Autry's Army - 2023-24 SU Hoops

bsj

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Lunardi was on ESPN last night and was asked if Cuse would be in good shape if they beat Clemson. He was skeptical, citing their NET rating in the low 80s and saying that they "need to stack wins." Call me a boomer or Luddite, but it seems kind of insane that a team could finish with 21 wins + take fourth place in a major conference and not even be in the conversation. I will freely admit that I've made absolutely no effort to understand NET, and I know they do have a handful of heinous losses, but that overall body of work seems respectable. Of course it's moot if they can't win tonight and/or if they bow out early in the ACC tourney.
They need to beat Clemson and win one ACCT game IMO. I think that gets them in.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Beat Clemson, win one ACCT game, and they finish at 22-11, with some very nice wins on the resume. And yet, as of now, they aren't even in the conversation for being on the bubble, never mind a bubble team for the tourney.
 

The Filthy One

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Beat Clemson, win one ACCT game, and they finish at 22-11, with some very nice wins on the resume. And yet, as of now, they aren't even in the conversation for being on the bubble, never mind a bubble team for the tourney.
ESPN did finally add them to their "More work to do" category in their regular feature on Bubble teams. Pitt is the team that irks me. Syracuse beat them twice -- including at Pitt by double-digits -- they similar records, identical records against Quad 1, but Pitt's two marquee road wins -- at Duke, at Virginia -- essentially have them 40 spots ahead of Syracuse in NET. Maybe a win at Clemson closes that gap, but it seems like NET system so heavily weights key road wins it may not be possible.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Why are road wins *so* valuable? I mean, a win is a win. Road wins are nice, and they're harder to get, but they don't "count" more in the standings. I don't mind a little added weight to them, but not that much that it outweighs everything else you mentioned.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Because it’s really hard to win on the road? Think there’s also a desire to reward teams who schedule challenging road games (although it seems like few teams do).
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Because it’s really hard to win on the road? Think there’s also a desire to reward teams who schedule challenging road games (although it seems like few teams do).
So is it more impressive to win road games at Duke and Virginia but lose twice to Syracuse, apparently a lesser team (once at home), or to win a home game against North Carolina and beat Pitt twice (once on the road)?
 

BosoxFaninCincy

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So is it more impressive to win road games at Duke and Virginia but lose twice to Syracuse, apparently a lesser team (once at home), or to win a home game against North Carolina and beat Pitt twice (once on the road)?
The age old question, which counts more, a great win, or does it hurt more to have a bad loss. To quote Jim Boeheim, I hate losing more than I love winning. I just wonder why a loss at Ga. Tech counts more against us than it does to Mississippi State, Duke, Clemson or North Carolina? Or in other words, why aren't the Yellowjackets in the projected field?
 

ObstructedView

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If you really want to drive yourself nuts, note that Lunardi has St. John's with a good chance of getting in. They're 17-12 with 500 conference record and some pretty ugly losses. But Big East!
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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If you really want to drive yourself nuts, note that Lunardi has St. John's with a good chance of getting in. They're 17-12 with 500 conference record and some pretty ugly losses. But Big East!
Yeah, so this is the thing. SU may very well finish with 21 or 22 wins, fourth in a major conference, with some nice Quad 1 and 2 wins, and not even be in the discussion, but we know there's going to be some 18 win teams get into the tourney with at-large bids.

I'm only partially complaining, because I think SU isn't a great team this year. They're moving in the right direction but they aren't great. And yet....their resume will be better than some teams that get in as at-large squads.
 

CFB_Rules

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For me, the best computer metric in terms of who should get into the tournament is ESPN's "Resume" rankings. It calculates the likelihood that an "average" team could compile the W-L record that a team has based on their schedule strength. Basically, how hard is it to achieve what the team achieved? Right now it has Syracuse on the bubble but in as a 10 seed.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/resume
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Yeah, so this is the thing. SU may very well finish with 21 or 22 wins, fourth in a major conference, with some nice Quad 1 and 2 wins, and not even be in the discussion, but we know there's going to be some 18 win teams get into the tourney with at-large bids.

I'm only partially complaining, because I think SU isn't a great team this year. They're moving in the right direction but they aren't great. And yet....their resume will be better than some teams that get in as at-large squads.
I agree. Their resume this year seems no worse, and probably better, than in prior years when they have been firmly on the bubble and made it; and they are playing fairly well at the end of the year.
 

BosoxFaninCincy

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Go rep the Cuse! I am nervous about this game. As maddening as this season has been on occasion, I like this team and don't want the season to end and then half to sweat our the Transfer Portal. Just one more game. And then one more.
 

BaseballJones

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SU getting drilled by NC State. Can't get any stops. Struggling to score. Just an awful performance so far. Copeland leading the way. Keeps making terrible decisions, getting himself into impossible situations, taking tough shots, turning the ball over. This is the worst of SU.
 

ObstructedView

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SU getting drilled by NC State. Can't get any stops. Struggling to score. Just an awful performance so far. Copeland leading the way. Keeps making terrible decisions, getting himself into impossible situations, taking tough shots, turning the ball over. This is the worst of SU.
Two big games in a row where they seemed completely unprepared. Truly frustrating and embarrassing. Hopefully Copeland can continue to grow (this game was certainly not his best), and they can add some size and shooting for next season.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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On the bright side, commit Elijah Moore scored 67 points on senior day for Our Savior Lutheran. So that's something.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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SU will hopefully lose Taylor, and will probably lose Mintz, and maybe even Copeland. Hopefully Bell and Brown stay and they can rebuild from there.

On a flight the other day I rewatched some of an old 1989 Syracuse-Duke game where SU opened the game by winning the tip and throwing a lob for a dunk by Dave Johnson.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YJKI64YzYo


Those were the days.

-sigh-
 

BosoxFaninCincy

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SU will hopefully lose Taylor, and will probably lose Mintz, and maybe even Copeland. Hopefully Bell and Brown stay and they can rebuild from there.

On a flight the other day I rewatched some of an old 1989 Syracuse-Duke game where SU opened the game by winning the tip and throwing a lob for a dunk by Dave Johnson.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YJKI64YzYo


Those were the days.

-sigh-
Look at them getting after it in man-to-man. I hope that they do not lose Copeland. As maddening as he can be, he just seems like a throwback to the 80's when we had serious swag that often exceeded our results.
 

ObstructedView

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Not a big deal in the grand scheme of things, but I'm mildly surprised that Cuse didn't crack the NIT. Though I'll admit to not having paid a ton of attention to it over the years, it seems to be heavily slanted toward mid-majors. Two Ivies? 16-17 Xavier??
 

ObstructedView

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Not sure if Cuse did, but a lot of teams declined NIT bids to focus on the portal.
Autry said right after the NC State loss that they wouldn't pass it up if invited - "I think any time you get a chance to make a postseason you have to take it." Again, not a big deal - and Cuse certainly has plenty to figure out with Mintz leaving and some big needs to address - but the snub was surprising given their resume.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Syracuse opted out of the NIT.

I think that's dumb, because why not give guys more experience? They clearly need it. But whatever.

And do we know that Mintz is leaving? I haven't seen that announced anywhere.
 

BosoxFaninCincy

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We will never know, but they would have actually won the NIT. That kind of tournament is made for them. Is the only NIT winning squad the Leo Rautins gang? And I would think that playing would at least be a net positive in terms of keeping people around, and showcasing a pretty fun playing style for those mid-major guys who are now the key to the transfer portal.
 

BaseballJones

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We will never know, but they would have actually won the NIT. That kind of tournament is made for them. Is the only NIT winning squad the Leo Rautins gang? And I would think that playing would at least be a net positive in terms of keeping people around, and showcasing a pretty fun playing style for those mid-major guys who are now the key to the transfer portal.
They definitely could have won the NIT. Obviously this team can lose to anyone but yeah, they'd have had a legit excellent shot at it. I agree with your last sentence - that could have netted them some nice transfers possibly.
 

The Filthy One

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I hope Taylor transfers, and I fear that Copeland will. SU will once again be in rebuilding mode.
The word is that Copeland hasn't been attending classes for awhile. The way teams are built now is so different than it was even 20 years ago that it makes it really hard to feel like there's a path to contention outside of recruiting the very top high school players and hoping to get them to gel in year 1. It used to be you could recruit guys in the 75-150 range and develop them into great college players. That's not impossible (it helps if one of those players is your coach's son, for instance) but it's pretty damn hard.

More and more, I'm disinterested in college athletics. I know most of it is Syracuse being down for the past however many years, but I used to watch the NCAA selection show religiously. It was a family tradition as respected as Easter in my house. This was true every year, even seasons when Syracuse was ineligible for the tournament. The day after, I would get up early to go get the USA Today that had all of the info on the teams (the only day of the year I bought a USA Today). It was a consuming passion and something I looked forward to every year. Not only did I not watch the show this year, but I still haven't even opened a bracket to see what's going on. I'll probably fill out a bracket, maybe, but I cannot get excited about the sport at all.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I hear you, @The Filthy One - college athletics holds less luster for me than it used to.

You can still make it work if you don't recruit top of the line guys, but also guys who aren't really good enough to go pro, so that they stay four years and you win with a little less talent but much more cohesion and experience. That can still work. But nowadays even that is harder, because those guys are probably good enough to go play somewhere else for more NIL money. So you gotta find a way to keep them from transferring too.
 

ObstructedView

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Lame, if you ask me.
I’m sure Mintz will leave- imagine someone else will leave a year or two early, too. Sigh.
Agreed. I always hate the petulant tone that accompanies those opt-out statements.

I guess in an era where you know you're going to have to restock a large portion of your roster every season there isn't enough value in playing the extra games and possibly building momentum for next year.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The word is that Copeland hasn't been attending classes for awhile. The way teams are built now is so different than it was even 20 years ago that it makes it really hard to feel like there's a path to contention outside of recruiting the very top high school players and hoping to get them to gel in year 1. It used to be you could recruit guys in the 75-150 range and develop them into great college players. That's not impossible (it helps if one of those players is your coach's son, for instance) but it's pretty damn hard.

More and more, I'm disinterested in college athletics. I know most of it is Syracuse being down for the past however many years, but I used to watch the NCAA selection show religiously. It was a family tradition as respected as Easter in my house. This was true every year, even seasons when Syracuse was ineligible for the tournament. The day after, I would get up early to go get the USA Today that had all of the info on the teams (the only day of the year I bought a USA Today). It was a consuming passion and something I looked forward to every year. Not only did I not watch the show this year, but I still haven't even opened a bracket to see what's going on. I'll probably fill out a bracket, maybe, but I cannot get excited about the sport at all.
This is me, too. The lack of continuity in college rosters makes it really hard to get invested in a team. All these guys will be gone in a year or two, and the “college athelete” is basically an illusion at this point. Can’t blame a kid for trying to get all that he can, but still feels like the system is taking advantage of the vast majority and turning out an increasingly crappy product.
 

BosoxFaninCincy

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This is me, too. The lack of continuity in college rosters makes it really hard to get invested in a team. All these guys will be gone in a year or two, and the “college athelete” is basically an illusion at this point. Can’t blame a kid for trying to get all that he can, but still feels like the system is taking advantage of the vast majority and turning out an increasingly crappy product.
Copeland is going to be really good for someone. I felt the same way about Kadary Richmond. I just hope for his sake it doesn't take stops at four schools to get there. I feel the same way about college sports. When they did the video for Jim Boeheim day, I got so nostalgic for David Johnson, Scoop Jardine, and Louie Orr (RIP) and Dale Shackelford. Like Don Henley intones, "those days are gone forever, I should just let them go."
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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The good news for SU is that Donnie Freeman is great and Elijah Moore just went off for 60+ points in a HS game. So they're adding two dynamic talents - better than what they've recruited for years.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Literally all you can do at this point if you’re a fan is root for the laundry.

Who are these guys? No clue but they’re wearing orange and it says “Syracuse” on the front so I guess they’re “my” guys.

God it sucks. I’m all for student athletes having some freedom to move (they shouldn’t be prisoners while coaches who are under contract can move) but it’s gotten completely out of hand.
 

tims4wins

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Literally all you can do at this point if you’re a fan is root for the laundry.

Who are these guys? No clue but they’re wearing orange and it says “Syracuse” on the front so I guess they’re “my” guys.

God it sucks. I’m all for student athletes having some freedom to move (they shouldn’t be prisoners while coaches who are under contract can move) but it’s gotten completely out of hand.
It is basically like if every player was a free agent on one year contracts every single year.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I do wonder if the solution is that players sign contracts for X number of years. Like they can negotiate them with the schools as they’re being recruited. So like you sign Jack Smith to a 2-year contract worth X amount of NIL money. He can leave only to go pro but he can’t leave for another school unless the school releases him. Of course the school is obligated to keep him for the length of the contract too and can’t just kick a guy to the curb and not pay him either.