Chicks dig the long ball! A story of juiced balls and AAA dingers

When do the IL and PCL break their 2018 HR totals (choose two!)

  • IL-June

  • IL-July

  • IL-August

  • IL-September

  • PCL-June

  • PCL-July

  • PCL-August

  • PCL-September


Results are only viewable after voting.

soxhop411

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SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
34,121
I put this on the baseball reddit after being home sick the past few days and just browsing MILB stats on B-Ref since I was quarantined in my room with nothing better to do.

As we all know AAA switched to MLB balls this year and the offensive change is staggering less then a year in.

So far in AAA the IL has hit 726 HR’s (1555 in 2018) and the PCL has hit 1060 HR’s (2097 in 2018) which is %46.6 and %50.5 of their home run totals from last year.


And this is before the weather even gets warm.

I wonder what it’s going to take for MLB to admit the balls are juiced.
 
Last edited:

soxhop411

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
34,121
Is this a follow up to the Are the balls juiced? thread?
Yes. Because we kind of have statistical proof now. We can now compare the amount of homers hit in AAA last year to the pace that AAA will be hitting homers this year. And if both the IL And PCL keep up the pace they may double the amount of homers hit compared to their 2018 total.
 

djbayko

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SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,848
Waltham, MA
Yes. Because we kind of have statistical proof now. We can now compare the amount of homers hit in AAA last year to the pace that AAA will be hitting homers this year. And if both the IL And PCL keep up the pace they may double the amount of homers hit compared to their 2018 total.
Forgive me if I’m missing something, but how does this prove that the MLB balls are juiced? I assume what we care about is whether or not the 2019 MLB ball is more juiced than it was in 2015, 2010, 2005, etc. I don’t see how switching out MiLB balls for MLB balls tells us anything about that. Maybe you would have seen a similar jump in HRs if they switch balls back in 1992.

I’m not saying the ball isn’t juiced. I’m just not sure this is an experiment which does anything to help prove or disprove the hypothesis.
 

effectivelywild

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
230
Forgive me if I’m missing something, but how does this prove that the MLB balls are juiced? I assume what we care about is whether or not the 2019 MLB ball is more juiced than it was in 2015, 2010, 2005, etc. I don’t see how switching out MiLB balls for MLB balls tells us anything about that. Maybe you would have seen a similar jump in HRs if they switch balls back in 1992.

I’m not saying the ball isn’t juiced. I’m just not sure this is an experiment which does anything to help prove or disprove the hypothesis.
All it would prove is that the major league balls are "juiced" relative to the ones the minor leagues were using. Still interesting on its surface.
 

soxhop411

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
34,121
I put this on the baseball reddit after being home sick the past few days and just browsing MILB stats on B-Ref since I was quarantined in my room with nothing better to do.

As we all know AAA switched to MLB balls this year and the offensive change is staggering less then a year in.

So far in AAA the IL has hit 726 HR’s (1555 in 2018) and the PCL has hit 1060 HR’s (2097 in 2018) which is %46.6 and %50.5 of their home run totals from last year.


And this is before the weather even gets warm.

I wonder what it’s going to take for MLB to admit the balls are juiced.
Since I posted these numbers a week ago, there have been big changes.
IL went from 726 Homers to 904 homers (%46.6 to %58.13) and the PCL went from 1060 to 1236 Homers (%50.5 to 59%)