Yeah, this is kind of where I am. Of course, he was also the main reason they were even in the game but 7-14 from the line is just awful. Honestly anything less than 9-14 is terrible (9-14 is obviously bad)
Jaylen Brown: Will he be enough in Year 8?
- Thread starter MyDaughterLovesTomGordon
- Start date
I always love this thread after a Celtics loss where Jaylen almost carried the other eight guys to victory.
Joe was too busy using Tillman in the non-Jokic minutes, which I couldn't not understand at the time and still don't understand today (especially when he was sharing the court with Al against a small Denver lineup).
Agreed.
Last night was the only time (other that CLE Q4 experiment) where Joe had me scratching my head with the rotations.
I'd get Tillman out there on Joker more and make sure KP is on the floor when Joker is off.
Not winning those Joker off-the-court minutes in the 1st half dug a hole
He was really good on Murray to my eye so you'd lose that. I'd give pretty much anything a try on Jokic though.
Those easy buckets by Gordon were far more egregious mistakes by Tatum than JT's missing a wide open corner 3 late. Some of those were preventable baskets.
is this the weird thing where we agree Joe should experiment in the regular season but when he actually experiments we go wtf was he thinking?
Experiments that succeed are brave and good and just. Experiments that fail are stupid and dumb and stupid.
I'm not sure there has been much WTF was Joe thinking or said boo about his rotations/experiments all year.
Mostly trying to decipher Joe's 2 BIGz strategy or Tillman's use with Joker out.
@PedroKsBambino & I were discussing how Joe may approach defending the best player in the NBA.
Just to add context, OKC is currently second in the league with a +7.7 net rating, so with Brown on/Tatum off the C's still play at a level that would lead the league.
Wonder if anyone is getting all up in their feels about Joe with that move...
Also, Jaylen Brown is indeed a badass
Also, Jaylen Brown is indeed a badass
Holy shit. I was at the game and going nuts after the dunk so I missed the JM block attempt. That’s probably one of the funniest sports things I’ve seen in a while.
The local Arizona recap of Mazzula's defense there is awesome. One guy is oddly angry and the other is not matching his energy.
View: https://streamable.com/twlnsf
View: https://streamable.com/twlnsf
And a player who has historically looked on paper like you are just hoping his non-Tatum lineups can hold the line.
Better team around him has helped, and better utilization of his defensive abilities, but his maturity on offense has really grown.
If there was any player for whom I had no fears of a post-contract malaise, it was Jaylen, because the minute he signed the deal it was ridiculed. He had as much personal motivation as a post-max contract player could possibly have. And we’re reaping the benefits.
Well, that's Grayson Allen for you.
Also, I'm glad Jaylen didn't jam a finger there. Any time the basketball makes that hollow thud sound, it's cringeworthy. Most of the time the player is snapping their arm back and waving around their hand.
I think "ridiculed" really overstates the case. My impression of the contemporaneous writings about the deal was that Boston had to do it, and it makes sense to bet on a player who's gotten better every year and is at least at an all-star level, fits really well with Tatum, works hard on both ends of the court, etc. Ridiculed? Are they saying they wouldn't have given Jaylen that deal? Who, exactly, was saying this?
At the time I was saying I wish he hadn't made All-NBA, because I'd have felt a lot better about him making 30% of cap than 35%, in terms of value-for-money and potential tradeability several years down the line. But he did make All-NBA, and I'd be right there with Brad putting pen to paper, even if I felt merely good rather than great about it. The alternative was Jaylen walking as a FA this summer. I guess there were a few people around here who wanted to trade him, in our rage-filled aftermath of the Miami series. But ridiculed? For extending an all-star? C'mon.
I bring this up because I think Jaylen didn't have much of a different motivation situation than most players who sign big deals... and therefore it's entirely to his credit that he has worked so hard to keep improving this year, and hasn't had the money change him one bit. This sort of alternate-history narrative-building diminishes what he's done on the court and for the team.
He took a lot of shit for the way 2023 ended, and maybe deservedly so. I think there was definitely a sense that it was a bit of a "fake" supermax.
Heck, I was making up fake trades for him as soon as it was signed, and I like Jaylen Brown.
Jaylen Brown was a positive asset the day he signed that deal (esp without an option & NTC). Most of the board felt that way. Anti-Celtic NBA Media were the only ones questioning the $300MM+
Jaylen's defense has taken a massive leap this year, so his trade value has only inflated.
Non-destination teams (85% of the rest of the NBA outside of LA/Miami) would pay handsomely for JB's guaranteed years. Championship or not, I'm clinging to it would take a Durant package to land him.
Yeah this was all I meant. Outside our bubble it was “they had no choice” at best and “worst contract in NBA history” at worst.Jaylen Brown was a positive asset the day he signed that deal (esp without an option & NTC). Most of the board felt that way. Anti-Celtic NBA Media were the only ones questioning the $300MM+
Jaylen's defense has taken a massive leap this year, so his trade value has only inflated.
Non-destination teams (85% of the rest of the NBA outside of LA/Miami) would pay handsomely for JB's guaranteed years. Championship or not, I'm clinging to it would take a Durant package to land him.
A lot of this was general anti-Celtics sentiment I’m sure. And pre-Holiday trade before people could marvel at the totality and not-fucking-aroundedness of POBOBS’ offseason.
One thing I've never been able to figure out with JB - why don't advanced stats like him? They all have flaws, but even with something like BPM, he's 6th of 6th of the starters + Al group, and back by quite a bit.
He's a pretty bad passer and is not a guy who lifts teammates by taking advantage of the defensive attention he draws. I think that's a big one. He's also not offering rim protection or plus individual defense. Finally, his three point shooting isn't adding a lot of gravity off the ball.
Jaylen is tied for 31st in the league in EPM, which is my favorite impact stat. Still too low, but he’s a couple of good games from probably being 25th or so. Of course he’s still 4th on the team in that, as well. White and KP are advanced stats superstars though.
His on/off hurts him. Some second guys can have great on/off’s, some don’t. The ones who don’t get dinged by the nerds. This year is different though lol, he’s putting up bigtime net rating numbers, just gets hurt by the Tatum lineups putting up ridiculous numbers.
His on/off hurts him. Some second guys can have great on/off’s, some don’t. The ones who don’t get dinged by the nerds. This year is different though lol, he’s putting up bigtime net rating numbers, just gets hurt by the Tatum lineups putting up ridiculous numbers.
Last edited:
He definitely deserves it imo, once you take out the guys who are ineligible. He's a much more impactful player than some of the other names with big counting stats, like Sabonis.
Isn't this a pretty big problem with these impact stats? We end up using the eye test and raw on/off to tell us that Tatum is insanely awesome, and we use the same (eyetest and +/-) to tell us that Brown is one of the best #2 guys in the league.
The impact stat seems to just be pure noise in this case.
I'd say it's more a problem with how we approach what these statistics are trying to do if we are always ceding to the eye test.
I just use a blend of EPM, DPM, LEBRON, raw stats, on/off, and eye test, not in any particular order. Which is almost everything lol, but I pretty much ignore the rest. Bball reference’s advanced stats in particular are not very good.
I’ve always felt that the better advanced stats bridge the gap between raw stats and eye test.
I’d have Jaylen ranked between 20-25, but won’t argue with anyone who wants to put him anywhere between like 18-30ish?
I’ve always felt that the better advanced stats bridge the gap between raw stats and eye test.
I’d have Jaylen ranked between 20-25, but won’t argue with anyone who wants to put him anywhere between like 18-30ish?
Last edited:
I think the positionless voting this year may hurt him a bit. There are a ton of good guards (but I guess the counter is probably only 1 or 2 centers that will make it). Just a gut, but here is my all-nba teams
Jokic, SGA, Luka, Giannis, Tatum
Kawhi, Durant, Haliburton, Brunson, AD
Lebron, Steph, Ant, Jaylen, Sabonis
That sounds about right, and Jaylen isn't the last guy that group either. He's definitely better than Sabonis, and Ant is close.
Was only sort of listing in order. I am most curious if Tatum makes 1st team. I think he does only because the Celts have been so dominant. I am not sure he has had a better year that Kawhi or Durant
A month ago I would've agreed, but anyone who thinks Tatum has been in a bit of a slump recently should check out their numbers since the ASB:
Tatum: 27/7/6, .608 TS% (Celtics are 9-2)
Kawhi: 22/6/4, .602 TS% (Clippers are 6-7)
Durant: 28/7/4, .572 TS% (Suns are 6-6)
It's impressive what Durant is doing at age 35 (Lebron having the year he's having at 39 is really ruining it for guys like Durant and Curry) and what Kawhi has done with making the Clippers into what looks like a legit contender, but I don't think either guy has enough momentum to get past Tatum's back to back 1st team selections and overpowering team performance. It's telling that neither guy has gotten even a token tweet in the MVP discussion, even while lesser players like Mitchell and Haliburton got a few passing mentions at various points in the year.
Any stat that doesn't show Jaylen as a plus individual defender this season should be taken out back and shot. Hes not offering rim protection because he's constantly picking up the opposing teams best scorers out near the arc, and his opponents have some of the worst FG%s in the NBA at last check.
I really hope our opponents all go full Draymond and dare him to shoot 3s.
Aren't statistics supposed to be objective? How does a statistic measure how well "he takes advantage of the defensive attention he draws?
I think a lot of the reason Jaylens advanced stats lag his teammates is because he's the only Celtic that basically plays every single non-garbage time minute when Tatum is off the court.
I was about to say the same about the defense. Jaylen gets a shitload of undeserved disrespect here about his defense. IMO, he’s a fantastic on ball defender. On par with anyone on the team. His off ball defense still leaves something to be desired but when he’s playing a stud (Curry, Murray) his focus goes up a notch and is better off ball
i wasn't saying the stat says any of those things, these are single number metrics we are talking about. I'm just trying to offer a possible explanation for why the all in one metrics tend to not be so flattering to JB.
Jaylen's on-ball & off-ball defense has lept quite a bit this season. Smart would be proud of him
Yeah, this is the #1 reason his On/Off (+ other metrics) gets skewed.
CJM has done a good job with his pairings to buffer those Tatum off minutes.
Also believe the NBA Media is fair with Jaylen Brown & looks past some of those adv metrics.
Somewhat OT: Dub Nation is hoping young Jonathan Kuminga follows a similar career arc to JB. Very similar physical profiles and games (BB-Ref has JK two inches taller, but to my eye they’re about the same) only JK has been a much better player in his first three seasons than JB was in his, despite entering the league a full year younger. Better scorer (volume and especially efficiency), better FT shooter, better rebounder, better passer, similar on court and on-off numbers.
No guarantee any young player follows any other’s trajectory,; and JB’s steady growth from age 22-27 has been impressive indeed. But we can say JK has similar athletic upside, similar defensive versatility, and shows similar passion/motor on the court, with a similar thirst and knack for getting buckets. I think he has a great chance to pass him, but we shall see. Life will no doubt get harder for JK as Steph and Dray age out and he’s asked to create more as the primary offensive option.
Now … the Ws just gotta find their future Tatum. Paging Moses Moody and Gui Santos?
Back on planet earth, you don’t have to squint nearly that hard to see Podziemski as a budding Derrick White (scrappy, skilled 6-4 combo guard with tough D, a non-stop motor, and an almost shockingly positive impact on the scoreboard) but with a ton of upside given he just turned 21 a couple weeks ago. Maybe White on D with shades of and Dragic and/or Manu on O, just to throw some crafty southpaws into the mix?
Anyway, blah blah. Yes, I am sad Steph just turned 36.
No guarantee any young player follows any other’s trajectory,; and JB’s steady growth from age 22-27 has been impressive indeed. But we can say JK has similar athletic upside, similar defensive versatility, and shows similar passion/motor on the court, with a similar thirst and knack for getting buckets. I think he has a great chance to pass him, but we shall see. Life will no doubt get harder for JK as Steph and Dray age out and he’s asked to create more as the primary offensive option.
Now … the Ws just gotta find their future Tatum. Paging Moses Moody and Gui Santos?
Back on planet earth, you don’t have to squint nearly that hard to see Podziemski as a budding Derrick White (scrappy, skilled 6-4 combo guard with tough D, a non-stop motor, and an almost shockingly positive impact on the scoreboard) but with a ton of upside given he just turned 21 a couple weeks ago. Maybe White on D with shades of and Dragic and/or Manu on O, just to throw some crafty southpaws into the mix?
Anyway, blah blah. Yes, I am sad Steph just turned 36.
More generally, Jaylen is going to replace Jimmy Butler as the new optimistic comp for every wing who fans hope will make a leap after age 25.Somewhat OT: Dub Nation is hoping young Jonathan Kuminga follows a similar career arc to JB. Very similar physical profiles and games (BB-Ref has JK two inches taller, but to my eye they’re about the same) only JK has been a much better player in his first three seasons than JB was in his, despite entering the league a full year younger. Better scorer (volume and especially efficiency), better FT shooter, better rebounder, better passer, similar on court and on-off numbers.
No guarantee any young player follows any other’s trajectory,; and JB’s steady growth from age 22-27 has been impressive indeed. But we can say JK has similar athletic upside, similar defensive versatility, and shows similar passion/motor on the court, with a similar thirst and knack for getting buckets. I think he has a great chance to pass him, but we shall see. Life will no doubt get harder for JK as Steph and Dray age out and he’s asked to create more as the primary offensive option.
Now … the Ws just gotta find their future Tatum. Paging Moses Moody and Gui Santos?
Back on planet earth, you don’t have to squint nearly that hard to see Podziemski as a budding Derrick White (scrappy, skilled 6-4 combo guard with tough D, a non-stop motor, and an almost shockingly positive impact on the scoreboard) but with a ton of upside given he just turned 21 a couple weeks ago. Maybe White on D with shades of and Dragic and/or Manu on O, just to throw some crafty southpaws into the mix?
Anyway, blah blah. Yes, I am sad Steph just turned 36.
It's too bad that Kuminga's last name isn't "Buminga" though, since having the initials "JB" seems to be a critical factor in late-career wing development.
I mean, Kuminga’s making the leap at 21. I just hope he keeps working and adding stuff through his mid 20s the way JB (and JB) did.
If he flames out after a promising start the way, say, Ben Simmons has, I may call him “Buminga.” ;-P
Some post-ASB stats from Brian Barrett (via Celtics Beat) in the reel below. Post-ASB, JB is
https://www.instagram.com/celticsclns/reel/C4k2fFruGOR/
- 2nd in fast break points
- 6th in points in the paint
- 7th in made 2Ps.
- 5th in points per game
- tied for 3rd in +/-
- prior to ASB, Cs were in bottom 5 teams in points in the restricted area and points in the paint. Post-ASB, they were 6th in both categories, primarily because JB leveled up.
https://www.instagram.com/celticsclns/reel/C4k2fFruGOR/
Another dead body for his bone collection.
View: https://twitter.com/NBCSCeltics/status/1773521677730632025
View: https://twitter.com/NBCSCeltics/status/1773521677730632025
First thought: Oh cool, a Jaylen film breakdown video. I definitely got 8 or 10 minutes for that!
Second thought: Holy shit, FORTY NINE MINUTES of this? Christ, maybe I'll go for a walk.
Third thought: Y'know... There's gonna be some long off days in the playoffs, this'll be perfect then.
Fourth thought: ...Oh, who am I kidding. ... yeah this is great stuff about getting the defense in rotation and how we're making the right reads and moving the ball around fast to find advantages. Love it.
Second thought: Holy shit, FORTY NINE MINUTES of this? Christ, maybe I'll go for a walk.
Third thought: Y'know... There's gonna be some long off days in the playoffs, this'll be perfect then.
Fourth thought: ...Oh, who am I kidding. ... yeah this is great stuff about getting the defense in rotation and how we're making the right reads and moving the ball around fast to find advantages. Love it.