Tracking the Main WC Contenders - Final 30 Games

[streeter88]

Assuming new threads are good, after last night's win I have reenergised for a final burst of enthusiasm.

For expedience limited the contenders to KC, Minnesota, Cleveland and Boston - ignoring the 3 other teams which are just at .500 (Detroit, Seattle and Tampa Bay; and assuming the Bregmans will win the AL West).

Someone may have done this already (and apologies to RR from last year), but here is the remaining schedule. Sox are 38-34 tonight after the Toronto win. If we need 88 wins, the Sox need to go 20-10.

Home in bold, contenders in red (13/30):

Toronto (2) - need 2-0
Detroit (3) - need 2-1
NYM (3) - need 2-1
CHW (3) - need 3-0
Balt (3) - 1-2
NYY (4) - 2-2
TBR (3) - 2-1
Minn (3) - 2-1
Toronto (3) - 2-1
TBR (3) - 2-1

WC Contender Schedule by Rival (contenders in red, home in bold):
KC: 17/29. CLE, HOU 4, CLE 3, MIN 3, NYY 3, PIT 3, DET 3, SFG 3, NAT 3, ATL 3.
CLE: 14/29. KC, PIT 3, KC 3, LAD 3, CHW 3, TBR 4, MIN 4, STL 3, CIN 2, HOU 3.
MIN 14/30. ATL, TOR 3, TBR 4, KC 3, LAA 3, CIN 3, CLE 4, BOS 3, MIA 3, BAL 3.

By the way, the Twins and Guardians are both 3-7 last 10 games. Red Sox 4-6. Royals 7-3.

So the Sox really need to make hay the next 2 weeks if they want to be in the hunt for the last WC. Otherwise "disengagement day" (thanks @Sin Duda ) looms.

I will update this post every 3-4 games and add any relevant teams if needed.

28/8 Edit: going to need to take 2 from the Twins anyway. Gets the 20 wins other posters mentioned.

 

[Humphrey]

The trouble with 19-11, not to mention anything less; is that only two of KC, Minn, Cleve have to break even to knock Boston out of the running. Best scenario for the Red Sox is one of them running away with the division and thereby pinning several losses on the other two.

I'd have to agree that in terms of the wild card, the teams trailing the Red Sox are not that much of a consideration. If any of them pass the Sox, the Sox weren't going anywhere in terms of catching the top 3 anyway.

 

[joe dokes]

Assuming new threads are good, after last night's win I have reenergised for a final burst of enthusiasm.

For expedience limited the contenders to KC, Minnesota, Cleveland and Boston - ignoring the 3 other teams which are just at .500 (Detroit, Seattle and Tampa Bay; and assuming the Bregmans will win the AL West).

Someone may have done this already (and apologies to RR from last year), but here is the remaining schedule. Sox are 38-34 tonight after the Toronto win. If we need 87 wins, the Sox need to go 19-11.

Home in bold, contenders in red (13/30):

Toronto (2) - need 2-0
Detroit (3) - need 2-1
NYM (3) - need 2-1
CHW (3) - need 3-0
Balt (3) - 1-2
NYY (4) - 2-2
TBR (3) - 2-1
Minn (3) - 1-2
Toronto (3) - 2-1
TBR (3) - 2-1

WC Contender Schedule by Rival (contenders in red, home in bold):
KC: 17/29. CLE, HOU 4, CLE 3, MIN 3, NYY 3, PIT 3, DET 3, SFG 3, NAT 3, ATL 3.
CLE: 14/29. KC, PIT 3, KC 3, LAD 3, CHW 3, TBR 4, MIN 4, STL 3, CIN 2, HOU 3.
MIN 14/30. ATL, TOR 3, TBR 4, KC 3, LAA 3, CIN 3, CLE 4, BOS 3, MIA 3, BAL 3.

By the way, the Twins and Guardians are both 3-7 last 10 games. Red Sox 4-6. Royals 7-3.

So the Sox really need to make hay the next 2 weeks if they want to be in the hunt for the last WC. Otherwise "disengagement day" (thanks @Sin Duda ) looms.

I will update this post every 3-4 games and add any relevant teams if needed.

Ultimately, I think it will shake out such that they need to win at least 2/3 vs. Min. which, at present is the only direct competition on the schedule.

 

[E5 Yaz]

If the Red Sox gain enough grounds that the four main contenders are within a game or so, I'm looking at that last weekend

Red Sox / Rays
Royals / Braves
Guardians / Astros
Twins / Orioles

The Braves seem pretty locked into a WC spot, while the Astros and Orioles might have a division title at stake.

 

[Beale13]

It's just the Twins at this point though, right? We're six back in the loss column behind the Guardians with no head-to-head with them left. Seems incredibly unlikely. I don't see any chance other than catching the Twins. They've just officially lost their best starting pitcher for the year, and we've got three games left with them. Their schedule for the rest of the year is pretty soft, but so is ours.

 

[E5 Yaz]

It's just the Twins at this point though, right? We're six back in the loss column behind the Guardians with no head-to-head with them left. Seems incredibly unlikely. I don't see any chance other than catching the Twins. They've just officially lost their best starting pitcher for the year, and we've got three games left with them. Their schedule for the rest of the year is pretty soft, but so is ours.

I think the difference is that instead of having teams like the Rays, Blue Jays or Rangers in the chase, it's the Central Division and there's just this built-in reluctance to think that three of those teams could all make the playoffs. This just might be the year, though, that it happens.
The Royals have a tough schedule, the Twins, like you said, are beat up, and the Guardians are slumping. It's not inconceivable that two of them falter.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Fangraphs projects mean win totals of 89 for each of CLE/KCR, and 88 for MIN. Yes, some will do better and some will do worse, but shooting for 87 wins is a pretty low target.

 

[Jack Rabbit Slim]

The trouble with 19-11, not to mention anything less; is that only two of KC, Minn, Cleve have to break even to knock Boston out of the running. Best scenario for the Red Sox is one of them running away with the division and thereby pinning several losses on the other two.

The Royals have a tough schedule, the Twins, like you said, are beat up, and the Guardians are slumping. It's not inconceivable that two of them falter.

Am I misunderstanding or does only one of KC/CLE/MIN need to fall out of the playoffs?

If the Red Sox play 4-5 games better than the Twins in the last 30 games, they would be the 3rd WC (unless a team below them played even better of course), correct?

 

[AB in DC]

Right. Just need one of the three AL-C teams to drop off.

BTW, Davenport thinks that Cleveland is a fraud and it actually playing like a sub-.500 team with incredible luck.
https://claydavenport.com/stats/standings.html

 

[E5 Yaz]

Am I misunderstanding or does only one of KC/CLE/MIN need to fall out of the playoffs?

what I meant was it's conceivable that two of them fade down the stretch, giving the sox a better chance of nabbing the third WC

 

[Sin Duda]

CLE 7, KC 5 today. Now 4 GB of MIN and 6 GB of KC. 30 to play.

 

[streeter88]

Final sprint off to a great start - well done Bello - let’s see if you can build on that one next time out.
Edit: Twins lost as well. Now 3 games back of WC.

 

[streeter88]

That was depressing. Jays took 3 of 5 at Fenway. Ugh.

 

[streeter88]

Home in bold, contenders in red (13/30):

Toronto (2) - need 2-0. Got 1-1
Detroit (3) - need 2-1 or 3-0.
NYM (3) - need 2-1
CHW (3) - need 3-0
Balt (3) - 1-2
NYY (4) - 2-2
TBR (3) - 2-1
Minn (3) - 2-1
Toronto (3) - 2-1
TBR (3) - 2-1

WC Contender Schedule by Rival (contenders in red, home in bold):
KC: 17/29. CLE, HOU 4, CLE 3, MIN 3, NYY 3, PIT 3, DET 3, SFG 3, NAT 3, ATL 3.
CLE: 14/29. KC, PIT 3, KC 3, LAD 3, CHW 3, TBR 4, MIN 4, STL 3, CIN 2, HOU 3.
MIN 14/30. ATL, TOR 3, TBR 4, KC 3, LAA 3, CIN 3, CLE 4, BOS 3, MIA 3, BAL 3.

By the way, the Twins and Guardians are both 3-7 last 10 games. Red Sox 4-6. Royals 7-3.

So the Sox really need to make hay the next 2 weeks if they want to be in the hunt for the last WC. Otherwise "disengagement day" (thanks @Sin Duda ) looms.

I will update this post every 3-4 games and add any relevant teams if needed.

28/8 Edit: going to need to take 2 from the Twins anyway. Gets the 20 wins other posters mentioned.

End of Toronto series, now 69-65 and 3.5 back of Minnesota which was idle tonight. If we need 88 wins, the Sox need to go 19-9 to finish the season. Need Devers back. Math is starting to not be our friend.

 

[Rasputin]

End of Toronto series, now 69-65 and 3.5 back of Minnesota which was idle tonight. If we need 88 wins, the Sox need to go 19-9 to finish the season. Need Devers back. Math is starting to not be our friend.

Math was my friend for precisely three years. From the time my freshman high school math teacher made me understand algebra in three minutes to the time I enrolled in calc as a senior.

Have still not mastered calc 35 years later.

Don't really plan to try again.

 

[streeter88]

Math was my friend for precisely three years. From the time my freshman high school math teacher made me understand algebra in three minutes to the time I enrolled in calc as a senior.

Have still not mastered calc 35 years later.

Don't really plan to try again.

Same. Unfortunately for me it was five years earlier. Had to retake it freshman year in college at 8am on Fridays (usually hungover and often absent); shit prof with an unintellible accent, and my only D+ ever was well earned.

 

[Rasputin]

Same. Unfortunately for me it was five years earlier. Had to retake it freshman year in college at 8am on Fridays (usually hungover and often absent); shit prof with an unintellible accent, and my only D+ ever was well earned.

I took it twice again at two different colleges.

Also, what kind of clown signs up for an 8AM class on the other side of campus?

Oh wait, that was me.

 

[Sin Duda]

Friday night development, KC's 1B Vinnie Pasquantino was injured while trying to catch a rushed throw from reliever Lucas Erceg that took Pasquatino into the baseline. Erceg was also injured. Pasquatino is hitting .262, 19 HRs, 96 RBIs, .760 OPS. Erceg has a 2.63 ERA in 13.2 IP since being traded to KC. Hmm. KC lost the game 6-3 and have 2 more against surging Houston. Saturday, the Sox will have to show their abilility to beat the best pitchers in the game again as they face Det Cy Young leader Skubal (L). After Friday night's games (Sox win, Twins win, KC loses), Sox are now 3.5 behind MIN and 4.5 behind KC.

 

[streeter88]

Home in bold, contenders in red (10/25). As of today 1/9 Sox are 70-67; 4.5GB and sporting a 3-7 last 10 record. Going to have to start listing the Tigers soon at this rate. Need to go 18-7 to get to 88 wins.

Can't afford to lose any more series. Four weeks left, and 4.5GB; @Sin Duda what's your disengagement factor again? Weeks left plus 2 GB?

Toronto (2) - need 2-0. Got 1-1
Detroit (3) - need 2-1 or 3-0. Got 1-2.
NYM (3) - need 3-0
CHW (3) - need 3-0
Balt (3) - 1-2 need 2-1
NYY (4) - 2-2
TBR (3) - 2-1
Minn (3) - 2-1
Toronto (3) - 2-1
TBR (3) - 2-1

WC Contender Record, WCGB, Last 10, Schedule by Rival (contenders in red, home in bold):
KC: 75-63. 0. 12/22. 3-7. CLE, HOU 4, CLE 3, MIN 3, NYY 3, PIT 3, DET 3, SFG 3, NAT 3, ATL 3.
CLE: 78-59. +3.5.14/29. 5-5. KC, PIT 3, KC 2, KC1, LAD 3, CHW 3, TBR 4, MIN 4, STL 3, CIN 2, HOU 3.
MIN 74-62. 0. 13/26. 4-6. ATL, TOR 3, TBR 4, KC 3, LAA 3, CIN 3, CLE 4, BOS 3, MIA 3, BAL 3.

So the Sox really need to make hay the next 2 weeks if they want to be in the hunt for the last WC. Otherwise "disengagement day" (thanks @Sin Duda ) looms.

 

[Sin Duda]

Home in bold, contenders in red (10/25). As of today 1/9 Sox are 70-67; 4.5GB and sporting a 3-7 last 10 record. Going to have to start listing the Tigers soon at this rate. Need to go 18-7 to get to 88 wins.

Can't afford to lose any more series. Four weeks left, and 4.5GB; @Sin Duda what's your disengagement factor again? Weeks left plus 2 GB?

Toronto (2) - need 2-0. Got 1-1
Detroit (3) - need 2-1 or 3-0. Got 1-2.
NYM (3) - need 3-0
CHW (3) - need 3-0
Balt (3) - 1-2 need 2-1
NYY (4) - 2-2
TBR (3) - 2-1
Minn (3) - 2-1
Toronto (3) - 2-1
TBR (3) - 2-1

WC Contender Record, WCGB, Last 10, Schedule by Rival (contenders in red, home in bold):
KC: 75-63. 0. 12/22. 3-7. CLE, HOU 4, CLE 3, MIN 3, NYY 3, PIT 3, DET 3, SFG 3, NAT 3, ATL 3.
CLE: 78-59. +3.5.14/29. 5-5. KC, PIT 3, KC 2, KC1, LAD 3, CHW 3, TBR 4, MIN 4, STL 3, CIN 2, HOU 3.
MIN 74-62. 0. 13/26. 4-6. ATL, TOR 3, TBR 4, KC 3, LAA 3, CIN 3, CLE 4, BOS 3, MIA 3, BAL 3.

So the Sox really need to make hay the next 2 weeks if they want to be in the hunt for the last WC. Otherwise "disengagement day" (thanks @Sin Duda ) looms.

Yeah, I'm already starting to feel that disengagement feeling creep in with them more games back than weeks left. I always hope to be engaged when the first NFL games starts, so I need the Sox to surge a little this week.

 

[donutogre]

Losing two against Detroit is a pretty big blow. I just don’t see any evidence this team has what it takes to make the kind of run they’ll need.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Losing two against Detroit is a pretty big blow. I just don’t see any evidence this team has what it takes to make the kind of run they’ll need.

Yeah they really look they’ve given up. Depressing to watch. That loss yesterday was just sad- right from how Cora managed to start the lineup through his handling of Criswell. Nobody’s head was in the game

 

[Sin Duda]

To me, the reality is that they've played 137 games (85%) and are 3 over. To think they're going to finish another 8-10 over in 25 games is quite unrealistic, but they went 17-8 just before the All-Star game, so I still have hope.

 

[GB5]

The Royals have lost 6 in a row…and we are still 4.5 games back. The last week was our shot. We missed it.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

We threw away our shot when young, scrappy and hungry Hamilton got hurt.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic7NqP_YGlg

 

[8slim]

The Royals have lost 6 in a row…and we are still 4.5 games back. The last week was our shot. We missed it.

Bingo. I said a week ago that we needed a ~6-2 run to whittle the lead down while KC had a tough stretch against Cleveland and Houston.

Instead we went 3-5.

It's probably over. Not only did we not gain ground, but were also about to get passed.

 

[streeter88]

Home in bold, contenders in red (10/22). End of today 4/9 Sox are 70-70; 5.5GB and sporting a 3-7 last 10, and a 5 game losing streak.

Detroit has now passed them, and Seattle is 0.5 GB. At this point they're no longer competing with Minn and KC.

Need to go 18-4 to get to 88 wins.

Toronto (2) - needed 2-0. Got 1-1
Detroit (3) - needed 2-1 or 3-0. Got 1-2.
NYM (3) - needed 3-0. Got 0-3.
CHW (3) - need 3-0
Balt (3) - 1-2 need 2-1
NYY (4) - 2-2 need 3-1
TBR (3) - need 3-0
Minn (3) - need 2-1
Toronto (3) - need 3-0
TBR (3) - need 2-1 or 3-0

WC Contender Record, WCGB, Last 10, Schedule by Rival (contenders in red, home in bold):
CLE: 80-60. +4.5.10/22. 5-5. KC, PIT 3, KC 3, LAD 3, CHW 3, TBR 4, MIN 4, STL 3, CIN 2, HOU 3.
MIN 75-64. 0. 13/23. 3-7. ATL, TOR 3, TBR 3, TBR 1, KC 3, LAA 3, CIN 3, CLE 4, BOS 3, MIA 3, BAL 3.
KC: 76-65. 0. 9/21. 3-7. CLE, HOU 4, CLE 3, MIN 3, NYY 3, PIT 3, DET 3, SFG 3, NAT 3, ATL 3.

Good luck. I think they're done.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Hell, I will be happy if they can hold off Toronto and finish 4th.

 

[streeter88]

It's come to that hasn't it. But let's see if the White Sox, who are sporting a 1 game win streak, can provide some relief starting Friday.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

The “race” between MIN, KC and BOS for the final WC slot has reminded me a lot of that South Park episode where the LLWS teams were trying to get eliminated so they could go home.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Hell, I will be happy if they can hold off Toronto and finish 4th.

I'll take the better draft choice, thankyouverymuch

 

[8slim]

It's over, Johnny. It's over.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Yep. Down to 8% in FG playoffs odds, they'd obviously need an epic run AND some futility from at least one of those central teams to make it.

 

[Fishy1]

Yep. Down to 8% in FG playoffs odds, they'd obviously need an epic run AND some futility from at least one of those central teams to make it.

Yeah, not impossible, but is it gonna happen? 9 times out of ten, no.

 

[Salem's Lot]

I’ve hit my disengagement point. However, if they happen to lose a series to this White Sox team, apathy is going to turn to anger very quickly. They should literally clean house if they don’t win this series.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I’ve hit my disengagement point. However, if they happen to lose a series to this White Sox team, apathy is going to turn to anger very quickly. They should literally clean house if they don’t win this series.

I think I crossed some sort of "disengagement threshold" that wasn't a one way only point about a month or so when they got swept by the Astros.... it's been half step over... .1/4 step back... 1/4 step back over..... and then with the sweep by the D'Backs it was official.

 

[E5 Yaz]

 

[Humphrey]

What's amazing is if they played .500 ball since the All Star break, they'd be right with Minn. and KC, that's all it would have taken.

 

[Ale Xander]

View attachment 88156

Unfortunately that’s for 2 spots not 3

 

[plucy]

If the Sox had the same current record, but played June through now at the same pace as they did in May, never straying too far from .500, would it have been a more satisfying season?

 

[Ale Xander]

If they win (almost)every game from now through 9/22, I’ll be back in.

 

[ookami7m]

Yep. Down to 8% in FG playoffs odds, they'd obviously need an epic run AND some futility from at least one of those central teams to make it.

Yeah, not impossible, but is it gonna happen? 9 times out of ten, no.

About 92 times in 100 really

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

If the Sox had the same current record, but played June through now at the same pace as they did in May, never straying too far from .500, would it have been a more satisfying season?

I think so. We’d certainly feel better about Crawford if he started off horribly and finished the year the way he pitched in April, right? I think the same thing goes for the team in general. We’d feel better with a slow start and strong finish as opposed to the reverse. Whether we should, I don’t know.

 

[Fishy1]

Yep. Down to 8% in FG playoffs odds, they'd obviously need an epic run AND some futility from at least one of those central teams to make it.



About 92 times in 100 really

Oops!

 

[Max Power]

View attachment 88156

The good news is that there's a series with the Twins on the schedule. The only hope to sneak in is to sweep that one. But that will require actual runs to be scored and fewer 4+ run 8th innings given up by the pen.

 

[jwbasham84]

I will continue to watch because baseball is my favorite sport and college football is only on on Saturdays.... but the team is done. The walk parade last night was just a symbol of the season. We have the opportunity, but fail to execute. I am more and more confident for 2025, if we can add some pitching this offseason.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Unfortunately that’s for 2 spots not 3

No shit, Sherlock

 

[E5 Yaz]

The good news is that there's a series with the Twins on the schedule.

The bad news is that it's at home

 

[Fishy1]

The bad news is that it's at home

We're due for some regression, or whatever

 

[E5 Yaz]

Minnesota, Seattle and, most amazingly, Detroit all win. The Tigers were down to their last strike in San Diego, losing 3-0, before Parker Meadows hit a grand slam to give them a 4-3 win