Shohei Ohtani's future....
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I would think the bigger issue is that a player that you have spent a good chunk of your budget on isn't available to help your team.
Like insurance can pay for their contract if you give them enough $ & take on enough negative actuarial value on your insurance payment.
But it's not like insurance is making your Major League team whole again.
The insurance company doesn't provide a similarly valued rental pitcher until your Chris Sale is fixed.
Ohtani's already had TJS once and his hitting doesn't seem to have suffered. Bryce Harper is doing okay following his TJS last winter. Christian Vazquez has played most of his MLB career post-TJS. That's just a few examples. I think for the most part, players come back from it without restrictions. I think the re-injury factor is probably less for position players than pitchers but probably not insignificant.
Harper, Seager, and Perez are probably the biggest names in recent years. Seager went back to SS. Perez hit 48 HR in his first full season afterward. Harper's HR numbers are down this year but he's still good (though now mostly a DH with an occassional game at 1B). I don't think TJS is as worrisome for position players as pitchers and even pitchers tend to come back well from it these days. But Ohtani is doing double duty out there.
I still think someone is going to pay Ohtani but it's going to hurt them terribly when he gets hurt again and they lose their middle of the order slugger, ace, and have ~40M+ in salary going to him for years and years.
Say, 10/400M plus a million dollars per start? I know MLB contracts can't be structured like that, and for good reason, but that's the kind of value teams might assign to him?
You have to wonder if letting continue this 2-way model will be a differentiating factor in his decision. If a team is willing to take on that risk, and probably pay him a little more to reflect the value, is he more likely to sign? Or, is this mostly just another geography play for him. Nobody really knows and he might not even know at this point. First data point will be whether or not he shuts it down in 2023 or tries to continue. Sure he's getting all sorts of doctor opinions today. Not sure if he'll join the team in NY or not.
Still 400M+ I’m sure, I wouldn’t be too worried about the hitting. Though the feasibility of a dominant starter long term in question.
The timing actually works out well for the Angels, his price tag just went down 30% overnight and the demand for the 2 way unicorn takes a big hit. Maybe the “tear” isn’t even that bad, more low grade sprain/partial tear with inflammation. Who knows.
Entire story a bit odd as it was labeled arm fatigue not elbow or forearm pain. A conspiracy theorist might even think this new abrupt diagnosis when the Angels are clearly out of the race was timed quite well for Arte Moreno.
The timing actually works out well for the Angels, his price tag just went down 30% overnight and the demand for the 2 way unicorn takes a big hit. Maybe the “tear” isn’t even that bad, more low grade sprain/partial tear with inflammation. Who knows.
Entire story a bit odd as it was labeled arm fatigue not elbow or forearm pain. A conspiracy theorist might even think this new abrupt diagnosis when the Angels are clearly out of the race was timed quite well for Arte Moreno.
Would he still have insane value and be “safer” as a closer or twice a week high-leverage bullpen ace?
He wants to win. The Angels aren't close to winning. Even with a healthy Mike Trout.
Does this injury hurt or is it more discomfort that is worrying?
like ACL I’ve heard is wildly painful. Is this similar?
like ACL I’ve heard is wildly painful. Is this similar?
Player’s failing physicals that end up nixing trades and FA signings occur often enough (not sure how to phrase the frequency). Has a trade ever been revoked at or near the deadline due to the medicals on a contract rental (excluding any trade that included an extension window)?
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I wonder if he can really be an effective reliever (closer or not) while being an everyday DH as well. I think the routine of being a starter was an important part of how he was able to be successful as a two-way player. If he's relieving, he needs to be prepared to pitch more or less every day. That might be a bit harder than only having to concentrate on being ready to pitch once a week.
Let's assume he's the closer. What happens if he's due up third in the bottom of the eighth and his team has a one-run lead? Do they pinch hit for him so he can warm up? Does he warm up until he's needed on deck? What happens if he's not fully warmed/ready and then he gets on base and stays there until the inning ends? Would MLB invent another rule just for him that allows extra warmups?
What about this as an offer to Ohtani this offseason?
2/$50m, with a club option for 10/$400, a player option for 8/$250, or a $50m buyout. Then you tell him to get surgery on the UCL. So we're paying him handsomely ($100m) to rehab, presumably returning in some role at some , and then we see if he's still a two-way player or just a high-end corner outfielder/middle-of-the-order bat.
So it's either 12/$450 or 10/$300, all told. It's like 85% of Judge's contract if he's just a hitter, or that plus Rodón's deal if he can still pitch. Is that viable?
2/$50m, with a club option for 10/$400, a player option for 8/$250, or a $50m buyout. Then you tell him to get surgery on the UCL. So we're paying him handsomely ($100m) to rehab, presumably returning in some role at some , and then we see if he's still a two-way player or just a high-end corner outfielder/middle-of-the-order bat.
So it's either 12/$450 or 10/$300, all told. It's like 85% of Judge's contract if he's just a hitter, or that plus Rodón's deal if he can still pitch. Is that viable?
Current plan is to keep hitting for the time being. Seeking 2nd opinions so could probably be shut down at any time now.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38252296/source-shohei-ohtani-plans-keep-hitting-ucl-tear
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38252296/source-shohei-ohtani-plans-keep-hitting-ucl-tear
If he's just a hitter but still a good one he opts out and you just paid $100m for 1 hopefully healthy year
He'll likely have had the surgery before free agency begins, probably as soon as the season ends if not sooner (depending on the second opinions).
It's an interesting structure for a contract. Basically saying we'll pay you for two years to be a DH and work your way back to the mound. If he comes back and can pitch effectively, he'll get a monster deal. If he ends up being a DH only, he still gets paid better than any other DH in the history of the league.
If I'm the Angels, I make that offer tomorrow. See if the injury makes him more anxious to secure his future immediately. My guess is that by the time that free agency begins and other teams can get involved, he'll have a clearer picture of his prognosis and will be insisting on a long term deal with no gimmicks.
If he's just a hitter, he's probably not beating 8/$250 after his age-30 season.
But maybe the buyout is a bad idea.
He doesn't have to beat 8-250, he has to beat 8-200. That's only 25m a year for one of the better hitters in the league.
Ohtani is more than just “one of the better hitters in the league”. He’s right there at the top with a few others.
Given the contracts from last season I’d be shocked if he didn’t get 300-400M even if he could never pitch again.
As a non pitcher, he also doesn’t have to be strictly a DH. He’s athletic and could play the field for a good chunk of a long term contract.
Obviously right now he is, but that hypothetical is about what he's likely to be for the next 8 seasons starting in 2 years after a significant injury and rehab.
Not saying it's not possible, but he hasn't actually played almost any OF since 2013 and 2014 in Japan. He has played a total of 8.1 innings there for the Angels.
I would have never guessed that he had played that few innings in the field for the Angels.
Aaron Judge was a year older than Ohtani when reaching free agency and got 9/$360M. Obviously different players and risk profiles, but wondering if that’s the floor.
Not that I expect Ohtani to re-sign with the Angels, but with the injuries piling up, Trout might need to be the Angels DH in the not too distant future.
Closer might work, but any other bullpen position is tough unless they change the rules. I believe that if he came into the game as a reliever, while also the DH, the Angels would lose the DH once they replace him as pitcher and he'd have to play in the field if he wanted to continue hitting. I'm not 100 percent sure of this, but my understanding of the Shohei Ohtani rule is that a pitcher must start the game as both the P and DH in order not to lose the DH. I guess they changed the rule once for him, and so they could again, but the way the rules work right now, pitching him risks losing him as a hitter if the game goes on for any significant length of time after you remove him from the game.
Not from a performance standpoint but more "he's got 7 more years left on the deal and might not make it if he continues to get hurt".
I tore my UCL in 1992. Aside from the initial pain of the injury it only hurt when trying to throw. There was no pain whilst swinging. But that’s just my experience.
Do DH’s count a position players as it applies to the new rule limiting the situations that position players can pitch?
Good question. Before the game, everyone needs to be designated on the lineup card as a position player, a pitcher, or a Shohei Ohtani (aka "Two-way player).
So Ohtani, still in there at DH, hit a 2B that was apparently his 8th hardest hit ball of the season. Is this sustainable? Swinging a bat can’t be good for him, right?
It's likely one of those situations where he can't do any more damage. Whether the ligament is torn 50% or 100%, it's getting surgically replaced after the season so as long as he's not in pain he can keep playing. He wouldn't be the first to keep hitting through a UCL tear. It isn't even his first time doing it.
It probably helps that he hits lefty. The damaged arm is the front one and it's moving backwards from a throwing motion.
Apparently, the outcome after revision TJ surgery in not as slam dunk at some people on the board make it out to be. There's a relatively high risk of never being able to pitch on a ML level again. So any team paying him big time guarantees before the surgery and the rehab is just betting even or odd on a roulette wheel.
https://theathletic.com/4805018/2023/08/25/shohei-ohtani-tommy-john-two-times/
https://theathletic.com/4805018/2023/08/25/shohei-ohtani-tommy-john-two-times/
Definitely not assured. Before the injury, he was probably going to be paid 60/40 or 70/30 leaning more towards hitter anyway.
Now it'll probably be more like 80/20 or 90/10. Any significant pitching would be a bonus but if he gets 400-500M it'll be based almost entirely on his bat. Still think there is a possibility of him being a non-DH and non-pitcher for a good chunk of the contract.
As far as hitting with a torn or partially torn UCL, likely not a big deal. Entirely different torque, doubtful he would cause more damage. And it if is a surgical UCL already, of course then it doesn't matter anyway.
Petty stuff coming out with that.
Meanwhile he can definitely still hit - double & triple tonight.
Meanwhile he can definitely still hit - double & triple tonight.
I think that message was for other FAs so that people don’t think they’re being negligent.
https://global.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38330117/agent-shohei-ohtani-plans-continue-two-way-player
Can he potentially pitch next year then?
This reads entirely like an agent trying to inflate/salvage his client's free agent market. It's in his (the agent's) best interest for Ohtani to be able to pitch in 2024, or at least appear to have the chance to do so. Ohtani sought second opinions after the initial diagnosis for exactly this purpose. I'm no doctor, but I wouldn't sign Ohtani this winter with any expectation that he will pitch in 2024. 2025 and beyond, sure, but not in 2024.