so the organization wants him to play 1b on a shitty team for no reason, but he wants to stay healthy and hit home runs? Maybe Papi should be the manager.HomeRunBaker said:
Moving Hanley to 1B
- Thread starter OCD SS
- Start date
Come on - you know I'm not talking about the past few years of Ortiz. They didn't want to sit him against lefties this year and it has probably cost them. Particularly late in games against a LOOGY. You can't bench an entrenched hitter in specific situations and that's my issue with having a lot of money tied up there. And it's going to be the same thing with Ramirez because of his paycheck.smastroyin said:
Red(s)HawksFan said:
That's what I'm getting at. It's just speculation. 42 games after the shoulder injury could be totally arbitrary as could another 22 games after the hand injury.
I could counter with the fact that his ISO is right at his career norm, and his hard hit ball percentage is the same as it was last year. Or that his fastball runs above average are the same as last year, but is way down on curveballs and changeups which wouldn't seem to coincide with him losing bat speed from injury. I have no idea either, but my own opinion is that he is just being pitched better after terrorizing the league.
Has any of the Boston press asked Hanley about playing 1st or 3rd? I don`t get NESN so maybe I`ve missed it. Lots of questions seem to never get asked by them. Especially in game decision by Farrell. Lots of discussions on this board seem pointless because it`s a simple question the press should be asking. This thread goes back and forth, with good points from each side.
As far as the Ortiz decline question goes, he certainly has been a good hitter for us this year, but he is definitely hitting a couple fewer singles/doubles/whatever, and showing a slight drop in walk rate, though K rates are pretty stable over the last three years, and if his BABIP is falling, then that means he is getting fewer base hits on those balls in play. Looking at that three-year trend, if he loses another 20 points of wRC+ then we have a DH who is a below average offensive player.
BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
2013 0.321 0.309 0.395 0.564 0.400 152
2014 0.256 0.263 0.355 0.517 0.369 135
2015 0.236 0.243 0.329 0.470 0.340 114
As for projections of hit types:
1B 2B
2013 90 38
2014 74 27
2015 45 17
Ortiz had 600 and 602 PAs in 2013/14, and so we will pace to that. He has had 386 this year, which means that he is 64% of the way to that mark (if you think he will blow past that mark you can argue that, but he hasn't had over 606 since 2009 or over 627 since 2007). That puts him on pace for 70 singles and 26 doubles, slight declines compared to the previous few years.
I'm not saying that he is toast now, or is guaranteed to be next year, but it isn't logical to attack people who do feel that way, the trend is in their favor regardless of whether Ortiz gets to 500 HRs this year or not. He isn't falling off a cliff, but he is sliding steadily down a slope, and Hanley might be a better DH as soon as next year, depending on who replaces him in the OF.
edit: formatting
BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
2013 0.321 0.309 0.395 0.564 0.400 152
2014 0.256 0.263 0.355 0.517 0.369 135
2015 0.236 0.243 0.329 0.470 0.340 114
As for projections of hit types:
1B 2B
2013 90 38
2014 74 27
2015 45 17
Ortiz had 600 and 602 PAs in 2013/14, and so we will pace to that. He has had 386 this year, which means that he is 64% of the way to that mark (if you think he will blow past that mark you can argue that, but he hasn't had over 606 since 2009 or over 627 since 2007). That puts him on pace for 70 singles and 26 doubles, slight declines compared to the previous few years.
I'm not saying that he is toast now, or is guaranteed to be next year, but it isn't logical to attack people who do feel that way, the trend is in their favor regardless of whether Ortiz gets to 500 HRs this year or not. He isn't falling off a cliff, but he is sliding steadily down a slope, and Hanley might be a better DH as soon as next year, depending on who replaces him in the OF.
edit: formatting
smastroyin said:
WAR also doesn't fully compensate for the DHing penalty. Hitting while not playing the field is not easy, just like pinch hitting isn't easy. Not all players are suited to DHing, and many don't want to DH since it lowers their value in free agency or for personal reasons. Manny was a much worse fielder in LF than Ortiz was at 1b, but DHing was something that kept David healthy, while Manny notably disliked doing it even in the pre-Ortiz years. Like smas says, you have to fill out the lineup card, and if there's a player who is a good fit for DH and is willing to do it full-time, it keeps you from forcing players who aren't a good fit for the position into DHing.
pokey_reese said:
David Ortiz is struggling against LHP and is easily victimized by the shift and is probably too old to adjust his way out of that and of course age is going to make him worse year over year. He's still hitting at a higher level against RHP than really anyone else in the Red Sox organization can be expected to in 2016 and that represents about 75% of plate appearances. Now, he may not repeat that performance either, but I'm not going to go placing bets on anyone to shoot past him.
And my "attack" is on people who "hate the full time DH" (a strategy which has been a problem for the Red Sox for maybe 4 months out of Ortiz's career) and "hate David Ortiz" but maybe you haven't been reading the same posts I have.
The harsh reality of 2016 is that the Red Sox largely have the team that they have signed. There is no magic wand that gets them all these magic players you guys seem to think will appear out of the ether and makes the guys you want to disappear to disappear. Wishing that David Ortiz will retire this year so that you can re-arrange a few deck chairs doesn't really solve the larger problems. The first problem of roster construction is finding good ballplayers. Wishing away good ballplayers while looking for ideal solutions is not a road to success.
Even looking at the free agent class, I mean I guess Alex Gordon if he decides not to exercise his option would be a guy you could sign that would make it worth ditching Ortiz (and moving Hanley to full time DH). Outside of that you are probably just as well off keeping Ortiz and if he falls off a cliff you DFA him and call up AAA guys and move Hanley then. I guess Chris Davis could be a target but at the end of the day even given the age differences, I don't think the gap between the two of them is large enough to justify the contract Davis will likely get, especially when there are so many other holes.
I mean whatever. My basic point is this, a team that has a lot of holes doesn't need to create more without a really solid plan of how the the deck chair arrangement is going to shift the boat away from the iceberg. I feel like most of the people here only think about the deck chair.
Yes they have. And it has been quoted in this thread.keninten said:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/90561-moving-hanley-to-1b/#entry6159575
Hanleys best position is DH, or perhaps 3B. However, both these positions are blocked. I don't see him having the agility to play 1B, and he would probably be lousy at 3B as well.
He has an impact bat if the shoulder is healthy, as such he is a tradeable commodity. Papi is going nowhere, and Pablos contract is not very tradeable since he is not a great hitter or fielder. They would have to eat some salary for Hanleys deal of course, like they did with Edgar Renteria, and his market is probably 100% AL teams who can use him at DH.
As for 1B going forward, nothing much out there except Chris Davis next year, so they probably need to acquire a 1Bman via trade since I doubt they go after Davis. Maybe if Napoli has a strong finish they might get him on a team friendly 1 yr deal where he can hope for another shot at a contract year. They would need a platoon option though in case he repeats this years futility against RHP'ers. However, I don't see him finishing strong so this is probably not going to be a consideration
He has an impact bat if the shoulder is healthy, as such he is a tradeable commodity. Papi is going nowhere, and Pablos contract is not very tradeable since he is not a great hitter or fielder. They would have to eat some salary for Hanleys deal of course, like they did with Edgar Renteria, and his market is probably 100% AL teams who can use him at DH.
As for 1B going forward, nothing much out there except Chris Davis next year, so they probably need to acquire a 1Bman via trade since I doubt they go after Davis. Maybe if Napoli has a strong finish they might get him on a team friendly 1 yr deal where he can hope for another shot at a contract year. They would need a platoon option though in case he repeats this years futility against RHP'ers. However, I don't see him finishing strong so this is probably not going to be a consideration