Playoff Rematches

[soxfan121]

Kostya Medvedovsky with a look at the data on rematches in the postseason: 
 

For example, my version of Simple Rating System (“SRS”) says the Patriots should be favored by approximately 7.1 points. Football Outsiders expects a closer game, putting the line at 5.7 points. However, both these systems largely ignore the fact that the teams played earlier this year, with the Patriots winning comfortably on the road, 42-20.
 
Does this matter? Do playoff rematches resemble their regular season counterparts? Let’s take a quick look through NFL history to see what can be gleaned.
 

 
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Also: 
 
Here's what FC wrote in the regular season: http://soshcentral.com/nfl/games/previews/2015/01/11/back-future-patriots-vs-colts-analysis-review/
 
And here's the thoughts on the rematch: http://soshcentral.com/nfl/games/previews/2015/01/16/2015-afc-championship-coverage-patriots-vs-colts/

 

[Oppo]

Great article, as usual.
Did you look at division rivals meeting in the playoffs? Does a team that sweeps the regular season win in the playoffs? Does a season split mean a close game? Everyone points to rivals like steelers-ravens, pats-jets-dolphins, etc saying they're so familiar with each other that they always play close games, wondering if this actually pans out in the playoffs.

 

[bowiac]

Great article, as usual.
Did you look at division rivals meeting in the playoffs? Does a team that sweeps the regular season win in the playoffs? Does a season split mean a close game? Everyone points to rivals like steelers-ravens, pats-jets-dolphins, etc saying they're so familiar with each other that they always play close games, wondering if this actually pans out in the playoffs.

This is a good note, and something I forgot to include in the article. Division rematches were excluded, because they weren't directly comparable to this week's games. It's hard to know how to factor them in here (if Baltimore wins one blowout, loses a close game, then what is that for rematch purposes?).