Rafael Devers- Thoughts heading into 2021

allmanbro · Feb 26, 2021

Awesome post. I expect big things, but I recognize it may be colored by my hope for big things. In general, I am not reading too much into his poor performance last year, given the unusual season, and the fact that he is still only 24 and we'd expect some bumps in the road anyway. I really think last year was all about the slow start:

He was just awful for the first six weeks. The dip at the end is not great, but the start is what really drags down his season numbers.

I think the goal is overall production that roughly matches 2019, but with a slightly different profile: more HRs (35-40 if things go well), but a lower BA (probably more like .280-.290). I think the steamer projection looks like a good start, but would hope for a little added ISO/SLG:
Steamer says:
BBrate: 7.7%
Krate: 20.0%
BA: .281
OBP: .340
SLG: .530
HR: 35

TonyPenaNeverJuiced · Feb 28, 2021

After the quality of these first two posts, this thread is intimidating, which explains the lack of discussion so far on one of our most exciting and enjoyable players (IMO).

Digging in, Devers particularly struggled with fastballs in 2020. He whiffed on 35.5% of fastballs, an 11% uptick from a career-best 24.5% in 2019 ('18: 28.0; 17: 26.6; all stats from Statcast). By whatever measure, Devers just struggled with fastballs, four-seam or otherwise, but particularly four-seamers (whiffing 44.3% of the time when one was thrown).

I'm highlighting his whiffs here because Devers is swinging at the same % of fastballs as ever (around 50%). Pitchers are throwing more fastballs to him, but only barely ('17 & '18: ~57.5%; '19: 59.2; '20: 60.3). A third of the time, when he struck out, it was on a fastball ('17 & '18: ~26.2%; '19: 19.6). Something caused this precipitous drop.

In his four seasons, Dever's has been a rollercoaster against fastballs. Despite seeing the same number and swinging at the same percentage of heaters, his advanced hitting stats are peaks and valleys, with 2018 and 2020 being the lows. Comparing 2017 and 2020, years with remarkable similar sample sizes ('17: 514 FB/121 PA/165 Batted Balls; '20: 591/127/165 Batted Balls), yields remarkably similar results (Hits: 31 vs. 27; HR: 6 vs. 6; XBA: .220 vs. 217; ground ball %: 48.1 vs. 46.6; chasing %: 30.1 v. 31.3), and starkly different results (line drives are up 10%, foul balls are down 14%; barrels up 3.5%). I'll only add that this gets starker when you look at FanGraphs Fourseam stats.

I think this Roenicke quote from 9/8/20 is telling: "The high fastball . . . was something that he’s been chasing too much of. But that thing [a home run against a fastball] was really hit." When Devers hits a fastball, good things can happen.

I found this article after beginning this post (it contains some similar stats), and it makes some good, further points:

SPStreamer said:
The slump began with pitchers dominating Devers with fastballs. The drop in his xBA against fastballs from 2019 to 2020 was astounding, from .289 to .162. His drop-off in xSLG was even worse, from .550 to .418.
. . .
At the beginning of the 2020 season, pitchers attacked Devers with 50% Fastballs in July, but only a month later, that increased by 12% and stayed there through the end of the season as they watched him struggle. In the sprint of a season that was 2020, there was little chance to make adjustments and correct any poor mechanics.
. . .
Pitching off the high fastball, pitchers used their Breaking Balls to help get Devers off-balance and rollover on the ball to an abysmal 8-degree Launch Angle.
. . .

I suggest a read if you're interested. The article goes on to make some mechanical suggestions I won't pretend to be an area of my expertise (which is not really much of anything anyway!).

SPStreamer said:
There was an ever-so-slight change in his pre-swing load up (leg kick), which forced him to slightly lose control of his weight distribution.
. . .
In terms of mechanical adjustments, if Devers were to close his stance slightly and shorten his leg kick . . . there would be more time for adjustment.

What else to do? Well, in 2020 Devers stats with men on were substantially better than without, and he's even a tick better when they're in scoring position; he walked less and struck out more when there's no one on. I think Devers should be lower in the batting order and not bat 2nd. Whether it's because he times the ball better out of the stretch or because he's luckier/comfier without the shift, Devers should bat when there are runners on (duh). Tomase lays out the 2nd and 5th debate well and concludes as I would: I'd like Raf to hit after Bogey and J.D, and he should bat 5th in the lineup.

Minneapolis Millers · Mar 1, 2021

I have a hard time getting behind a plan that has X and Devers getting the 4th and 5th most ABs on a team that threatens to have a ton of hit and miss in the lineup, with an emphasis on the latter. Tomase isn’t convincing. Putting Hernandez and his .313 OBP at lead off makes zero sense to me. Verdugo, X, Devers, JDM sets the table and alternates well. If we don’t care about handedness in our top 4, then they could flip JD and Raffy, but I think I’d rather have a slimmed down Devers running in front of Martinez than vice versa.

geoduck no quahog · Mar 31, 2021

Is anyone besides myself surprised that the concept of Devers moving to 1B and Dalbec back to 3rd was never discussed?

Is it a frail ego thing? It just seemed to make sense (not that learning how to play 1st is a piece of cake)

Rwillh11 · Mar 31, 2021

geoduck no quahog said:
Is anyone besides myself surprised that the concept of Devers moving to 1B and Dalbec back to 3rd was never discussed?

Is it a frail ego thing? It just seemed to make sense (not that learning how to play 1st is a piece of cake)

I think there it's an interesting question why it hasn't been discussed more and why the team didn't seem to consider it.

Part of it may be that Dalbec is presumably also going to be the better defensive first baseman, and is 4-5 inches taller (officially 6'4" vs 6'0"). But I think more likely is that they aren't that sold on Dalbec being a foundational part of the team going forward. They want to see if he can stick as a major league player, and moving your star player off of the only position he's played for years to accommodate someone who might not be an important part of the team going forward has its own issues. This is probably even more true given that Devers is only 24 and has shown in the past that he can play at least an average third - he's obviously more valuable going forward as a third baseman.

If Dalbec shows he can hit major league pitching and Devers struggles at third this year, maybe they will revisit. But Dalbec also might strike out 40+% of the time and get sent down, in which case shuffling Devers around will have made no sense.

curly2 · Mar 31, 2021

The Sox may be thinking of Triston Casas as their first baseman of the future, and that future could arrive in 2022. That could be one reason to keep Devers at third.

Cesar Crespo · Mar 31, 2021

Or the team just doesn't think much of Dalbec at 3b for whatever reason. I could be remembering wrong, but I think most scouting reports had him ending up as average at best with time.

Red(s)HawksFan · Mar 31, 2021

Cesar Crespo said:
Or the team just doesn't think much of Dalbec at 3b for whatever reason. I could be remembering wrong, but I think most scouting reports had him ending up as average at best with time.

He's not significantly better than Devers at third, if he's better at all. His big plus is his arm, which is kinda wasted at first. But still, it boils down to him not being good enough at third to displace Devers. I don't think that reflects on Devers either. It's pretty rare for a prospect/rookie to push an incumbent out of his regular position.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Apr 1, 2021

Also... I think both management and Cora see Devers as an above average 3B using their own formulas, despite the popular stats. We know he actually has great footwork and movement and his "bad defensive 3B" seems to be mostly because of mental errors.

TonyPenaNeverJuiced · Apr 1, 2021

Minneapolis Millers said:
I have a hard time getting behind a plan that has X and Devers getting the 4th and 5th most ABs on a team that threatens to have a ton of hit and miss in the lineup, with an emphasis on the latter. Tomase isn’t convincing. Putting Hernandez and his .313 OBP at lead off makes zero sense to me. Verdugo, X, Devers, JDM sets the table and alternates well. If we don’t care about handedness in our top 4, then they could flip JD and Raffy, but I think I’d rather have a slimmed down Devers running in front of Martinez than vice versa.

Tomorrow's opening day lineup:
1. Kiké Hernandez, 2B
2. Alex Verdugo, CF,
3. J.D. Martinez, DH
4. Xander Bogaerts, SS
5. Rafael Devers, 3B
6. Hunter Renfroe, RF
7. Marwin Gonzalez, LF
8. Christian Vazquez, C
9. Bobby Dalbec, 1B
– Nathan Eovaldi, SP

Not saying anything you said was incorrect, but Cora's going for it. R>L>R>R>L.

Philip Jeff Frye · Apr 1, 2021

TonyPenaNeverJuiced said:
Tomorrow's opening day lineup:
1. Kiké Hernandez, 2B
2. Alex Verdugo, CF,
3. J.D. Martinez, DH
4. Xander Bogaerts, SS
5. Rafael Devers, 3B
6. Hunter Renfroe, RF
7. Marwin Gonzalez, LF
8. Christian Vazquez, C
9. Bobby Dalbec, 1B
– Nathan Eovaldi, SP

Not saying anything you said was incorrect, but Cora's going for it. R>L>R>R>L.

Ah, the good old days! It's like we're back in the 1970s when you made your middle infielders lead off men because they couldn't do anything else with the bat.

nvalvo · Apr 1, 2021

Philip Jeff Frye said:
Ah, the good old days! It's like we're back in the 1970s when you made your middle infielders lead off men because they couldn't do anything else with the bat.

I also worry that the run of righties Vaz/Dalbec/Hernández makes us vulnerable to a ROOGY, although I guess we'll usually have one of Marwin or Franchy on the bench.

Minneapolis Millers · Apr 1, 2021

After a month of spring training, with Hernandez taking up Cora’s challenge, I’m willing to see where this goes. (Of course, what choice do we have, exactly?). If Hernandez can really turn into a different hitter, great. Maybe it’s as simple as laying off junk and balls early in the count...

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Apr 6, 2021

Needless to say, I'm pretty sure that Devers will turn into a monster sooner rather than later... but his slow starts are so frustrating. Has to be mental?

bluefenderstrat · Apr 14, 2021

It looks like the slow start concerns have been erased for now! Should we start thinking about Devers as a long term extension target?

walt in maryland · Apr 14, 2021

bluefenderstrat said:
It looks like the slow start concerns have been erased for now! Should we start thinking about Devers as a long term extension target?

I'm sure the Sox "started" thinking about that some time ago.

nvalvo · Apr 14, 2021

I've mentioned this in the game thread a couple times, but I think Devers will be challenging to extend. Here's my reasoning:

He should want to be paid like an elite third baseman. In his eyes, his comps are guys like Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez, and Anthony Rendon. That's not unreasonable. Some of the guys have hit a bit better than he has, but he's younger than most of them, and his current performance is a 130ish OPS+ over the last few seasons. He's already a top-ten third baseman today, maybe top-five, and he still appears to have considerable untapped potential.
Giving him a deal based on Arenado's (8/$260, signed at age 28 with 5 years of service time, a 120ish OPS+ over the preceding few seasons, and plus defense) or Rendon's (7/$245, signed at 29 as a FA, a 130ish OPS+ over the preceding few seasons, and good defense) has huge bust potential.
- Devers has three years service time. An extension on that basis would probably be something like buying out his arb 4/5/6 years at 8/14/20 and then buying a bunch of FA seasons at $25 or 30m on top. Rendon and Arenado are signed through 36, but let's say we sign Devers through 34: a ten year deal would be worth something like 10/$240.
- Another comp is Alex Bregman's 5/$100m extension, which he signed with two years of service time and at age 25, that would be appealing. Bregman was a year older than Devers and had a year less service; this deal signed him through age 30. A comparable deal for Devers would be a bit more money: something like 5/$130 or 6/$150 might be comps.
  - I don't know that I take the Bregman deal if I'm advising Devers.
But is he actually a third baseman at all? The metrics say he's better than the eye test suggests, but I would have to think that the team should be skeptical about that, especially when you project out through the life of a hypothetical extension.
- If I'm at Bloom's desk, I think I would want to pay him more like a young, 130 OPS+ 1B/DH with offensive headroom.
- I'm saying that the comps are guys like Yordan Alvarez, Miguel Sano, Austin Meadows, Rowdy Tellez...
- Sano is the worst of that bunch, but he signed a 3/$30m extension. The rest of them will sign Nelson-Cruz-with-the-Mariners type deals: 3/$50, 4/$70 type deals.
That's a big difference, and I don't see how you settle it.

A lot depends on what the team actually thinks of Devers' defense. If they think it's actually good or has the potential to be good at third base, then there is probably the common ground necessary for an extension. But if they don't — and Devers does — there really might not be.

Merkle's Boner · Apr 14, 2021

I think a lot depends on what the Devers camp thinks of Raffy’s defense. If they realize he may not be long for 3B, and will have to move to 1B/DH eventually, I would think they might jump at a Bregman like deal of 5/$120 or so.

azsoxpatsfan · Apr 14, 2021

Devers defense is fascinating. He’s not a total butcher out there, and by UZR/150 is basically a slightly worse Bregman. The thing is there’s no real reason he can’t stay at 3rd-his range is above average, he has good hands and a good arm. The problem is that he occasionally just fucks up a routine throw/grounder, and that causes him to lose a lot of defensive value. I think part of it could legitimately be him overthinking it, as was raised as a possibility when he made that great catch on the liner and throw to first for the double play a few games ago. I’d give him this year to figure it out. In 2019, he was a plus defender, and if he can get back to that while OPSing .950, that’s an easy decision to extend imo

Niastri · Apr 14, 2021

One thing I think has to come into the calculation is Devers' newfound commitment to fitness.

I was shocked at how much weight he lost in the off-season, his body totally transformed.

If Devers keeps the weight off, that could have serious ramifications on both his ability to stay healthy and his ability to stay a third basemen into his 30s.

Both of which will dramatically effect how much money he can make. Or the Sox can afford to pay him.
With the huge difference in value over the two possible outcomes (as Illustrated by nvalvo above) the two sides will have a long way to meet in the middle to find an agreement.

Therefore, it seems likely an extension won't be possible until there are more data points, perhaps two whole seasons worth. I don't expect an extension before Devers' walk year, if ever.

Edit: P.S. Does anybody think his change in fitness might be a cause of his not so slow start? Is skinny-Devers also hot-right-out-of-the-gate Devers as well?

shaggydog2000 · Apr 14, 2021

Niastri said:
Edit: P.S. Does anybody think his change in fitness might be a cause of his not so slow start? Is skinny-Devers also hot-right-out-of-the-gate Devers as well?

Maybe, but we don't have a lot of evidence to base that off of. This is one time when he lost weight and had a good start, that is one set of events that could be totally unrelated. Remember that baseball is almost all an explosive sport, not an endurance one. You don't need the body of a distance runner to be good at it, as proven by the vast majority of baseball players ever. In the long run is not being heavy good for his joints? Most likely. Will it prevent the sorts of injuries baseball players get on a regular basis, which are related to the stresses of playing rather than just the stresses of being a big dude? I dunno. But this paper suggests there is some effect, with average and smaller players playing more games than heavier ones:

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/84114249.pdf

But as a counterpoint, OPS tracks positively with weight. If you think about pure explosiveness athletes like shotputters and weight lifters, they tend to be heavy dudes. Because like Mac on that one season of Always Sunny, they're constantly cultivating mass. Baseball isn't shotputting, but it's a lot closer to that than a sport like basketball is. And Devers has moved around fine at 3rd, showing plus range by metrics every year but last season. I don't know that him having a beach body is going to make a huge difference in his performance. But it does show that he was able to work out in the offseason and put in the time, which can't hurt.

soxhop411 · Apr 23, 2021

View: https://streamable.com/c7gpo9

“They pay me good. I play baseball. I hit homers”- Devers

put that on a fucking T-shirt and it will sell like hot cakes
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1385780851082993676

Heating up in the bullpen · Apr 23, 2021

soxhop411 said:
View: https://streamable.com/c7gpo9

“They pay me good. I play baseball. I hit homers”- Devers

put that on a fucking T-shirt and it will sell like hot cakes
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1385780851082993676

Good on you, Rafi! Keep it simple. B/c life can get complicated in a hurry.

brandonchristensen · Apr 23, 2021

Sign him while he is still childlike!

10 years at 1M a piece. Let's go!

soxhop411 · Apr 24, 2021

Heating up in the bullpen said:
Good on you, Rafi! Keep it simple. B/c life can get complicated in a hurry.

Yup. Hopefully we can sign him to an extension

Martin and Woods · Apr 24, 2021

brandonchristensen said:
Sign him while he is still childlike!

10 years at 1M a piece. Let's go!

Hell, give him 15 years then!

curly2 · May 9, 2021

Devers is such a good hitter. The AB where he hit the two-run double today, he took two ferocious cuts, trying to "leave Earth," as Eck would say. Then at 1-2, he got a tough two-strike pitch and did a great job to foul it off. Then he had a great swing for the double. So many guys would have struck out on the previous pitch, but he just tried to get a bat on the ball, then did damage on the next one.

Get him extended, Chaim.

brandonchristensen · May 9, 2021

curly2 said:
Devers is such a good hitter. The AB where he hit the two-run double today, he took two ferocious cuts, trying to "leave Earth," as Eck would say. Then at 1-2, he got a tough two-strike pitch and did a great job to foul it off. Then he had a great swing for the double. So many guys would have struck out on the previous pitch, but he just tried to get a bat on the ball, then did damage on the next one.

Get him extended, Chaim.

Yeah, I'd be thrilled if we made him a 10-year player for us. I guess the question is what could we get him for?

Would they scoff at 10/200? 10/250?

soxhop411 · May 9, 2021

View: https://twitter.com/SmittyOnMLB/status/1391534049873874947

BALTIMORE — Rafael Devers isn’t surprised the Boston Red Sox own MLB’s best record at 22-13.

“No, not at all,” Devers said via mental skills coach Rey Fuentes who was translating “We believe in each other. We believe in each other as a team. It’s you guys that don’t believe in us. But in this clubhouse and this team, we believe in each other and we knew we were a good team.”

l.”
“I become aggressive in that situation,” Devers said. “I look for pitchers that are in the zone. ... I get extra aggressive but within the zone.”

Devers also has played strong defense in recent weeks. He said he continues to work and he never stops working.

“I know that everybody makes errors,” Devers said. “It’s part of the game. There’s also many people out there that are pretty negative towards that every time I don’t make a play. ... I don’t control them. So I just continue working, continue on my own.”

I’m a person who loves to ask questions,” Devers said. “I love asking questions. So obviously when we’ve got somebody like Marwin who’s a veteran, who has been around for a while, I ask him, I listen to him. I listen to anything that he can give me that will help me. And I’m not afraid to ask him anything. So I got up to him and ask question, leaning on what he’s going to tell me.”

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · May 9, 2021

brandonchristensen said:
Yeah, I'd be thrilled if we made him a 10-year player for us. I guess the question is what could we get him for?

Would they scoff at 10/200? 10/250?

They certainly wouldn't scoff at those, but the Sox are probably more likely to try the 6/120 they gave to Xander.

Red(s)HawksFan · May 9, 2021

I think whatever the offer may be, it likely won't come until this winter, if only for luxury tax reasons. Any deal before the end of the season would be applied to this season and they don't have much wiggle room right now. But they've got about $15M in dead money freeing up (Benintendi and Pedroia money) that could be added to his current $4.6M and that gets him in the $20M AAV range all by itself. That seems like a good place to start from, though I expect it will take a bit more than that to lock him down.

EllisTheRimMan · May 10, 2021

soxhop411 said:
View: https://twitter.com/SmittyOnMLB/status/1391534049873874947

I want a hug from Raffy

EllisTheRimMan · May 10, 2021

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat said:
They certainly wouldn't scoff at those, but the Sox are probably more likely to try the 6/120 they gave to Xander.

It would be a fair offer and maybe the "X" factor is Bogey for Devers decision. They seem to be close and X is certainly a fair comp.

bluefenderstrat · May 10, 2021

“I know that everybody makes errors,” Devers said. “It’s part of the game. There’s also many people out there that are pretty negative towards that every time I don’t make a play. ... I don’t control them. So I just continue working, continue on my own.”

Raffy's been reading the game threads!

azsoxpatsfan · May 10, 2021

bluefenderstrat said:
Raffy's been reading the game threads!

Interestingly, Devers hasn’t been awful defensively this season. -1.9 UZR/150, so slightly below average but not terrible at all

OurF'ingCity · May 10, 2021

azsoxpatsfan said:
Interestingly, Devers hasn’t been awful defensively this season. -1.9 UZR/150, so slightly below average but not terrible at all

This roughly matches the eye test. I think Devers is just high variance - he makes a bunch of defensive plays that seem quite impressive, and then he fails to make a bunch of defensive plays that seem like they should be routine. But it evens out to an okay overall performance.

ehaz · May 10, 2021

Fangraphs: Rafael Devers still has another gear

This is fun.

"Devers' .281/.371/.544 slash line through games on Saturday actually represents one of the biggest under-performances in baseball relative to his batted ball quality."

Actual: .281/.371/.544
Expected: .340/.423/.684

BaseballJones · May 10, 2021

"On pace for" games are fun at this point in the season.

On pace for...

Devers: 46 2b, 37 hr, 130 rbi
Bogaerts: 46 2b, 32 hr, 93 rbi
Verdugo: 111 r
Martinez: 139 r, 46 hr, 143 rbi
Rodriguez/Pivetta: 23 wins
Barnes: 83 ip
Ottavino: 51 walks in 65 ip

Hairps · May 10, 2021

Weird thing about Devers' season so far:

Home:
68 PA, .679 OPS

Away:
68 PA, 1.223 OPS

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=deverra01&year=2021&t=b#plato

EllisTheRimMan · May 10, 2021

BaseballJones said:
"On pace for" games are fun at this point in the season.

On pace for...

Devers: 46 2b, 37 hr, 130 rbi
Bogaerts: 46 2b, 32 hr, 93 rbi
Verdugo: 111 r
Martinez: 139 r, 46 hr, 143 rbi
Rodriguez/Pivetta: 23 wins
Barnes: 83 ip
Ottavino: 51 walks in 65 ip

Barnes!!! But he is a rental. Ride him hard and put him to bed wet.

Ale Xander · May 10, 2021

Darling just called him the best bad ball hitter in the league since Vlad Guerrero (Sr.)

I cannot disagree.

Hairps · Jun 1, 2021

Devers has really struggled with fastballs so far this season. He's faced 486 of them so far (65% of the time):

BA: .165
Slug: .369
wOBA: .273

He's whiffed on them 39% of the time.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rafael-devers-646240?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Max Power · Jun 1, 2021

It's been shocking watching him swing through so many fastballs right down the middle. Pitchers were throwing fewer fastballs than ever the last couple of years, so maybe it's a conscious approach thing to deal with all the slower stuff. Maybe he overcorrected and needs to start looking for them again.

Year	Age	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2017	20	.284	.338	.482	.819	112
2018	21	.240	.298	.433	.731	94
2019	22	.311	.361	.555	.916	133
2020	23	.263	.310	.483	.793	110

Year	Barrel %	Hard Hit %	Exit Velocity
2017	8.5%	44.8%	89.8 mph
2018	9.1%	42.2%	91 mph
2019	9.0%	48.4%	92.5 mph
2020	12.1%	43.6%	93 mph

Year	K%	BB%	BB/K
2017	23.8%	7.5%	0.32
2018	24.7%	7.8%	0.31
2019	17.0%	6.8%	0.40
2020	27.0%	5.2%	0.19

Year	O-Swing%	Zone%	O-Swing vs MLB Ave	Zone vs MLB Ave
2017	36.0%	45.00%	6.1%	0.0%
2018	37.2%	40.40%	6.3%	-2.6%
2019	40.5%	40.40%	8.9%	-1.4%
2020	42.3%	37.30%	11.7%	-3.9%

Year	Barrel	Hard Hit	Exit Velocity	xwOBA
2018	67	75	85	21
2019	62	93	95	85
2020	80	74	96	51

Rafael Devers- Thoughts heading into 2021

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!

not particularly consistent

Member

Member

79

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Wants you to please think of the Twins fans!

Member

Member

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Does not enjoy the go

Member

Member

news aggravator

Member

Loves Aaron Judge

news aggravator

New Member

Member

Loves Aaron Judge

news aggravator

has big, douchey shoulders

Member

Member

Member

Member

Does not enjoy the go

Member

Member

slappy happy

Well-Known Member

Member

Hamilton

Well-Known Member

thai good. you like shirt?