Second Guesser's Club - How Scioscian will he be this series?

absintheofmalaise

absintheofmalaise

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[tablegrid= Probable Starters ]   W L G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP Game 1: 10:05 Allen Webster RHP 1 1 2 2 8 5.63 12.38 0 0.227 62.50% 45.50% 0.00% 6.75 6.01 7.27   Jered Weaver RHP 12 6 24 24 150.1 7 2.75 1.08 0.26 76.50% 33.60% 8.30% 3.59 4.15 4.41                                   Game 2: 9:05 Clay Buchholz RHP 5 7 18 18 101.2 6.64 3.36 1.15 0.34 62.60% 44.60% 10.90% 6.2 4.62 4.43   Garrett Richards RHP 12 4 23 23 153.1 8.92 2.82 0.29 0.258 76.40% 50.50% 4.30% 2.58 2.65 3.19                                   Game 3: 3:35 Rubby de la Rosa RHP 3 4 10 10 60.1 5.97 2.83 1.04 0.288 79.80% 46.50% 12.30% 3.43 4.31 3.99   Hector Santiago LHP 3 7 20 15 84.1 7.79 3.52 0.96 0.272 67.80% 31.00% 7.30% 3.84 4.07 4.52 [/tablegrid]
 
mabrowndog

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We should have an over/under contest on how many HRs Pujols and Trout will crank in this series, the number of outs Webster will record before surrendering his first MLB round-tripper of the season, and the total walks issued by Sox starters.
 
I'll set them at 3.5, 13.5, and 8.5 respectively.
 
FWIW, Trout's gone deep just once in his last 15 games, while Pujols has only left the park once in his last 24. I'm sure they're salivating after picking up the scent of the bloody bucketfuls of chum arriving tonight.
 
Buzzkill Pauley

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mabrowndog said:
We should have an over/under contest on how many HRs Pujols and Trout will crank in this series, the number of outs Webster will record before surrendering his first MLB round-tripper of the season, and the total walks issued by Sox starters.
 
I'll set them at 3.5, 13.5, and 8.5 respectively.
 
FWIW, Trout's gone deep just once in his last 15 games, while Pujols has only left the park once in his last 24. I'm sure they're salivating after picking up the scent of the bloody bucketfuls of chum arriving tonight.
Click to expand...
 
  • Over: G2 alone could break that number, if Breslow follows Buchholz.
  • Under: Webster's likely going in with a game plan to fill up the zone.
  • Over: 3 BB per game seems a lock, with those particular starters.
 
Pessimistic, I know.  But good lord, the first two starters have shown so little recently.
 
The Gray Eagle

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Good lord, Webster's xFIP is 7.27?? He's been worse than I thought, and I thought he's been horrible. 
 
For his career, he has an 8.32 ERA in 38.1 IP, with 7 HRs allowed. More walks (29) allowed than strikeouts (28).
 
His trade value has to be plummeting every time he looks awful on the mound. 
 
pokey_reese

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We now have the basic rotation of recent Twins teams, but without the control.  Look at the K/9 we run out there:
 
Buchholz: 6.64
RDLR: 5.97
Kelly: 5.79
Workman: 6.89
Webster: 5.63
 
Ouch.  That might be a good reason to keep JBJ around...
 
M

MakMan44

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Only half paying attention but why wasn't someone else in to face Trout with Buch over 100 pitches?
 
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MakMan44

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Yeah, reading through the gamethread, it sounded like Clay had rolled through the first 2 batters too. Makes sense with that context. 
 
Traut

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Love to hear Farrell's reasoning for keeping Hembree in that long. Serving up a gopher ball seems preferable to abusing a young arm.
 
Cuzittt

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Trautwein's Degree said:
Love to hear Farrell's reasoning for keeping Hembree in that long. Serving up a gopher ball seems preferable to abusing a young arm.
Click to expand...
"I didn't have any other pitchers."

I mean, that's the answer. The fact that he went to another starter in the 19th as opposed to Hembree for a 5th inning shows some knowledge of the situation.
 
TheoShmeo

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My second guess re Clay was him being on the mound to start the 8th notwithstanding the good results on the first two batters.  True, neither Breslow or Mujica inspire a lot of confidence, but I would have preferred that Farrell removed Buck with a chance to get the win and tried to eke out an inning before Koji Time with a fresh arm.  
 
And I echo Traut's question.  I went to bed after the first Hembree inning so don't have much of a feel for this, but 62 pitches seems like a lot given Hembree's prior usage this season.
 
Unrelated: That Nava is starting and Bradley isn't getting more playing time to try to work through his hitting woes remains confounding to me.  Every at bat that Nava gets over Bradley is, in my view, a missed opportunity.  Despite the extreme nature of that comment, I don't actualy think that Nava should never play.  It just shouldn't be nearly this much.  Are they managing for the future or this year?  And I still don't get Betts not getting at bats in Boston.
 
PS: Cuzitt, that answer only goes so far.  I mean it's true as a practical matter but it's also true that Hembree was a limited option for health related reasons.  I asume JF's answer was they felt that 62 pitches wasn't going to hurt him...I'd just like to hear the thought process around that, not that I have a strong leaning that it's wrong. 
 
Traut

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Cuzittt said:
"I didn't have any other pitchers."

I mean, that's the answer. The fact that he went to another starter in the 19th as opposed to Hembree for a 5th inning shows some knowledge of the situation.
Click to expand...
I get that he had no one else...which is why Trout or Pujols should have seen a bp fastball in the 15th.
 
mabrowndog

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For those wondering how the Sox might get any fresh arm(s) to Anaheim in time for today's game (3:35 pm EDT start time), Pawtucket is playing in Charlotte this weekend so any selected player(s) would have easy access to non-stop flights. Among PawSox pitchers already on the 40-man roster:
 
Anthony Ranaudo - Started Friday night (99 pitches)
Drake Britton - Relieved Friday night (21 pitches)
Steven Wright - Started Thursday night (95 pitches), slated to start Tuesday @ Gwinnett
Alex Wilson - Relieved Thursday night (20 pitches)
Edwin Escobar - Started Tuesday night (92 pitches), slated to start Monday @ Gwinnett
 
The Red Sox have two vacancies on their 40-man in the event they decide to add another arm, but it would really need to be a pitcher they'd be comfortable losing on waivers between now and November 20, the deadline for setting rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft. That's because any roster slot taken up now will need to be vacated by then in order to protect draft-eligible players (i.e. some of their best prospects). That makes it highly unlikely they'd purchase the contract of Henry Owens, since he doesn't require Rule 5 protection until next season. Other PawSox arms:
 
Chris Hernandez (LH) - Relieved Saturday night (19 pitches)
Brayan Villareal (RH) - Relieved Saturday night (17 pitches)
Ryan Verdugo (LH) - Relieved Saturday night (28 pitches)
John Ely (RH) - Relieved Friday night (26 pitches)
Miguel Celestino (RH) - Relieved Friday night (12 pitches)
 
If they can't get any sufficiently-rested, current-40-man arms out there, and they don't want to risk losing any other system arms, there's the remote possibility of dealing for a fungible minor league arm from a club with its AAA team out west, allowing the player to get to Anaheim on time. They could also claim someone like Jerome Williams (DFAd by the Rangers on Friday) and hustle his ass from Texas to LAX this morning. In either case, they could dump the player at any time with no regrets or guilty conscience.
 
As for creating 25-man space, optioning Hembree is the obvious move to add one arm. Bringing a 2nd pitcher in gets a bit dicier. Corey Brown is out of options, so he'd need to be DFAd. Kelly Johnson, who we all know is superfluous, could also be DFAd.
 
Getting Escobar out there ASAP seems the most logical move (Pawtucket can fill his start by committee, with Hernandez & Ely eating most of the innings). I suspect he's already aboard US Airways Flight 1993.
 
mabrowndog

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Forgot about Brown. Three position players on the roster didn't make it into a 19 inning game. That's kind of amazing. Also amazing that none of the three has ever played a game with the team.
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And they had four such players yesterday -- 16% of their active roster -- before Hembree made his debut.
 
joe dokes

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Unrelated: That Nava is starting and Bradley isn't getting more playing time to try to work through his hitting woes remains confounding to me.  Every at bat that Nava gets over Bradley is, in my view, a missed opportunity.
 
Click to expand...
 
I think i have seen Farrell quoted 4 times in the last 3 days saying that they are working on stuff with JBJ's hitting and that's why he's not starting.  My guess is that if the game hadn't been close, he wouldn't have gotten in at all.
 
Or Farrell is just lying to cover up his stupidity and the gross incompetence of the entire coaching staff.
 
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MakMan44

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Nice call browndog, just saw on Rotoworld that they recalled Escobar. 
 
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