Beautiful. Garden needs to play JFK speeches every breakAlso, time to get revenge for JFK.
Beautiful. Garden needs to play JFK speeches every breakAlso, time to get revenge for JFK.
The Cs often play better on the road.. and haven’t lost yet in these playoffs away. This team has barely lost two in a row all year.. losing 4 out of 7 just seems unlikely.Home court isn't what it used to be, but picking Celtics in 6 means picking the Celtics to win game 6 in Dallas. Generally speaking, it makes more sense to pick Celtics in 5 or 7 than 6.
There is a reason most knowledgable people tend to pick the home team to win in 5 if they have a legit advantage (I think the Celtics do in this case, though reasonable minds can differ).
On the other hand he was -21.4 this year against Boston and -23.5 last. His and Kyrie’s defense is Boston’s secret weapon.Luka put up 34/12/9 in his last 4 against Boston. Let's call it a wash
I hear that but this team kicks ass on the road and is kind of meh at home in the playoffs. I don’t think home court matters much in this matchup. The Mavs just took 3 road games against the Wolves and the Celtics have been racking up road wins for a few years now.Home court isn't what it used to be, but picking Celtics in 6 means picking the Celtics to win game 6 in Dallas. Generally speaking, it makes more sense to pick Celtics in 5 or 7 than 6.
There is a reason most knowledgable people tend to pick the home team to win in 5 if they have a legit advantage (I think the Celtics do in this case, though reasonable minds can differ).
That's fair, but unless you think home court is completely meaningless, I wouldn't pick the Celtics to win in 6. It's obviously possible, but 5 or 7 is more likely.I hear that but this team kicks ass on the road and is kind of meh at home in the playoffs. I don’t think home court matters much in this matchup. The Mavs just took 3 road games against the Wolves and the Celtics have been racking up road wins for a few years now.
Celtics in 5 feels like a very aggressive prediction, especially with KP’s uncertain status. Of course, they’re absolutely capable of winning in 5 but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Yeah, I get the rationale, I just think that it will be hard for the Celtics to ice these guys in 5 without a fully operational KP. But believe me, if they are able to hold serve in the first 2 games, 5 becomes the most logical end point. But the skeptic in me predicts a split in Boston and long series.That's fair, but unless you think home court is completely meaningless, I wouldn't pick the Celtics to win in 6. It's obviously possible, but 5 or 7 is more likely.
Similarly, I wouldn't pick the Mavs to win in 5 or 7. If you like the Mavs in this series, winning in 6 is most likely. They arent going to be the favorites to win in game 5 or game 7 on the road.
Captain Laddie posted the odds earlier. The Celtics most likely winning outcome is 4-1 and the Mavs most likely winning outcome is 4-2. This isn't an accident. Picking the Celtics in 5 isn't "aggressive", it's just mathematically the most likely way they will win.
I thought we frowned upon small sample size +/- in this placeOn the other hand he was -21.4 this year against Boston and -23.5 last. His and Kyrie’s defense is Boston’s secret weapon.
Honestly without thinking too much they’re sorta effed. Especially if KP is back. Holy god you have five three point shooters who can all pick and roll or pick and pop and several of them can still post up against bigger defenders. Efff. What do you do if you’re Dallas.Where do they put him, honest question? Does he try and cover Jaylen?
Everyone on Boston can shoot, so what choice does he really have?There are no two buts about it, Luka can guard traditional posts. His strength and size and competitiveness is a problem. Get him on the perimeter and as Magic once said, now we talking.
Idk other than they play zone a lotEveryone on Boston can shoot, so what choice does he really have?
Like they hide him. He cannot be on the perimeter much. I saw the twolves blow by him at will out there but then they ran into problems . Do I finish against big help? Or kick to weak three point shooters?Idk other than they play zone a lot
Of course, all respect to the Mavs. And, it wouldn't be surprising if they find a way to win.The Mavs steamrolled three very good teams in a fairly stacked western conference. They are playing great basketball. I get that the C's handled them pretty easily in the regular season and the C's are probably the worst matchup for them, because they have exactly the type of personnel that can contain Luka and Kyrie. But gotta respect the degree of difficulty in what the Mavs have already accomplished - just coming out of the western conference this year is basically as hard as winning the NBA championship in a normal year. So for that reason, I couldn't pick Cs in 4 or 5. I think it goes 6.
I mean you were the one using the four game sample size, so it's all noise. But he's still a biblically shitty defender and Boston will hunt him on that end of the floor.I thought we frowned upon small sample size +/- in this place
Thanks. I hate it.
If you’re talking the last several years then yes they’ve been meh at home, but their 6-2 recordI hear that but this team kicks ass on the road and is kind of meh at home in the playoffs. I don’t think home court matters much in this matchup. The Mavs just took 3 road games against the Wolves and the Celtics have been racking up road wins for a few years now.
Celtics in 5 feels like a very aggressive prediction, especially with KP’s uncertain status. Of course, they’re absolutely capable of winning in 5 but I wouldn’t bet on it.
It was 2 seasons ago (Celtics swept the season series last year and again this year). The first time was in Dallas, and worth noting the Celtics starting 5 for that game, during a period that the Celtics were struggling to stay above 0.500:I think the Celtics will win comfortably when they win (not saying blowouts, but 8-12 range leading most of the game) and the Mavs will win some nail biters. What makes me nervous is that in a single possession, iso type end of game situation, Dallas is better. Was it last season that Luka beat us twice on end of game contested three pointers? He’s just really good at that kind of stuff. So, the Celtics need to make sure they aren’t in that situation. So, expect the Mavs to win a game or two from that type of circumstance. Maybe they pick up a game or two from an unreal Luka or Kyrie game or a Tatum/Brown off night.
Whoever draws Luka we should be exploiting that matchup to see how healthy he really is. Make him work his ass off on defense vLuka on White would be amazing for the Celtics.
I'm also in the "Celtics in 6" crowd.Dallas has beaten 3 very good teams to get to the Finals, including the teams with the 4th best (OKC) and best (T'Wolves) regular season defensive ratings. So, while I agree that neither Luka nor Kyrie are good defenders, it hasn't hurt them so far. Their opponents have certainly geared up to stop Doncic but did not come close to succeeding.
So I'm not willing to bet on the Celtics in 4 or 5. And no-way, no-how do I want to see a Game 7 against this crew, where the shooting variance demons could easily derail the Celtics title hopes. And I'll be legit concerned if KP is unable to come back and be effective in at least limited game action. So I'm voting for Celtics in 6, and definitely expect Dallas to really put rational fear into this board (as opposed to the irrational fear of the Miami Heat). And will both be massively disappointed but yet not totally shocked if Dallas were to pull this off.
Disagree. The key is Jrue/Brown guarding Luka 1 on 1. If he can do that it will limit Luka as a passer, which is when he is really lethal. Obviously you are going to need help but this to me is the main match-up.The key to this series is shutting down Kyrie. Luka is going get his. If you can really limit Kyrie to pretty much under 20 a game as well as his play making ability it will turn Luka into his previous version which was a great stat padder on an average team.
I had a morbid fantasy about turning on G1 of the Finals and magically finding Kyrie back on Boston and KP on Dallas— would I be able to summon a rooting interest in the Celtics?Thanks. I hate it.
I wish we could whitewash him out of Celtics history.
Luka had a triple double of 37 points 12 rebounds 11 assists in his last game against Boston and the Celtics won by 28 points. They limited Kyrie to 19 points and under 40% from the field. The fact is you don’t want Dallas doing what they did last night with Luka and Kyrie. It’s a lot easier for Luka to score points than it is for Kyrie IMO.Disagree. The key is Jrue guarding Luka 1 on 1. If he can do that it will limit Luka as a passer, which is when he is really lethal.
Luka can’t close out.. he’s not fast enough.. so that’s why he cheats into the lane to try and stop drives. I don’t think Dallas can just change their D in a week.Honestly without thinking too much they’re sorta effed. Especially if KP is back. Holy god you have five three point shooters who can all pick and roll or pick and pop and several of them can still post up against bigger defenders. Efff. What do you do if you’re Dallas.
Now I’ll come in with caveats, I’ve seen Dallas play like maybe 9 games. In most I saw they cannot guard the corner three. Minn had a tremendous amount of open looks in the corner but only off of one action which is insanely bad defense unless you are guarding Minnesota (this is a current day no no). bUT that’s probably a choice they’ve made and they would change vs the Celtics.
So if Dallas is going to defend differently against the Celtics it probably starts with zone and I wonder if they try to mimic the Heat zone against them. This would work really well for them if KP is out.
Your logic generally makes sense but BOS has been playing better on the road than at home. I could definitely see BOS splitting first four and then winning two straight. And I picked BOS in 6.That's fair, but unless you think home court is completely meaningless, I wouldn't pick the Celtics to win in 6. It's obviously possible, but 5 or 7 is more likely.
Similarly, I wouldn't pick the Mavs to win in 5 or 7. If you like the Mavs in this series, winning in 6 is most likely. They arent going to be the favorites to win in game 5 or game 7 on the road.
Captain Laddie posted the odds earlier. The Celtics most likely winning outcome is 4-1 and the Mavs most likely winning outcome is 4-2. This isn't an accident. Picking the Celtics in 5 isn't "aggressive", it's just mathematically the most likely way they will win.
Not sure that I would call the LAC series - without Kawhi - "steamrolled". I only watched a couple of games of that series but from what I saw, DAL struggled at times guarding PG and Harden, and JT/JB are better than those two plus have more help around them.The Mavs steamrolled three very good teams in a fairly stacked western conference. They are playing great basketball. I get that the C's handled them pretty easily in the regular season and the C's are probably the worst matchup for them, because they have exactly the type of personnel that can contain Luka and Kyrie. But gotta respect the degree of difficulty in what the Mavs have already accomplished - just coming out of the western conference this year is basically as hard as winning the NBA championship in a normal year. So for that reason, I couldn't pick Cs in 4 or 5. I think it goes 6.
In that same span of time - last 33 games, 2/4 to end of season - the Celtics were 27-6. Consecutive runs of 11 W, 2 L, 9 W, 2 L, 5 W, 2 L, 2 W.Team point differential (s)ince Feb 5th, when Mavs began their 24-9 run to close the regular season:
Everyone on BOS will get a chance guarding Luka. They will switch every screen and in doing so, will try to keep Luka in front of them. Doing that will limit the lobs and the open corner 3Ps for Washington and Jones Jr.Disagree. The key is Jrue/Brown guarding Luka 1 on 1. If he can do that it will limit Luka as a passer, which is when he is really lethal. Obviously you are going to need help but this to me is the main match-up.
This. The fact that Luka is playing some passable defense either in the paint or when he has help on the perimeter does not mean that he's going to be making multiple defensive efforts as the ball moves around the court. In past games, BOS has found a lot of open shots. Don't see how that's changing.Luka can’t close out.. he’s not fast enough.. so that’s why he cheats into the lane to try and stop drives. I don’t think Dallas can just change their D in a week.
Maybe the West wasn't as good as everyone thought. OKC and Minny are good, but not battle tested. Maybe these regular season teams just weren't good postseason squads.The Mavs steamrolled three very good teams in a fairly stacked western conference.
Well, Kyrie and Luka are both going to easily be in the Hall of Fame, and that's more guaranteed HOFers than Boston has (Tatum will get there, and I hope Brown will, but I'm not sure about that). One HOF and a better supporting cast often loses to two HOFers. Especially if (as national media would have you believe) the best of the three sure-fire HOFers in the series is on Dallas.Feels like with a semi healthy KP, this series should be Celtics in 5.
I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again. But I think we are genuinely better than the Mavs.
Kyrie and Fat Luka beating us with a bunch of kind of mediocre role players would be pretty devastating.
I wasn’t that impressed with their path. The Clippers are a notorious postseason failure and that was predictable no matter if Leonard was healthy or not. Both OKC and Minnesota are in the knocking stage which is what NBA teams notoriously have to go through before they can become champions.Maybe the West wasn't as good as everyone thought. OKC and Minny are good, but not battle tested. Maybe these regular season teams just weren't good postseason squads.
This is mostly me wishcasting but there is a non-zero chance Weird Kyrie returns and decides that it’s simply JB and JT’s time and his PC after the series will heavily suggest that he is responsible for preparing them to be champions.I should mention that I think Boston/the fans breaking Kyrie mentally and Boston winning in 5 is on the table. He was terrible in that March game.
IIRC, Al's passing really shredded the Miami zone. Major difference from last few years is that everyone he's passing to is a 3 point threat and many are driving threats too. It's different than KP being a threat to turn around and take free throw line jumpers, but either way we now have multiple solutions to that problem.Honestly without thinking too much they’re sorta effed. Especially if KP is back. Holy god you have five three point shooters who can all pick and roll or pick and pop and several of them can still post up against bigger defenders. Efff. What do you do if you’re Dallas.
Now I’ll come in with caveats, I’ve seen Dallas play like maybe 9 games. In most I saw they cannot guard the corner three. Minn had a tremendous amount of open looks in the corner but only off of one action which is insanely bad defense unless you are guarding Minnesota (this is a current day no no). bUT that’s probably a choice they’ve made and they would change vs the Celtics.
So if Dallas is going to defend differently against the Celtics it probably starts with zone and I wonder if they try to mimic the Heat zone against them. This would work really well for them if KP is out.