Sandovals Production- I will be happy with....

[bakahump]

Please list  what you feel is a fair expectation of Sandovals Production this year.
 
Use his weight as a mitigating factor. IOW anything less then your prediction would prompt you to  have "Weight Specific criticism".
 
For instance if you say "If Pablo plays in 130 games with an OPS of .840"  Attaining  Less then those projections would open him up to criticism.
 
I would then like to take the all the predictions develop a consensus (+/- 10 %) and see if Panda Fails, meets or exceeds those predictions.
 
Basically a Panda Specific Prediction thread.
 
Lets use
Games:
OPS:
 
Any other Stats we should use?

 

[ookami7m]

Over the last 6 full seasons Panda has averaged 138 games and an OPS of .811

Anything over those numbers, moving to the AL for the first time, is success in my book.

 

[Reverend]

Are you asking people to make a prediction of what they think he will produce, or what he should produce such that anything below would be deserving of criticism?

Or, perhaps, both?

 

[bakahump]

"Anything Below would be deserving of Criticism."   but feel free to provide both.
 
I am curious to what standard we will hold him.
 
I know it wont happen....but would like to have something (in the form of this thread) which could be used to defend him against a moving Target,
 
I am also interested to see if he has an OPS of .809 in 135 games How many people Cry "Weight issues" after having said "well if has career norms then His weight is ok with me".

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I would be content with 140 games, a wRC+ >/= 110, and solid-average defense. In WAR terms, something in the 3-3.5 range.
 
And I suspect that's pretty much exactly what we'll get.

 

[Puffy]

 
Lets use
Games:
OPS:
 
Any other Stats we should use?

 
For me, the defense will be essential.
 
If he can remain average or better at 3B this year, I think a modest offensive output would be acceptable. I'd be interested if he sees any boost in SLG in moving to Fenway. Most projections have him around .450 SLG in spite of the fact that the last two seasons were lower (.417, .415). I'd be happy with >135 games and >.770 OPS provided his defense is as solid as it has been historically. 
 
This has the potential to be one of the most polarizing players since JD Drew, since there's a decent chance that a .330 OBP and a .440 SLG will not be enough for many people, regardless of what he shows defensively at the hot corner. I think many fans look at him and expect a power hitter.

 

[Niastri]

I am thinking he should have a bump in OPS from moving to Boston from San Francisco.
 
If he has a .811 OPS, that would be alright, I guess, but I would very much hope for better with the better ballparks and lineup he will be playing in.  Combine that with the fact that your 28 year old season should be the height of your prime....
 
I am hoping for 135 games and .830 OPS.
 
Anything under .790, and I will be very disappointed, but probably won't blame his weight.  Watching the games will help form that opinion for me, though.

 

[bakahump]

Defense will be tough, because a "Slimmer man would have gotten that...."

 

[nighthob]

I would be content with 140 games, a wRC+ >/= 110, and solid-average defense. In WAR terms, something in the 3-3.5 range.
 
And I suspect that's pretty much exactly what we'll get.

This. And after watching the Red Sox play as a National League team in the AL last year, it will be a relief to see Boston not have a virtual pitcher in the lineup this year.

 

[C4CRVT]

Is there a proven correlation between the frequency of injuries or overall performance and BMI/ body fat percentage? Seems like most of the injuries the Sox have dealt with have zilch to do with players being too heavy.
 
I guess there has to be a point where a player is just plain too heavy but how would we know how to judge that? Seems like there's a greater chance that any under performance could very well be attributable to something other than weight (like not being mentally prepared or an injury that has squat to do with weight).

 

[bellowthecat]

As long as he stays relatively healthy (130+ games) and gives you a league average bat with league average defense he won't get any criticism from me.  I think the Red Sox are paying him for production somewhat better than that, but I can't say I really expect him to be put up even a 4 WAR season.  I'm happy to be proved wrong, but after the last couple years of 3B being a black hole I'll gladly take any positive I can.
 
Edit: for OPS, let's say 730 (.320/.410).

 

[Mike F]

Defense will be tough, because a "Slimmer man would have gotten that...."

Well WMB is a slimmer man.
I expect an increase in doubles both LH & RH hence a slight increase in OPS.
if he finishes under 800 I'll be disappointed but not blaming it on fat.

 

[jasail]

If he provides solid defense at 3b and puts up a slash line of above .270/.340/.750 I will be happy. Those are not great numbers, but they are solid and in line with recent performance, so that's about where my expectations are. If he sees a bump up leaving the NLW, I'd be very happy. 

 

[grimshaw]

I'd like to see a wRC+ from 115-120 with above average defense.  An average of 3 WAR seems reasonable.  By year 4 or 5, I'd like him to be Napoli-lite at 1B.

 

[benhogan]

Wow, maybe I'm too pessimistic.  
 
My initial thought was about .725 OPS, average range + solid glove/arm for defense and 130 games.
 
If we get above an .800 OPS, count me as ecstatic.  Maybe Fenway will help him that much.

 

[Reverend]

I'd like to see a wRC+ from 115-120 with above average defense.  An average of 3 WAR seems reasonable.  By year 4 or 5, I'd like him to be Napoli-lite at 1B.

 
I, too, would like Panda to be a top five AL third baseman.

 

[dbn]

Players are (obviously) going to have up years and down years. Maybe he feels so much more comfortable in the Red Sox clubhouse that he plays inspired and has a career year. Maybe he takes a while to adjust to a new home park, team, and league, causing him to have a down year. More likely it'll be somewhere in between - maybe a bit better than his average year, maybe a bit worse.
 
Year, GP, OPS, BoWAR:
 
2008, 41, 0.847, 0.7
2009, 153, 0.943, 5.5
2010, 152, 0.732, 1.5
2011, 117, 0.909, 6.1
2012, 108, 0.789, 2.1
2013, 141, 0.758, 2.7
2014, 157, 0.739, 3.3
 
I'll be very pleased with ~150+ games, 0.825 OPS. That'd be his best season since 2011.
I expect something in the neighborhood of 140 games, 0.760 OPS.
I'll be disappointed with anything less than something like 130 games, 0.730 OPS.
 
I expect him to play above average defense. 
 
His weight may balloon and he still have a good season. He might have a bad season that has nothing to do with his weight. 

 

[mauf]

My benchmark for Panda: 139 games (at least 120 at 3B), 782 OPS.
 
Excluding the fan survey, Fangraphs has three projections: Depth Charts (142 G, 795 OPS), Steamer (130 G, 809 OPS), and ZiPS (144 G, 782 OPS).
 
Panda hit better at home than on the road, so you wouldn't expect him to get the same lift moving to Fenway as your typical batter leaving that pitcher's paradise. I'm guessing that one or more of these projection systems didn't adequately account for that; therefore, I went with the lowest of the three projections. I have no reason to think any one of those systems is better than the others at projecting games played, so I simply averaged the three projections (138.67, rounded up).
 
A lot of Panda's value is tied up in his ability to play league-average (or at least passable) defense at 3B. There's too much noise in UZR to put much stock in one year of data, but if Farrell feels compelled to move him to 1B or DH to hide his glove, that's a red flag. Therefore, I added a requirement that he play at least 120 games at 3B.
 
Like most guys who sign long-term contracts, Panda is likely to earn his money the first year. The real issue is the longer term; this exercise doesn't speak to that.

 

[snowmanny]

Why would I criticize him?  This was an odd signing and he looks headed in the wrong direction, as dbn says. I expect him to suck beyond belief vs. LHH.  Anything over .650 OPS is a  victory.  An OPS under .800 vs RHP is a disappointment since he was basically hired to hit RHP.  I guess I would criticize him if they ended up platooning him and he whined about it.

 

[pokey_reese]

Given that he has played 141 and 157 games over the last two years, I would like him to get to at least 140-145 (I would guess projections are a bit lower because they use three years, and he only played in 108 three seasons ago).
 
I'll say 145 games and .780 OPS seems just about right. He will live or die (value-wise) based on his defense, since he is probably going to be about league average at the plate and a negative on the base paths.

 

[Saints Rest]

Unless he starts to look and move like Fat Albert out there, I'm not sure I will attribute any downturn in his production to anything different than one of the myriad reasons we might have used for all the other free agents who have done poorly in Boston (Lugo, Renteria, Crawford, Dante Bichette, etc).  Sometimes players don't do well -- that can apply to fat players, skinny players, black players, white players, etc, etc.

 

[MalzoneExpress]

I want.....
 
1. His BA to be greater than his weight
2. His OBP to be greater than his weight plus his good cholesterol
3. Him to gobble up everything at 3rd base
 
Actually, I just want Pablo to be Pablo. That will be good enough for me.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I want.....
 
1. His BA to be greater than his weight
2. His OBP to be greater than his weight plus his good cholesterol
3. Him to gobble up everything at 3rd base
 
Actually, I just want Pablo to be Pablo. That will be good enough for me.

Stats like your avatar at the same age season would probably satisfy me.
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/malzofr01.shtml

 

[theapportioner]

Regardless of what he actually produces while batting or on the field, people (not necessarily SoSH, but general fans and the media) are going to give him a shorter leash than others because of his weight. 

 

[Plympton91]

I would guess the Red Sox were paying for something similar to his PECOTA projection, so that's what you should probably judge him on. Given the ease with which he can out produce last years debacle, they'll almost certainly get an upgrade. I'm hoping they have some proprietary thing that suggests 340 / 480 is a possibility moving to AL East parks.

 

[Sampo Gida]

I would guess the Red Sox were paying for something similar to his PECOTA projection, so that's what you should probably judge him on. Given the ease with which he can out produce last years debacle, they'll almost certainly get an upgrade. I'm hoping they have some proprietary thing that suggests 340 / 480 is a possibility moving to AL East parks.

 
Also, he is much better against RHP'ers than LHP'ers, and there are few quality LH SP'ers in the AL East

 

[pdub]

I expect something around .330OBP/.420SLG with good defense. 

 

[reggiecleveland]

If he rates as average 3b and hits OPS+ 110 that would be a very good player.

 

[Montana Fan]

If he rates as average 3b and hits OPS+ 110 that would be a very good player.

 
It'd be "Mike Schmidt" compared to last year.

 

[djhb20]

The cut off for not disappointed -

130 games and 730 OPS

Of course, there's 2 dimensions, so 100 games and 850 OPS is probably not be too disappointed by.

 

[Devizier]

I'd be happy with good health and Sandoval's ZIPS projection: 328 OBP 454 SLG.
 
Of course, if he happens to be Beltre redux, I'll be overjoyed.

 

[Frisbetarian]

Only 3 3rd basemen had an OPS greater than .800 last season, with the MLB average at .716, so some expectations have to be tempered. 
 
I would be ecstatic with 600+ Plate appearances and a wOBA in the mid to high .320's, which would put him ~10 runs better than an average MLB 3rd baseman. I suspect he will be closer to league average with the bat, however. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Only 3 3rd basemen had an OPS greater than .800 last season, with the MLB average at .716, so some expectations have to be tempered. 
 
I would be ecstatic with 600+ Plate appearances and a wOBA in the mid to high .320's, which would put him ~10 runs better than an average MLB 3rd baseman. I suspect he will be closer to league average with the bat, however. 

 
There are reasons to be both pessimistic and optimistic about Sandoval this year. On the pessimistic side, if he ages normally for a guy of his build, his O-Contact% is about to fall off the cliff. Considering the fact that he not only chases a lot, but is good at hitting bad pitches, that's scary. He'll need to adjust as he loses his ability to do something with pitches he probably shouldn't be swinging at in the first place or he's going to start striking out and rolling over on the ball a lot more.
 
On the other hand, there are reasons to believe that Sandoval's hard hit balls will see some increase in their BABIP in Fenway. I'm honestly not sure what to expect, but you can make a case for both below and above league average for a third baseman, though if his ability to drive bad pitches declines like it does for most overweight guys his age, he will probably have trouble adjusting enough to avoid an overall decline in his offense, so hopefully 2015 sees him at comfortably above league average so he has some room to fall before his bat has trouble playing at 1st o DH.

 

[ALiveH]

Getting used to a new team & league & media market, I like the signing, but in year 1 would be pretty happy if he approached his recent / career averages.  Something in the 110-125 OPS+ range with solid-good defense at 3B in 135+ games played.  Plus I hope the local scribes are kind to him & he's a fan favorite, b/c he seems like the type sensitive to that.
 
The weight thing is definitely a can't-win situation for him, perception-wise.  When he's struggling, he'll look real bad & it's easy to point to.  When he's doing well, it will barely be brought up at all, and even when it is, it will be "imagine how good he'd be if he lost 20 pounds."

 

[DLew On Roids]

My sophisticated projection system tells me that I will be muttering about his weight after any PA in which his OPS is below 1.000.  
 
In fairness, I expect to be in good company.  I'll be with SJH, at least.