2023 Dolphins: Greatest Show on Surf

sodenj5

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Fangio met the media yesterday and a few interesting nuggets:
  • Said he isn’t considering retirement and would coach in Miami for the next decade if everything worked out
  • They hired Chargers DC and former Dolphins safety and coach Renaldo Hill to be the defensive passing game coordinator
  • Had a Belichickian moment where he said his primary objective as the defense is to keep points off the board, first and foremost
  • Had an answer that was in stark contrast to the previous regime when he was asked about blitzing. Said his philosophy on blitzing was essentially when he felt like it. Said that if you’re in the position as a defense where you’re constantly blitzing out of necessity, that’s a bad spot to be in.
Interesting that Hill is taking what, on paper, is a demotion to coach under Fangio again. In reality, it will likely be similar to his current role with the Chargers since Staley is the DC in reality, but Hill is willing to lose the title to continue his work with Fangio.
 

sodenj5

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Byron Jones put this tweet out this afternoon.

View: https://twitter.com/TheByronJones/status/1629540069156483075?s=20


In a follow up tweet, he spoke about his career in the NFL in the past tense. I would feel pretty bad for Byron if his career was over at this point.

A lot of the fan base got on him because of how ambiguous his injury was. We still don’t even really know what his injury was. We only know he had ankle surgery in the off-season and everyone expected him to be ready to start the season.

Don’t know if the procedure went wrong, or if it didn’t have the effect they were hoping for. Seeing a guy that athletically gifted saying he can’t run or jump at 30 years old is a harsh reality check.
 

luckiestman

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Hmmmm….


It seems like NFL guys should work on learning how to fall. These whiplash style falls are devastating. A lot of NBA guys seem to avoid head slams way more than you would think, if you watch them they try to tuck their chins and tuck up(huge incentives: no helmet and hardwood floors). It looks brutal when they fall and you see their head slam the hardwood.
More Judo than MMA. Try to make it instinctual that when you are falling you tuck chin and try to breakfall with an arm. Now, holding the ball won’t allow you do necessarily use your arm. But helmet and awareness should help. Nothing is 100%, Judo bros still get KOd from time to time on mats but some of the falls I see it looks like the player has no idea. NBA is different, true they are not getting tackled but they do moves to protect themselves in a way that makes me think they practice it.
https://amp.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/why-tua-tagovailoa-is-learning-jiu-jitsu-to-help-avoid-concussions


61807
61808
 

sodenj5

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It makes sense. Apart from the Bengals hit where he was slung head first into the ground, the rest of the hits Tua took that resulted in concussions felt fairly innocuous. Like you don’t see most other QBs bouncing their heads off the ground on routine contact.

McDaniel made a fairly valid point in his interview with Florio and Simms. He said as a QB, the only time you get reps taking contact and going to the ground is in live game situations.

He said Tua’s training is specific to him, but they’re also trying to think of ways to help better train all of the QBs to protect themselves outside of live games.
 

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You guys signing Jackson? It's a move that makes a lot of sense if you can swing the cap space (particularly if you're as down on Tua's future for health reasons as I am).
 

sodenj5

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You guys signing Jackson? It's a move that makes a lot of sense if you can swing the cap space (particularly if you're as down on Tua's future for health reasons as I am).
No. I don’t see Jackson coming to Miami because of the cap. He’s pushing for a Deshaun level contract, fully guaranteed. That’s a deal Miami can’t fit in without bastardizing some of the roster.

Miami cutting Byron Jones today, designating him as a post-June 1st cut. Not a shock here, especially after Byron’s tweets. Hopefully he can resume his playing career somewhere else.
 

sodenj5

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View: https://twitter.com/JeffDarlington/status/1633231585016160258?s=20


Makes sense. Tua played at an MVP level when he was healthy. I don’t think there’s a question of Tua’s ability or his fit in the offense anymore, it’s can he stay healthy for a full season?

Also, Mike Pouncey will be signing a one day contract with Miami and retiring as a Dolphin. Pretty cool. Pouncey had Hall of Fame talent at center and sadly lost a decent chunk of his career to injuries.
 

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Miami restructures Tyreek Hill.
View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1634207672982552578?s=20


Miami is freeing up space to try and maximize Tua’s rookie deal. Pushing further all in this year and freeing up the space will allow them to add a few pieces they’re missing.

I don’t expect them to make a huge splash, but they’re absolutely going to be in the market for a tackle, a safety, a cornerback, an off ball LB, and running back.

Miami’s window is now and the next 3 years or so.
 

mauf

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Since the option is for 2024, does the number go up to $29.5M if Tua is a Pro Bowler in 2023?

Edit: The tweet quoted above said Tua is “guaranteed” $23.2M. Which would be a weird way to express “that’s what he’s going to get.”
 

sodenj5

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Makes all the sense in the world. Maybe people will start clamoring over Justin Herbert or Joe Burrow not having their fifth year option picked up already.

Tua answered all the questions surrounding his play and his fit in this offense last season. The only question remaining is can he play a full season, or at least most of it and not miss the playoffs.

The upcoming free agent class in 2024 for QBs is bad and Miami will likely be outside of the range of drafting a QB in 2024. Even if Tua doesn’t play a full season in 2023, he’s still probably going to be their best option in 2024.
 

sodenj5

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For that money, seems like a pretty easy decision.
Daniel Jones is making 40 million dollars. I’ll happily take Tua at 23.2 million.

This also prevents Miami from Giants-ing themselves. If Tua plays at the level he played at last season and plays 17 games, he would make a fortune in the off-season. Miami basically gives themselves this year to see if Tua can repeat his performance and stay healthy.

If he does, he probably gets a big extension, and plays in 2024 at 23.2 and 2025 and closer to 30 before the numbers go up.
 

axx

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Doesn't that seem kind of light for Ramsey? A 3rd round pick and a TE that had one target all season?
 

sodenj5

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Doesn't that seem kind of light for Ramsey? A 3rd round pick and a TE that had one target all season?
Ramsey is getting a little older and is making a ton of money. That being said, I would drive Hunter Long to LA myself if it meant acquiring Ramsey.

Miami really, really going all in. Part of me wonders what they have in mind for Ramsey. Obviously he can play outside corner, but he also plays the big nickel/star role really well too. Would imagine they’re going to use him all over the defense.

Ramsey also apparently wanted to go to Miami.
View: https://twitter.com/jalenramsey/status/1634986193296429057?s=20
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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It feels like he's been in the league for a decade, but he's only 28. No doubt he still has the ability to be a shutdown corner. Going from a non-healty Jones to a potentially motivated Ramsey is a huge upgrade.
 

sodenj5

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Awesome, awesome move for the Dolphins. A motivated Ramsey is an absolute game changer for a defense.
I assumed they were going to reallocate some of that cap space from Byron Jones into a few more mid tier players.

Nope.

Miami’s defense was decimated by injuries last year. They could take a huge leap this season with better health, more talent, and Fangio running the show. Really pumped.
 

sodenj5

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As a Hunter Long fan, I like this move and am happy for him
As a Hunter Long observer for the last two years, I personally think he had every opportunity in the world last season with a new staff and what is probably a perfect scheme for his skill set and was a healthy scratch for about half of Miami’s games.

Maybe he needs a change of scenery, but I recall in training camp McDaniel said the coaching staff had to get on Long because they felt he wasn’t practicing hard enough, and he had a good week of practice after that. Not great if you’re trying to impress a new staff after missing almost your entire rookie year.
 

BaseballJones

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Obviously the offseason is just getting started but so far the Pats have lost Jonathan Jones and the Dolphins have picked up Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey is overrated, but he's still really good.

The gap widens. :-(
 

sodenj5

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Obviously the offseason is just getting started but so far the Pats have lost Jonathan Jones and the Dolphins have picked up Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey is overrated, but he's still really good.

The gap widens. :-(
Ramsey is overrated as in… he’s the second or third best DB in the NFL and not the best? I’m confused.

By any and every metric, he’s a top DB, can play in the slot, can play safety, and is one of the best run defenders pound for pound in the NFL.

He’s never played for Fangio, but Staley ran his system and Ramsey had his best seasons in that scheme.

This is a virtual zero risk move for Miami. He is signed for two seasons. Worst case scenario is he’s gone after next season if he falls of a cliff or gets hurt.
 

BaseballJones

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Ramsey is overrated as in… he’s the second or third best DB in the NFL and not the best? I’m confused.

By any and every metric, he’s a top DB, can play in the slot, can play safety, and is one of the best run defenders pound for pound in the NFL.

He’s never played for Fangio, but Staley ran his system and Ramsey had his best seasons in that scheme.

This is a virtual zero risk move for Miami. He is signed for two seasons. Worst case scenario is he’s gone after next season if he falls of a cliff or gets hurt.
It's a great move for Miami, 100%, no argument from me.

But Ramsey isn't as good as people rate him. His last 3 years' stats:

2020: 71 targets, 36 comp, 50.7%, 354 yds, 5.0 yds/tgt, 2 td, 1 int, 68.6 rating - very good
2021: 98 targets, 58 comp, 59.2%, 624 yds, 6.4 yds/tgt, 3 td, 4 int, 71.1 rating - good, but less good
2022: 91 targets, 57 comp, 62.6%, 659 yds, 7.2 yds/tgt, 5 td, 4 int, 84.5 rating - not so great

He's still a really good player, but his 2022 was absolutely NOT an "elite" season, no matter what All-Pro voters say. A bunch of guys were better than him last year.

But don't get so defensive. He's a great pickup for them. He'll help a lot. Still a terrific player. Just not all-world like he used to be.
 

Cellar-Door

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Ramsey is overrated as in… he’s the second or third best DB in the NFL and not the best? I’m confused.

By any and every metric, he’s a top DB, can play in the slot, can play safety, and is one of the best run defenders pound for pound in the NFL.

He’s never played for Fangio, but Staley ran his system and Ramsey had his best seasons in that scheme.

This is a virtual zero risk move for Miami. He is signed for two seasons. Worst case scenario is he’s gone after next season if he falls of a cliff or gets hurt.
he's a very good CB, top 10 in the NFL for sure, but I wouldn't say most metrics think he's top 3, PFF as some here:
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-final-2022-cornerback-rankings
 

nolasoxfan

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PFF also had him rated as number 1 in 2021 and he played for a pretty terrible Rams team.

I feel pretty good that we’ll see a fully motivated Ramsey this year.
In 2021, the Rams were 12-5 and they won that season’s Super Bowl. I don’t think “terrible” is a good way to characterize that team.
 
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BigSoxFan

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I don’t see how this isn’t a slam dunk for Miami. The guy is really good and plays in a division with Diggs, Wilson, and…um…Tyquan Thornton?
 

Toe Nash

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I think he will help and he could easily bounce back to upper eschelon level, but I don't know why we would assume he dropped off some because he wasn't "motivated" rather than because he has a lot of miles and playing elite CB in 2022 leaves basically no room for error / losing a step. We have seen many elite CBs have to move inside or to safety as they near age 30. The amount of athleticism required to keep up with WRs and not commit penalties is insane.

If someone has watched tape on the Rams last year that would be a useful perspective. I think I only watched part of one game.
 
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Shelterdog

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I think he will help and he could easily bounce back to upper eschelon level, but I don't know why we would assume he dropped off some because he wasn't "motivated" rather than because he has a lot of miles and playing elite CB in 2022 leaves basically no room for error / losing a step. We have seen many elite CBs have to move inside or to safety as they near age 30. The amount of athleticism required to keep up with WRs and not commit penalties is insane.

If someone has watched tape on the Rams last year that would be a useful perspective. I think I only watched part of one game.
I also am not sure why we think a 28 year old famous professional athlete multi millionaire is going to be particularly motivated in Miami; I would be more mojito than man if I lived in Miami full time.
 

sodenj5

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In 2021, the Rams were 12-5 and they won that season’s Super Bowl. I don’t think “terrible” is a good way to characterize that team.
I meant last year, 2022, where they were terrible and he had a down year. His down year was still the third ranked CB according to PFF, FWIW.

I also think they’re going to use Ramsey all over the defense and not strictly as a boundary CB. Between Ramsey and Holland, Miami has 2 DBs that can play all over the place and they can mix and match them in the slot, at safety, and outside depending on the matchup that week.
 

Super Nomario

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I think he will help and he could easily bounce back to upper eschelon level, but I don't know why we would assume he dropped off some because he wasn't "motivated" rather than because he has a lot of miles and playing elite CB in 2022 leaves basically no room for error / losing a step. We have seen many elite CBs have to move inside or to safety as they near age 30. The amount of athleticism required to keep up with WRs and not commit penalties is insane.

If someone has watched tape on the Rams last year that would be a useful perspective. I think I only watched part of one game.
Cornerbacks fluctuate a lot year to year and Ramsey isn't that old (28) so my null hypothesis here would be just kind of a down year from a great player.

If Ramsey does move inside or to safety, he should be terrific there. He played a lot of inside / safety in college, he's a great tackler, he's even a good blitzer. He's got size and can match up on tight ends. I saw someone make the analogy to Charles Woodson's late-career transition in Green Bay and I could definitely see a similar progression for Ramsey; he might even be more valuable doing that than as an outside guy. (Based on PFF alignment stats, it seems like he's already been getting used like that quite a bit for the Rams the last two seasons)

I think the reason he didn't fetch as much in trade as expected is his contract isn't cheap, and it looks like Miami had to sweeten the pot to get him on board, guaranteeing more money. So he's basically making market; he's not a bargain.
 

pdaj

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Jalen Ramsey's really, really good. Is he elite? I have no freakin' clue and don't care, either. After a season where weekly Byron Jones health updates lead to 0 starts and Noah Igbinoghene received meaningful snaps, adding Ramsey to the secondary room with Howard, Needham (we missed you, bro!), Kohou, Crossen, and Trill is impactful. And for a disappointing 3rd-round TE selection and '23 3rd-round pick? It's a no-brainer.

Hopefully Brandon Jones recovery is going well, but I'd love to see Miami add another quality safety option, as well. The Jordan Poyer interest has been well publicized -- and I'm hopeful -- but Miami could be priced out. I know the Dolphins will be looking at LB, as well ... but for the 10th season in a row, one of my top-3 wishes remains the same.

Fix the damn OL! It starts at RT.
 

sodenj5

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Jalen Ramsey's really, really good. Is he elite? I have no freakin' clue and don't care, either. After a season where weekly Byron Jones health updates lead to 0 starts and Noah Igbinoghene received meaningful snaps, adding Ramsey to the secondary room with Howard, Needham (we missed you, bro!), Kohou, Crossen, and Trill is impactful. And for a disappointing 3rd-round TE selection and '23 3rd-round pick? It's a no-brainer.

Hopefully Brandon Jones recovery is going well, but I'd love to see Miami add another quality safety option, as well. The Jordan Poyer interest has been well publicized -- and I'm hopeful -- but Miami could be priced out. I know the Dolphins will be looking at LB, as well ... but for the 10th season in a row, one of my top-3 wishes remains the same.

Fix the damn OL! It starts at RT.
I think they may have put themselves out of the running for a good RT, Poyer and a good ILB.

Would assume they’re probably going to try and bargain shop for some tier 2 and 3 guys and sort of watch today, but I also didn’t think they would ever get Ramsey or Hill last year, so who knows.
 

pdaj

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I think they may have put themselves out of the running for a good RT, Poyer and a good ILB.

Would assume they’re probably going to try and bargain shop for some tier 2 and 3 guys and sort of watch today, but I also didn’t think they would ever get Ramsey or Hill last year, so who knows.
From your keyboard to the football gods ...

It's going to be tough to see Trent Sherfield go while Cedric Wilson and his 8 million dollar cap hit remains. 12 receptions last year.
 

sodenj5

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From your keyboard to the football gods ...

It's going to be tough to see Trent Sherfield go while Cedric Wilson and his 8 million dollar cap hit remains. 12 receptions last year.
Agreed 100%. Sherfield was such a pleasant surprise. You would hope that Ezukanma can step up and take some of those snaps, but who knows.

Regardless, moving forward, Miami is going to need to start really hitting on draft picks to start supplementing the roster. I’m fine with trading 2 firsts for Tyreek and a third for Ramsey. But as guys start to require new deals, if they want to have any type of sustained success, the draft picks have to start contributing.

Greir’s 2021 draft probably saved his career and this rebuild, but 2022 was another complete non factor. Gotta start having these guys play meaningful snaps.
 

nolasoxfan

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I meant last year, 2022, where they were terrible and he had a down year. His down year was still the third ranked CB according to PFF, FWIW.

I also think they’re going to use Ramsey all over the defense and not strictly as a boundary CB. Between Ramsey and Holland, Miami has 2 DBs that can play all over the place and they can mix and match them in the slot, at safety, and outside depending on the matchup that week.
Got it. I agree with your 2022 characterization of the LA Rams.
Ramsey seems like a nice pick up for the Miami defense.
 

JM3

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Jones is obviously getting cut, but right now Spotrac lists the Dolphins as having 3 of the 7 most expensive CBs in the league on an AAV basis (Ramsey #2, Howard #5, Jones #7). It's a fun push your chips in move before they have to pay a lot of $$$ for a QB.

The opportunity cost on a more complete roster over the next couple years will be interesting.

They have several contracts which will be ballooning in '24 which will lead to the kicking of the can further down the road as well...

Tyreke: $12.8m this year, $31.1m next year
Howard: $10.1m this year, $25.9m next year
Tua: $9.6m this year, $23.2m next year
Armstead: $9.2m this year, $20.6m next year
Chubb: $7.5m this year, $26.9m next year

& even the Byron Jones cut looks like it's going to only cost around $4.8m this year & around $10m next year.
 

koufax32

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Didn’t pay much attention to JR when he was in LA, but his time in JAX was consistent in that when things were going well, he was all-world. When adversity hit, he was less than his best and somewhat of a locker room problem. I could see him returning to all-world form or becoming a major problem if/when Tua has to sit out a few games and they hit a skid. Should be entertaining either way.
 

sodenj5

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Mike White said he wanted to come to Miami, he gets his wish and Miami gets their backup QB.

View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1635339147165728768?s=46


Teddy was a massive disappointment, and Miami had to plan strategically as if Tua is going to miss some time because he has every season so far.

White gives me Matt Moore vibes as a guy that can come in and provide a spark and not screw it up too bad for a few weeks.
 

pdaj

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Mike White said he wanted to come to Miami, he gets his wish and Miami gets their backup QB.

View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1635339147165728768?s=46


Teddy was a massive disappointment, and Miami had to plan strategically as if Tua is going to miss some time because he has every season so far.

White gives me Matt Moore vibes as a guy that can come in and provide a spark and not screw it up too bad for a few weeks.
I was surprised at how ... disinterested? ... Teddy seemed to be in football last year. I became a Mike White fan last season. Great arm, accurate, athletic. Has that "energy" you love to see from a backup QB, as well. Seeing him and Skylar compete for the primary backup roll will be fun. 8 million seems reasonable. I wonder if a part of that includes incentives.