10 days out and a rumor already is out there about Brandon Workman on the trade block.
View: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1296862094617456641
View: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1296862094617456641
Good. I like him but the Sox need to sell as many marketable pieces as they can (excluding guys like Devers, etc.).10 days out and a rumor already is out there about Brandon Workman on the trade block.
View: https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1296862094617456641
He, JBJ, and Pillar are going to be free agents, so I expect to hear trade rumors about all of them. Moreland has a club option, but I could see him getting shopped too.Good. I like him but the Sox need to sell as many marketable pieces as they can (excluding guys like Devers, etc.).
I get what you are saying here regarding fans. On the topic of trades, I would guess that the shortened/more volatile season will mean a smaller return for the rentals they are shopping. When luck is playing a bigger role relative to talent, the marginal value of adding a guy like Workman or JBJ is reduced.The owners of this team really lucked out with no fans in the stands/ a drastically shorten schedule this year, can you imagine what the attendance would be if this was a 162 game season?
There will also be more teams in the playoffs, so more buyers and less sellers than normal. Who knows how that will effect things.I get what you are saying here regarding fans. On the topic of trades, I would guess that the shortened/more volatile season will mean a smaller return for the rentals they are shopping. When luck is playing a bigger role relative to talent, the marginal value of adding a guy like Workman or JBJ is reduced.
This might not apply to a team that has not had a shot in a long time trying to take advantage of an unexpected run, like maybe San Diego, Miami, Baltimore, or the Mets. I still think the overall trend will be smaller returns.
That should be very good for the sellers.There will also be more teams in the playoffs, so more buyers and less sellers than normal. Who knows how that will effect things.
Pretty sure he can't opt out until after the 2022 season. He's not going anywhere.The biggest question mark is probably Bogaerts. On a GREAT long-term deal, but can opt-out after this season. A risky move on his part should he go that route, because of the Covid situation impacting league finances but it's a risk for Boston to hold on to him only to have him opt out.
The good news for Boston is that if he does opt out, the Sox have oodles of cash now to be able to pay him even as a free agent.
But still...he's a huge question mark.
There will also be more teams in the playoffs, so more buyers and less sellers than normal. Who knows how that will effect things.
Having more teams buying CAN set up a bidding war, but I don't think the players the Sox are selling are good enough for that to be a factor. Maybe there is some individual team that sees this as an unexpected, one time shot, and goes all-in. This could make a difference, but it's hard to predict.That should be very good for the sellers.
Did some editing, hope you don't mind.Pretty disappointing that we're going to be sellers vs buyers at the trade deadline; I should definitely count my blessings that in my lifetime, this has not been the case inmost95% of the seasons and the teamwas in contention for the division or a wild card spothas won 4 World Championships over the last 15 years.
It's a weird season. Maybe few sellers and more buyers makes it a good sellers market. Maybe teams think it's more of a crapshoot this season so why spend assets. Maybe teams have to factor in the playoffs even happening. Who knows is the theme of the year.Having more teams buying CAN set up a bidding war, but I don't think the players the Sox are selling are good enough for that to be a factor. Maybe there is some individual team that sees this as an unexpected, one time shot, and goes all-in. This could make a difference, but it's hard to predict.
So my expectation is that prices are down as teams hedge, but I certain hope I am wrong.
I don't mind one bit as it's totally accurate.Did some editing, hope you don't mind.
Yes, I got him and JDM's contract opt-out clauses mixed up there.Pretty sure he can't opt out until after the 2022 season. He's not going anywhere.
While I think this is probably true, we might get a good return from a team that feels this might be a year to make a run for it - someone who hopes to get in, and then get lucky in the post season. But, I wouldn't expect a regular contender to mortgage their future for a short season ending in a tourney.Obviously a bizarre trade deadline for so many reasons. With expanded playoffs, most of the league is still in plausible Wild Card contention. Also, in a normal season we would still be in late April with minor league seasons underway, whereas now we have tiny samples size for Major Leaguers and basically no information on minor league trade candidates since the Fall and Winter leagues and Spring Training.
And then, of course, the elephant in the room: how likely are the playoffs to even happen this season? Two teams have already had outbreaks and been shut down for a while, the Mets are currently in isolation and postponing games indefinitely, and scientists continue to warn about a 2nd wave in the fall. As someone pointed out in another thread, how much are teams willing to give up in prospect return for a season that isn't guaranteed to finish?
For all these reasons, I'm with @allmanbro above: expect smaller returns, and don't expect teams to part with any of their top prospects.
I dont hate Hembree. He's been good far more often than not. But if a team will actually trade a baseball player for him, do it ASAP.View: https://twitter.com/ByRobertMurray/status/1296896950038601737?s=20
Phillies also interested in Hembree
Of course the crazy thing is, if Boston wants to compete in 2021, pitchers like Hembree will be needed to fill out the bullpen. Hembree makes 1.6m this year, and is arbitration eligible after that, so he's under team control through 2021. And he's been good for Boston throughout his career: 3.60 era, 1.37 whip (that's too high but manageable), 9.4 k/9. Not a frontline guy, but a really useful 5th type reliever who can pile up some innings.I dont hate Hembree. He's been good far more often than not. But if a team will actually trade a baseball player for him, do it ASAP.
If they plan on being competitive next season, they are definitely going to need to sign some bullpen help. Bloom might like what he has seen out of Valdez, thinks Hernandez will be a big part of the pen next season, and just wants to get rid of some of these middling guys for whatever he can get for them. Hembree has been solid but certainly not an irreplaceable piece. Maybe Bloom wants to remake the bullpen/pitching based on his philosophy, not just the holdovers from the last management team.Of course the crazy thing is, if Boston wants to compete in 2021, pitchers like Hembree will be needed to fill out the bullpen. Hembree makes 1.6m this year, and is arbitration eligible after that, so he's under team control through 2021. And he's been good for Boston throughout his career: 3.60 era, 1.37 whip (that's too high but manageable), 9.4 k/9. Not a frontline guy, but a really useful 5th type reliever who can pile up some innings.
So if they trade him, they'll just need to turn around and sign someone like him if they want a good bullpen next year.
They have a tremendous offense with a 117 OPS+. FIP thinks they have a pretty good rotation, even if ERA thinks it's more average; eye-balling the strand rates, it's not hard to see what's going on there, especially for Zach Eflin (2.81 FIP, 5.14 ERA, 60.4 LOB%).Phillies are 9-12. Why are they buying?
They just added Taylor and Hernandez from the COVID IL. It's a start.I hope they do just trade all of the relievers but man will this pitching staff be terrible to watch after they do that. Maybe they are just gonna call up Mata, Groome, etc?
Yeah, but they'd theoretically get younger talent under longer control for Hembree now, plus a Lux Tax reset (if the season lasts 10 more days).Of course the crazy thing is, if Boston wants to compete in 2021, pitchers like Hembree will be needed to fill out the bullpen. Hembree makes 1.6m this year, and is arbitration eligible after that, so he's under team control through 2021. And he's been good for Boston throughout his career: 3.60 era, 1.37 whip (that's too high but manageable), 9.4 k/9. Not a frontline guy, but a really useful 5th type reliever who can pile up some innings.
So if they trade him, they'll just need to turn around and sign someone like him if they want a good bullpen next year.
It’s not super clear, but there seem to be a couple ways around this. One is agreeing on someone and making them a PTBNL, another is that most teams seem to have open 60 man spots so they could add guys and then deal them.Since only players from the 60-man player pool are eligible to be traded this year, a lot of prospects from the lower rungs of organizations are off limits. I would think that makes it harder to pull off the "middling veteran for a lottery ticket" trade.
I think, if they trade guys, Houck coming up is probable, Mata is possible but not likely, and Groome is not coming.I hope they do just trade all of the relievers but man will this pitching staff be terrible to watch after they do that. Maybe they are just gonna call up Mata, Groome, etc?
They're 1.5 games out of a playoff spot and only 3 games out in the division. As has been mentioned, they have a good offense but have lost a few close games late. Shoring up the pen is exactly what they need to be doing.Phillies are 9-12. Why are they buying?
I think that is absolutely an open question, and I think the only way to conclude "yes" is to put a bunch of mostly-blind faith in the Bloom administration. The same Fangraphs article linked above notes that Brian Johnson is the only pitcher drafted by the Sox since 2007 to make more than 20 starts. It's a sign how bad things are that my main reaction to that fact was: "Brian Johnson made more than 20 starts?!"Serious question for the more well versed. Is the organization up to developing and "fixing" somewhat flawed pitchers? Especially younger ones?
Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree have both been garnering hits from multiple teams, according to industry sources. One team in need of ‘pen help bowed out on Workman, feeling the ask was too steep; but the Phillies have a ton of motivation
I don't get the rational in trading Vazquez. He won't be a free agent until 2023, and the only free agent catcher available worth even looking at is J.T. Realmuto, and I'm sure he'll be VERY expensive. IMHO Vazquez, Devers and Xander are the guys Bloom should be planning to build aroundGammons on MLB Network floated Vazquez may be getting shopped.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1296898078688116736
The fact he's tied up for 3 more years is exactly what makes him valuable as a trade chip. If they're serious about rebuilding, they need to stockpiling assets and, outside of X (or, even more unlikely, Devers), there really isn't anyone who might bring as much back as Vasquez.I don't get the rational in trading Vazquez. He won't be a free agent until 2023, and the only free agent catcher available worth even looking at is J.T. Realmuto, and I'm sure he'll be VERY expensive. IMHO Vazquez, Devers and Xander are the guys Bloom should be planning to build around
I definitely agree that Hembree has been "garnering hits from multiple teams" -- i.e., every Sox opponent. Ba-dum-tss. I'll be impressed if they get any value for him.
Rumored trade partner Philadelphia has three major-league caliber catchers, Oakland has three major league-caliber catchers, Cincinnati has three major league-caliber catchers, and Arizona has at least three major league-caliber catchers if the Diamondbacks choose to employ Daulton Varsho behind the plate. A creative general manager has ample opportunity to find another catcher to pair with Plawecki.But who would catch next year? No matter what they're still going to have to play the games, and I don't see any really good near term choices available to replace Vazquez. I guess the next two weeks will tell how far away management thinks they are from being a legitimate contender.
Couldn't they get around that by trading for a player to be named later? Like a post-waiver trade in other seasons.Since only players from the 60-man player pool are eligible to be traded this year, a lot of prospects from the lower rungs of organizations are off limits. I would think that makes it harder to pull off the "middling veteran for a lottery ticket" trade. Combined with the added randomness of a shorter season and larger playoffs (and uncertainty any of it gets completed), I don't think it's a good year to be a seller.
I think the issue with X is he has no-trade protections kick in before the offseason. Not that I think they should trade him now but that's why people have been theorizing about a pre-deadline trade.He same applies to X if that’s something they are thinking about.