Is something up with Phillips Valdez's slider release point?

[Hairps]

I've spent a lot of time thinking about Phillips Valdez lately. For example, the amount of Seam-Shift Wake movement on his changeup is 6th-best in all of MLB (min. 100 pitches)!

But, here's something odd I stumbled across -- his release point on his slider relative to the rest of his repertoire looks to be totally out of whack:

Spoiler: Click to enlarge the chart

Just to summarize what we're seeing there -- the difference in average release point between Valdez's slider (5.28 ft) and the next closest release point, on his changeup, (4.75 ft) is more than half a foot (.53 ft). The difference between his slider release point and that of the pitch with the furthest away verticle release point (his sinker) is .59 ft. It seems a batter could pick that up and tell what's coming based on the difference, no?

It's true that some pitchers might want to mix up their delivery in order to keep hitters off-balance, but the best research I could find suggests pitchers should keep their release point as consistent as possible.

So, I went to the leaderboard of the best sliders in baseball this season to see if there might be something about the pitch that makes it more effective if there is some separation in the release point between it and a guy's other pitches. Here are the results for the guys with the best three sliders so far this year:

Kershaw, Clayton: (-.14 in) meaning the release point on his slider is about*** 14/100ths of an inch below that of the pitch with the furthest away vertical release point (his curveball) -- pretty much the same as far as the eye can tell, I assume
Darvish, Yu: (+.01 in), meaning the release point on his slider is about*** 1/100th of an inch above that of the pitch with the furthest away vertical release point (his sinker) -- pretty much the same as far as the eye can tell, I assume
Musgrove, Joe (-.14 in), meaning the release point on his slider is about*** 14/100ths of an inch below that of the pitch with the furthest away vertical release point (his curveball) -- pretty much the same as far as the eye can tell, I assume
***Please note that for some reason Savant uses 10ths of a foot rather than inches so it's not quite "of an inch".

Nope, that's not it.

So, what's up? And, is a little over half a foot enough of a difference for a batter to notice so that Valdez could be tipping his slider?

 

[effectivelywild]

I've spent a lot of time thinking about Phillips Valdez lately. For example, the amount of Seam-Shift Wake movement on his changeup is 6th-best in all of MLB (min. 100 pitches)!

But, here's something odd I stumbled across -- his release point on his slider relative to the rest of his repertoire looks to be totally out of whack:

Spoiler: Click to enlarge the chart

View attachment 41000

Just to summarize what we're seeing there -- the difference in average release point between Valdez's slider (5.28 ft) and the next closest release point, on his changeup, (4.75 ft) is more than half a foot (.53 ft). The difference between his slider release point and that of the pitch with the furthest away verticle release point (his sinker) is .59 ft. It seems a batter could pick that up and tell what's coming based on the difference, no?

It's true that some pitchers might want to mix up their delivery in order to keep hitters off-balance, but the best research I could find suggests pitchers should keep their release point as consistent as possible.

So, I went to the leaderboard of the best sliders in baseball this season to see if there might be something about the pitch that makes it more effective if there is some separation in the release point between it and a guy's other pitches. Here are the results for the guys with the best three sliders so far this year:

Kershaw, Clayton: (-.14 in) meaning the release point on his slider is about*** 14/100ths of an inch below that of the pitch with the furthest away vertical release point (his curveball) -- pretty much the same as far as the eye can tell, I assume
Darvish, Yu: (+.01 in), meaning the release point on his slider is about*** 1/100th of an inch above that of the pitch with the furthest away vertical release point (his sinker) -- pretty much the same as far as the eye can tell, I assume
Musgrove, Joe (-.14 in), meaning the release point on his slider is about*** 14/100ths of an inch below that of the pitch with the furthest away vertical release point (his curveball) -- pretty much the same as far as the eye can tell, I assume
***Please note that for some reason Savant uses 10ths of a foot rather than inches so it's not quite "of an inch".

Nope, that's not it.

So, what's up? And, is a little over half a foot enough of a difference for a batter to notice so that Valdez could be tipping his slider?

I would think that it would be. Even if hitters aren't consciously seeing "oh hey, that pitch is coming out six inches higher, must be a slider" I think it will make the pitch look different enough that hitters will know its not a sinker or changeup. Now, SSS and everything, but it looks like he has always had this issue, but it has been more exaggerated in 2020 and 2021. And given that it looks like he pretty much tries to only throw this pitch in the corner or just out of the zone, it likely won't fool anyone. Honestly, it looks like it's basically a show me pitch, but that release point difference means it will never be more than that. Having a nearly identical release point as other pitches would allow it to tunnel better with the other pitches, giving it a better chance of fooling hitters. As it is right now, it basically gets taken, and on the rare occasions that batters do swing, it typically gets hit hard. Luckily, he barely throws it. But yeah, with that release point, that pitch is...not a very good pitch.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Wasn't it like 10 years ago or so that a thread here was closed at the request of the RedSox because a member noticed how a pitcher (maybe I am an Idiot ? ) was tipping pitches? I am wondering if this will get the same treatment... if so, nice work, @Hairps

 

[Dim13]

Wasn't it like 10 years ago or so that a thread here was closed at the request of the RedSox because a member noticed how a pitcher (maybe I am an Idiot ? ) was tipping pitches? I am wondering if this will get the same treatment... if so, nice work, @Hairps

Was it OCST that noticed Paul Byrd tipping pitches? I recall that happening and Byrd hearing about the post and changing his delivery.

 

[Tito's Pullover]

ToeKneeArmAss discovered Byrd's pitch tipping. It wasn't covered up by the Sox, to the contrary they fixed it based on this revelation and credited SoSH and TKAA. I remember NESN comically trying to explain the username in a PG manner during a pregame show.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

Ah yeah, Byrd was the word I was looking for. I didn't think it was I am an Idiot, but I felt like it was around that timeframe.

 

[Over Guapo Grande]

https://www.bostonherald.com/2008/09/18/red-sox-on-paul-byrd-watch/ mentions it:

" It should be noted that the Web site sonsofsamhorn.com first reported that Byrd was tipping his pitches. Byrd said he already was aware of the problem and working to correct it, and that the patting of his glove was merely one example of his pitch-tipping, noting that there are other factors."

 

[DJnVa]

So, what's up? And, is a little over half a foot enough of a difference for a batter to notice so that Valdez could be tipping his slider?

Unless I'm reading this wrong, it seems his slider is getting pounded this season, so it's possible it was noticed (or it could be SSS):

Phillips Valdez - Stats - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

Slider Runs Above Average/100 pitches:

2019: -.58
2020: -3.30
2021: +4.71

There's a few other numbers that show similar values. I haven't found the specific numbers to show how hitters are slashing against that pitch.

 

[cannonball 1729]

It looks like he doesn't throw the slider all that much; Fangraphs says that 5-7 percent of his pitches in a given year are sliders, so...it sounds like he's just been using it as a show-me pitch. It seems plausible that because he wasn't throwing the slider much, hitters weren't initially picking up on the fact that it's the only thing that comes out of that unusual arm slot, whereas this year they're teeing off on it.

 

[Hairps]

OK, here are release point images for Valdez's May 6th and May 7th appearances where he threw a slider (those are just the most recent games I found when I worked back through his pitch selection). The slider release points are in yellow.

May 6:



May 7: