Pats Draft Rd.1/15: QB Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones

simplyeric

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apologies..who is this tweeter?
I mean, if you ding Jimmy G, then you have to admit to the possibility that Josh Allen (or possibly Lamar) turns into a pumpkin this fall.
And that's not addressing Watson. The (grand) jury is likely still out.

But the larger point is that *maybe* the CBA change caused this, but I'd need more than a toting-up to believe it.
Further apologies: I've seen a couple mentions of the CBA related to stats and such...what is this about? Is it rookie contract terms?
Yeah, fail across the board there (although I'm inclined to give the near octogenarian -- no relation to Berj Najarian -- a free pass).

Let's hope they draft better dressers in rounds 2-7!
Yeah the Krafts pants are too long, and for gods sake those sneakers!

While they might be able to draft better dressers in later rounds, I have confidence that McCorkle will not be a starter in 2021, at least certainly not early in the season.
But that he's smart and will learn a lot from Cam...about fashion.
40726
 

Cellar-Door

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Further apologies: I've seen a couple mentions of the CBA related to stats and such...what is this about? Is it rookie contract terms?
The 2011 CBA significantly reduced a bunch of practice things.. # of full padded practices, elimination of full 2 a days, reduction of allowable OTA days, significant reduction in offseason programs, etc.
Some analysts think that it has made it a lot harder to develop pocket QBs
 

Ale Xander

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apologies..who is this tweeter?
Further apologies: I've seen a couple mentions of the CBA related to stats and such...what is this about? Is it rookie contract terms?

Yeah the Krafts pants are too long, and for gods sake those sneakers!

While they might be able to draft better dressers in later rounds, I have confidence that McCorkle will not be a starter in 2021, at least certainly not early in the season.
But that he's smart and will learn a lot from Cam...about fashion.
View attachment 40726
what shade is that? Doesn’t look like salmon or peach.
 

Cellar-Door

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So after a few days.. my opinion on Jones hasnt changed but my opinion of the pick has.

I think I was too caught up in comparing to Lance and Fields. If you take as a given that a tradeup wasn't possible (at a reasonable price) then I think it's a good pick.
Yes I think Jones reasonable ceiling is probably Kirk Cousins, but... if this were a team I don't root for I would follow the maxim of "if you don't have your long term QB, keep taking shots until you do", and while Jones may not have likely star upside, he could be a good QB before the end of his rookie deal, and that has a lot of value. And... this shouldn't stop the Patriots from keeping their QB options open in trade and/or the next draft. You can probably sell Jones on for something decent (see Darnold, who was bad everytime he played and still returned value) if you find something better.
 

tmracht

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So after a few days.. my opinion on Jones hasnt changed but my opinion of the pick has.

I think I was too caught up in comparing to Lance and Fields. If you take as a given that a tradeup wasn't possible (at a reasonable price) then I think it's a good pick.
Yes I think Jones reasonable ceiling is probably Kirk Cousins, but... if this were a team I don't root for I would follow the maxim of "if you don't have your long term QB, keep taking shots until you do", and while Jones may not have likely star upside, he could be a good QB before the end of his rookie deal, and that has a lot of value. And... this shouldn't stop the Patriots from keeping their QB options open in trade and/or the next draft. You can probably sell Jones on for something decent (see Darnold, who was bad everytime he played and still returned value) if you find something better.
Yes even look at the situation for Josh Rosen as a similar comp. If you end up with a better QB, a rookie QB from the mid first round that shows anything can still recoup decent value.
 

BaseballJones

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Joel Klatt on the Herd said: "What I've been told they did fall in love w/ Mac Jones then they made the trade and then they sat back and realized why did we do that we could have got him at 12... So then they started doing more homework..."

So how does the draft unfold if SF takes Jones at #3 instead of Lance? Do the Pats - who apparently liked Jones more than Fields and were thrilled that they could get Jones at #15 without having to move up - trade up for Lance? Do the Falcons take Lance at #4? How different do things go if the 49ers take Mac at #3?
 

tims4wins

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Reiss with an important note on his salary:

Jones' contract with the Patriots will be four years, $15.58 million, fully guaranteed, and include an $8.6 million signing bonus. The deal, like all first-round picks, will include a fifth-year option. That's a great contract for the Patriots -- assuming Jones pans out. Had Jones gone to the 49ers at No. 3, he would have signed a four-year, $34.105 million deal that was fully guaranteed.
That is a massive difference in value for the Pats. Everyone has focused on the value of using the 15th pick vs. an earlier pick (and potentially giving up a future pick or another 2021 pick), but the salary savings are huge.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Having a starting QB with a $4m/yr contract gives BB so much flexibility.

If—and not a huge one at that—Jones pan out as even a sightly above-average playcaller, NE would have acquired NFL's most sought-after commodity type without spending any extra assets.
 

simplyeric

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I think it was posted last night but an even better version

View: https://twitter.com/BobbyBeltTX/status/1387955848459206658
They both walk like they aren't fully aware of their forearms. It's weird. Not that it really means much. But I wonder kinda feel like he could really firm up his posture, and his core, and upper body. Like, it's not that he's inherently floppy, he just hasn't grown into/worked into a more athletic form. Room for growth.
 

Bowser

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They both walk like they aren't fully aware of their forearms. It's weird. Not that it really means much. But I wonder kinda feel like he could really firm up his posture, and his core, and upper body. Like, it's not that he's inherently floppy, he just hasn't grown into/worked into a more athletic form. Room for growth.
Maybe a bit too much arm swing? Look at the dude behind BB. That's how you do it.
 

JM3

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So after a few days.. my opinion on Jones hasnt changed but my opinion of the pick has.

I think I was too caught up in comparing to Lance and Fields. If you take as a given that a tradeup wasn't possible (at a reasonable price) then I think it's a good pick.
Yes I think Jones reasonable ceiling is probably Kirk Cousins, but... if this were a team I don't root for I would follow the maxim of "if you don't have your long term QB, keep taking shots until you do", and while Jones may not have likely star upside, he could be a good QB before the end of his rookie deal, and that has a lot of value. And... this shouldn't stop the Patriots from keeping their QB options open in trade and/or the next draft. You can probably sell Jones on for something decent (see Darnold, who was bad everytime he played and still returned value) if you find something better.
I think it's pretty clear that a trade up at a reasonable price was available - Patriots just didn't value the QBs the same way we did.

If you had told me before the draft we could have had Fields for 2 1sts or Jones for 1 1st, I would take Fields for 2 1sts in a heartbeat.

Yes, the Bears added a 3rd & a 4th, but it would cost more than that to move from 20 to 15, so the cost to trade with the Giants should potentially have been less than 2 1sts.

So since I don't agree with the premise I can't agree with the conclusion. But like if it was against the rules for the Patriots to trade up, I would be ~fine with the pick.

Kirk Cousins provided positive value for the 1st time in his 4th season, which was his age 27 season. So if you think Cousins is the ceiling, which I tend to agree with, Jones has to get to the point of competence younger than Cousins, & in the same year in the NFL, to provide surplus value on his rookie contract.
 

snowmanny

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That Bears 2022 first could be very valuable. I mean obviously you never know and the NFC North is a bit uncertain everywhere you look. But I would have rather had 2021 #20 plus Bears 2022 first than 2021 #15 plus Pats 2022 first.
 

j44thor

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I think it's pretty clear that a trade up at a reasonable price was available - Patriots just didn't value the QBs the same way we did.

If you had told me before the draft we could have had Fields for 2 1sts or Jones for 1 1st, I would take Fields for 2 1sts in a heartbeat.

Yes, the Bears added a 3rd & a 4th, but it would cost more than that to move from 20 to 15, so the cost to trade with the Giants should potentially have been less than 2 1sts.

So since I don't agree with the premise I can't agree with the conclusion. But like if it was against the rules for the Patriots to trade up, I would be ~fine with the pick.

Kirk Cousins provided positive value for the 1st time in his 4th season, which was his age 27 season. So if you think Cousins is the ceiling, which I tend to agree with, Jones has to get to the point of competence younger than Cousins, & in the same year in the NFL, to provide surplus value on his rookie contract.
I think this is wrong. It was reported that 2022 draft picks were considered gold during the draft because there will be many more players in the draft and obviously much better information/scouting etc. If the Bears were offering a 2022 1st that was going to beat anything NE could offer that didn't include a 2022 1st. I'd also be willing to bet BB wasn't about to give up a 2022 1st for the same reasons teams coveted them so much.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I’m good with not giving up a 2022 first and more to get Fields, I don’t think he’s the caliber of prospect to justify that investment, and you better hit on that pick if you’re gonna put those kind of chips into the middle of the table.
 

JM3

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That Bears 2022 first could be very valuable. I mean obviously you never know and the NFC North is a bit uncertain everywhere you look. But I would have rather had 2021 #20 plus Bears 2022 first than 2021 #15 plus Pats 2022 first.
Our 1st next year having more value than the Bears is definitely a fair critique. We're projected to win 2 more games than them (9 to 7).
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I think it's pretty clear that a trade up at a reasonable price was available - Patriots just didn't value the QBs the same way we did.

If you had told me before the draft we could have had Fields for 2 1sts or Jones for 1 1st, I would take Fields for 2 1sts in a heartbeat.

Yes, the Bears added a 3rd & a 4th, but it would cost more than that to move from 20 to 15, so the cost to trade with the Giants should potentially have been less than 2 1sts.

So since I don't agree with the premise I can't agree with the conclusion. But like if it was against the rules for the Patriots to trade up, I would be ~fine with the pick.

Kirk Cousins provided positive value for the 1st time in his 4th season, which was his age 27 season. So if you think Cousins is the ceiling, which I tend to agree with, Jones has to get to the point of competence younger than Cousins, & in the same year in the NFL, to provide surplus value on his rookie contract.
The cost to trade up is whatever the market will bear. I can't imagine the Giants deciding to trade the pick to us for less than two 1sts given that they had the Bears offer on the table. The trust cost may have been more than that. As has been pointed out by others, even Dave Gettelman can probably figure out that a Bears first rounder in 2022 is going to be more valuable than a Patriots first rounder in expectation.

The other point here is that the draft itself gave us some valuable information about how the rest of the league views Fields, in that QB-needy teams passed on him at 7, 8, and 9 and no other team was (we can infer) willing to make those teams an offer they couldn't refuse to go up and get him. Projecting QBs is a crapshoot so who knows how he turns out. But I think its pretty clear at this point that the draft hype industry overall rated Fields much more highly than the actual NFL.
 

JM3

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I think this is wrong. It was reported that 2022 draft picks were considered gold during the draft because there will be many more players in the draft and obviously much better information/scouting etc. If the Bears were offering a 2022 1st that was going to beat anything NE could offer that didn't include a 2022 1st. I'd also be willing to bet BB wasn't about to give up a 2022 1st for the same reasons teams coveted them so much.
I didn't mean to imply that we wouldn't have to give up our 2022 1st, just that the Giants maybe would kick back a little something like a 6th because our 2 1sts were more valuable than the Bears', but Manny made a good point about our 2022 1st being less valuable, so I rescind that.
 

JM3

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I’m good with not giving up a 2022 first and more to get Fields, I don’t think he’s the caliber of prospect to justify that investment, and you better hit on that pick if you’re gonna put those kind of chips into the middle of the table.
Well, that's what it comes down to, right? One's own individual assessment of the delta in value between Fields & Jones. If you think that delta is small, or non-existent, as the Patriots appear to, then obviously you stay put.

I think the delta is quite large so am willing to pay fairly significantly for what I perceive to be a significant upgrade.
 

JM3

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The cost to trade up is whatever the market will bear. I can't imagine the Giants deciding to trade the pick to us for less than two 1sts given that they had the Bears offer on the table. The trust cost may have been more than that. As has been pointed out by others, even Dave Gettelman can probably figure out that a Bears first rounder in 2022 is going to be more valuable than a Patriots first rounder in expectation.

The other point here is that the draft itself gave us some valuable information about how the rest of the league views Fields, in that QB-needy teams passed on him at 7, 8, and 9 and no other team was (we can infer) willing to make those teams an offer they couldn't refuse to go up and get him. Projecting QBs is a crapshoot so who knows how he turns out. But I think its pretty clear at this point that the draft hype industry overall rated Fields much more highly than the actual NFL.
Yeah. We shall see who is right. I'd be even more disappointed if it was Lance who was available & they didn't go get him.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Yeah. We shall see who is right. I'd be even more disappointed if it was Lance who was available & they didn't go get him.
I'd love to know what BB's plan was if Jones went at 3 and it was Lance that fell along with Fields. Put that one in the already enormous pile of "God, it would be awesome if BB wrote a tell all football memoir after the retires and discusses X."
 

JM3

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I'd love to know what BB's plan was if Jones went at 3 and it was Lance that fell along with Fields. Put that one in the already enormous pile of "God, it would be awesome if BB wrote a tell all football memoir after the retires and discusses X."
Would read.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I'd love to know what BB's plan was if Jones went at 3 and it was Lance that fell along with Fields. Put that one in the already enormous pile of "God, it would be awesome if BB wrote a tell all football memoir after the retires and discusses X."
The seemingly reasonable possibilities are: drafted Lance/Fields and pursued a veteran QB or traded out and pursued a veteran QB.

I think Jones was their guy all along, though.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think it's pretty clear that a trade up at a reasonable price was available - Patriots just didn't value the QBs the same way we did.

If you had told me before the draft we could have had Fields for 2 1sts or Jones for 1 1st, I would take Fields for 2 1sts in a heartbeat.

Yes, the Bears added a 3rd & a 4th, but it would cost more than that to move from 20 to 15, so the cost to trade with the Giants should potentially have been less than 2 1sts.

So since I don't agree with the premise I can't agree with the conclusion. But like if it was against the rules for the Patriots to trade up, I would be ~fine with the pick.

Kirk Cousins provided positive value for the 1st time in his 4th season, which was his age 27 season. So if you think Cousins is the ceiling, which I tend to agree with, Jones has to get to the point of competence younger than Cousins, & in the same year in the NFL, to provide surplus value on his rookie contract.
There are too many variables to know what a trade-up would cost, so my thought is, you accept that Bill did not think it was available at a reasonable cost. Then I grade from there. Knowing that you're at 15 and Fields is off the board, is this a good pick.

And to me the answer is... yeah probably, Jones has the potential to be a good QB for us, and he's cheap and will hold value for a while so we can go after a higher upside QB without any restriction if one becomes available via trade or draft.
 

Cellar-Door

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Washington or NO later in the round would have made sense. Hell, maybe even Tampa, which took Trask in round 2.
I think the Steelers would have considered him, and the Broncos might have considered trading up from 35 into the late 20s if he was there.
 

streeter88

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Great stuff. For those with really short attention spans, just go to this play at about 36:33
Love the @mascho breakdowns. Miss him doing the Locked on Patriots broadcasts. The replacement they hired is just bad.

Wow. At 45:55, Waldman is saying that Cousins 2.0 is "almost an injustice to Mac Jones." Schofield chimes in saying "Cousins is the floor for him." This is really good tape - and excellent analysis of his mechanics, vision, staying in on the throw knowing he's about to get levelled, etc. Thanks for sharing!

Edit: I know Patriots Nation really wanted Justin Fields, and I haven't watched tape from these two guys breaking Fields down, but they are really really excited for Mac Jones. Waldman at 46:55 "You know, I'm actually kinda pissed off the more I watch this, because I wish I had put Peyton Manning as my comp for him." Which makes Mark Schofield laugh a bit, but neither of them dismiss the notion afterwards.

In fact they double down on it within a minute: "He moves in the pocket like Peyton there, and then just drops it in the bucket - oh man!" "That's a 'Put the pen down' kind of play." on the TD throw after stepping up in the pocket at 48:00 or so. "I mean this is Brady and Peyton wrapped into one - that feel for the back side pressure, eyes in the back of his head..." High praise.

OK one last quote: "I'm sorry man, but... there's a part of me that wants to say, you're a fool for feeling like this is a consolation prize - this is a GOOD quarterback class.... I'd give anything to have him in Cleveland right now - that's how I feel. and Baker played well this year." (Waldman)

Final thoughts at 54:00: "Athleticism and arm strength tend to help aid the development process (because you can make up for it with arm strength) ... but when you have his mental process, it's not as much of a problem." Then they talk about where he could end up. And Schofield says "that team at 15" then embellishes on it. Hilarious final line from Waldman about a potential BB "villain moment" ... "always wanted to play with Peyton Manning."

I hope everyone gets a chance to watch this tape.
 
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Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I don’t think either of those guys actually believe Cousins is the floor (they’re too smart for that) and mascho was actually higher on Fields. But it’s hard not to get excited about Jones watching that piece.
 

EL Jeffe

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Jim Nagy (Senior Bowl director, ex NE/NFL scout) was on Phil Perry's podcast after the Senior Bowl, and he gave some great insight into Mac. Perry asked him about Mac's athletic limitations and the other QBs having higher ceilings because of it. Nagy gave a fascinating answer which sort of stopped me in my tracks and made me reevaluate some of my preconceived opinions. Paraphrasing, Nagy mentioned media/fans/Draft Twitter correlate upside and ceiling to their physical ability but the NFL doesn't. think that way. He said Mac is relatively inexperienced, with 17 starts. He's already this good and the game is already pretty slow for him; how good is he going to be with more experience the way he studies and learns? He pointed out how Mac just kept getting exponentially better the more he played, capped off with a great CFB playoff run; why just assume he's leveled out? There's a ceiling and upside component to the mental part of the game as well. Just like every player has different physical ability, every player also has different processing abilities. (He also mentioned Mac is definitely a better athlete with a better arm than a lot of people give him credit for).
 

mauf

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The other point here is that the draft itself gave us some valuable information about how the rest of the league views Fields, in that QB-needy teams passed on him at 7, 8, and 9 and no other team was (we can infer) willing to make those teams an offer they couldn't refuse to go up and get him.
Totally agree. We hear so much from the people who cover the draft that we assume the things that all of them think are true are in fact true, but they have some collective blind spots. Baker Mayfield a few years ago is a good example — the media was shocked he went #1 overall, but in retrospect it’s pretty clear most insiders had him near the top of the board. This year, the media missed that NFL talent evaluators split the QBs into two tiers, with Fields and Jones a cut below the other three. (OK, it’s probably three tiers with Lawrence in his own tier, but you get the idea.)
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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(He also mentioned Mac is definitely a better athlete with a better arm than a lot of people give him credit for).
I don't watch a lot of college football but that jumped out at me from the Waldman/Schofield tape review piece as well. He's certainly not an elite athlete but he isn't a statue back there either. The play around 8:00 against Notre Dame with the unblocked blitzer was talked about mainly in terms of his ability to diagnose the blitz/protection mismatch early and start his escape, but the footspeed was actually pretty decent and the throw on the run was right on the money.

I wonder whether Jones gets a little a bit of a bad rep regarding mobility due to the Sarkisian system, which involves nearly zero QBs runs and also has him protected enough not to put him in a lot of scramble situations. Tua is generally seen as a fairly athletic QB but he went from running for 190 yards and 5 TDs in 2018 to running for 17 yards and 2 TDs (in only 9 games) in 2019 after Sarkisian arrived. So I think Jones' similarly low college rushing yards under Sarkisian probably needs to be viewed in that context. He clearly isn't going to be a designed run threat in the NFL and he's not going to be extending plays like Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, but he's not Drew Bledsoe (or Tom Brady).
 

simplyeric

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Great stuff. For those with really short attention spans, just go to this play at about 36:33
That's a great play. I count up to 4 reads on that play and he looked past a guy who was pretty wide open short middle, because he had a great read on the fact that his longer option had position in front of his defender and was breaking open right, with just enough time before he took a hit right up the middle. I'm not an X/O guy by any means, but I could see plays like that with the two TE set and and a slot guy, and if M-Jo can make those reads and make that pass, I'll be looking forward to popping the McCork!
 

tims4wins

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Apparently the Vikings wanted Fields, but obviously not enough to give up what was required to move up. This is an interesting data point, because (in theory) their offer would have beaten the Pats. So this seems like evidence of a team actually liking him and yet still not being willing to move up just 3 spots to get him. I wonder if the Giants just thought the Bears offer was the best on the table since it includes a potentially extremely valuable 2022 first, whereas in theory the Vikes offer would have probably been 14 + their 2021 2nd rounder.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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I was reading the Favre article in the Rodgers thread and came across an interesting excerpt:

In hindsight, much of it had to do with a cold-footed reaction to negative scouting reports. Shortly before the draft, for example, a scout for an NFC team told Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette that he would pass on Rodgers. “I just think Aaron's the product of being on a good team,” the scout said. “He's got a good running back who takes a lot of the pressure off him, they throw a lot of screens and dump balls. I see Utah winning because of Alex Smith, he's the one that does it. I don't think Cal was winning because of Aaron Rodgers.” Jaworski repeatedly cited Rodgers’ “blemishes,” and said he did not project well to the NFL. There was also the matter of finances. First-round draft choices are expensive, and first-round quarterbacks tend to be very expensive. Of the 21 teams picking ahead of Green Bay,12 were about to take a quarterback salary cap hit in excess of $2.4 million for 2005.
A QB evaluated as a product of his environment, who's success is a result of a tremendous supporting cast and an offensive system predicated on screens and excellent skill position play. I went as far to look at some quotes from other sources here. The knocks on Rodgers aren't the same that evaluators have on Jones, but it goes to show what a crapshoot player evaluation really is. It sure would be sweet to see Mac continue to elevate his game to anything that approximates what Aaron has done in Green Bay.
 

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Having a starting QB with a $4m/yr contract gives BB so much flexibility.

If—and not a huge one at that—Jones pan out as even a sightly above-average playcaller, NE would have acquired NFL's most sought-after commodity type without spending any extra assets.
Not calling out SSF here as I saw myself and a ton of others doing this too mentally and then I looked into the recent history. I think being a bit more conservative on Mac Jones' potential to succeed may be smart.

The Sporting News had an interesting article ranking the 60 first round QBs since 2000. I think ignoring 2019-2020 at least is probably a good idea (I think SN severely underrated those QBs as well, they seemed to strictly on output as opposed to remaining upside), so 53 QBs from 2000-2018 means your mid-performer among first round QBs is a Jameis Winston or Sam Darnold type. They're surrounded by the likes of Bridgewater, Bradford, Sanchez, Vince Young, Mariota, Tannehill, etc. Getting an NFL Above Average playcaller from the pick would be a pretty big win - certainly better odds than most other ways (like I think most of us would be happy with 30-40% of the list as a starting QB in years 3 or 4) but I'd probably consider it a pretty big if at this point.

With that said, if you're asking me to list good systems and situations, I'd much rather have a QB developed under this coaching regiment with the existing surrounding talent than any other situation a QB got thrown into except maybe San Fran.