The Second Half

tims4wins

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The Sox have road trips of 11, 11, 10, and 9 games during the second half. Both 11 game trips come without an off day, and one is a west coast trip. After opening up the second half in NY, they are home for 9 in a row: 2 vs. SF, 4 vs. Minnesota, and 3 vs. Detroit. Seems like they need to get off to a strong start coming out of the break because the schedule gets brutal after that.

Anyway, thought it would be good to have kind of a catch-all discussion on the second half schedule, and we could also use this as a place to keep tabs on the division / wild card competition.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Well this is probably a good place since so many of the other threads are tied into other topics while discussing "needs".
Despite all the injuries, the offense keeps on offending... the LF issue continues to not really be an issue and the same with the catcher. The creeping and continued non-DL injuries to Shaw, Hanley and Ortiz have me more worried there- as those injuries can lead to poor performance, shit streaks and creating some bad habits in the box but we continue to excel at the plate so none of those issues have really hampered the team.
We keep getting positive signs from Price that he's back on track then he'll have 2 shitty starts in a row. Obviously we need him to be the consistent ace of the team.... if he can do that and Wright and Porcello can keep doing what they've done all season, that's a pretty solid playoff rotation that I'd feel happy with. Obviously to get there we'll either need Clay, Kelly, EdRod, etc... etc... reasonable trade SP candidate, etc..... etc... to step up and be just good. That's it. Just... good...
How long Kimbrell will be out is an issue. The struggles and age of Koji. Taz' overuse/ineffectiveness. The addition of Ziegler and Barnes seeming to be emerging into a legit hi-leverage late inning guy is making me feel better too.
My overall judgement on this team is to either get a guy like Hellickson for the number 5 spot or stand pat. I think we can make the playoffs (possibly win the division) with the team we have right now, and while we don't match up with teams like the Cubs, Nats, Mets or Giants on the playoff rotation, luck and good timing could get us another WS victory as we're presently constructed.

The only issue with winning another WS is we'd be stuck with Farrell for another 3 years!

I keed!
 

Stan Papi Was Framed

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hopefully the all star break helps Shaw, Hanley, Taz, Holt get better. hopefully EdRod is ready for his next start. I get the sense DD is trying to find a way to get Hill--that'd be great if he's not wildly expensive. The A's certainly are in a good spot, though. Hellickson's HR rate looks like a bit of a concern, but I can see that it'd be worth taking a chance on him if they can't get Hill (and getting Hill looks hard). do they have someone for the #4 spot in the rotation right now? I guess it's EdRod if he can take it...
 

johnnywayback

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I think the key here is depth, both on the bench and in the bullpen. You can never count on everyone staying healthy, and the schedule heightens that concern.

On the bench, we've upgraded Rutledge to Hill and, uh, side-graded Hernandez to Martinez. I'd been hoping they might upgrade on the Holt/Brentz platoon in LF. My first choice would have been to get Reddick or Carlos Gonzalez and have Holt be the upgrade on Hernandez, but perhaps the prospect of Benintendi jumping AAA gives us an internal option for that, as well. And I guess they feel like Brentz can play the role of Chris Young acceptably until Young is healthy. In any event, we're now a bit better insulated against the prospect of Ryan LaMarre or Deven Marrero getting starts, even if I'd like one more layer there.

In the bullpen, assuming Kimbrel comes back in a month looking like Kimbrel, we're in better-than-expected shape with the addition of Ziegler and the emergence of Barnes and Hembree as potentially cromulent high-leverage options -- even if Tazawa's shoulder and Uehara's old-being limit their effectiveness. Kimbrel, Ziegler, Uehara, Tazawa, Barnes, Hembree, Ross, Layne, and, hell, maybe Joe Kelly -- if three or four of those guys stay healthy and effective, we'll be fine.

The point is, with a grueling schedule, I think the key is to have as many players available as possible who you wouldn't mind being thrust into key situations. So I'll be watching closely to see not just whether they add more of those guys via trade or promotion, but also how people who fit that description in a fringe way (Brentz and Martinez on the bench, Barnes and Ross in the pen) perform in the opportunities they're given.
 

Saints Rest

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It's interesting the similarities in the rotation to the 2002-2003 Sox:
  • Pedro : Price
  • Wakefield : Wright
  • Lowe : Porcello
As someone has noted in other threads (pitching target thread, I think), this team needs a John Burkett (aka The Napkin). Neither 2002 or 2003 had much past those three, especially in 2003. (The Napkin in 2002 was pretty decent.)

That said, this year's offense is actually rated out better by OPS+ (117 vs 116). And the pitching (ranked by ERA+ is remarkably close (103 this year vs 104 in 2003). The 2002 team was noticeably better in pitching (ERA+ at 122) and notably worse at batting (OPS+ of 106).

So overall, it's pretty remarkable how similar this year's team is to 2003. Let's hope that Farrell does better than Gump when the playoffs roll around.
 

YTF

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I think that overall, the bench is better suited than it was a week or two ago to face the coming half and the schedule that goes along with it. Right now Holt's health is the wildcard. IF he's healthy and able to stay off the DL, he, Hill and Martinez along with Shaw present a great deal of flexibility that will allow for perhaps some sort of rotation of off days. Other than being able to rest guys during long stretches, you could conceivably give several players the day off on either side of an off day and still field a strong team.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Assuming Farrell starts EdRo on 7/15, 7/20, 7/25, and 7/30...and Buchholz 7/23 and 7/28...DDski will only have more 6 games to assess how much starting pitching the Sox need to acquire at the 8/1 deadline.

With off days, the Sox are looking at 15 GS from the #4 starter (currently EdRo: 6.96 FIP, 5.36 SIERA) and only 11 GS from the #5 starter (currently Buchholz: 6.05 FIP, 5.37 SIERA) to go along with 16 GS from Porcello and 15 each from Price and Wright.

Strap in!
 

BuellMiller

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Mar 25, 2015
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Fortunately, Price's OPS after 100 pitches (.388) is a lot lower than all his other splits (SSS of course), so Gump/Farrell can leave him in as long as he wants. If he can just get through the first 50 pitches, he'll be in good shape, of course (but that's been a pretty big if so far this season). Maybe we should just bring back Gump to manage Price's starts (it will also keep the bullpen fresh...he probably wouldn't even warm up Koji, Taz, or Kimbrel at all). (totally not bitter any more i swear even after 13 years. no, i'm not shaking uncontrollably, why do you ask?)
 

E5 Yaz

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From yesterday's game thread

75 games to go ... 31 at home, 44 on the road

Two West Coast trips ... one 11 gamer to the Angels Mariners and Dodgers; the other six games at Oakland and San Diego, which ends with a three game stop in Toronto

There's also an 11 game, four city trip (Cle to Balt to Det to Tampa Bay) and a late season 10 game trip to Baltimore, Tampa Bay and the Bidet

The home game opponents, beyond the AL East, are the Giants, Twins, Tigers, D'backs and Royals.

There is one -- 1 -- scheduled off day between July 19 and August 31. During that timespan, between July 28 and August 25, they play 6 games at home and 22 on the road
 

phenweigh

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The Sox have 44 more road games and only 31 more home games remaining. I projected the rest of the season out based on Pythagorean run differential, calculating home and road games separately, and end up with 91 wins. Which is ~1 win more than Fangraphs projects.

So this macro look makes it seem like the Sox have a good chance to make the playoffs or even win the division (Fangraphs projects the Sox to have the most wins in the AL East). But it seems to me this macro look based on season results to date is optimistically based on the offense continuing its torrid pace. Realistically ... IMO ... Price, Wright, and Porcello need to repeat their first half results, and somebody (either internally or through acquisition) needs to step up in the rotation. If that doesn't happen, I take zero stock in those projections because ...

On May 25 (and again on May 31) the Sox hit their high water mark in games above 0.500 at 12. They are one game under 0.500 since. A 0.500 projection for the rest of the season, especially considering the home/road schedule, just feels like the more realistic projection. That would be ~87 wins. That might be enough for the play-in game.

In summary, it looks to me like the righting of the 4/5 starter ship makes this team a true contender.
 

geoduck no quahog

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I think the discussion also needs an analysis of the Blue Jays and Orioles. I'll start looking at them but I'm not very good at this.
 

C4CRVT

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Who's the real competition in the AL? Baltimore, Toronto, Cleveland and Texas with Houston not too far in the rear view. The likes of Detroit, KC, Seattle and Chicago are a hot streak away.

By simple analysis of ERA+ and OPS+, here's how we stack up:

BOS 103/117
BAL 104/108
TOR 114/106
CLE 129/93
TEX 104/96

HOU 109/98

DET 93/105
KC 101/91
CHW101/95
SEA 106/109

The three top teams in the East seem to be good, (somewhat) well balanced teams. Cleveland is pitching lights out, Texas isn't as good as their record says they are and Seattle is better than their record.
 
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DeadlySplitter

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Toronto mostly cleaned up on their homestand leading to the break as well (8-3 I believe), all against decent or better AL Central teams. Their offense when in high gear is brutal as we've seen and they could outclass BAL in the end. But, there is concern Sanchez cannot go a full season as a starter yet, Stroman has not really delivered as a even a #2 guy yet, and Estrada has back issues.

The numbers have said for awhile all three of us were going to win 86-90 games in a sprint to the finish, and as of now I don't see any reason that won't happen. Need to play .500 or a bit better in the brutal stretch, survive, win a couple key series against TOR/BAL to potentially edge out the division. While Cleveland and Houston have been the hottest teams the past month, we've historically handled them - I would feel comfortable in any short series against the AL right now, even if we are the 3 seed.
 

phenweigh

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After the July 27th game, assuming no rainouts, the Sox will have 41 away games and 22 home games remaining. That makes me think the first 12 games coming out of the break will have magnified importance.
 

C4CRVT

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In looking at Toronto, I think it's interesting that they have a couple of older SPs who are really having career years.

J. A. Happ at the age of 33 is putting up an ERA of 3.36. His career ERA is 4.06 including this year. His XFIP is 4.29 so he's due for some regression.
Marco Estrada at the age of 33 is putting up an ERA of 2.93 against his career ERA of 3.82. His XFIP is 4.51 so he may be due for some regression too.

As DS says above, their lineup could get hot and offset those two regressing.
 

nvalvo

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After the July 27th game, assuming no rainouts, the Sox will have 41 away games and 22 home games remaining. That makes me think the first 12 games coming out of the break will have magnified importance.
Especially because the Sox are a .600 team at home and a .500 team — well, one win above at 19-18 — on the road.
 

tims4wins

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So far, so good. 4 out of 5 while the O's have lost a few. Need to get 5 of the 7 vs. the Twinkies and Detroit before the big west coast 11 gamer, which will be an exercise in survival - just hoping to break even.