This is the best Red Sox team...ever.

wade boggs chicken dinner

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patoaflac

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RS are 50.5 games up on BAL with 40 games to go. Since the divisional format in 1979, only 3 teams have finished more than 50 GB in a season: the 1979 Toronto Blue Jays (50½ games behind the Orioles in the AL East), the 1998 Tampa Bay Devil Rays (51 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East) and the 1998 Florida Marlins (52 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East).

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/08/17/baltimore-orioles-50-games-below-500/1027068002/
1979 or 1969?
 

bosockboy

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RS are 50.5 games up on BAL with 40 games to go. Since the divisional format in 1979, only 3 teams have finished more than 50 GB in a season: the 1979 Toronto Blue Jays (50½ games behind the Orioles in the AL East), the 1998 Tampa Bay Devil Rays (51 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East) and the 1998 Florida Marlins (52 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East).

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/08/17/baltimore-orioles-50-games-below-500/1027068002/
Pretty reasonable chance it hits 60. Just insane.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Pretty reasonable chance it hits 60. Just insane.
That would put them in striking distance of the record, which is either 62.5 or 63.5 games (posted before and don't want to look up right now). That would be an insane cap to the season.
As a reasonableness check, 538 currently projects 112 wins for the Sox and 51 wins for the Os.
Fangraphs projects the Os to be somewhere around .400 going forward. That seemed high to me until I saw that they still have games left with KC, the White Sox, and a bunch with TOR. Also, it remains to be seen how important the last 10 games are going to be - vs. MFY, BOS, and HOU. Against BOS, they will be playing against most of Pawtucket's roster I would suspect.
 

Al Zarilla

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That would put them in striking distance of the record, which is either 62.5 or 63.5 games (posted before and don't want to look up right now). That would be an insane cap to the season.


Fangraphs projects the Os to be somewhere around .400 going forward. That seemed high to me until I saw that they still have games left with KC, the White Sox, and a bunch with TOR. Also, it remains to be seen how important the last 10 games are going to be - vs. MFY, BOS, and HOU. Against BOS, they will be playing against most of Pawtucket's roster I would suspect.
I don’t know about that. We have a couple of guys in Mookie and JD who should be in awards races, even against each other, and lobbying hard to not be on the pine. It will be interesting to see how Cora manages that. Besides, he’s been giving guys days off all year, do they need to rest that much more anyway, and they do need to keep their swings from getting rusty. Will be interesting, and I hope it comes down to “the nice problem to have” sort of thing. Maybe Cora just doubles the amounts of days off for the guys.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Speaking of 538, after tonight's win it would appear the Sox' Elo has cracked 1600 for the first time ever! At least by their model's attempt to compare different teams across different eras they're now the greatest Red Sox team of all time.

edit: They broke the previous record of 1596, held by the 1912 squad, on the 8th of Aug after Johnson beat the Jays.
 
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jose melendez

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I think what will stand out most in my memory is the enjoyment of watching a Red Sox team that seems to be in every single game. The Sox are currently 13-27 (.325) when trailing by three or more runs, better than the overall winning percentage of two AL teams. They've lost only 11 times all year by four or more runs, and have come back to win (off the top of my head: ) at least four times when trailing by four or more.
Ironically, the SoSH Bash was among their worst performances of the season
 

simplicio

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Speaking of 538, after tonight's win it would appear the Sox' Elo has cracked 1600 for the first time ever! At least by their model's attempt to compare different teams across different eras they're now the greatest Red Sox team of all time.

edit: They broke the previous record of 1596, held by the 1912 squad, on the 8th of Aug after Johnson beat the Jays.
Their current 1605 ELO is also one greater than the 2001 Mariners' peak.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Their current 1605 ELO is also one greater than the 2001 Mariners' peak.
For clarity, I was referring to the historical Elo which touched 1600 for the first time in team history and you are referring to the current season's rating which is a bit higher. They are slightly different as explained by 538 below:

The complete history of MLB
Our Complete History Of MLB interactive contains historical Elo ratings stretching back to the 1871 season. These charts use a simplified Elo system that doesn’t take pitchers, travel or rest into account. Between seasons, it simply reverts the previous season’s ratings toward the mean by one-third, rather than using projection systems to set preseason ratings.

This means that the Elo ratings in our Complete History of MLB won’t exactly match the team ratings in our MLB Predictions. (Why use two systems? The projection systems we use to generate preseason ratings aren’t available back to 1871. Also, using a simplified rating system for the historical ratings gives us the flexibility to alter our current-season forecast’s methodology from year to year while keeping our historical Elo ratings unchanged.) They’re still pretty useful, however, when it comes to measuring the ebbs and flows of a franchise’s fate over time. Plus, just like our forecast model, our historical Elo ratings will update with the results of each game this season.

The current system to which you refer is presumably a bit more accurate for predicting wins but the historical system is what should be used for comparing teams across different eras since its methodology doesn't change year-by-year. After yesterday's loss the Sox's historical Elo has dipped back down to 1597.625 (still higher than in any other year but this one) whereas the current rating is 1602.919 (both are listed in the csv file that you can download from the site).

Also - though this is even more nitpicky - it's not ELO in that it's not an acronym made from words starting with those letters. Elo is named for the Hungarian-American chess master Arpad Elo who devised the system.

edit: so the 2001 M's still have a higher peak (1603.561) than the 2018 Sox (1600.032) though, surprisingly the 2001 A's peaked even higher at 1606.422!
 
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uk_sox_fan

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So using the historical Elo, the 2018 Red Sox are the 14th team to have reached the 1600 threshold since WWII and the 9th to have done so during the regular season. Having done so in Game 124 (Aug 18) they are the 4th quickest to do so in terms of both calendar and games played and at 88-36 .710 had the 5th highest winning percentage of those who went over 1600 for the first time in their respective season.

Post-war teams that have cracked 1600:
NYY: 1953, 1954, 1998, 2009*
CLE: 1954, 1995*, 2017
BAL: 1970*, 1971*
CIN: 1975*, 1976
OAK: 2001
SEA: 2001
BOS: 2018

*first broke through 1600 during the post-season

Earliest (by games played) to achieve 1600 Elo (reg season only):

Code:
  Team   date   Game    Rec  Win%  MaxElo
'53 NYY 14-Jun Gm  52  41-11 .788  1603.0
'98 NYY 09-Jul Gm  82  62-20 .756  1618.4
'76 CIN 13-Aug Gm 116  76-40 .655  1600.1 (only day above 1600)
'18 BOS 18-Aug Gm 124  88-36 .710  1600.0
'54 NYY 29-Aug Gm 129  89-40 .690  1600.6
'54 CLE 11-Sep Gm 142 102-40 .718  1609.8
'17 CLE 21-Sep Gm 155  97-58 .626  1606.7
'01 OAK 04-Oct Gm 159  99-60 .623  1606.4
'01 SEA 04-Oct Gm 159 114-45 .717  1603.6
 

jon abbey

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Those 2001 A’s had the best record of all time after the ASB, insane that they were in the same division as the 116 win Mariners and even more insane that NY knocked out both of them.
 

jon abbey

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So there have been five AL teams to hit 1600 in the regular season in the last sixty years. Three were beaten in the AL playoffs by the Yankees, one was the 1998 Yankees, and the fifth is this year’s steamrolling Red Sox.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Why stop there? Of the four remaining teams since WWII two were the 53/54 Yankees, one was the Indians juggernaut that beat those 54 Yankees by 8 games and one was the Big Red Machine that swept the Yankees 4-0 in the '76 World Series. (Amazing that only one NL team has made the cut in the regular season and they only did it for 1 game)
 

uk_sox_fan

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Another stat to dwell on... The Sox have now had two 3-game losing streaks (and no 4+ ones) this year. The 10 games that began with the first such streak on Apr 21 in Oakland and ending May 1 vs KC has so far been their only 4-6 mark for any 10 games this season. I've looked at all top seasons played since 1901 that I could think of (including all with winning percentages above .700 as well as most listed by the baseball almanac as the best teams ever) and found just ONE team that had one or no losing record in all 10-game segments of the season: the 103-36 1902 Pirates (they had no losing streaks over 2 games and were never worse than 5-5 in any 10-game stretch).

The Sox are 3-4 in their past 7 games so they need to win 2 of their next 3 and 4 of their next 6 to avoid a second 4-6 stretch, but if they can do so and subsequently keep this consistency up the rest of the way, they'll have achieved something that hasn't been done by any team (that I could find) in the last 116 years.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Here's the total of Boston's 10-game stretches so far this season:
1 x 10-0
21 x 9-1
20 x 8-2
30 x 7-3
30 x 6-4
16 x 5-5
1 x 4-6

Just astounding consistency really!
 

DJnVa

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Sox are now just the 5th team since 1961 to win 90 of their first 129 games
 

simplicio

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538 currently gives the Red Sox a 29% chance to win it all. The top 7 NL teams combined are at 28%.
 

millionthcustomer

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Here's an updated list (as of 8/24) of the past Red Sox teams' win totals that the 2018 team has surpassed (new entries in blue):

1908
1909
1910-11
1913
1918* (won WS)
1919-37
1938-39 (Jimmy Foxx 1938 AL MVP)
1941
1943-45
1947
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956-58
1968-70
1971-72
1973
1974
1976
1980
1981* (strike-shortened season)
1982
1983
1984
1985
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992-93
1994* (strike-shortened season)
1995 (Mo Vaughn AL MVP)
1996
1997
2000
2006
2010

2012
2014-15
 

Curtis Pride

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Teams left to surpass (as of 8/24):
1901-02 (as Boston Americans)
-- 1903 - 91
-- 1904 - 95
1905-07 (as Boston Americans)
1908-11
-- 1912 - 105
1913
-- 1914 - 91
-- 1915 - 101
-- 1916 - 91
-- 1917 - 90
1918-41
-- 1942 - 93
1943-45
-- 1946 - 104
1947
-- 1948 - 96
-- 1949 - 96
-- 1950 - 94
1951-66
-- 1967 - 92
1968-74
-- 1975 - 95
1976
-- 1977 - 97
-- 1978 - 99
-- 1979 - 91
1980-85
-- 1986 - 95
1987-97
-- 1998 - 92
-- 1999 - 94
2000-01
-- 2002 - 93
-- 2003 - 95
-- 2004 - 98
-- 2005 - 95
2006
-- 2007 - 96
-- 2008 - 95
-- 2009 - 95
2010
-- 2011 - 90
2012
-- 2013 - 97
2014-15
-- 2016 - 93
-- 2017 - 93
 
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The Raccoon

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Here's an updated list (as of 8/24) of the past Red Sox teams' win totals that the 2018 team has surpassed (new entries in blue):
...
Little suggestion/idea: Since I expect/hope that this list will get longer during the last 1+ month of the season, you could try to condense the black numbers for more readability.
Example for the 50's in your last post:
1947
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956-58
1951 is a new entry and therefore stays in a line by itself (in blue). 1952-1958 are older entries and get condensed into one single line... which would result in:
...
1947
1951
1952-58
...

And the last update of your list on Sept. 30th could end up being only a single line:
1901-2017
 

uk_sox_fan

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538 currently gives the Red Sox a 29% chance to win it all. The top 7 NL teams combined are at 28%.
There are actually 8 NL teams listed at 1% or higher and they combine for 33%. Because 538 doesn't show rounding, their AL/NL split could be as little as 63.5%/36.5% which isn't too far off the implied Vegas odds (though I haven't been able to find those - SirPsycho, do you have a link for your implied 58%?)
 

SirPsychoSquints

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There are actually 8 NL teams listed at 1% or higher and they combine for 33%. Because 538 doesn't show rounding, their AL/NL split could be as little as 63.5%/36.5% which isn't too far off the implied Vegas odds (though I haven't been able to find those - SirPsycho, do you have a link for your implied 58%?)
I can't access betting sites from work - it was from the MLB Future Odds on VegasInsider.com. I calculated the implied odds - I believe correctly :)
 

uk_sox_fan

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I can't access betting sites from work - it was from the MLB Future Odds on VegasInsider.com. I calculated the implied odds - I believe correctly :)
Ok, so I assume then that you added up the individual team odds and then divided by the sum (i.e. the VIG if you were to bet on all teams on offer) to scale it? Doing that I get 57.4% to 46.8% but that's not really fool-proof as you can't lock it in. Really all you can say from betting arbitrage is that the AL is between 50.4% and 66.9% likely to win.

Another consideration on the 538 estimate is the likelihood that the AL will have home field advantage. Working backwards and assuming a .540 average winning percentage for the home team (I believe this is the 10-year average for all teams) it would take a 6.9% natural advantage (i.e. a win probability of .569 at a neutral site and thus a .609 probability at home and .529 away) for the team with HFA to have a 66% chance of winning the Series (10.4% in 4 games, 16.8% in 5, 20.8% in 6 and 18.0% in 7 games). That's a money line of -132 (with no VIG) so equivalent to about -140 for a typical line on a team with similar probabilities of winning. On Tuesday Houston (with Peacock starting) was -145 away to Seattle (Vincent) as a comparison. Or closer to home Boston (Eovaldi) was -143 at home to Cleveland (Bieber).

I don't think it's that unreasonable and certainly shouldn't be called ridiculous.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Ok, so I assume then that you added up the individual team odds and then divided by the sum (i.e. the VIG if you were to bet on all teams on offer) to scale it? Doing that I get 57.4% to 46.8% but that's not really fool-proof as you can't lock it in. Really all you can say from betting arbitrage is that the AL is between 50.4% and 66.9% likely to win.

Another consideration on the 538 estimate is the likelihood that the AL will have home field advantage. Working backwards and assuming a .540 average winning percentage for the home team (I believe this is the 10-year average for all teams) it would take a 6.9% natural advantage (i.e. a win probability of .569 at a neutral site and thus a .609 probability at home and .529 away) for the team with HFA to have a 66% chance of winning the Series (10.4% in 4 games, 16.8% in 5, 20.8% in 6 and 18.0% in 7 games). That's a money line of -132 (with no VIG) so equivalent to about -140 for a typical line on a team with similar probabilities of winning. On Tuesday Houston (with Peacock starting) was -145 away to Seattle (Vincent) as a comparison. Or closer to home Boston (Eovaldi) was -143 at home to Cleveland (Bieber).

I don't think it's that unreasonable and certainly shouldn't be called ridiculous.
I'm not sure I'm following the math above - in 4 games, there is no home field advantage. In 6 games, there is no home field advantage. Am I reading this wrong?

Edit: Yes, I was reading it wrong.

Edit 2: You're saying that -132 is equivalent to... what exactly? A .569 winning percentage? Yes you are!
 

charlieoscar

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Look, if you’re going to cherry-pick a random eight year sequence when the concept is ten years you can prove most any position.




Yes, I know.
Yes, you know that in order to get the winning percentage to .540 by extending the data for the eight years I provided data to ten years that the home team would have had to have had a winning percentage of .550 for 2008 and 2009? Or was it something else you knew?

I provided factual data for the past eight years after some posted, "and assuming a .540 average winning percentage for the home team (I believe this is the 10-year average for all teams)." Now, who the fuck is cherry-picking?
 

Salem's Lot

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bsj

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Because no division winning teams have ever gotten swept in a late season series. Wait a minute here’s one.


https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2007-schedule-scores.shtml

And here’s another one that actually lost 6 of 8 in August to drop their division lead to one. I wonder what happened to that team.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013-schedule-scores.shtml
Keep burying your head till its a 3 game lead with a 3 game yankees in the Bronx comng up and suddenly those goons in the Bronx are lit...still will be fine for you i imagine
 

Salem's Lot

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Keep burying your head till its a 3 game lead with a 3 game yankees in the Bronx comng up and suddenly those goons in the Bronx are lit...still will be fine for you i imagine
I’m confident in this team. If you want to shit your pants every day for the next month then that’s your business. This years club has played well enough for long enough that a three game losing streak isn’t enough to start panicking. I don’t care what happened in previous years.