The WAR Discussion

[AB in DC]

I don't think you're missing anything and not sure how B-Ref differs.  Fangraphs has him at 3.2 BsR (baserunning runs above average) which incorporates (quoting directly from Fangraphs):
 
"1) On a hit, advancing an extra base, not advancing an extra base, or getting thrown out trying to advance an extra base, as long as no other base runner is blocking an advance.
 
2) A batter getting thrown out trying to advance an extra base on a hit (if he successfully does, we don’t know it, as he is simply awarded a double, for example, on a usual single where he advances an extra base).
 
3) On a hit, the batter advancing, not advancing, or getting thrown out when a runner is safe or out advancing an extra base.

 
4) Trailing runners advancing, not advancing or getting thrown out when a leading runner is safe or out trying to advance an extra base on a hit or an out. This is basically lumped together with #1 above.
 
5) Runners trying to advance on fly ball outs – i.e. tagging up.
 
6) As mentioned above, on ground balls to the infield, runners on first staying out of the force or DP at second base, whether the batter is out or is safe on a FC.
 
7) Also as mentioned above, a runner on second advancing or not (or getting thrown out) on a ground ball hit to SS or 3B.
Runners on third base advancing, not advancing, or getting thrown out at home on a ground ball are not considered (on air balls they are). Runner advances or outs on WP or PB are not considered either.*

 

 
 
8) Getting hit by a batted ball ??

 

[BoredViewer]

 
Just because these stats are the best we have, that doesn't mean we shouldn't acknowledge and adjust for the inherent weakness in them. I probably shouldn't be quite so forgiving of oWAR, either as it includes a base running component which is just as problematic as the defensive component, if not more so. I'm more familiar with Fangraphs' UBR, though, so I don't want to dig any deeper without looking at it more closely first. I will say that even in just measuring what happened on the field, these stats are still highly subjective and have large enough error bars that I'm not comfortable trusting them in small samples. I mean, do we really believe that Brett Gardner saved 26.1 runs in left field in 2011?

 
Having no idea how that is calculated - I could certainly see how a good fielder, with the right set of circumstances (difficult chances with lots of men in scoring position), might appear to save that many runs or more... to someone that views the game like I do.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

 
Having no idea how that is calculated - I could certainly see how a good fielder, with the right set of circumstances (difficult chances with lots of men in scoring position), might appear to save that many runs or more... to someone that views the game like I do.

Read me.

 

[crystalline]

Thanks, crystalline. That's more or less what I thought.
 
And so the second question is, how do we determine what the 95% CI is for any given WAR number? Seems like a pretty complicated question since the WAR number is an amalgamation of multiple pieces of data measured in different ways, right?

I would think you could approximate a CI/standard error by looking at year to year variation. One could cook up a reasonable CI estimate for Mookie given WAR data for players this season and for last season after the same number of games.

 

[In my lifetime]

I am sure teams have their own statistical calculations of true hitting performance, but I don't think I have ever seen a "pure" hitting index.  That is a calculated number measuring how well a hitter is contacting the ball
 
I am thinking about something along the lines of a calculated number that encompasses the following :
BABIP
% of LD, FB, POP, GB and the expected rate of hits from each when combined with the speed of the batted ball
A Distribution of batted balls with a measure of the % of the field may also be useful to include.  Using the full field is a skill (like hitting the ball at a velocity) that should pay off in a higher BABIP.
 
 
This number unlike BABIP would not have to be compared to a hitter's previous performance, as a rough approximation of good/bad luck. Since clearly hitters sometimes get better or worse than their career averages.
This number would also be unlike WAR, since it would be a measure of how well the ball is hit as opposed to the results.
 
Does this type of measured performance exist already?