The Final

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
34,413
The common theme of this collapse is very slow starts from Florida, leading to multigoal deficits they can't dig out of.

First 10 minutes might decide it on Monday.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
34,413
I do think Monday is a 100% coin flip. I did not feel like Edmonton should have lost all of games 1-3, so the 3-0 lead was a bit of a mirage. Overall the two feels feel even.
 

VORP Speed

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Apr 23, 2010
6,674
Ground Zero
Nothing better than a Stanley Cup Final Game 7. I was in the building the last time an Alberta team played a Florida team in a SCF Game 7. It was a 3 hour heart attack but also the best sporting event experience ever. Will enjoy not really caring who wins on Monday.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
25,465
In the span of five days, Miami has experienced a Celtics championship celebration party and their hockey team melting down after being up 3-0.

LOL
 

cshea

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Nov 15, 2006
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Maybe this question would be better off being posed after tonight if it happens. But fuck it, I'm jacked for the game tonight and need to kill some time.

If the Oilers pull it off, where does it rank on the list of greatest comebacks? It would seem like there's only 2 real contenders, of which we are quite familiar with:
  • 28-3
  • 2004 ALCS
3-0 comebacks have happened in hockey before, including in the 1943 Stanley Cup Final when the Maple Leafs did it to the Red Wings. But that was an 8-team league and the Red Wings were a below .500 team to boot.The Bruins, duh, and the San Jose Sharks are the most recent victims. But both of those were in the early rounds so I don't think either of them would be greater than if the Oilers pull it off. There hasn't been one in the NBA.

28-3: By most of the win probability models, the Falcons reached somewhere around 99.6% and 99.7% odds of winning that game. The knock against would be that it was one game as opposed to winning 4 straight. I never looked and will try to go back but, even up 3-0, I don't believe the Pathers win probablity for the series approached 99%. It's the old overcoming a huge defecit in one game vs. the slow climb of winning 4 straight.

2004 ALCS: Only time it's been done in baseball. We know the history. The only knock would be that it wasn't the World Series. However, the history of the two teams, the rivalry, the tension to me elevates it over this Oilers/Panthers one. Maybe I'm biased but that was peak Red Sox/Yankees, Peak Curse, etc.
 

wonderland

New Member
Jul 20, 2005
561
Another thing about the ALCS is they played five straight days so there was never a breather and the tension just escalated.

Here, there is too much time off that it takes the edge off the series for me. They should’ve played last night.

The finals for both the NBA and NHL need to shorten the days off in between. They need to play every other day.
 

bsl394

New Member
May 17, 2022
522
Maybe this question would be better off being posed after tonight if it happens. But fuck it, I'm jacked for the game tonight and need to kill some time.

If the Oilers pull it off, where does it rank on the list of greatest comebacks? It would seem like there's only 2 real contenders, of which we are quite familiar with:
  • 28-3
  • 2004 ALCS
3-0 comebacks have happened in hockey before, including in the 1943 Stanley Cup Final when the Maple Leafs did it to the Red Wings. But that was an 8-team league and the Red Wings were a below .500 team to boot.The Bruins, duh, and the San Jose Sharks are the most recent victims. But both of those were in the early rounds so I don't think either of them would be greater than if the Oilers pull it off. There hasn't been one in the NBA.

28-3: By most of the win probability models, the Falcons reached somewhere around 99.6% and 99.7% odds of winning that game. The knock against would be that it was one game as opposed to winning 4 straight. I never looked and will try to go back but, even up 3-0, I don't believe the Pathers win probablity for the series approached 99%. It's the old overcoming a huge defecit in one game vs. the slow climb of winning 4 straight.

2004 ALCS: Only time it's been done in baseball. We know the history. The only knock would be that it wasn't the World Series. However, the history of the two teams, the rivalry, the tension to me elevates it over this Oilers/Panthers one. Maybe I'm biased but that was peak Red Sox/Yankees, Peak Curse, etc.
I think losing a 3-0 lead in the Stanley Cup finals would be a bigger choke than both 28-3 and the 2004 ALCS. In both 28-3 and the 2004 ALCS I believe the better team won. I don't think there's a question that the Pats were better than Atlanta - maybe you could debate the 04 Yankees were better than the Sox but, either way, they were both very closely matched. Despite the 3-3 series score I think Florida is a much better hockey team than Edmonton. We've been talking about how deep they are all playoffs - their forecheck, the stifling D, Bob coming up big. Edmonton has had a generational player and a hot PP (at least until the finals) propelling them. The fact that Florida, in my opinion the far better team, may choke away a 3-0 lead in a Stanley Cup finals makes the choke bigger than both 28-3 and 2004 ALCS.

With all that said, I think the 2004 ALCS is a bigger choke if you factor in the history, rivalry, what happened the year before, the curse, etc. I may be biased though.
 

LogansDad

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Nov 15, 2006
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A point for this one, I think, is that the Oilers are not only attempting to come from 3-0, but also be the first Canadian team to lift the Cup in over 30 years.
 

bsl394

New Member
May 17, 2022
522
Another thing about the ALCS is they played five straight days so there was never a breather and the tension just escalated.

Here, there is too much time off that it takes the edge off the series for me. They should’ve played last night.

The finals for both the NBA and NHL need to shorten the days off in between. They need to play every other day.
Doesn't the NHL usually play every other day - am I wrong in thinking the extended breaks this series are only because of the travel distance between the two cities? Like I said, could be completely wrong, but I thought past finals had maybe one (or maybe even none) extended break between games 2 and 3 but were otherwise every other day.
 

bsl394

New Member
May 17, 2022
522
A point for this one, I think, is that the Oilers are not only attempting to come from 3-0, but also be the first Canadian team to lift the Cup in over 30 years.
Counterpoint - having a nontrad Florida team makes the matchup not as compelling as 04 ALCS. If this was Edmonton / Calgary (can't happen, I know)...
 

cshea

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Nov 15, 2006
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Doesn't the NHL usually play every other day - am I wrong in thinking the extended breaks this series are only because of the travel distance between the two cities? Like I said, could be completely wrong, but I thought past finals had maybe one (or maybe even none) extended break between games 2 and 3 but were otherwise every other day.
They've basically given them 2 days for travel. It makes sense given the distance between the two cities but I would note that in 2011 the Bruins and Canucks only got 1 day off between games 6 and 7. As a viewer, I would think a Sunday night broadcast would do much better than a Monday night but maybe I'm wrong.
 

jezza1918

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Jul 19, 2005
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All the pressure is now on Florida. Edmonton can play loose in Game 7.
I disagree with this sentiment a bit. I feel like when coming back from something like this the "playing loose" or "playing with house money" applies in games 4 &5...but past that I think some pressure mounts for the team coming back as well, because the chances of winning are now real.
Definitely think there is a good chunk more pressure on Florida, just not all of it.
 

cshea

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Nov 15, 2006
36,865
306, row 14
A point for this one, I think, is that the Oilers are not only attempting to come from 3-0, but also be the first Canadian team to lift the Cup in over 30 years.
I always kind of wonder about this. Do they really feel added pressure? Is all of Canada really behind them? I guess the majority?

I would think Flames and Canucks fans aren't too enthused about the Oilers being the one to end the draught. I'm not sure how some of the eastern Canada markets would feel though. Montreal is full of themselves. Toronto thinks they are the center of the hockey universe so there may be some jealousy.
 

NYCSox

chris hansen of goats
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May 19, 2004
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Maybe this question would be better off being posed after tonight if it happens. But fuck it, I'm jacked for the game tonight and need to kill some time.

If the Oilers pull it off, where does it rank on the list of greatest comebacks? It would seem like there's only 2 real contenders, of which we are quite familiar with:
  • 28-3
  • 2004 ALCS
3-0 comebacks have happened in hockey before, including in the 1943 Stanley Cup Final when the Maple Leafs did it to the Red Wings. But that was an 8-team league and the Red Wings were a below .500 team to boot.The Bruins, duh, and the San Jose Sharks are the most recent victims. But both of those were in the early rounds so I don't think either of them would be greater than if the Oilers pull it off. There hasn't been one in the NBA.

28-3: By most of the win probability models, the Falcons reached somewhere around 99.6% and 99.7% odds of winning that game. The knock against would be that it was one game as opposed to winning 4 straight. I never looked and will try to go back but, even up 3-0, I don't believe the Pathers win probablity for the series approached 99%. It's the old overcoming a huge defecit in one game vs. the slow climb of winning 4 straight.

2004 ALCS: Only time it's been done in baseball. We know the history. The only knock would be that it wasn't the World Series. However, the history of the two teams, the rivalry, the tension to me elevates it over this Oilers/Panthers one. Maybe I'm biased but that was peak Red Sox/Yankees, Peak Curse, etc.
That 2010 Bruins team was beat up - Krejci, Sturm and Seidenberg were out and a bunch of others were walking wounded.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,804
Maybe this question would be better off being posed after tonight if it happens. But fuck it, I'm jacked for the game tonight and need to kill some time.

If the Oilers pull it off, where does it rank on the list of greatest comebacks? It would seem like there's only 2 real contenders, of which we are quite familiar with:
  • 28-3
  • 2004 ALCS
3-0 comebacks have happened in hockey before, including in the 1943 Stanley Cup Final when the Maple Leafs did it to the Red Wings. But that was an 8-team league and the Red Wings were a below .500 team to boot.The Bruins, duh, and the San Jose Sharks are the most recent victims. But both of those were in the early rounds so I don't think either of them would be greater than if the Oilers pull it off. There hasn't been one in the NBA.

28-3: By most of the win probability models, the Falcons reached somewhere around 99.6% and 99.7% odds of winning that game. The knock against would be that it was one game as opposed to winning 4 straight. I never looked and will try to go back but, even up 3-0, I don't believe the Pathers win probablity for the series approached 99%. It's the old overcoming a huge defecit in one game vs. the slow climb of winning 4 straight.

2004 ALCS: Only time it's been done in baseball. We know the history. The only knock would be that it wasn't the World Series. However, the history of the two teams, the rivalry, the tension to me elevates it over this Oilers/Panthers one. Maybe I'm biased but that was peak Red Sox/Yankees, Peak Curse, etc.
Just to add on to the 2004 ALCS: the Sox were not only down 3-0 in games, but were down to their final 3 outs while down a run and facing literally the best relief pitcher of all time while still in his prime. I know the expectancy model had the Sox as 23% to win the game at that point, but that model did not include Rivera's effectiveness as a lockdown reliever.
 

cshea

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Nov 15, 2006
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306, row 14
Just to add on to the 2004 ALCS: the Sox were not only down 3-0 in games, but were down to their final 3 outs while down a run and facing literally the best relief pitcher of all time while still in his prime. I know the expectancy model had the Sox as 23% to win the game at that point, but that model did not include Rivera's effectiveness as a lockdown reliever.
Yep. 2 extra inning games where the Sox were trailing in the late innings and came back to tie then hang on for dear life in extra innings. The degree of difficulty seems a bit higher. The Oilers have largely dominated games 4-6 and have never trailed. 8-1, 3-0 (before it turned hairy) and 5-1. They haven't quite been to the brink like the 04 Red Sox were.