Celtics 1st Round Selection (3rd overall): Jaylen Brown

bowiac

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Just having read the scouting reports on Brown, they all say that he is decent mechanically and his shot is far from broken. The main issues I have read are setting his feet and inconsistency on the release/landing spot. Pretty much all of them say he has nice touch and spin on the ball
Okay, but why do we think setting his feet and inconsistency with release/landing spot is easier to fix than poor touch or spin?
 

nighthob

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Just having read the scouting reports on Brown, they all say that he is decent mechanically and his shot is far from broken. The main issues I have read are setting his feet and inconsistency on the release/landing spot. Pretty much all of them say he has nice touch and spin on the ball
Okay, but why do we think setting his feet and inconsistency with release/landing spot is easier to fix than poor touch or spin?
Getting them to steady the release point is a matter of repetition and slowing the game down. Similarly with getting the player to balance before shooting (i.e. not rush the shot). If the shooting motion is broken it's much harder because you need to work on everything at once, and it becomes harder for all the lessons to stick. See Smart, Marcus.
 

tims4wins

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Chris Forsberg ESPN Staff Writer

Celtics No. 3 pick Jaylen Brown: "I'm going to go to war for this city. I'm going to play passionate."
 

mt8thsw9th

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Generally not the be-all end-all, but just going through his tweets he seems to be a down to earth, well-rounded kid.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Getting them to steady the release point is a matter of repetition and slowing the game down. Similarly with getting the player to balance before shooting (i.e. not rush the shot). If the shooting motion is broken it's much harder because you need to work on everything at once, and it becomes harder for all the lessons to stick. See Smart, Marcus.
Brown's chart shot from last year is below. If people look at the video I posted earlier today, they will see Brown with pretty good mechanics but just drilling shots from the corner. There is no way he's shooting 8% from the NBA corner 3 next year.

edit: put chart in spoiler because of size
 
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BigSoxFan

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I started the thread but haven't given my opinion. For now, I give Ainge a B-. Not the total disaster some make it out to be but not my "dream" draft either. As for the picks:

Jaylen Brown: I see the intrigue with him. There is real potential there but the risk of him never being a primary scoring option is legit. He will be subjected to the same expectations as Smart due to his draft position, which may outpace reality. For now, I trust in Stevens to develop him but, man, I really wanted Dunn.

Yabusele: This one a shocker to me. No idea if he would have lasted to 23 but there were other more intriguing guys out there for me. Basically treating him as a toolsy Single A prospect. Not expecting anything for 2-3 years, if ever, and hope to be surprised.

Zizic: We got a Z! Looks to be a solid rotational big in time and those always serve a purpose. No issues here.

31/35 trade: Not excited for this. Would have rather trade these for a guy like Dejounte Murray, if possible. Felt like this was a perfect opportunity to take some chances. Hopefully the pick becomes useful trade fodder down the road.

Jackson: No issues with this one. Productive player who should be decent Rozier depth. Will be bad news if he's seeing any kind of significant minutes.

Bentil: Wanted him so happy with this. Talented offensive player who'll suck on defense but who could provide 2nd unit scoring down the road. Not likely to see any minutes this year.

Abdel: Meh...whatever.

All in all, I will be watching Okafor's career a lot more closely now. If you had given most of us the opportunity before the 2015 draft to trade the 2016 Nets pick for Okafor, I bet almost all of us would have done it. We'll see.
 

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It's odd that people who are concerned about Brown's shooting are pining for Dunn. Neither of them is a good shooter, and Dunn is three years older, plus Dunn isn't even a viable pro (let alone a good pick at #3) if that shot doesn't develop. At least Brown has a shot at something like Tony Allen's career even if his shot never comes around.
 

BigSoxFan

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It's odd that people who are concerned about Brown's shooting are pining for Dunn. Neither of them is a good shooter, and Dunn is three years older, plus Dunn isn't even a viable pro (let alone a good pick at #3) if that shot doesn't develop. At least Brown has a shot at something like Tony Allen's career even if his shot never comes around.
Was Rondo a viable pro? When did his shot develop? Dunn is a good passer and potentially elite defender at the PG position.
 

BigSoxFan

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Mostly agree, but important to note that you're talking about Rondo in the past tense. Which sort of underscores the increasing importance on shooting for point guards.
Russell Westbrook is kind of the counterpoint for that though, no? Ditto for guys like Wall. Dunn is relatively close to them athletically. I think he'll be a productive pro even if his shot never gets much better. I'd also say his defense will make him very valuable, which is something that Rondo couldn't fall back on.
 

chilidawg

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Jaylen Brown: I see the intrigue with him. There is real potential there but the risk of him never being a primary scoring option is legit. He will be subjected to the same expectations as Smart due to his draft position, which may outpace reality. For now, I trust in Stevens to develop him but, man, I really wanted Dunn.
I get the concern about him not being a primary scoring option, but which of the alternatives are without that risk? Certainly not Bender or Dunn. And I think Hield and Murray profile more as off the ball shooters rather than primary creators.
 

chilidawg

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Russell Westbrook is kind of the counterpoint for that though, no? Ditto for guys like Wall. Dunn is relatively close to them athletically. I think he'll be a productive pro even if his shot never gets much better. I'd also say his defense will make him very valuable, which is something that Rondo couldn't fall back on.
Wasn't Rondo All Defensive Team a couple times? I remember him being an excellent defender until he just started pouting too much his last year or two.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Russell Westbrook is kind of the counterpoint for that though, no? Ditto for guys like Wall. Dunn is relatively close to them athletically. I think he'll be a productive pro even if his shot never gets much better. I'd also say his defense will make him very valuable, which is something that Rondo couldn't fall back on.
You think Dunn is a better athlete than Brown?

BTW, Rondo was second team All-defense in 2008 and 2011 and first team all-Defense in 2009 and 2010. And there's no way Dunn will be as good of a passer as Rondo.

Athletically speaking, before his injury, Rondo was pretty special.
 

BigSoxFan

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Wasn't Rondo All Defensive Team a couple times? I remember him being an excellent defender until he just started pouting too much his last year or two.
Jeter won a lot of Gold Gloves. I wouldn't go by awards in judging someone's capabilities. Ultimately, it's not that I think Dunn vs. Brown is a slam dunk no brainer but I preferred Dunn because I think he has a similar ceiling as Brown and a higher floor.

We shall see. I really want Brown to work out because we really need that athletic 2-way wing in today's game. Clearly, Ainge thinks he can fill the role that he hoped Winslow would fill a year ago. And with Crowder in the fold, he won't be forced into minutes so it could be a good situation for him.

And I really trust Stevens' development abilities.
 

BigSoxFan

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You think Dunn is a better athlete than Brown?

BTW, Rondo was second team All-defense in 2008 and 2011 and first team all-Defense in 2009 and 2010. And there's no way Dunn will be as good of a passer as Rondo.

Athletically speaking, before his injury, Rondo was pretty special.
I think Dunn and Brown are comparable athletes - both are very good in that department. Dunn comes into the NBA with less question marks with his game than Brown. There really isn't much for him to work on outside of shooting and decision making. Brown needs to work on basically everything. Doesn't mean he won't get there eventually but I see greater risk with him.
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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Russell Westbrook is kind of the counterpoint for that though, no? Ditto for guys like Wall. Dunn is relatively close to them athletically. I think he'll be a productive pro even if his shot never gets much better. I'd also say his defense will make him very valuable, which is something that Rondo couldn't fall back on.
Maybe I should have phrased it as scoring, as opposed to shooting.
 

bowiac

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It's odd that people who are concerned about Brown's shooting are pining for Dunn. Neither of them is a good shooter, and Dunn is three years older, plus Dunn isn't even a viable pro (let alone a good pick at #3) if that shot doesn't develop. At least Brown has a shot at something like Tony Allen's career even if his shot never comes around.
This may be true, but it's a bit like saying Dunn has a shot to be Russell Westbrook if the shot doesn't come around. It's not easy to play Tony Allen level defense, and Brown wouldn't be the first high level athlete to struggle defensively at the NBA level.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I was trying to find some comparable seasons to Brown's freshman year, but it turns out that's pretty hard to do because, even on a superficial level, it's really rare. Usage % has only been tracked for six years, but in that time, across all of college basketball only 12 freshman forwards have had a Usage > 30% with more than 700 minutes played. Only 3 of those have come from majors: Cousins, Jabari Parker, and Brown.

Reducing the Usage% down to 28% brings in, from the majors, Terrance Jones (Kentucky), Cleveland Melvin (Depaul), Shabazz Muhammed, Jordan Tolbert (Texas Tech), JaKarr Sampson (St. Johns), Le'Bryan Nash (OK State). Of the blue chippers Parker and Muhammed are the most similar offensively- they all got the line at a similar rate, and took about the same number of threes. Brown had a much higher assist%, though that came with a higher TO%, and he was the worst shooter of the three. His DBPM is second to Terrance Jones among everyone; his OBPM was middle of the pack.

Reducing the Usage% further down to >26% brings in Ben Simmons, Sully, Derrick Williams, Ellenson, Stanley Johnson, Tobias Harris, CJ Leslie, Harrison Barnes, and Lance Stephenson from the majors. It's really rare for a big time college program to rely so heavily on a freshman.

Fun Fact discovered while looking at this: out of all 45 freshman forwards in D1 ball since 2009 to log 700 minutes with a Usage > 26%, the guy who had the worst PER, and second worst BPM while doing it is your newest Celtic, Abdel Nader.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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Fun Fact discovered while looking at this: out of all 45 freshman forwards in D1 ball since 2009 to log 700 minutes with a Usage > 26%, the guy who had the worst PER, and second worst BPM while doing it is your newest Celtic, Abdel Nader.
Nice post. About Nader - it appears he got a big boost at Portsmouth being named to all - tournament team and it is said that at a pre-draft skills training, he was impressive as a shooter. http://www.basketballinsiders.com/abdel-nader-impresses-at-portsmouth/

Of course I'm sure his willingness to take a non-guaranteed contract (unlike, for example, Carter) helped.
 

Kliq

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I'm lukewarm at best on Brown. By any calculation he is a top level athlete and can probably play multiple positions right now in the NBA. He has the tools to be a very good defender, but I don't think right now he is one. He can attack the basket well and get to the FT line and that should be his best skill right from the get go. What really worries me is his shooting. I don't have a lot of faith in him right now as a shooter or improving significantly in his first season. His mechanics are all over the place, he is inconsistent in his landing, and he is a very poor shooter on the move; he really needs time to get his shot off which is going to be a problem in the longer and faster NBA.

I think the obvious upside comp is DeMar DeRozan.
 

Cellar-Door

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So if you want to feel better... go take a look at Kawhi's freshman production. Other than rebounds
I'm lukewarm at best on Brown. By any calculation he is a top level athlete and can probably play multiple positions right now in the NBA. He has the tools to be a very good defender, but I don't think right now he is one. He can attack the basket well and get to the FT line and that should be his best skill right from the get go. What really worries me is his shooting. I don't have a lot of faith in him right now as a shooter or improving significantly in his first season. His mechanics are all over the place, he is inconsistent in his landing, and he is a very poor shooter on the move; he really needs time to get his shot off which is going to be a problem in the longer and faster NBA.

I think the obvious upside comp is DeMar DeRozan.
I think his upside is a bit higher, and he's definitely bigger/stronger, but that isn't a bad comp.
Other comps I've seen: Vince Carter, Jimmy Butler, Jason Richardon, Kawhi, Iguodala.
None of them seems perfect, in part because it all depends on which skills develop. In terms of frame he's heavier than all of those guys were coming out, and probably heavier and stronger than a few are now (Butler, DeRozan), his length is not as good as Kawhi's but better than the rest. Comparing Freshman numbers his shooting is on the lower end of the group, his turnovers are on the high end, of course none of those guys had the usage he did as a freshman.

There's a lot of projection to make with him, but his tools are terrific.
 

reggiecleveland

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The turnover to assists worry me as much as the shooting. Freshman or not he was one of or the best athletes on the floor all the time, but was still turning it over. An aathletic guy can be player without great shooting, Rondo has been mentioned, but he needs to be a good decision maker.
 

bowiac

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So if you want to feel better... go take a look at Kawhi's freshman production. Other than rebounds
Or steals. Or free frow percentage.

Plus, Kawhi wasn't drafted as a freshman, let alone the #3 pick in the draft.
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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Saw Brown on a flight to San Francisco last night. Not really noteworthy except that he wore a suit for the flight and his Celtics hat from the draft the whole flight. No idea how he is going or is not going to work out but it was neat to see a young guy like that obviously still on cloud 9 after being drafted.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Here's some detailed scouting notes from Joshua Riddell at Draftexpress on Brown. Of note:
- Great open court speed, explosive, lateral movements
- Can explode to the rim off the dribble in traffic - wants to dunk everything around the rim and he can
- Will be one of the best athletes for a SF when he gets into NBA
- Lots of athletic potential, on-court skill not fully developed
- Overall feel for the game is poor
- Great in transition - can handle the ball
- High turnover rate - 15%+ - charges, sloppy passes
- Victim of his poor shot selection rather than form
- Elite first step - can get to the rim even with guys in front of him
- Decent ball skills, nice moves but can get out of control and reckless at times
- Potential to attack out of pick and roll - can use his speed to get past big man on edge
- Will split PNR and explode to rim
- Poor reads out of PNR as well - doesn't make great decisions
- Below average finishing at rim - tries to force shots against big man instead of kicking it out
- Great wingspan to get into passing lanes but gambles too much and gets out of position
- High usage, low efficiency type ball dominator

Pro Outlook
Showed enough on the court plus athletic talent to be a top 5 pick
Should go no lower than 10: Range should be 4-8
Still a gamble because he may never improve feel/decision making
May need some time to adjust to pace of game, especially as he works on decision making
Could grow into superstar but should at least be a nice bench scorer
This all screams 'needs great coaching' and that's one thing Celtics have.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I don't know if anyone cares but here is a first-hand, semi-hagiographic account of Jaylen Brown.

"After watching him this entire past year, Jaylen is undoubtedly an unfinished product. His shot selection is often weak, decision-making is poor when driving into the key, soft midrange and free throw game, and personally speaking, sometimes confused and seemingly not focused. A zone defense and playing alongside two 7 footers and lack of shooters did not help his skills in the paint, and clogged his creativity. But at 6’7 with through-the-ceiling athleticism and wingspan, let me tell you how he can be this year’s best draft pick."

More at:
http://www.celticsblog.com/2016/6/24/12028372/i-went-to-school-with-jaylen-brown-here-is-why-he-is-different
 

DannyDarwinism

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"playing alongside two 7 footers and lack of shooters did not help his skills in the paint, and clogged his creativity."

More at:
http://www.celticsblog.com/2016/6/24/12028372/i-went-to-school-with-jaylen-brown-here-is-why-he-is-different
I've seen versions of this claim given elsewhere- that the lack of shooters on Cal hurt Brown's efficiency and can therefore help to explain his poor offensive numbers- but the stats don't really bear this out. Cal was 4th out of the 12 teams in the Pac-10 for 2P%, 5th in 3P% and 4th in points per shot. Just eyeballing team stats for the ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Big East, and Cal would firmly place in the top third overall in most shooting categories.
 

Cellar-Door

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I've seen versions of this claim given elsewhere- that the lack of shooters on Cal hurt Brown's efficiency and can therefore help to explain his poor offensive numbers- but the stats don't really bear this out. Cal was 4th out of the 12 teams in the Pac-10 for 2P%, 5th in 3P% and 4th in points per shot. Just eyeballing team stats for the ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and Big East, and Cal would firmly place in the top third overall in most shooting categories.
Those look like the in-conference numbers. Basically all of their 3s came from 3 guys Matthews Bird and Brown. Brown shot 35% from 3 in conference easily 3rd best on the team (also not bad, problem was he went 11/47out of conference).
The other problem is that Matthews and Bird were both stationary catch and shoot SGs who took 55 and 63% of their shots from 3. The PG, Wallace is very poor 3pt shooter, and the other 10 guys on the roster didn't take 3s.
So the spacing wasn't very good, and the sharp shooters depended on Wallace or Brown getting them the ball for wide open 3s while they waited in the corner. The offense just did not run very well and teams clogged pup on Brown and Rabb daring Matthews and Bird to make enough open shots to win (think the Hawks defense against the Celtics in the playoffs).

Edit- So something interesting I noticed is that Brown was considerably better in Conference play, compared to his overall numbers (I'll look for non-conference splits and update if I find them) right around 3% higher TS and eFG, 2% better AST rate, 1.5% lower TOV rate, 0.5% better BLK rate, .024 higher WS/48. Still not great numbers overall, but a decent difference, given UVA was the only difficult non-conference game, feels like a poor season was made to look worse by a bad stretch at the very beginning of his college career.
 
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DannyDarwinism

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http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/conferences/statistics/team/_/stat/field-goals/year/2016/seasontype/2/id/21/pac-12-conference

That's where I got the numbers, and I thought, based on the "Games Played" column, that those are the overall numbers, rather than just in-conference. They don't quite match up with the sports-reference team numbers, but they're closer than the in-conference stats.

Good to hear some additional context, and looking at some of the other Pac 12 teams, Cal's 3PT attempt distribution was top heavy, though not terribly so, as Washington, USC, Arizona, Stanford, Colorado and Utah all were similar. I can't find college line-up data, but it might also be useful to know how often Brown was on the floor with Matthews and Bird. My general issue though is that if I want to discount Brown's poor efficiency numbers based on poor spacing, I'd have to have a better sense of other teams' spacing, since ultimately, it's all relative if I'm comparing him to other prospects or trying to find pro comps. I've read about it in enough scouting reports to give it some weight, but I wonder if it's being overstated by some. My biggest source of optimism regarding his poor analytics remains that his usage rate for a freshman was basically unprecedented for someone not coached by Krzyzewski or Calipari, and while his current strengths aren't suited to high usage, he won't be relied on for that anytime soon- he can play some D and rim run for now, and develop his game without having to be the man. Also, if consistent effort and focus really was an issue in college, given what I've read about him, my hope is that he'll thrive in a professional environment surrounded by older veterans and a great coach.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Okay, but why do we think setting his feet and inconsistency with release/landing spot is easier to fix than poor touch or spin?
I'm telling ya you guys are gonna LOVE this kid!! Smart, intense, competitor........has all the mental makeup signs one looks for to grow into his insane athleticism. All I'll say about his shooting mechanics being broken is that this is not correct.....they are very good for a raw 19-year old. He has a natural instinct to square his shoulders and go straight up (unlike Marcus who was all over the place mechanically at OK State), elbow stays in and has a consistent release point. I don't see him as a long-range shooter off the dribble more of a mid-range threat off a dribble move however he should be really good in time as a catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter.
 

Kliq

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I'm telling ya you guys are gonna LOVE this kid!! Smart, intense, competitor........has all the mental makeup signs one looks for to grow into his insane athleticism. All I'll say about his shooting mechanics being broken is that this is not correct.....they are very good for a raw 19-year old. He has a natural instinct to square his shoulders and go straight up (unlike Marcus who was all over the place mechanically at OK State), elbow stays in and has a consistent release point. I don't see him as a long-range shooter off the dribble more of a mid-range threat off a dribble move however he should be really good in time as a catch-and-shoot 3-point shooter.
He doesn't have a consistent release point, he holds the ball in different locations and often times well over his head. He also lands awkwardly often; for an athletic guy he sure doesn't look like one when he is shooting from three. He could very well develop into a three point threat but he has a long way to go.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He doesn't have a consistent release point, he holds the ball in different locations and often times well over his head. He also lands awkwardly often; for an athletic guy he sure doesn't look like one when he is shooting from three. He could very well develop into a three point threat but he has a long way to go.
I know that's the DraftExpress scouting report which to me seems biased as that isn't how I've interpreted his mechanics at all. Shooting a contested jumper off the dribble is naturally going to result in a different release and landing point as opposed to catch-and-shoot which does have consistent mechanics, rotation and arc leading me to believe that he's a prime candidate as a 19-year old to figure it out.
 

Kliq

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I know that's the DraftExpress scouting report which to me seems biased as that isn't how I've interpreted his mechanics at all. Shooting a contested jumper off the dribble is naturally going to result in a different release and landing point as opposed to catch-and-shoot which does have consistent mechanics, rotation and arc leading me to believe that he's a prime candidate as a 19-year old to figure it out.
Well if you don't agree with it than of course it's biased.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Well if you don't agree with it than of course it's biased.
Hey I was being generous and giving them the benefit of the doubt. I've read their commentary going on and on about something I've looked specifically for and didn't see.

There are certainly different release points and different landing spots in his shots however it is due to those attempts having different characteristics to them and not in the context of him simply having inconsistent mechanics on attempts in rhythm like say Marcus Smart has in the past.
 

Auger34

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He doesn't have a consistent release point, he holds the ball in different locations and often times well over his head. He also lands awkwardly often; for an athletic guy he sure doesn't look like one when he is shooting from three. He could very well develop into a three point threat but he has a long way to go.
I noticed this as well actually. It seems like sometimes he starts with his hands around his face, cocks the ball to the left then shoots whereas sometimes he starts with his hands higher and goes straight into the shot. Either way, the spin and the touch on the ball looks very good from both release points
 

Auger34

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I will also say that the more I read about him the more the Winslow comp makes a ton of sense. As a Duke fan, I watched all of Justise's games as a freshman and he has the same negatives (not a great shooter, tends to barrel into the lane without looking for the pass, only drives one way) as Brown. Winslow just had the luxury of playing in a much better system that gave him much more space (in addition to having much better teammates and a much better coach.)
Hopefully his rookie year is as good as Justise's was
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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I will also say that the more I read about him the more the Winslow comp makes a ton of sense. As a Duke fan, I watched all of Justise's games as a freshman and he has the same negatives (not a great shooter, tends to barrel into the lane without looking for the pass, only drives one way) as Brown he just played in a much better system that gave him much more space with much better teammates and a much better coach.
Hopefully his rookie year is just as good as Justise's was
Not knowing much about college statistical methodologies, I wonder how much impact different systems have on the analysis. For example, Krzyzewski used Ingram perfectly as a stretch 4 and having other players that can help open up the floor. I'm sure if he played on other teams, he wouldn't have had those luxuries. Similarly, in terms of steals, Sam Vecenie from CBS sports said this:

"His [defensive numbers] aren't terrific, but that's a function of the defensive scheme than it is on Brown's ability to rise up and block shots or get into passing lanes. Martin more than most coaches emphasizes sitting down in a stance and rotating in order to keep teams out of the paint as opposed to gambling for turnovers and transition points. During each of Martin's two years in charge at Cal, the team has finished in the bottom five nationally in terms of forced turnover rate, and over the last six years his teams have never finished in the top 250 nationally."

I think Brown's numbers would have looked a lot different if he went to KY or MI or NC.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I don't normally go on Reddits but I thought some folk might be interested in this interview by a Korean basketball website with a Korean data analyst named Jae Yup Kim, who apparently has had some interaction with Brown, Cal, and NBA front offices: https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/4q2s2j/translation_an_interview_with_a_data_analyst/. Here's one tidbit:

"He did not play well in last month including tournaments. It did harm his value in the draft. Various NBA teams including Celtics inquired about the reason. I personally think it was because of the match against Arizona at may 3rd. The whole Arizona players were flopping whenever brown tried to slash. Brown is strong guy, and loves to move in straight line. Arizona was trying to get offensive foul calls. He actually did 3 offensive fouls in a game. After that day, brown did not try to penetrate as he did before. He cared too much about offensive foul calls to try brute penetration again. I told you before. He thinks too much. HAHA. Before Arizona game, brown averaged 15.8 pts and 2.9 fouls per game in 29 matches. But after Arizona game, he averaged 7.8 pts and 4 fouls per game in last 5 matches. FG% dropped from 46% to 21%. This is not a normal number. I think Sean Miller, the head coach of Arizona, did very good job about him. So, whenever NBA teams requested scouting report for brown, I did not forget to mention this 'Sean Miller Effects". I don't know how Celtics thought about this, but I'm happy with the result."
 

Auger34

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I don't normally go on Reddits but I thought some folk might be interested in this interview by a Korean basketball website with a Korean data analyst named Jae Yup Kim, who apparently has had some interaction with Brown, Cal, and NBA front offices: https://www.reddit.com/r/bostonceltics/comments/4q2s2j/translation_an_interview_with_a_data_analyst/. Here's one tidbit:

"He did not play well in last month including tournaments. It did harm his value in the draft. Various NBA teams including Celtics inquired about the reason. I personally think it was because of the match against Arizona at may 3rd. The whole Arizona players were flopping whenever brown tried to slash. Brown is strong guy, and loves to move in straight line. Arizona was trying to get offensive foul calls. He actually did 3 offensive fouls in a game. After that day, brown did not try to penetrate as he did before. He cared too much about offensive foul calls to try brute penetration again. I told you before. He thinks too much. HAHA. Before Arizona game, brown averaged 15.8 pts and 2.9 fouls per game in 29 matches. But after Arizona game, he averaged 7.8 pts and 4 fouls per game in last 5 matches. FG% dropped from 46% to 21%. This is not a normal number. I think Sean Miller, the head coach of Arizona, did very good job about him. So, whenever NBA teams requested scouting report for brown, I did not forget to mention this 'Sean Miller Effects". I don't know how Celtics thought about this, but I'm happy with the result."
That was actually a really interesting article. The thing that jumped out to me was the changing of his routine at the FT line every time. If that's true, a coach needs to talk to him about that and get him into a set routine
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
That Cuonzo Martin argument is plausible, but it's also something we hear every time some prospect or other has mediocre numbers.

As near as I can tell, Martin has put two guys into the NBA so far, one of which (Jarnell Stokes) only has 144 career NBA minutes. The is Josh Richardson, who played for Martin for three seasons. Richardson's STL% was about 2% under Martin, but then did spike to 3.8% after Martin left for Cal. On the other hand, Richardson's NBA STL% is a relatively mediocre 1.7%, and is in line with his career NCAA numbers.

Looking at what happened to Tennessee's STL% after Martin left, and what happened to Cal's STL% after Martin arrived, the Tenn/Cal STL% with Martin was 1.37% across 7400 minutes, while it spiked to 2.03% without Martin across 7800 minutes.

Honestly, this is more promising than I expected. If Brown's STL% was proportionately higher (~2.5%), he would be a pretty ordinary "toolsy, but raw" prospect, as opposed to a "set your hair on fire" prospect. Doesn't really move me off the ledge, but gives me some hope.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,584
Well, he played Arizona on March 3rd, not May 3, but those last 5 games knocked his shooting percentage from .464 to .431, his FTA dropped by a third, and his TOs jumped 20% so something happened, whether it was Sean Miller making him so uncomfortable that he was messed up for 2 weeks or it was just a really bad stretch at the worst time.

However, the NBA teams are going to figure that stuff out, so he needs to learn how to deal with that.
 

burstnbloom

Member
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Jul 12, 2005
2,795
His shooting is as advertised though. It looks like he's been working on it but his release is slow and he even looked hesitant taking foul shots. He does jump out of the gym though and that block on Simmons was sick.
 

zenter

indian sweet
SoSH Member
Oct 11, 2005
5,641
Astoria, NY
Very explosive. Little better touch than expected. Possible mean streak. Only one summer game but I liked it.
Maybe it was me mis-reading the situation, but wasn't this kind of already known? Ainge likes his chip-on-shoulder guys.