The Game Goat Thread: Wk 13 vs Eagles

[nazz45]

I thought Kline has been our worst OL the last few weeks. He was very solid early this season but Derek Wolfe used him as a his personal turnstile last week and yesterday he was both confused (stunt that lead to first sack) and physically overmatched quite a bit. No one on the interior has done much of anything since the Giants game. Really odd because earlier this year they were arguably the strength of the team and now they are clearly a weakness.

To be fair, he was clearly yanked/held by the back of his helmet by the slanting DT and could not pivot back to his gap - whether he would have is another question. He has, however, struggled the past few weeks (and in this game - Vinny Curry in particular just overpowered him at times). Just wouldn't ding him too badly on that one.

 

[dynomite]

I've never seen anyone try to throw a pass away like that; that would be super-weird. I'm not sure what he expected LaFell to do - as nazz45 notes, there wasn't really anywhere he could go to get open, so it probably doesn't matter. Maybe Brady thought he could get a DPI or LaFell would haul in a jump ball? I don't know.

Agreed, it implies he was trying to throw it away through he back of the end zone. Given he's releasing the ball at midfield, that would have been a neat trick.

 

[williams_482]

Anyone have stats on the Patriots' onside recovery rate? I know it must be a small sample size, and my memory is likely biased by placing emphasis on the successful outcomes, but it seems to me that they've been pretty good at it over the years. I wonder if Bellichick thinks their coaching in this area gives them an edge and if that factored into the decision.

NFL.com says the Patriots have recovered 3 of the 8 onside kicks Ghost has attempted in his regular season career. That leaves out any situations like today when another player did the kicking (none spring to mind) and any playoff games (0/1 vst the Jets in 2010, probably a couple others).

Regardless, that's a pretty high percentage in a sample far too small to draw any conclusions.

For reference, regular "desperation" onsides kicks are recovered about 13% of the time, "surprise" onsides kicks are around 50/50.

 

[Ed Hillel]

On the second INT, Brady had Amendola streaking 1 on 1 on the other side. Throwing to LaFell in that coverage crazy stupid for a guy of Brady's caliber. He's made a number of those decisions (throwing into heavy coverage) the past 3 weeks, at least 3 times on first down, 2 of which led to interceptions. Third and long I can at least understand.

As for the last onsides kick, I think the best play there is to pop the ball up past the initial line and in front of the deep back. I think you've got maybe a 10-15% chance to recover with the defenders leaning forward at contact and the ball bouncing around and the downside is they start the ball on maybe the 30 or so. The other option is to just drill it low at the guy in the middle. If it hits him, great, if not, same kind of effect as the pop up.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Goats aside, as Drew Dog pointed out...I'm scared to death that Brady will be killed before the playoffs.

I'm not so great at football ins and outs, but it seems to me that without Gronkowski (receiving or blocking) and Edelman (and maybe a 90% Amendola)...and no real long threat - Brady can't overcome the O-Line with those quick passes to short but open routes. I only mention long routes because they make the coverage more honest.

If this keeps up, losing last weekend doesn't matter.

 

[simplyeric]

Just a nitpick as I read through the thread. Ebner's kick was not a "pooch". A pooch is a punt. Ebner executed a drop kick...just like Flutie did for an extra point way back when. You can't punt on a kick-off, so you can't pooch in that situation either.

Clearly it was an attempt to catch the Eagles napping and drop the kick behind their front line but well in front of the normal returners. It wasn't executed perfectly (needed more hang time) but it's a credit to the Eagles special teamers to react and make the play on something there's no way they were prepared for.

I thought it was a reasonable risk since the Eagles offense weren't moving the ball especially well and the net loss if it fails is about 20 yards of field position. That's a kill shot kind of gamble, and it shows signs of trust in the defense that even if it fails, they'll hold the Eagles there and not give up a score. That gamble failed about as much as it could, but that doesn't mean it wasn't thought out.

Anyone know of a link to a video of that play?

 

[djbayko]

Anyone know of a link to a video of that play?

http://a.video.nfl.com/films/2015/NFL_COM/in-game-highlight/NFLCOM/REG/13/151206_bp_Gostkowski_tries_wacky_kick_361649_3200k.mp4

 

[Harry Hooper]

Seeing that play again, it really looked poised to bounce downfield around another 12 yards, but as someone noted uphread, the Eagles player made a great reaction and diving grab there.

 

[tims4wins]

BB talked about it more yesterday. To paraphrase he said if he 100% knew the outcome would be the Eagles ball on the 41 then obviously he wouldn't have run the play, but the idea was to not give up a return opportunity and to try to get that ball bouncing in no man's land where best case Pats recover and worst case it bounces inside the 30 or whatever. He said Eagles play with 6 guys on the line and then the other guys are back deep so there is a ton of real estate between.

 

[j44thor]

BB talked about it more yesterday. To paraphrase he said if he 100% knew the outcome would be the Eagles ball on the 41 then obviously he wouldn't have run the play, but the idea was to not give up a return opportunity and to try to get that ball bouncing in no man's land where best case Pats recover and worst case it bounces inside the 30 or whatever. He said Eagles play with 6 guys on the line and then the other guys are back deep so there is a ton of real estate between.

If that was the intention then why not simply squib kick it? By having Ebner kick it they are essentially taking another guy out of the play, at least initially. I'm sure Ghost can perform a squib kick if the desired outcome was to simply get the ball past the first line of defenders.

 

[Stitch01]

Because they wanted to put the defenders in a bit on an unfamiliar situation and a squib kick off a tee is going to be easier for the returning team to recover as it doesn't allow the kicking team as much time to get down the field to recover the ball as something that hangs in the air for a bit and is less likely to bounce funny.

But whatever, they lost 20 yards of field position, such is life.

 

[tims4wins]

I would imagine that confusion would have something to do with it. On punts players are taught not to touch it or else it becomes live. Maybe someone on the Eagles lets it bounce because he thinks the same rules apply. It is about forcing the opponent to think on the fly and adjust. The Eagles did, credit to them.

 

[Silverdude2167]

If that was the intention then why not simply squib kick it? By having Ebner kick it they are essentially taking another guy out of the play, at least initially. I'm sure Ghost can perform a squib kick if the desired outcome was to simply get the ball past the first line of defenders.

I am willing to beat with the drop kick or whatever we are calling it Ebner can theoretically get much greater height on the kick. The height will allow it to land in no-mans land and take a more vertical bounce that would allow the kick-team a better chance to recover the ball.

Complete guess on my part.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I am willing to beat with the drop kick or whatever we are calling it Ebner can theoretically get much greater height on the kick. The height will allow it to land in no-mans land and take a more vertical bounce that would allow the kick-team a better chance to recover the ball.

Complete guess on my part.

Problem with the drop-kick is the Eagles got a full second, maybe more, to see something funky was coming when the ball was tossed to Ebner. A second is a lot. On an onside kick, or a squib kick, Gost, or any good kicker, doesn't give any inkling of what is happening until his foot hits the ball. OK, on obvious onside kick situations, the kicking team is lined up different, but you can also execute it from a normal look.

 

[dynomite]

Volin has a breakdown of some key plays up.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/12/08/onfoot/ZYRD1YSAHnP2nkZCuFEEQJ/story.html

Within, he shows that Chandler was open for a TD on the goal line Pick-6 (he says Brady is playing flustered in general, though, which given his performance in Denver just last week doesn't seem warranted), and highlights the poor special teams plays.

He also questions whether yesterday was the right time for the Amendola to Brady trick play, which I guess is an interesting question (America's Game highlighted that Amendola called off the Edelman pass play in KC last year and it was important against Baltimore)... But with Gronk and Edelman back we hopefully won't need that kind of play. Either way, I'm sure there's plenty more trick plays up McDaniels' sleeve.

Edit: I'm also not sure what he means by claiming they abandoned the run too early.
1 -- I guess you could argue they should have run on their 1st drive after halftime after Brady sneaked for the new set of downs -- they had 1st and 2nd and 10 from our 31, and should probably have run on one of those.

2 -- Their 2nd drive they got to the Eagles 1 and White lost 4 yards.

3 -- I was surprised that they passed on their 3rd drive after halftime after the holding call -- they decided to pass on both 1st and 2nd and 20, although they ended up converting. Then Brady got sacked on 1st and 10 and they had to pass and eventually punt.

After that Brady had the trick play, the INT, and the Eagles went up 35-14 and they weren't running.

So that's maybe 2-3 more runs they could have attempted? Doesn't seem like a major issue, particularly if those calls were made because of what defensive alignment they saw on the field.

 

[DJnVa]

Another reporter asked why they abandoned the run "after going up by 14 points".

They never had the ball on offense when they were up 14. They scored, did the onside kick, the Eagles scored, and it was 14-7.

Pats got ball back and went 3 and out, then Eagles punted. Then Pats got the ball, ran twice for first down and after starting on the 13, were unexpectedly on the 33 after the 2 runs and went to the pass, but Brady was sacked on first down, they ran on second and long, and threw incomplete on third, before the fateful punt.

 

[weeba]

While the OL play has been bad, not having his top 3 receivers is affecting his release as well

 

[dcmissle]

While the OL play has been bad, not having his top 3 receivers is affecting his release as well

TB: "I have to make good decisions with the football ... If I turn it over twice, we don't have a good chance to win."

I don't know if there has been a more frustrating loss the last 16 years. More costly, yes; the playoff losses at home to Baltimore and on the road to Denver. Worse losses, to be sure; last year at KC and the "hate the coach" game at Buffalo. But I find this the most frustrating because the game was important and right there for the taking. And because it was so unPatriotlike with the special teams meltdowns and carelessness with the football. This one hurts.

 

[Stitch01]

It wasn't even the most frustrating loss in the last two weeks IMO.

 

[dynomite]

I don't know if there has been a more frustrating loss the last 16 years.

Man, usually I feel like most of us are in agreement, but I don't get this at all.

During the game and after I was as calm and unconcerned as I have ever been during a Pats loss (apart from maybe Week 17 in '05 and last year.

As you say, the Pats are clearly far better than the Eagles, and indeed would have won the game fairly easily without a series of unusual plays. On top of that, they were playing without crucial players that will return soon: Gronk, Edelman, Hightower, and even Coleman.

They lost a regular season game in early December and are still in the driver's seat for at least the #2 seed and quite possibly the #1. If they do so, this game will be a quirky footnote, akin to that bizarre 4th quarter collapse in Miami in '04.

I don't think you're serious about it hurting more than playoff losses. (2005, with Watson's Miracle play being ignored? 2006, where we blew an enormous lead against Peyton Manning and a Super Bowl berth against Rex Grossman? 2007, where we were seconds from immortality? Watching Rex and Sanchize celebrate in Foxboro in 2010? The 2011 Manningham catch? The Ravens embarrassing us at home in 2009 and 2012?)

But even as far as the regular season goes, this wasn't even in the same universe for me as, say... last week. Where penalties, poor defense, injuries and a muffed punt by our 6th WR cost us an incredible road win and a chance at a perfect season.

Or last year in Kansas City, when every unit on the field was physically dominated, Brady got pulled, and it felt like the whole country was writing Brady's obituary. Or 2012 Week 3 in Baltimore (the replacement ref debacle), another bitter road loss to a rival that sent us to 1-2... Or Week 6 that year in Seattle (blowing a 10-point 4th quarter lead)... Or Week 9 in 2011 (yet another last minute loss to the Giants)... Or Week 15 in Miami in 2013 (cost us the 1 seed, Fins pick Brady off in the end zone with 2 seconds left).

This one doesn't even rate for me. It was a little disappointing... But when we beat Houston on Sunday night and are treated to yet another vintage atom Brady performance and bask in his greatness, I won't even be able to recall much of the Eagles game.

Edit: haha Stich and I took opposite approaches.

Edit2: DC -- this game reminded me of the 2012 Week 2 home loss to the Kevin Kolb 5-11 Cardinals. I bet you don't even remember that game. Why should you? That was a crappy Cards team that went up 20-9 in the 2nd half thanks in part to a blocked punt that gave them the ball on our 2. At the end we forced their RB to fumble and gave us a chance to win... But Woodhead's TD was nullified by a phantom hold on Gronk, Ghost's 5th FG try just missed, and we lost. A strange game that ultimately had no bearing on the rest of the season.

 

[dcmissle]

I thought I made it clear that playoff loses are more costly, and of course hurt more for that reason alone. I said frustrating, and that's in the eye of the beholder, I guess.

 

[dynomite]

I thought I made it clear that playoff loses are more costly, and of course hurt more for that reason alone. I said frustrating, and that's in the eye of the beholder, I guess.

That's fair.

I just don't think it's worth your blood pressure and frustration for a game when the half-strength Patriots lost on some bizarre plays.

Beat the Texans on Sunday night and no one will care.

 

[lexrageorge]

The loss was frustrating in that the Pats should have beaten the Eagles, and may well have had the Pats not made some terrible plays on both special teams and the offense.

The loss was concerning in that the OL got dominated, and that seemed to go beyond Brady being forced to hold the ball longer than he's used to. I can understand Amendola not being at 100% on Sunday, but LaFell's getting badly exposed was also concerning. Maybe it was just a bad game, but he seems to have regressed mightily from last season.

The loss was not that costly. They still control their own destiny when it comes to the bye. I'd prefer that the Pats not have to travel to Denver for the AFCCG, but the Pats still have a chance to win tiebreakers against Cincy if needed. The loss does make the game against Houston all that more important, however. Lose in Houston, and the Pats may find their margin in the AFC East divisional race a lot less secure, never mind the bye.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Problem with the drop-kick is the Eagles got a full second, maybe more, to see something funky was coming when the ball was tossed to Ebner. A second is a lot. On an onside kick, or a squib kick, Gost, or any good kicker, doesn't give any inkling of what is happening until his foot hits the ball. OK, on obvious onside kick situations, the kicking team is lined up different, but you can also execute it from a normal look.

Full second warning via Ebner can be viewed as a feature and not a bug. The objective is to kick-lob the ball to an area where Eagles are very sparse. For a normal kickoff, most of the front line Eagles would retreat backward a bit to set up the blocking scheme for the return. They see the toss to Ebner and they are more likely to freeze in place, giving the Pats more of a chance to get the ball into no man's land. Ebner's kick was maybe 5 feet too shallow and the Eagles player made a nice play to snatch the ball quickly.

On a related point, caller to WEEI this morning claimed he was at the game and observed Ebner on the sideline practicing kicking a ball about 5 minutes before the play happened in the game. He said if he noticed Ebner doing this it was very likely the Eagles did too. Could be total b.s. of course.

 

[j44thor]

Edit2: DC -- this game reminded me of the 2012 Week 2 home loss to the Kevin Kolb 5-11 Cardinals. I bet you don't even remember that game. Why should you? That was a crappy Cards team that went up 20-9 in the 2nd half thanks in part to a blocked punt that gave them the ball on our 2. At the end we forced their RB to fumble and gave us a chance to win... But Woodhead's TD was nullified by a phantom hold on Gronk, Ghost's 5th FG try just missed, and we lost. A strange game that ultimately had no bearing on the rest of the season.

While I was reading this post I was going through similar games in my head and the AZ game is exactly the same one I came up as a comparison.

 

[tims4wins]

The game I immediately thought of was the SF game from 2012 - where there were like 7 first half fumbles in the monsoon and the Niners recovered all of them and then the Pats made a huge comeback, only to lose because they gave up a huge kickoff return after they tied it late. Kind of fell under the "shit happens, move on" category.

 

[Van Everyman]

Am I the only Patriots fan who is kind of enjoying this?

My guess is that we will see numerous games like the last few -- lots of ugly football, poor execution and terrifying hits on Brady. The media is going to freak out on them as their sterling December record falls by the wayside.

But this team is nothing if not coachable -- you can tell Belichick loves them and their willingness to compete. And let's be honest: after giving up three, count 'em three, non-offensive touchdowns, they still almost won last week. Between them getting Gronk and Edelman back after the regular season and all the opportunities these next few weeks will give guys like White to get up to speed, I feel like they could lose out from here on out and they'd still be the most dangerous team in the playoffs.

Far be it from me to say that this team is going to win it all -- in fact, I think it's entirely possible they win only a single game the rest of the regular season. And the pressure will be enormous. But come playoff time, there's a piece of me that thinks that this team could be due for an epic run -- not in spite of these injuries but in some ways because of them.

 

[dynomite]

The game I immediately thought of was the SF game from 2012 - where there were like 7 first half fumbles in the monsoon and the Niners recovered all of them and then the Pats made a huge comeback, only to lose because they gave up a huge kickoff return after they tied it late. Kind of fell under the "shit happens, move on" category.

Yep, another good example. I discounted it a little since that 49ers team eventually went to the Super Bowl and the Eagles are terrible, like the '12 Cards. Still, that 49ers game was as impressive a comeback as I've ever seen in the NFL. Between that and the 2013 Broncos game and Sunday they've had some really remarkable comebacks in Gillette.

 

[Stitch01]

Am I the only Patriots fan who is kind of enjoying this?

My guess is that we will see numerous games like the last few -- lots of ugly football, poor execution and terrifying hits on Brady. The media is going to freak out on them as their sterling December record falls by the wayside.

But this team is nothing if not coachable -- you can tell Belichick loves them and their willingness to compete. And let's be honest: after giving up three, count 'em three, non-offensive touchdowns, they still almost won last week. Between them getting Gronk and Edelman back after the regular season and all the opportunities these next few weeks will give guys like White to get up to speed, I feel like they could lose out from here on out and they'd still be the most dangerous team in the playoffs.

Far be it from me to say that this team is going to win it all -- in fact, I think it's entirely possible they win only a single game the rest of the regular season. And the pressure will be enormous. But come playoff time, there's a piece of me that thinks that this team could be due for an epic run -- not in spite of these injuries but in some ways because of them.

I enjoyed it more when the good players were healthy and the offense was borderline unstoppable.

 

[IdiotKicker]

For anyone wanting to see how the punt block unfolded on Sunday, I put together a look at it here.

 

[McBride11]

Nice read IK.
In those situations how complex a call does Ebner make. Is it simply A v B, eg everyone slide left v right. Or is it a complex series of calls that could have confused Grissom.

Also, why would Ebner choose to cover the right Gap instead of the left gap since that is directly in front of him. Is that because of Allen's left foot and he wants to clear space in front?

 

[tims4wins]

Just guessing here, but the Pats have a 4 on 4 (counting Cordona) on the left, vs. a 3 on 4 on the right, so Ebner needs to slide right. If Cordona blocks right then Ebner needs to hang left.

 

[IdiotKicker]

So I can't speak for the Patriots exact calls, but most teams simply use a "Left" or "Right" call for the long-snapper with the rest of the reads based off that. Generally they keep protection simple since most people in protection aren't usually using those skills.

As to why Ebner went right, could be something as simple as he feels more comfortable sliding that way, or just that in a balanced situation where it is 4x4, he may be told to always go right just to take the decision out of his hands. Hard to say without being in the huddle.

 

[Al Zarilla]

Full second warning via Ebner can be viewed as a feature and not a bug.

Damn software guys! Some people actually fall for that line.

 

[McBride11]

Just guessing here, but the Pats have a 4 on 4 (counting Cordona) on the left, vs. a 3 on 4 on the right, so Ebner needs to slide right. If Cordona blocks right then Ebner needs to hang left.

But Cardona, as I understand, chooses L or R based upon Ebner's choice. If Eb goes R, Joe goes Left and vice versa.