Is Breslow at the end of the road?

Rasputin · May 17, 2015

Yes.

Dana Eveland looks like he's killing it, let's give him a shot.

P'tucket rhymes with... · May 17, 2015

Agnostic. As long as he's limited to appearances like today's, though, it doesn't really matter. The twelfth guy is the twelfth guy.

In any event, he'll be resigned about twenty minutes after being DFA'd, if and when that happens.

Toe Nash · May 17, 2015

Hoping for a bounceback was crazy. He never had dominant peripherals even when boasting good results, and even in 2013 he faded badly down the stretch and almost blew three world series games (and did blow one).

Last year his results were terrible AND his velocity was down all year. Like Masterson, I'm not sure what convinced them it would return.

The two million isn't a big deal, but the big problem is that he's not optionable, so they have been optioning better pitchers to the minors (or DFAing them). This was a problem with the bullpen construction last year -- they didn't have anyone they could option to call up a Layne or a spot starter and instead had to move position players, or not make a move at all. Now that they ditched Mujica it's not harming them, but it should never have been an issue. The 12th man in the pen can suck, but he should also be someone you can send down to give someone else a shot (or to give him a rest).

Plympton91 · May 17, 2015

Toe Nash said:
Hoping for a bounceback was crazy. He never had dominant peripherals even when boasting good results, and even in 2013 he faded badly down the stretch and almost blew three world series games (and did blow one).

Last year his results were terrible AND his velocity was down all year. Like Masterson, I'm not sure what convinced them it would return.

The two million isn't a big deal, but the big problem is that he's not optionable, so they have been optioning better pitchers to the minors (or DFAing them). This was a problem with the bullpen construction last year -- they didn't have anyone they could option to call up a Layne or a spot starter and instead had to move position players, or not make a move at all. Now that they ditched Mujica it's not harming them, but it should never have been an issue. The 12th man in the pen can suck, but he should also be someone you can send down to give someone else a shot (or to give him a rest).

I'd third the agreement to this post. Even in years he was "good" he was pitching well above his peripherals, and to the extent that he was good under DI metrics, it was from a low walk rate. The walks remain elevated, probably because with the lessened velocity it's easier for batters to lay off his slop. Eveland was very good for the Mets last year, has been very good for Pawtucket. He deserves Breslow's spot. They need to move over the next two weeks to put the best 25 men in the organization on the major league roster. Experimental season is over.

pantsparty · May 18, 2015

He has bounced back a bit from 2014, both in FIP and ERA, the problem is that he's just not that good. He is getting rocked by LHB this year, and as he's had a bit of a reverse split over the past 5 seasons that's not too unexpected but also makes him less useful. He's 34 so he's not going to develop any more talent at this point and he doesn't have the sort of extreme split where you keep him in the pen to deal with 1-2 tough batters. If there's someone better in AAA, ditch him.

nattysez · May 18, 2015

Tazawa has appeared in more than half of the Sox's games (19 of 37). If they don't find some reliable relievers in a hurry, his arm will fall off by the ASB. Cutting Breslow loose in hopes of replacing him with someone Farrell can trust close and late seems like an awfully good idea.

grimshaw · May 18, 2015

There just isn't much to replace Breslow with right now. Eveland is a 31 year old journeyman. You don't DFA a marginal guy for another old marginal guy. I could see Edwin Escobar in a bit.

Slightly OT - but the Red Sox may be starting to develop some relievers in AA. Joe Gunkel, who was recently promoted to Portland, and Pat Light who have 7th inning type stuff. Light and Gunkel had been starters, but were moved to the pen this year. Both have had some good results. Those guys are 23 and 24 respectively. I think they are the types of guys who need less development time because of their ages, and because you don't need a 3rd pitch for an inning of work. It wouldn't surprise me if Light was added to the 40 man this year.

Buzzkill Pauley · May 18, 2015

I was dead-set against the Sox trying to sneak Breslow through outright waivers in order to hold onto Bryan Corey to start 2008, but that doesn't mean they should keep him on the roster now.

With these starters, the Sox need young bullpen arms able to pitch multiple innings a couple times a week. To me, that means Barnes, Wright, and and Johnson to the pen. Maybe Johnson can go back to starting in AAA once Jedi is "healthy" but I see him as a reliable bullpen arm from the left side, rather than a mediocre starter.

Toe Nash · May 18, 2015

grimshaw said:
There just isn't much to replace Breslow with right now. Eveland is a 31 year old journeyman. You don't DFA a marginal guy for another old marginal guy.

Why not? Relievers are fungible and guys have solid seasons out of the blue all the time.

I would argue that you shouldn't keep a guy around who you know is mediocre when you can try out the other guys in (and outside) your org to catch lightning in a bottle.

grimshaw · May 18, 2015

Toe Nash said:
Why not? Relievers are fungible and guys have solid seasons out of the blue all the time.

I would argue that you shouldn't keep a guy around who you know is mediocre when you can try out the other guys in (and outside) your org to catch lightning in a bottle.

Let me rephrase. I don't think the Red Sox would DFA Breslow to make room Eveland. I could see him coming up for someone with options (Ross Jr) or an injury, but the Red Sox seem to love hoarding resources, marginal or not.

AB in DC · May 19, 2015

He's doing better than I expected, actually -- both his K rates and BB rates are a bit better than last year. And he's averaging about four outs per appearance. That's still has some value. We're not quite at Mujica/Ross level of suckage here.

Hee Sox Choi · Jun 3, 2015

I'm bummed we let this guy go over Breslow. Eveland had a good year last year and was doing well in AAA with a high GB%, 2.92 GO/AO.

Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish reports Dana Eveland has opted out of his minor league contract with the Red Sox, making him a free agent.
Pitching for Triple-A Pawtucket, Eveland has posted a 1.54 ERA and 20/3 K/BB ratio over 23 1/3 innings this season. He could catch on in a better situation with a team looking for major league lefty relief help.

AB in DC · Jun 4, 2015

Never mind Breslow -- I'd take those AAA numbers over Robbie Ross any day.

The Gray Eagle · Jun 4, 2015

Eveland was much better in the majors last year than either Ross or Breslow too (though in only 27.1 IP)

Eveland:
2014: 27.1 IP, 27K, 6 BB, 2.63 ERA, 1.098 WHIP

Ross:
2014: 78.1 IP, 51 K, 30 BB, 6.20 ERA, 1.698 WHIP
2015: 17 IP, 12 K, 6 BB, 5.29 ERA, 1.529 WHIP

Breslow:
2014: 54.1 IP, 37 K, 28 BB, 5.96 ERA, 1.859 WHIP
2015: 21.1 IP, 18 K, 9 BB, 4.22 ERA, 1.500 WHIP

Eveland is the only one of the three that has been good in the majors either last year or this year, even though it was only 27 IP. He had good K/BB numbers this year in Pawtucket, seems a waste to let him walk without ever giving him a shot.

AB in DC · Jun 4, 2015

Then again, those were the only 27.1 innings he's pitched in majors over three seasons (2013-2015), so it's not like any other MLB organization thinks much of him, either.

dynomite · Jun 4, 2015

grimshaw said:
I don't think the Red Sox would DFA Breslow to make room Eveland. I could see him coming up for someone with options (Ross Jr) or an injury, but the Red Sox seem to love hoarding resources, marginal or not.

This seems to have been true, and my question is: why?

Since the beginning of the 2014 season (77 games, 75.2 IP) Breslow has a 5.47 ERA, a 5.17 FIP, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 55/37 K/BB ratio.

What is the point of having a relief pitcher this bad on the team? Indeed, as others had said, doesn't sticking with someone you know is bad prevent you from potentially finding someone who is, well, not bad and upgrading a spot on the roster?

AB in DC · Jun 4, 2015

dynomite said:
This seems to have been true, and my question is: why?

Since the beginning of the 2014 season (77 games, 75.2 IP) Breslow has a 5.47 ERA, a 5.17 FIP, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 55/37 K/BB ratio.

What is the point of having a relief pitcher this bad on the team? Indeed, as others had said, doesn't sticking with someone you know is bad prevent you from potentially finding someone who is, well, not bad and upgrading a spot on the roster?

His 2015 numbers have been better than that. Otherwise I don't think he would be here.

dynomite · Jun 4, 2015

Stan Papi Was Framed said:
he had 7 scoreless appearances to start the season but has pitched 10.1 innings since then allowing 19 hits, 10 ER. 9 Ks to 3 BB in that period, which is hard to believe after watching him (doesn't exactly overpower anyone). He has looked eminently hittable.

Exactly. In fact, his xFIP is even worse this season than last: 5.28 vs. 5.13. He is not a good pitcher anymore.

I'll remain forever grateful for Breslow's contributions in the 2013 ALDS and ALCS, but at this point his seems like one of the easiest positions to upgrade on the roster.

HriniakPosterChild · Jun 4, 2015

Mostly the Tampa Bay series. I don't think we win it without his IP in the Trop.

dynomite · Jun 4, 2015

So I'm going to go out on a limb and say:

1) To answer the thread title: Yes.

2) I would not be surprised if Breslow is DFA this week.

soxhop411 · Jun 4, 2015

Survey says:

Yes

czar · Jun 4, 2015

dynomite said:
So I'm going to go out on a limb and say:

1) To answer the thread title: Yes.

2) I would not be surprised if Breslow is DFA this week.

I would be surprised if he ISN'T, but then again, I would have been surprised if the Red Sox brought a soft-tossing lefty reliever with a ~4.50 career xFIP back on a guaranteed deal, but here we are.

MuzzyField · Jun 4, 2015

He's toast, but DFA'ing him changes so little in the big picture. It doesn't matter.

MuzzyField · Jun 5, 2015

Stan Papi Was Framed said:
sure, but why not improve where you can? I don't understand why they would keep someone who can very easily be replaced with someone better, especially when Breslow's salary is so low. why keep him?

or, as Red Sox Stats puts it:

Red Sox Stats ‏@redsoxstats 2h2 hours ago
It's time to see what you have in Jonathan Aro, Heath Hembree or Dalier Hinojosa instead of keeping good-guy Craig Breslow as the white flag

it's the big ticket items and aging legends that will sink or swim this team. Plenty of sink so far. Dump Craig, but it should be an afterthought in the final graph of the fix this for real story. This team really is broken and this is after a major fix attempt by Ben and his 'elite' staff of talent evaluators.

AB in DC · Jun 15, 2015

Maybe the club was right about Eveland after all: in four appearances with Atlanta this month, he has faced nine batters and retired only four.

Lose Remerswaal · Jun 16, 2015

To be fair, he's pitching to Pierzynski

Is Breslow at the end of the road?

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