Jonah Keri on baseball's worst contracts

The Gray Eagle

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No Sox listed in the top 10 nor in the dishonorable mention. So we're in good shape to compete for the coveted Payroll Efficiency Trophy for this year, sweet!
 
I liked this comment from an AL exec on the Indians getting dishonorable mentions for Swisher and Bourn: “These might not seem like killers, but how much better off are the Indians the next two years with their young core and [nearly] $30 million a year to supplement what they currently have on the free-agent market? Imagine the current Indians team with Andrew Miller and James Shields. It sucks to be a small-market team sometimes.”
 
So if they didn't sign those two big money free agents, they could've used the money to go out and sign two other big money free agents. Which would definitely work out so much better for some reason.
 
I mean obviously Shields and Miller would be really likely to improve Cleveland in 2015, but in order for them to sign with Cleveland, they would have had to beat the Yankees offer for Miller (or maybe even go over $40 million for a setup reliever) and probably give Shields five years at big money (if even that much that would get him to sign.) Since they are pitchers, it wouldn't be surprising at all to see those contracts on the 2016 or 2017 worst contracts list.
 
At the moment a team signs a player, the team obviously thinks the player is going to be good and improve them for at least a few years. No team hands out a big contract thinking "This probably won't work out and could look really dumb in a couple years." Even though many big contracts end up like that.
 
Most teams talk about how signing free agents to long term big money deals is inefficient, risky and not a good way to go, but they keep doing it. Some of them do work out, but many end up nightmares. It's interesting to compare the mindset at the moment the shiny new toy is purchased against how everything looks just a couple years later. (That Sandoval deal... well we'll see.)
 
It's not the end of the world to have a contract on this list. But to have a couple of them, like the Tigers and Rangers and Angels, wow.
 
 

vadertime

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I would've had Craig in the .'Dishonorable Mentions' part.  Still owed $26 million and hasn't been the same since the injury.
 

Bigpupp

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You might be able to make an argument for Craig if he were on a small market team, but not for the Red Sox. His contract only costs $6.2 million against the salary cap and he would only have to be worth about 1 win to break even. Even if he doesn't, 6.2 million isn't going to stop the Red Sox from doing anything at all.
 

AbbyNoho

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Looking at that list of aging superstars who are no longer worth their money just makes me even more amazed by David Ortiz. How fucking lucky were we on January 22, 2003? All the hand-wringing about Ortiz talking about his contracts through the years were absolutely worth it.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Craig isn't owed enough in total or per annum to make Keri's list.  Mauer is mentioned by one of his sources but not named.  I can tell you many Twins fans believe he should be on the list.  He hasn't stayed healthy, he hits for no power, his Ks are on the rise, and his BA is faltering .  Given its length, his deal looks worse right now than Teixeira's.
 

Plympton91

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
Boston isn't paying anything on Crawford. They sent over ~$12M on Gonzo's deal but nothing for CC.

CC probably could have easily made the list or at least honorable mention, but he does only have 3/$62 or so left on it and he managed to put up 2.4 WAR in only 105 games last year. He's settled in as a solid LF albeit an overpriced one, but it's not quite the disaster it looked like two or three years ago. Compare that to 0 WAR in 135 games for Ethier at almost the same price left, with no aspect of the game he is better at than CC.
Over his 204 plate appearances after the all-star break last season, Crawford put up a slash line of .333/.374/.462 with 13/4 SB/CS, and FanGraphs has his average UZR since joining the Dodgers somewhere around 11. I had been wondering why the Dodgers subsidized Kemp so much and yet seemed to not have aggressively marketed a subsidized Crawford (I thought the Orioles might be a good fit, they've been linked to Either). Those numbers make that much less of a mystery to me.
 

EricFeczko

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Plympton91 said:
Over his 204 plate appearances after the all-star break last season, Crawford put up a slash line of .333/.374/.462 with 13/4 SB/CS, and FanGraphs has his average UZR since joining the Dodgers somewhere around 11. I had been wondering why the Dodgers subsidized Kemp so much and yet seemed to not have aggressively marketed a subsidized Crawford (I thought the Orioles might be a good fit, they've been linked to Either). Those numbers make that much less of a mystery to me.
Completely agree. Crawford has been a 2-3 fWAR player over the past two years even with limited playing time. As everyone else already noted.
 
Then again, I disagree with the verlander pick. I would've swapped him with Andrus.
 

Drek717

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I would say there is some reasonable chance either one of Hanley Ramirez or Pablo Sandoval makes this list in the next few years.  The length of their deals would likely keep them off the list short of full collapse, but there is still some real risk, especially with Sandoval as his bat wouldn't carry him at DH quite like Hanley's would (unless he bounces back to his early career monster seasons).
 

moondog80

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jose melendez said:
I'd like to see the list of huge deals for guys in they're 30s that worked out fine.
If I conveniently set the bar at 5 years, is Adrian Beltre the best such signing ever? Mike Mussina? (Manny was 29 his first year in Boston.)
 

rotundlio

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jose melendez said:
I'd like to see the list of huge deals for guys in they're 30s that worked out fine.
 
 
Fine
 
27, Derek Jeter, 10/$189
29, Manny Ramirez, 8/$160
29, Todd Helton, 9/$142
31, Jason Giambi, 7/$120
 
 
Not fine
 
32, Alex Rodriguez, 10/$275
32, Albert Pujols, 10/$240
29, Mark Teixeira, 8/$180
30, Justin Verlander, 7/$180
28, CC Sabathia, 7/$161
29, Carl Crawford, 7/$142
29, Johan Santana, 6/$138
31, Alfonso Soriano, 8/$136 ?
29, Barry Zito, 7/$126
29, Vernon Wells, 7/$126
32, Ryan Howard, 5/$125
32, Josh Hamilton, 5/$125
31, CC Sabathia, 5/$122
28, Mike Hampton, 8/$121
 
 
Pending
 
33, Miguel Cabrera, 8/$248
31, Robinson Cano, 10/$240
30, Joey Votto, 10/$225
28, Prince Fielder, 9/$214
30, Max Scherzer, 7/$210
28, Joe Mauer, 8/$184
31, Jon Lester, 6/$155
30, Adrian Gonzalez, 7/$154
30, Jacoby Ellsbury, 7/$153
29, Zack Greinke, 6/$147
29, Cole Hamels, 6/$144
30, David Wright, 8/$138
31, Shin-Soo Choo, 7/$130
32, Jayson Werth, 7/$126
30, Matt Holliday, 7/$120
32, Cliff Lee, 5/$120
 
 
Under 30
 
25, Giancarlo Stanton, 13/$325
25, Alex Rodriguez, 10/$252
26, Clayton Kershaw, 7/$215
27, Felix Hernandez, 7/$175
26, Buster Posey, 9/$167
27, Matt Kemp, 8/$160
26, Troy Tulowitzki, 10/$158
25, Masahiro Tanaka, 7/$155
25, Miguel Cabrera, 8/$152
23, Mike Trout, 6/$145
24, Freddie Freeman, 8/$135
27, Matt Cain, 6/$128
26, Elvis Andrus, 8/$120
 
 
 
Phew.
 
Scherzer's losing ticks off the fastball and Cano's statsheet is littered with red flags. Conversely, there's good reason to expect a rebound out of Votto, Wright, particularly Mauer. Tanaka's splitter is his only above average pitch. (The slider's okay and it overachieved.) He threw the split outside the zone 70% of the time and hitters chased more than half. His strike percentage would've been eighth-worst among qualified starters, his walk rate seventh-best! (His line drive rate, second-worst.) Tommy John seems inevitable.
 
Surely you could argue for pages as to what is or isn't "fine."
 

jose melendez

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That's awesome.  Thanks.  What's interesting is that A-Rod initial absurd contract with Texas, really wasn't that bad.  He produced well enough to earn it, if they hadn't been dumb enough to give him a new deal.
 

Orel Miraculous

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You're putting Miguel Cabrera on the "Not Fine" list the year after he slashed .313/.371/.524, hit 25 home runs, and led the league in doubles?  I mean sure, he regressed from "historically great hitter" to merely "one of the best hitters in the league" but I think it's a little early to write off a first ballot HOFer who's played at least 148 games every single year in he's been in the league and can comfortably slide into the DH spot as he ages.  
 

rotundlio

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I said I put him there on philosophical grounds. Maybe that was misguided, but the contract itself doesn't kick in until 2016 and will pay him 32 million when he's 40.
 
A-Rod had 175 wRC+ at 31 with vastly superior defense and baserunning. He'll be due $20 million at age 40—next season. And we've been laughing at that one for a while.
 

Orel Miraculous

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Fair enough. The Miggy and ARod contracts are good parallels as far as their ages and immediate past production are concerned. But Miggy's contract is smaller in years (8 vs. 10--though that's somewhat negated by the fact that it doesn't kick in till next year), and total dollars ($248 vs. $275).  Miggy also plays a much less demanding position and isn't very likely to get suspended for an entire season anytime soon. It could turn into a disaster, but I don't think it's fair to preemptively declared it so. 
 

rotundlio

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...How can you look at that list and want to bet on the guy making the most for longest? I think you're right, though. Fixed
 

Apisith

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The Cliff Lee deal was a good one, IMO. They've gotten over 20 wins from him and he basically only has one year deal to go.
 

rotundlio

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You could be valuing those years at $40 million. They run the risk of paying him $60+ million over the last 40% of the deal for about half a mediocre season; is that fine? Holliday's provided better return on investment. Additionally, CC's first contract contained a you-know-what.
 

Plympton91

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Matt Holiday is going into year 6 on that 7 year contract, and the lowest OPS+ he's produced so far is 126. When you've gotten 5 straight years of well above average production out of any player you've gotten what you paid for. Please don't dWAR me and dWARs, unless you're willing to also espouse the benefits of using runs scored and runs batted in as definitive offensive statistics.
 

cannonball 1729

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EricFeczko said:
Completely agree. Crawford has been a 2-3 fWAR player over the past two years even with limited playing time. As everyone else already noted.
 
Then again, I disagree with the verlander pick. I would've swapped him with Andrus.
 
Andrus has been trending the wrong way, but he has one advantage over Verlander - Andrus is still only 26.  Most hitters have their best season at 27, so there's still hope with him.  A pitcher on the wrong side of 30 with declining velocity and whose best pitch was his blazing fastball, on the other hand....there's a bit more reason for pessimism.
 

Wingack

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rotundlio said:
 
 
Fine
 
27, Derek Jeter, 10/$189
29, Manny Ramirez, 8/$160
29, Todd Helton, 9/$142
31, Jason Giambi, 7/$120
 
 
Not fine
 
32, Alex Rodriguez, 10/$275
32, Albert Pujols, 10/$240
29, Mark Teixeira, 8/$180
30, Justin Verlander, 7/$180
28, CC Sabathia, 7/$161
29, Carl Crawford, 7/$142
29, Johan Santana, 6/$138
31, Alfonso Soriano, 8/$136 ?
29, Barry Zito, 7/$126
29, Vernon Wells, 7/$126
32, Ryan Howard, 5/$125
32, Josh Hamilton, 5/$125
31, CC Sabathia, 5/$122
28, Mike Hampton, 8/$121
 
 
Pending
 
33, Miguel Cabrera, 8/$248
31, Robinson Cano, 10/$240
30, Joey Votto, 10/$225
28, Prince Fielder, 9/$214
30, Max Scherzer, 7/$210
28, Joe Mauer, 8/$184
31, Jon Lester, 6/$155
30, Adrian Gonzalez, 7/$154
30, Jacoby Ellsbury, 7/$153
29, Zack Greinke, 6/$147
29, Cole Hamels, 6/$144
30, David Wright, 8/$138
31, Shin-Soo Choo, 7/$130
32, Jayson Werth, 7/$126
30, Matt Holliday, 7/$120
32, Cliff Lee, 5/$120
 
 
Under 30
 
25, Giancarlo Stanton, 13/$325
25, Alex Rodriguez, 10/$252
26, Clayton Kershaw, 7/$215
27, Felix Hernandez, 7/$175
26, Buster Posey, 9/$167
27, Matt Kemp, 8/$160
26, Troy Tulowitzki, 10/$158
25, Masahiro Tanaka, 7/$155
25, Miguel Cabrera, 8/$152
23, Mike Trout, 6/$145
24, Freddie Freeman, 8/$135
27, Matt Cain, 6/$128
26, Elvis Andrus, 8/$120
 
 
 
Phew.
 
Scherzer's losing ticks off the fastball and Cano's statsheet is littered with red flags. Conversely, there's good reason to expect a rebound out of Votto, Wright, particularly Mauer. Tanaka's splitter is his only above average pitch. (The slider's okay and it overachieved.) He threw the split outside the zone 70% of the time and hitters chased more than half. His strike percentage would've been eighth-worst among qualified starters, his walk rate seventh-best! (His line drive rate, second-worst.) Tommy John seems inevitable.
 
Surely you could argue for pages as to what is or isn't "fine."
 
 
You forgot to put Mussina on your fine list. 
 
That Mauer contract is pretty rough, for someone who is now a singles hitting first basemen.