua. Not Sunday. I think we make his life hell. If Keion White can chase him down it's going to be a long day for the Fish.

Back when Hill was with KC, they almost always used Jon Jones on him. At that time, (that) Jones was arguably the fastest player on the team. Now maybe Marcus has surpassed Jon in that regard, but I think I would want Jon's experience -- both generally and against Tyreek -- to take the lead role.

 

[RorschachsMask]

edit: double post

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1702016613472481417?s=20

 

[Dogman]

View: https://twitter.com/ByMarkDaniels/status/1702051316367863810


Patriots injury report DNP Trent Brown (concussion) Sidy Sow (conussion) Limited David Andrews (hamstring) Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) Mike Onwenu (ankle) Cole Strange (knee) DeVante Parker (knee

 

[joe dokes]

View: https://twitter.com/ByMarkDaniels/status/1702051316367863810


Patriots injury report DNP Trent Brown (concussion) Sidy Sow (conussion) Limited David Andrews (hamstring) Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) Mike Onwenu (ankle) Cole Strange (knee) DeVante Parker (knee

That explains looking at Collins.

 

[Justthetippett]

View: https://twitter.com/ByMarkDaniels/status/1702051316367863810


Patriots injury report DNP Trent Brown (concussion) Sidy Sow (conussion) Limited David Andrews (hamstring) Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) Mike Onwenu (ankle) Cole Strange (knee) DeVante Parker (knee

Damn two concussions to the OTs? That's brutal. I wonder if training staff are getting better at diagnosing those?

 

[chilidawg]

View: https://twitter.com/ByMarkDaniels/status/1702051316367863810


Patriots injury report DNP Trent Brown (concussion) Sidy Sow (conussion) Limited David Andrews (hamstring) Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) Mike Onwenu (ankle) Cole Strange (knee) DeVante Parker (knee

Not bad, just the Offensive line. Really don't need one of those.

 

[cshea]

Damn two concussions to the OTs? That's brutal. I wonder if training staff are getting better at diagnosing those?

Sow and Brown each played 100% of the offensive snaps. They either self reported or the medical staff does some sort of post-game follow up and caught it.

 

[rodderick]

Jesus, don't recall seeing an OL this destroyed by Week 2. I don't think the Dolphins will put a ton of points on the board, but if this is what they have to work with on offense, 13 might be enough.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

That explains looking at Collins.

That and he's better than the majority of linemen we have.

 

[sodenj5]

Jesus, don't recall seeing an OL this destroyed by Week 2. I don't think the Dolphins will put a ton of points on the board, but if this is what they have to work with on offense, 13 might be enough.

13? My brother, this isn’t the Cam Cameron dolphins anymore.

Miami scored 21 with Teddy Bridgewater and 20 with Tua last season against New England and their worst game last season was 15 when Tua was spiked into the turf in Cincinnati.

 

[cshea]

My brother, Tua put up 13 against New England in week 1 last year. 7 came on a 2-yard fumble return.

 

[sodenj5]

My brother, Tua put up 13 against New England in week 1 last year. 7 came on a 2-yard fumble return.

Points only count when the offense scores them?

Also, literally McDaniel and Tua’s first game together, McDaniel’s first game as a head coach and as the primary playcaller.

I’ll take over 13 this week, and would be happy to wager some Jimmy Fund donations to any takers.

 

[Van Everyman]

It's kind of puzzling: Tua has never played particularly well against the Pats and yet he's never lost to us. It's time for that to change.

 

[88 MVP]

Points only count when the offense scores them?

Also, literally McDaniel and Tua’s first game together, McDaniel’s first game as a head coach and as the primary playcaller.

I’ll take over 13 this week, and would be happy to wager some Jimmy Fund donations to any takers.

Maybe relax? The original point was not that NE is going to hold Miami to 13, but that even if the defense managed that type of performance it *still* might not be enough given how banged up the Pats O-line is.

Hoping a few of these guys can play Sunday, otherwise I don’t think the offense will have the horses to keep up with Miami’s offense.

 

[rodderick]

13? My brother, this isn’t the Cam Cameron dolphins anymore.

Miami scored 21 with Teddy Bridgewater and 20 with Tua last season against New England and their worst game last season was 15 when Tua was spiked into the turf in Cincinnati.

How do you get this defensive over a post that was obviously talking about the Patriots' likely inability to move the ball due to their OL issues? Game's on Sunday night, might be getting too hyped too early, my brother.

 

[sodenj5]

How do you get this defensive over a post that was obviously talking about the Patriots' likely inability to move the ball due to their OL issues? Game's on Sunday night, might be getting too hyped too early, my brother.

You’re right. I’m gonna take a lap.

 

[pdaj]

As one of "the other" Dolphins fans on this site, my non-technical perspective is this:

Miami has always played New England relatively well, even when the Patriots had the best QB in the league and were significantly more talented. So, now that Miami's roster is clearly better and littered with more "game-changers", it's hard for Dolphins fans not to be confident, especially coming off of the offense's Week 1 performance.

I love and respect Belichick as a HC and certainly know a win isn't a given. Heck, no division game ever really is. I think that NE will try to sustain long drives (limiting Miami's TOP) and present Tua with different looks and aim to prevent big plays.

I expect both teams to do well between the 20s. The difference, IMO, will come down to red zone effectiveness. Thus far in Tua's career, he's been one of the best in this area.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I think with the offensive line in shambles, and Miami's front 7 not being all that great, this will be the game where we should see the Pats running Rhamondre a LOT, and we may even see some two back sets with him and Elliott, double tight ends. Ground and pound, slow and steady, speed up the game and keep Miami's offense off the field. San Diego ran all over them.

Of course, having watched the Pats forever, I fully expect it'll be the opposite, and we'll be running play action, 7 step drops and deep balls every third play.

Heading down to the Blade on Sunday. Should be an interesting one.

 

[Van Everyman]

As one of "the other" Dolphins fans on this site, my non-technical perspective is this:

Miami has always played New England relatively well, even when the Patriots had the best QB in the league and were significantly more talented. So, now that Miami's roster is clearly better and littered with more "game-changers", it's hard for Dolphins fans not to be confident, especially coming off of the offense's Week 1 performance.

I love and respect Belichick as a HC and certainly know a win isn't a given. Heck, no division game ever really is. I think that NE will try to sustain long drives (limiting Miami's TOP) and present Tua with different looks and aim to prevent big plays.

I expect both teams to do well between the 20s. The difference, IMO, will come down to red zone effectiveness. Thus far in Tua's career, he's been one of the best in this area.

This is a good post.

The thing I will be looking for is whether Tua can play a good game against them. Certain quarterbacks really struggle against a Belichick defense -- Goff is another. It would be interesting to know why. There are examples of guys struggling out of the gate against the NEP but then figuring it out -- Allen is one.

Can Tua make the leap this weekend? He has every reason to now: weapons, a year in the McDaniel system, health, experience. It will be interesting to watch.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

As one of "the other" Dolphins fans on this site, my non-technical perspective is this:

Miami has always played New England relatively well, even when the Patriots had the best QB in the league and were significantly more talented. So, now that Miami's roster is clearly better and littered with more "game-changers", it's hard for Dolphins fans not to be confident, especially coming off of the offense's Week 1 performance.

I love and respect Belichick as a HC and certainly know a win isn't a given. Heck, no division game ever really is. I think that NE will try to sustain long drives (limiting Miami's TOP) and present Tua with different looks and aim to prevent big plays.

I expect both teams to do well between the 20s. The difference, IMO, will come down to red zone effectiveness. Thus far in Tua's career, he's been one of the best in this area.

You should be confident. You have one of the best sets of WRs in the league. Tua looked fucking great last week. The offense is explosive.

I didn't see enough of the Dolphins game to form much of an opinion about their defense, but giving up 34 points is a lot against any team. The Chargers offense was basically a borderline top 10 offense last year, but I could see them jumping into the top 5 with Kellen Moore at the helm.

We all know the Pats offense is NOT equal to the Chargers offense, but they showed some signs of life against a very good Eagles defense. And, God forbid they cleanup the turnovers - a bad fumble by Elliot and an INT bounced into the air by our own WR - and they would have put up a pretty respectable showing.

All that said, Im pretty sure Miami's defense is better than what it showed last week, and I'm overly cautious in putting much stock in any signs of life from the Patriots offense until we see it for multiple weeks.

I'd be pleasantly surprised if we can keep this a close game or sneak it out. I expect the Dolphins to be up 2 possessions halfway through the 4th.

 

[BusRaker]

From a Pats perspective I like the matchup of our best unit (pass rush / defense) against the Fins best unit and our worst unit versus theirs.

Leaving it to the turnover battle and special teams at that point I'd go with the Pats against the 3 point spread as a neutral betting man. The Fins may be better but not 6 points on a neutral field better. I think it's a case of Tyreek 217 yard game betting inflation.

It's going to be a fun game!

 

[OldeBeanTowne]

I liked what I saw out of the Pats offense when it was going at a higher tempo and keeping the Philly defense on the field. I think having both RBs on the field at once can help with this and, like DotB, I'd like to see them run a lot and force Miami to stop the run. Force the safeties to over commit and a well planned PA pass to Gesicki down the seam opens up. Just spit balling.

 

[sodenj5]

I liked what I saw out of the Pats offense when it was going at a higher tempo and keeping the Philly defense on the field. I think having both RBs on the field at once can help with this and, like DotB, I'd like to see them run a lot and force Miami to stop the run. Force the safeties to over commit and a well planned PA pass to Gesicki down the seam opens up. Just spit balling.

Just to bring up what I saw from Fangio and Miami’s defense last week: Fangio is basically always working under the assumption that you’re trying to throw the ball deep.

Miami gave up 200+ rushing yards, and he still kept the lid on the Chargers offense. He’s happy to give you 5 yards on the ground if it means you don’t get the 40 yards pass down field. It wasn’t until the game was on the line with under 2 minutes until they started getting aggressive.

Some of that is probably game plan specific, as Herbert has the potential to push the ball deep, but it’s also very much a core tenet of what Vic does. Executing 10-15 play drives is hard and requires discipline and patience. Miami was terrible against the run, and that has to get better, but they also held Herbert to just over 200 yards and 1 TD, and that was very much by design.

 

[rodderick]

Just to bring up what I saw from Fangio and Miami’s defense last week: Fangio is basically always working under the assumption that you’re trying to throw the ball deep.

Miami gave up 200+ rushing yards, and he still kept the lid on the Chargers offense. He’s happy to give you 5 yards on the ground if it means you don’t get the 40 yards pass down field. It wasn’t until the game was on the line with under 2 minutes until they started getting aggressive.

Some of that is probably game plan specific, as Herbert has the potential to push the ball deep, but it’s also very much a core tenet of what Vic does. Executing 10-15 play drives is hard and requires discipline and patience. Miami was terrible against the run, and that has to get better, but they also held Herbert to just over 200 yards and 1 TD, and that was very much by design.

Herbert has one of the 3 best arms in the league and can make every throw, but he's generally been a short/intermediate guy and the Chargers don't have fast receivers. I think Miami's gameplan overestimated their explosiveness. I wouldn't take that approach with the Patriots at all, but you're right, it is what Fangio is known for.

 

[sodenj5]

Herbert has one of the 3 best arms in the league and can make every throw, but he's generally been a short/intermediate guy and the Chargers don't have fast receivers. I think Miami's gameplan overestimated their explosiveness. I wouldn't take that approach with the Patriots at all, but you're right, it is what Fangio is known for.

I’m with you 100%. People see Herbert’s tools and assume he should be bombing it downfield. The truth is he’s far more conservative with the ball and is quick to go through his reads and take the easy completion.

Most attributed that to Joe Lombardi, and it’s why he was fired. Herbert’s ADoT was actually lower last week than it was last season. Is that because Vic was keeping the lid on the offense, because the run game was so successful, or because that’s kind of who Herbert is? We shall see throughout the season.

I would also be surprised if Miami took that exact same approach. I don’t think you’re going to see the selling out to stop the run, because that isn’t what Vic does, but you may see some more pressure and base packages than what LA saw.

 

[rodderick]

I’m with you 100%. People see Herbert’s tools and assume he should be bombing it downfield. The truth is he’s far more conservative with the ball and is quick to go through his reads and take the easy completion.

Most attributed that to Joe Lombardi, and it’s why he was fired. Herbert’s ADoT was actually lower last week than it was last season. Is that because Vic was keeping the lid on the offense, because the run game was so successful, or because that’s kind of who Herbert is? We shall see throughout the season.

I would also be surprised if Miami took that exact same approach. I don’t think you’re going to see the selling out to stop the run, because that isn’t what Vic does, but you may see some more pressure and base packages than what LA saw.

I think the Dolphins defense will take a while to gel because going from the cover one, man, blitz heavy stuff they were running to Fangio's system is likely the biggest turnaround you can have on that side of the ball. But a lot will reside on the pass rush.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I think the Dolphins defense will take a while to gel because going from the cover one, man, blitz heavy stuff they were running to Fangio's system is likely the biggest turnaround you can have on that side of the ball. But a lot will reside on the pass rush.

Apologies for the tangent perhaps, but what is Fangio's system? Trying to decide whether to get excited or worried.

 

[Cellar-Door]

https://www.patriots.com/news/week-2-injury-report-dolphins-at-patriots?friday

Injury report looks bad at first glance, but actually might be.... better than expected?

Nobody doubtful or out, which means the 2 guys with concussions are progressing through the protocol

Edit- also Andrews off the report entirely.

 

[tims4wins]

https://www.patriots.com/news/week-2-injury-report-dolphins-at-patriots?friday

Injury report looks bad at first glance, but actually might be.... better than expected?

Nobody doubtful or out, which means the 2 guys with concussions are progressing through the protocol

No such thing as doubtful any more.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

No such thing as doubtful any more.

No such thing as "probable". Doubtful still exists.

 

[Cellar-Door]

No such thing as doubtful any more.

https://www.nfl.com/injuries/league/2023/REG2

Definitely still exists, probable is the one they dropped.

 

[chilidawg]

https://www.patriots.com/news/week-2-injury-report-dolphins-at-patriots?friday

Injury report looks bad at first glance, but actually might be.... better than expected?

Nobody doubtful or out, which means the 2 guys with concussions are progressing through the protocol

Edit- also Andrews off the report entirely.

nm.

 

[tims4wins]

The lesson, as always, is double check your work when you started happy hour early.

 

[sodenj5]

Apologies for the tangent perhaps, but what is Fangio's system? Trying to decide whether to get excited or worried.

https://theathletic.com/3311028/2022/05/24/vic-fangio-defense-analysis/?amp=1

This explains it better than I could if you want a deep analysis.

In a nutshell, it’s a two high safety system designed around limiting explosive plays. It’s become very in-vogue because of the explosive vertical passing we’ve seen over the last decade or so, and also Vic’s own success in coordinating defenses.

Because it’s so geared towards stopping the deep passing game, it invites teams to run on it with lighter box counts. That means the front 7 really have to work in harmony to control the running game, and that clearly did not happen vs LA.

McDaniel himself said he thought there were too many players trying to make individual plays and not doing their job in defense.

 

[Average Game James]

https://www.patriots.com/news/week-2-injury-report-dolphins-at-patriots?friday

Injury report looks bad at first glance, but actually might be.... better than expected?

Nobody doubtful or out, which means the 2 guys with concussions are progressing through the protocol

Edit- also Andrews off the report entirely.

J. Jones DNP is concerning since he would likely be the primary defender on the really fast child abuser. Not on the injury report Wednesday, LP Thursday, DNP Friday is not a promising trend. Almost suggests he hurt himself during Thursday practice?

 

[pdaj]

I didn't realize that the Pats had signed Jalen Reagor to their PS until reading this AM that he's been elevated for tonight. I haven't followed him closely since his rookie season but really liked him coming out of college, and he's still just 23 years old. Maybe a sneaky find.

NE didn't elevate any OL. I guess it means that it's likely both Onwenu and Strange play? Who fills in on at T?

As someone concerned about the Patriots' running game in this one, I was hoping that BB would run out of duct tape.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I didn't realize that the Pats had signed Jalen Reagor to their PS until reading this AM that he's been elevated for tonight. I haven't followed him closely since his rookie season but really liked him coming out of college, and he's still just 23 years old. Maybe a sneaky find.

NE didn't elevate any OL. I guess it means that it's likely both Onwenu and Strange play? Who fills in on at T?

As someone concerned about the Patriots' running game in this one, I was hoping that BB would run out of duct tape.

Yes, I think Strange and Onwenu are probably in, Brown and Sow out. I think the tackle fill in will either be Lowe, Wheatley, or Onwenu.

I think the Reagor elevation suggests that 1) Parker will be out again and 2) Boutte is not viewed as ready to carry the load he did last week (55 of 80 offensive snaps).

The elevation of Munson is interesting because this is his second elevation. He can only be elevated one more time before he must be added to the active roster. He played 14 of 29 ST snaps last week and did not see the field on the defense. Mack WIlson also played 14 ST snaps, while Board played 27 and Tavai played 22.