Best value contracts in the NBA

the moops

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There are different ways of thinking on this, obviously. With limits on max contracts, and such a finite supply of players - are players like Giannis and Tatum and Luka the "best value" contracts? Or is it more a Desmond Bane or Ja Morant or Jaylen Brown type?

Has this been looked into? I can't imagine as it as simple as a Salary/WAR thing? Or maybe it is?
 

luckiestman

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The top guys are underpaid. Only interesting discussion to read to me would be about non max-players.
 

the moops

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The top guys are underpaid. Only interesting discussion to read to me would be about non max-players.
The top guys definitely are.

But...Ja Morant is making 12 million this year. He is a no doubt max player - not as good as the top guys, but he has gotta be close enough to make up for the 20+ million dollar difference, right?
 

luckiestman

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The top guys definitely are.

But...Ja Morant is making 12 million this year. He is a no doubt max player - not as good as the top guys, but he has gotta be close enough to make up for the 20+ million dollar difference, right?
Yes, you’re right.12 this years then high 30s. That’s great value for this year.

If TimeLord was not an injury risk his contact would be great (I understand that his injury risk is priced in).
 

JakeRae

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The top guys definitely are.

But...Ja Morant is making 12 million this year. He is a no doubt max player - not as good as the top guys, but he has gotta be close enough to make up for the 20+ million dollar difference, right?
Nope, although this is actually a rare example of a player who is both cheap enough and good enough for this question to not be insane. Ja’s current contract has a pretty similar amount of surplus value as Giannis or Jokic’s. However, surplus value is just one measure of value, and I still don’t think it’s close that you’d take an MVP level player over a top 25 player on a severe discount without a second thought. Also, MVP level players’ value advantage only grows in the playoffs when minutes are extended and the game shifts toward emphasizing the ability to generate matchup advantages, so the above idea of similar surplus value, which is based on regular season performance, only tells part of the story.
 

Sox Puppet

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I guess another way of looking at this would be -- what are the contracts that you (as a GM) would happily give out again without a second thought. Say if I'm Bob Myers, I don't blink an eye at giving Steph $53.8M, whereas I might have to think twice about signing Klay again to $38M even though it's a cheaper contract.

I also don't know if players on their first contracts should count for this debate, since it's only a matter of time before a player like Anthony Edwards gets his.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah I think it gets more interesting to discuss second contracts where there is some judgment involved and not just CBA mandates. Jaylen Brown enters the discussion.
If you’re a young quality starter you will almost always be “overpaid” in comparison to the teams star and you will get paid (Herro, Simons, etc). It seems that the best value contracts are the ones traded for when a player needs a change of scenery, fresh start, etc. The problem with many of these guys on a long-term deal is that the issues which made this player require a change of scenery are likely to pop up again from a character/personality trait. Guys like Christian Wood today, Boogie who has value for his first month until everyone wants to throw him off the team bus….James Posey is a good ex-Celtics example of this type of player.
 

nighthob

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I’d say that Tatum at 25% is the best value in the NBA right now. Especially as that second designated veteran contract assures that he re-signs.
 

Reverend

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Value to whom? Owners etc., usually not named, often say that, at the end of the day, the goal of the team is to make money; winning is a means to that end.

I think we have some examples of owners who have stupid FU money who want to win first and foremost, but not all teams are really trying to win a championship, not for a number of years anyway. So teams might have very different ideas of value here.
 

BaseballJones

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What ends up happening in the NBA if they got rid of the individual max and only had a team max? I guess the individual max would essentially be - assuming 15 guys on the roster - the team max less 14 league minimum contracts.

Let's say the NBA cap this year is $156 million. League minimum is $1 million for rookies and $1.8 million for anyone past 2 years' service time.

Would someone like Curry or Giannis really sign a deal for like $100 million a year, then be surrounded by 14 other guys averaging $4 million a year contracts? How would the contract landscape look if the only "max" that existed was a team max?
 

Swedgin

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If we're limiting this to second contracts, then the answer is MVP caliber players on max contracts and its not close. The nature of the game - five guys, one ball - allows elite talent to have a more direct impact on winning than in the other major team sports.
 

scottyno

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What ends up happening in the NBA if they got rid of the individual max and only had a team max? I guess the individual max would essentially be - assuming 15 guys on the roster - the team max less 14 league minimum contracts.

Let's say the NBA cap this year is $156 million. League minimum is $1 million for rookies and $1.8 million for anyone past 2 years' service time.

Would someone like Curry or Giannis really sign a deal for like $100 million a year, then be surrounded by 14 other guys averaging $4 million a year contracts? How would the contract landscape look if the only "max" that existed was a team max?
Depends if they also got rid of Bird rights. Both those players play for teams that are already above the cap and also don't need to add outside talent, so theoretically they could sign for 100m and still have a championship caliber roster.
 

JM3

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I like to solve all problems via imaginary drafts. I see two options for this one:

1) Snake draft where each drafter has a salary cap they can't exceed & they are picking players on their current contracts. Who goes first?

2) Auction draft where everyone is trying to put together a team with a certain salary cap & the only limitation is that you need to reserve a minimum salary for each roster spot. Who goes for the most over their irl contract.

I think the answer to both is Giannis tbh.
 

Jimbodandy

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I like to solve all problems via imaginary drafts. I see two options for this one:

1) Snake draft where each drafter has a salary cap they can't exceed & they are picking players on their current contracts. Who goes first?

2) Auction draft where everyone is trying to put together a team with a certain salary cap & the only limitation is that you need to reserve a minimum salary for each roster spot. Who goes for the most over their irl contract.

I think the answer to both is Giannis tbh.
Probably the best possible approach is one of these. Contracts are artificially held down for both rookie scale and max guys. I suppose that it's nice to know who the most underpaid guys are. When I think of "value" guys, it's guys whose contracts weren't artificially reduced.
 

benhogan

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ex-Max Players only

Playing good defense doesn't get paid. We're witnessing first-hand what losing TL does for the Celtics Defense.

All good value team (no MAX players/rookie contracts) off the top of my head:
Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Dejounte Murray, VanVleet, Marcus Smart, TL, JJJ, Finney-Smith, Poeltl, D White, Melton, Jarrett Allen
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Warriors valued at $7B. Lacob‘s crew bought them 12 years ago for $450M.

In that context (and several others), Steph’s ~$50M annual contract seems like ridiculously good value.
What maybe the most amazing thing about this valuation is that around the time of the sale, there was chatter that Ellison had a better bid than Lacob/Guber but Cohan allegedly strongly disliked Larry so the deal was steered to your guys. Then, on the follow, there were rumors that their group was short money.

Whether any of that is true or not, this investment has ostensibly worked out in spectacular fashion. Imagine getting the opportunity to be an early investor in Steph Curry.
 

HomeRunBaker

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ex-Max Players only

Playing good defense doesn't get paid. We're witnessing first-hand what losing TL does for the Celtics Defense.

All good value team (no MAX players/rookie contracts) off the top of my head:
Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Dejounte Murray, VanVleet, Marcus Smart, TL, JJJ, Finney-Smith, Poeltl, D White, Melton, Jarrett Allen
We’re also witnessing first hand what losing TL does for the offense as well. Obv we need TL in a grind it out playoff series but the spacing that we have today with the lanes wide open for dribble penetration has been the best in the league thus far.
 

lovegtm

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We’re also witnessing first hand what losing TL does for the offense as well. Obv we need TL in a grind it out playoff series but the spacing that we have today with the lanes wide open for dribble penetration has been the best in the league thus far.
You don't think TL with 4 shooters would give similar spacing? I'm imagine Brogdon getting downhill off the PnR with the big terrified of Rob's roll to the rim.
 

benhogan

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We’re also witnessing first hand what losing TL does for the offense as well. Obv we need TL in a grind it out playoff series but the spacing that we have today with the lanes wide open for dribble penetration has been the best in the league thus far.
agreed....PT.Lord's vertical spacing on offense will take the Celtic's offense up a notch. Luke/Vonleh can barely set a screen without getting whistled and just chase loose rebounds on offense.

On another note, are you considering taking a little Memphis exposure off? They play hard, esp Dylan Brooks, every night and the WC is rather pedestrian. They could pile up wins with effort alone.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You don't think TL with 4 shooters would give similar spacing? I'm imagine Brogdon getting downhill off the PnR with the big terrified of Rob's roll to the rim.
It would be much different as a PNR will bring multiple defenses into the space. Tatum has been beating everyone in iso off the dribble without having a big in the paint defending the rim and out ball movement is much better without a low/high post option.Totally different look with TL in the game.
 
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JM3

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Eh...last season Celtics scored 1.0 more points per 100 possessions with RW on the court than they did off (& allowed 4.8 points per 100 possessions less).

The 2 years before they were even better with him on offense (+5.4 & +3.4), but were actually significantly worse defensively (+6.3 & +4.0). All stats per CleaningTheGlass.

There's no real evidence the offense is better without his vertical spacing. To the extent that the offense is better this year, maybe it's related to a Tatum jump or JM offense, which could be highlighted even more with RW back.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Eh...last season Celtics scored 1.0 more points per 100 possessions with RW on the court than they did off (& allowed 4.8 points per 100 possessions less).

The 2 years before they were even better with him on offense (+5.4 & +3.4), but were actually significantly worse defensively (+6.3 & +4.0). All stats per CleaningTheGlass.

There's no real evidence the offense is better without his vertical spacing. To the extent that the offense is better this year, maybe it's related to a Tatum jump or JM offense, which could be highlighted even more with RW back.
Thank you. If Williams is a negative, the data simply doesn't show it.

It really needs to be reiterated that we are still early in the season. This year's data is largely useless do to SSS and perhaps also because teams are still figuring out rotations etc.
 

Jimbodandy

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Eh...last season Celtics scored 1.0 more points per 100 possessions with RW on the court than they did off (& allowed 4.8 points per 100 possessions less).

The 2 years before they were even better with him on offense (+5.4 & +3.4), but were actually significantly worse defensively (+6.3 & +4.0). All stats per CleaningTheGlass.

There's no real evidence the offense is better without his vertical spacing. To the extent that the offense is better this year, maybe it's related to a Tatum jump or JM offense, which could be highlighted even more with RW back.
That's last year's team(s) though, when quite a bit of the offense looked like a JV team swinging it around the circle waiting for the defense to fuck up and give a lane or JT/JB trying to beat his defender and dribbling into help defense. Having a vertical spacing threat was important, because dudes were dribbling past/through defenders right into a rim protector. Now, Brogdon and White are breaking down guys too, and it's a relentless attack on the rim by basically everyone for quarters at a time, and we're ending up with an ungodly number of open threes. I love TL and all, but I'm leery of fucking with that.
 

lovegtm

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That's last year's team(s) though, when quite a bit of the offense looked like a JV team swinging it around the circle waiting for the defense to fuck up and give a lane or JT/JB trying to beat his defender and dribbling into help defense. Having a vertical spacing threat was important, because dudes were dribbling past/through defenders right into a rim protector. Now, Brogdon and White are breaking down guys too, and it's a relentless attack on the rim by basically everyone for quarters at a time, and we're ending up with an ungodly number of open threes. I love TL and all, but I'm leery of fucking with that.
The Brogdon+shooters units are fine with Kornet out there too. TL would get tons of lobs from Brogon with the floor spaced out.
 

JM3

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That's last year's team(s) though, when quite a bit of the offense looked like a JV team swinging it around the circle waiting for the defense to fuck up and give a lane or JT/JB trying to beat his defender and dribbling into help defense. Having a vertical spacing threat was important, because dudes were dribbling past/through defenders right into a rim protector. Now, Brogdon and White are breaking down guys too, and it's a relentless attack on the rim by basically everyone for quarters at a time, and we're ending up with an ungodly number of open threes. I love TL and all, but I'm leery of fucking with that.
Maybe? The Celtics were a better team last year than they have been so far this year (offense a bit better, defense much worse).
 

Jimbodandy

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Maybe? The Celtics were a better team last year than they have been so far this year (offense a bit better, defense much worse).
Word. Even if I'm right about TL's offensive impact being lessened because we have better little guys now, his defensive presence is sorely missed.
 

lovegtm

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Maybe? The Celtics were a better team last year than they have been so far this year (offense a bit better, defense much worse).
I'm not worried about TL's return on offense, but the offense this year has been night and day better. Both on the eye test, and the halfcourt offense numbers, where they're lapping the field by an ungodly margin.
 

JM3

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I'm not worried about TL's return on offense, but the offense this year has been night and day better. Both on the eye test, and the halfcourt offense numbers, where they're lapping the field by an ungodly margin.
They're 3.1 points per 100 possessions better on offense & 7.2 points per 100 possessions worse on defense. You can argue that the offensive jump despite you know, not stopping people on the other end is more impressive I suppose.

How much of that offensive improvement is removing Shredder/JRich/Langford/Nesmith minutes & replacing them with Brogdon/Hauser minutes, though?

If the 220 minutes (22 mpg) that have gone to Vonleh/Griffin/Kornet went to RW instead would the offense have been noticeably worse this year? I doubt it.
 

lovegtm

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They're 3.1 points per 100 possessions better on offense & 7.2 points per 100 possessions worse on defense. You can argue that the offensive jump despite you know, not stopping people on the other end is more impressive I suppose.

How much of that offensive improvement is removing Shredder/JRich/Langford/Nesmith minutes & replacing them with Brogdon/Hauser minutes, though?

If the 220 minutes (22 mpg) that have gone to Vonleh/Griffin/Kornet went to RW instead would the offense have been noticeably worse this year? I doubt it.
I explicitly said, when I replied, that I am not worried about TL hurting the offense. I think he'll help it.
 

JM3

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I explicitly said, when I replied, that I am not worried about TL hurting the offense. I think he'll help it.
Sorry, I quoted you but was replying to the general conversation (which seems to be in an entirely wrong thread for it lol).
 

ManicCompression

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The pre-negotatiated contracts are clearly the best value in the NBA - a Max guy like Jokic has outplayed his contract by a significant margin, as have Luka, Lebron, KD, etc. The incremental value of their skills - being in the 98th percentile instead of the 94th - is worth tens of millions of dollars more because so few can reach those heights. Rookie contracts, like any sport, are one of the best ways to build depth and raise your ceiling because young guys on a capped contract equal salary sustainability combined with upside. Ownership will never let these go in the CBA because if they had to actually bid on either of these kinds of contracts, Zion would be getting paid $150 million a year.

I think where front offices really show their skills is in the rookie-scale extensions. If you can get guys extended past their rookie deal at a reasonable rate, you're uncovering a ton of value. The contracts that come to mind are Jaylen (a max player probably on any other team), OG Anunoby, Mikael Bridges, Time Lord, etc. Choose poorly here and you can end up with Ben Simmons' contract or Michael Porter Jr's.
 

lovegtm

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The pre-negotatiated contracts are clearly the best value in the NBA - a Max guy like Jokic has outplayed his contract by a significant margin, as have Luka, Lebron, KD, etc. The incremental value of their skills - being in the 98th percentile instead of the 94th - is worth tens of millions of dollars more because so few can reach those heights. Rookie contracts, like any sport, are one of the best ways to build depth and raise your ceiling because young guys on a capped contract equal salary sustainability combined with upside. Ownership will never let these go in the CBA because if they had to actually bid on either of these kinds of contracts, Zion would be getting paid $150 million a year.

I think where front offices really show their skills is in the rookie-scale extensions. If you can get guys extended past their rookie deal at a reasonable rate, you're uncovering a ton of value. The contracts that come to mind are Jaylen (a max player probably on any other team), OG Anunoby, Mikael Bridges, Time Lord, etc. Choose poorly here and you can end up with Ben Simmons' contract or Michael Porter Jr's.
Whenever people talk about best NBA contracts, there's a tacit agreement to leave out the prenegotiated rookie and max deals, since everyone agrees they're boring to discuss (for the reasons you mention).

Back to binkie Hauser: what was the maximum deal he could have signed in RFA this year?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Eh...last season Celtics scored 1.0 more points per 100 possessions with RW on the court than they did off (& allowed 4.8 points per 100 possessions less).

The 2 years before they were even better with him on offense (+5.4 & +3.4), but were actually significantly worse defensively (+6.3 & +4.0). All stats per CleaningTheGlass.

There's no real evidence the offense is better without his vertical spacing. To the extent that the offense is better this year, maybe it's related to a Tatum jump or JM offense, which could be highlighted even more with RW back.
Who is talking about last season? I’m referring to this years offense where we are #1 in Efficiency with our best player entering some MVP discussions as he’s able to score easier with the ball movement and spacing……this year. I also stated how crucial TL will be in the playoffs and defensively….not being better off without him.
 

JM3

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Who is talking about last season? I’m referring to this years offense where we are #1 in Efficiency with our best player entering some MVP discussions as he’s able to score easier with the ball movement and spacing……this year. I also stated how crucial TL will be in the playoffs and defensively….not being better off without him.
Why does everyone think I'm arguing with them today? lol

I don't have a time(lord) machine, so any projection on the impact he has on an offense has to at least consider the previous impact he has had on offenses. The question is how much of the jump in offense has to do with new personnel/coach/jump from Tatum & how much has to do with not having TL. I think it's mostly the 1st 3 things & much less the TL thing.