NY rotation 2024

jon abbey

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I'm starting this for two reasons:

1) There has been lots of smoke this week connecting NY and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but of course there will probably be 15-20 other teams going after him hard also. The interesting thing here to me is that NY hasn't ruled out a third giant SP contract for the right player, despite Cole and Rodon making $63M combined AAV through 2028.

2) NY has a bunch of very promising internal SP candidates for next year, none of whom are yet on the 40 man or will need to be in November. Some of them have been shut down now after hitting innings limits, I thought it would be interesting to list where those stand.

Will Warren is up to 119 innings now, 129 last year, a 2021 draft pick. He is still pitching in AAA and only getting better, 1 ER total allowed in his last three starts in a league where the average ERA is around 5.50.

Chase Hampton, 106.2 innings in his first pro season after being a 2022 draft pick, he is shut down for the year after vaulting into a bunch of top 100 lists.

Drew Thorpe, also a 2022 draft pick, 139.1 innings in his first pro season and now shut down. He has a shot to win best pitcher in the entire minor leagues this year, 14-2 with a 2.52 ERA and a MILB leading 182 Ks (just 38 walks).

Richard Fitts, a 2021 pick who was the best SP in the AA Eastern League for most of the season until hitting a bit of a wall recently, he is at 146 innings after 112 last season, not shut down yet.

So the two 2021 draft picks are still going, the two 2022 ones are shut down. Cashman has done a fantastic job rebuilding the SP pool for NY in the high minors after gutting it at the 2022 deadline, amazing that none of those four even need to be on the 40 man yet and they've all already been very successful at AA or AAA (just Warren).
 

jon abbey

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Ahead of those guys, NY is in pretty good shape already potentially (assuming bounceback seasons from Rodon and Cortes):

Cole
Rodon
Cortes
Schmidt
King

Vasquez
Brito

And Domingo German is in limbo, potentially under contract for one more season and talented enough to have thrown a perfect game this season.
 

jon abbey

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I think NY is probably going to trade a younger SP or two this winter, let's check how much team control these guys have.

Cole (2028 or 2029)
Rodon (2028)
Cortes (2025)
Schmidt (2027)
King (2025)

Plus a year of German if they tender him a deal, Vasquez, Brito and the 5-6 younger guys pushing for a chance. It feels like they will deal from this possible surplus for younger position players, for instance Schmidt to STL for LH hitting seems like it could make sense both ways.
 

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I think NY is probably going to trade a younger SP or two this winter, let's check how much team control these guys have.

Cole (2028 or 2029)
Rodon (2028)
Cortes (2025)
Schmidt (2027)
King (2025)

Plus a year of German if they tender him a deal, Vasquez, Brito and the 5-6 younger guys pushing for a chance. It feels like they will deal from this possible surplus for younger position players, for instance Schmidt to STL for LH hitting seems like it could make sense both ways.
Do you think they could get a taker for a heavily subsidized Rodon? I never understood that contract.
 

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I would be shocked if they even tried to move Rodon. Better to see if he can start the next season healthy and rebound.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah no chance IMO they will move or try to move Rodon, his last start was actually quite promising as he finally seems to accept he needs to mix in his 3rd and 4th pitch occasionally. His remaining few starts this year are important, next one is this afternoon.
 

jon abbey

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NY's SP prospects all finishing the year strong, Will Warren with a career high 10 Ks today in 5 innings after Clayton Beeter (13 Ks) and Richard Fitts (11 Ks) had their own career highs earlier this week.
 

jon abbey

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Sox fans are well aware how much better Nick Pivetta has been out of the bullpen this year, NY quietly has an even more extreme version:

Pivetta:

13 GS, 66.2 IP, 5.81 ERA
22 games as a reliever, 55.2 IP, 3.07 ERA

Jhony Brito:

13 GS, 52.2 IP, 6.32 ERA
9 games as a reliever, 29 IP, 1.24 ERA

Brito has adapted incredibly to this role, yesterday he retired all nine batters he faced mid-game. They have more exciting SP prospects on the way, but Brito could make a great long guy.
 

jon abbey

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It was a long time ago, but in Sept 2018, 23 year old Michael King absolutely dominated AAA, a 1.15 ERA in 6 starts, just 5 ERs allowed in 39 innings. He started a few games for NY in 2020 and 2021 but seemed destined for (often dominant) long relief, occasionally high leverage late game innings.

But when NY fell out of contention this year, he pushed again to be given a shot in the rotation and he has been remarkable. He has started six games since 8/24, with his pitch count gradually creeping up, and the results have been similar to his 2018 AAA dominance.

28.1 24 6 4 4 42, 1.27 ERA, 0.72 FIP, .531 OPS allowed.

A 42/4 K/BB ratio in 28 innings is pretty crazy, King seems to have won himself a rotation spot for 2024.
 

jon abbey

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Gonna do an update here once things settle down a bit, but I wanted to note that NY is evidently so comfortable with their SP depth that even though they must have known that Spence and Sauer would go in the rule 5 and they would have to send a bunch of pitching to SD for Soto, they still were OK with sending Fitts to BOS for a one year rental in Verdugo. They traded 10 pitchers at the 2022 deadline, and have moved/lost 5 more since last night, and that's before the Soto deal finalizes. Whatever Matt Blake's salary is, Cashman should probably double it.
 

jon abbey

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So of the 11 SPs I listed upthread in Sept., NY traded five of them in the last two days. The depth chart is now a much thinner:

Cole
Rodon
Cortes
Schmidt
Will Warren

Hampton
Beeter

If Yoendrys Gomez and/or Luis Gil can handle a starter's load this year, that would help, but NY needs to add here now.

(FYI, I think Richard Fitts would slot somewhere between 6-8 here if NY hadn't traded him to BOS yesterday)
 

jon abbey

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Gerrit Cole
Carlos Rodon
Marcus Stroman
Nestor Cortes
Clarke Schmidt

Luke Weaver

Cody Poteet
Cody Morris
Will Warren
Clayton Beeter
Luis Gil
Yoendrys Gomez
 

j-man

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There is a thread here on that:

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/ny-bullpen-2024.41285/

I think they’d like to add one more not too expensive guy, maybe Middleton again. They could use another lefty and Wandy Peralta is still out there, but I think he might be broken after NY used him five straight days in the 2022 ALDS.
thanks it looks good as long as inj does not happen again if it get into late feb i wouild love to see 3B J turner on a 1yr deal
 

jon abbey

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OK, Opening Day rosters announced for AA, A+ and low A today, so I will take a first run at the rotations at each level. I'll tweak this as they play games and I see actual rotations:

Rodon
Stroman
Cortes
Schmidt
Gil

AAA: *Will Warren, Cody Poteet, *Clayton Beeter, Edgar Barclay, *Yoendrys Gomez (IL Sean Boyle)

AA: *Zach Messinger, Bailey Dees, *Trystan Vrieling, Blaine Abeyta, *Brock Selvidge (IL *Chase Hampton)

high A: Sebastian Keane, *Kyle Carr, Cam Schlittler, Jackson Fristoe, Yorlin Calderon, Joel Valdez (IL *Brendan Beck)

low A: Cade Smith, Ryan Harvey, Josh Grosz, Gabriel Barbosa, *Luis Serna, Osiel Rodriguez (IL *Justin Lange)



Selvidge and Vrieling in AA is exciting, Selvidge is a fast mover, still 21, and Vrieling was a 3rd round pick in 2022 that barely pitched anywhere last year because of injuries.
 

jon abbey

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What a draft NY seems to have had, these are their top 3 picks:

1 (25) Spencer Jones. We all know him, a gigantic CF currently at AA who impressed in the spring and who is as fast and strong combined as anyone in the sport, but this post is for the pitchers below.

2 (61) Drew Thorpe. After being drafted in summer 2022, NY worked with him in their lab and he ended up as the 2023 MiLB Pitcher of the Year (for all of baseball) in 2023 before being dealt as the biggest prospect in the Soto rental deal. He then was moved to CHW as the main chip in the Cease (2 years of control) deal and is currently crushing in AA, 18 10 1 1 4 18.

3 (100) Trystan Vrieling. However will NY be able to replace Thorpe? Oh, right, Vrieling sat out all of 2022 which means he just started his professional career this year. First of all, he started in AA, which none of the NY beat writers could ever remember happening before. He had his third start tonight and as good as Thorpe's numbers this year have been (almost impossible to better), Vrieling has managed:

Thorpe: 18 10 1 1 4 18
Vrieling 18.2 5 1 1 6 18

Also they were born just one day apart in October 2000.

https://www.milb.com/player/drew-thorpe-689672

https://www.milb.com/player/trystan-vrieling-801639

Also Chase Hampton is currently sidelined but was a 6th round pick in 2022 and is already a consensus top 100 MLB prospect.
 

jon abbey

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So NY was very thin in rotation depth this offseason after dealing King. Thorpe and Fitts. But the first month of the minor league season has shown that they have already replenished that high system depth.

What I'm looking at here is guys who are succeeding at AA or AAA and who are legit rotation candidates. As I said NY traded King, Thorpe and Fitts plus Chase Hampton has yet to pitch this year. They added Stroman to replace King, so they were down three AA or AAA genuine SP candidates, and so far this year, these guys have emerged:

Luis Gil: 5 starts in MLB so far, a 4.01 ERA and 35 Ks in 24.2 IP. He will likely be bumped to the bullpen when Cole is back, but he has shown that he can be a 5 inning guy at least, and he was a giant question mark coming into the spring after having not pitched much in the last few years.

Will Warren: I am not actually counting him in this as he was great in AAA at the end of last year and has been back to being great there again this year after a poor 1st start in arctic conditions in Buffalo. In his four starts since then, he has a 2.14 ERA, 21 11 6 5 6 26, just a .153 BAA. He is ready for his shot whenever.

Cody Poteet: Poteet is not a prospect, he turns 30 in July. NY signed him in January, he is coming off multiple years of arm trouble, but seems to be back, one great start in one chance in MLB and a sub-2 ERA in AAA. He is NY's 6th man currently (in the AAA rotation) and they signed him very cheaply in January, nice score Cashman.

Brock Selvidge: Selvidge is a prospect, NY's 3rd round pick in 2021 out of high school. He pitched in low A and high A last year, got the start in NY's all-prospects game this spring and pitched better than any other SP prospect for any team. He started this year in AA and has been quite good through 4 starts with a 1.71 ERA, including a 7 2 0 0 0 11 gem tonight. He is still 21, 22 in August.

Trystan Vrieling: Vrieling is also a prospect, he was NY's 3rd round pick in 2022 and hadn't pitched professionally before this year. NY started him in AA which no one can remember them ever doing before, and he has met the challenge, 24 12 6 5 6 25 in his first 4 starts combined, a 1.88 ERA and a ,145 BAA.

So the summary, NY traded Thorpe and Fitts plus Hampton is in limbo (there is almost never much info about minor league injuries, we mostly just know he has yet to pitch). Taking their place have been Gil, Poteet, Selvidge and Vrieling, so overall NY's SP depth has been replenished and more very quickly.
 

jon abbey

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With the emergence of Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil so far, NY has a bunch of rotation spots filled for a long time if guys keep performing:

Cole: through 2028, probably through 2029 after he opts out this year and a year is added per his contract.
Rodon: through 2028
Schmidt: through 2027
Gil: through 2028

Stroman's deal is either through 2025 or 2026, player option for 2026 if Stroman has 140 innings this year. Cortes Jr. is through 2025, I could see Cashman trading him at the deadline or after the season.
 

Jace II

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This is a combined-with-bullpen stat, but as of today the Yankees have allowed the least runs per game in MLB (3.31! last year the least R/G allowed leaguewide was 4.0, and through today this year second place is the Royals at 3.49). The Braves have allowed 4 fewer runs, but have somehow played 5 fewer games than NYY.

Obviously helps to check this stat after they allowed 1 run combined in the last 3 games.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Pretty amazing. Rodon is a different person from last year. I love the chemistry of this team too. Our pitchers are all dogs with a bone when they're out there.
 

jon abbey

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NY with essentially a perfect turn through the rotation:

6 3 0 0 2 3
6 6 1 1 0 6
6 2 0 0 3 2
8 3 0 0 0 8
7 5 1 0 1 6

Totals:

33 19 2 1 6 25, a 0.27 ERA.
 

jon abbey

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The rotation has kept that going for another week, truly remarkable, but that is for another post.

This one is because I came across the list of the SPs that NY chose to protect over Garrett Whitllock in the 2020 rule 5 draft. I don't think leaving Whitlock unprotected was a mistake given his injury history, and given that he didn't blossom until learning a new pitch the next spring with BOS, but still worth looking back.

Deivi Garcia
Clarke Schmidt
Albert Abreu
Luis Medina
Luis Gil
Miguel Yajure
Alexander Vizcaino
Roansy Contreras
Yoendrys Gomez

Schmidt and Gil are both in NY's rotation and looking great.

Yajure and Contreras got traded for Taillon, Vizcaino got traded for Rizzo, Medina got traded for Montas.

Deivi Garcia made it to the Yankees at 21 and looked very promising, but has flamed out, now on the White Sox AAA team.

Albert Abreu never fulfilled his promise and is currently pitching in Japan.

And Yoendrys Gomez is still hanging around the NY organization, he was promoted yesterday and pitched a scoreless inning last night to end a 8-0 game, striking out the side.
 

jon abbey

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NY with essentially a perfect turn through the rotation:

6 3 0 0 2 3
6 6 1 1 0 6
6 2 0 0 3 2
8 3 0 0 0 8
7 5 1 0 1 6

Totals:

33 19 2 1 6 25, a 0.27 ERA.
Going to update this, it is 13 games now:

6 3 0 0 2 3
6 6 1 1 0 6
6 2 0 0 3 2
8 3 0 0 0 8
7 5 1 0 1 6
6 5 1 1 1 14
6 4 2 2 2 6
7.1 3 1 1 1 6
5 4 2 2 2 6
5 3 0 0 3 6
6.1 1 0 0 2 8
6 3 0 0 3 2
6 3 0 0 1 5

Totals, 7 ERs in 13 starts, 80.2 innings. a 0.78 ERA!!!

80.2 47 8 7 21 78
 

jon abbey

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NY gets Matt Sauer back from KC, taken in last year’s rule 5 but unable to hold down a bullpen spot for them. He’s been assigned to Scranton, welcome back Matt.
 

jon abbey

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NY doesn't have an obvious replacement for Schmidt right now:

Cole is up to about 40 pitches against batters, but still a few weeks away.

Poteet is on the IL in AAA.

Will Warren is healthy (not on the 40 man, but that is easy) but he has been absolutely dreadful in recent weeks. He has a 15.88 ERA in 4 starts in May in AAA!!! 30 ERs allowed in 17 innings, and it's still possible he gets the call if Poteet is genuinely hurt.
 

jon abbey

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No throwing for Schmidt for 4-6 weeks.

Yoendrys Gomez is another possibility although he is more of a four inning guy currently. He is pitching in AAA right now (2 scoreless innings so far) but could come up after NY comes home from this trip and start next time around the rotation.
 

jon abbey

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Oh, never mind, Boone just said Poteet will start on Saturday. Welcome back, Cody!
 

jon abbey

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With Schmidt out for probably two months, let's do a reset of the MLB-applicable pecking order.

Guys in parentheses are on the IL, guys with asterisks are not on the 40 man yet.

(Cole) (Probably 3-4 weeks away, likely to have his first minor league rehab game soon)
Rodon
Gil
Stroman
(Schmidt) (Shut down for 4-6 weeks)
Cortes Jr.
Poteet (Was on the AAA IL with a blister but is reportedly fine and starting tomorrow in SF. His one MLB start earlier this year was superb, 6 innings/1 ER.)

Yoendrys Gómez (He was originally added to NY's 40 man in 2020 and has struggled to stay healthy. He has been healthy all of 2024 and has very slowly been ramping up pitch counts, last night he pitched 5 hitless in AAA on 65 pitches. He is the 6th guy at this moment, I think.)
(Clayton Beeter) (don't know the issue here, don't think it's serious but he is on the IL)
(JT Brubaker) (Established MLB starter for PIT who NY traded for a couple months ago, knowing he was still coming back from TJS. He is expected back around the ASB)
*Will Warren (He was almost NY's 5th starter out of spring training this year before Gil was just too good to deny. Now he is seriously struggling in AAA the last few weeks, 31 ERs allowed in his last four games is very yikes.)
 

BaseballJones

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They can hang in there until Cole returns. He'll be a pretty substantial addition to their rotation.
 

jon abbey

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Assuming Stroman actually starts tonight, that means even though Cole has been out all season so far, NY's 2-6 guys have started 58 of their first 59 games. The only one they didn't was because of a rainout/doubleheader, so Poteet came up and got that one.

That is a big reason they are 20 games over .500 currently, and it doesn't hurt that Gil is pitching at least as well as Cole did last year (when he won the Cy Young).