2020 MLB Hall of Fame News and Notes ... Is it Dewey's time???

E5 Yaz

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espn: The HoF announced Mon. that 9 former players and pioneering union leader Marvin Miller are on its "Modern Baseball Era" (1970-87) ballot to be voted on 12/8 by a 16-member committee.
Dwight Evans,
Steve Garvey,
Tommy John,
Don Mattingly,
Thurman Munson,
Dale Murphy,
Dave Parker,
Ted Simmons
Lou Whitaker
75% of votes are required for election.
 

E5 Yaz

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The last time this group voted, I believe Simmons and Whitaker each missed out by a single vote
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Whitaker seems like an obvious choice (how did he slip through?) and I'm sentimentally inclined to Dewey, but I'd need an awful lot of convincing for most of the others.

I was going to write "Of course, if Harold Baines is in, then all these guys should be," but it strikes me that most of them had very different careers than Baines - they're mostly guys who were briefly among the best players in the game but who flamed out too quickly to merit HOF inclusion. Basically the opposite of Baines - never close to being the best player at a point in time but hung around long enough to put up stats that still shouldn't get you into the Hall.
 

Cumberland Blues

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Whitaker, Dewey and Bobby Grich are always the first three names that come to my mind when "best players not in the hall" comes up as a conversation. Grich isn't on the list....so Dewey, Lou and Miller would get my vote.
 
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Plympton91

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I’m having a hard time understanding how Whitaker is more deserving than Evans. 8 GG to 3; 2 top 5 MVP finishes (and 4 top 10) to none; same OBP virtually, but Whitaker spent his last 5 years increasingly as a platoon player that helped keep his high while Evans went less than full time his final season ; much higher SLG for Evans.

if Whitaker should be in; Evans should be in first.
 

InstaFace

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HOF Ballot including BBWAA. Returning BBWAA candidates from last year, only 14:

Curt Schilling (8th), 60.9%
Roger Clemens (8th), 59.5%
Barry Bonds (8th), 59.1%
Larry Walker (10th), 54.6%
Omar Vizquel (3rd), 42.8%
Manny Ramirez (4th), 22.8%
Jeff Kent (7th), 18.1%
Scott Rolen (3rd), 17.2%
Billy Wagner (5th), 16.7%
Todd Helton (2nd), 16.5%
Gary Sheffield (6th), 13.6%
Andy Pettitte (2nd), 9.9%
Sammy Sosa (8th), 8.5%
Andruw Jones (3rd), 7.5%

The bottom 3 are certainly candidates to drop off this year, and the top 3 are certainly candidates to get in, although a deeper analysis of the trends suggest that Clemens and Bonds may never reach their threshold. Schilling has done an admirable (for him) job of staying out of the public eye the last few years, he may trend better. All 3, for my part, clearly deserve it, and I'm not sure anyone downballot of that would get my vote.

Newcomers who will get some votes:

- Derek Jeter (72.4 WAR, 337 HOF Monitor where 100 = average HOFer)
- Bobby Abreu (60.0, 95)
- Jason Giambi (50.5, 108)
- Cliff Lee (43.5, 72)

Farther down the list includes Josh Beckett, Alfonso Soriano, Adam Dunn, and various other curiosities and it's-an-honor-to-be-nominateds.

This is the lightest list in a while, the first time in at least half a decade that nobody, even a Big-Hall voter, ought to have trouble getting all the worthy candidates onto their ballot. So likewise, it's clearly the best chance for several of them to either gain a lot of momentum or even have a meteoric rise to clear the 75% bar. You could certainly see that happening with Walker or Vizquel, or even Abreu getting a good first ballot that gets people to re-evaluate him.
 

Marciano490

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Is the argument for Bonds, Manny, Clemens and Sheffield having that much more support over Sosa based on the prevailing opinion on when each started juicing and how much it affected their careers?
 

Max Power

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Ted Simmons is one of the better overlooked players of the last 50 years. From 1972 to 1983 he averaged 144 games, almost all at catcher, and put up a 127 OPS+. He was a high OBP and doubles hitter in an era when those things weren't as recognized for their value. He, Whitaker, and Evans should all be in.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is the argument for Bonds, Manny, Clemens and Sheffield having that much more support over Sosa based on the prevailing opinion on when each started juicing and how much it affected their careers?
I think it has a lot to do with the perceived impact juicing had on his career. He came up as a skinny outfielder with some speed. Then he started bulking up and in one year, he nearly doubled his career HR output. Some might argue he was just a 24 year old maturing and filling out naturally, but there does seem to be a pretty clear line between slap hitter Sosa and slugger Sosa. As opposed to Bonds or Sheffield or Manny, all of whom came up with a bit of pop in their bat even if the bulking up and the bigger outputs came later.
 

Gdiguy

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It's not really those 4 in concert - it's more like Bonds--Clemens-------------------------------------------Manny-Sheffield--Sosa

Which I think makes it much more clear - without steroid issues, Bonds and Clemens are inarguably in the HOF (and both are in the discussion for top 10 if not higher all-time hitters/pitchers respectively).

I don't know that I'd make a huge distinction between Sheffield at 13.6% vs Sosa at 8.5%; both are pretty borderline cases (both are below the average WAR, JAWS, etc for HOF RF's), so it comes down to these more fringe arguments that aren't a huge difference.

Manny is kind of in-between - his JAWS (54.7 vs 53.6 avg), WAR (69.4 vs 65.5) , etc are all pretty close to HOF averages for LF, so it basically matches - without steroid issues I think he's probably pretty easily in, but with them he loses anyone who's in the 'steroids are disqualifying' camp, but isn't a clear enough case to win back the 'ok, I"ll make an exception for the best hitter & pitcher of the last couple decades' voters
 

Ale Xander

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I’m having a hard time understanding how Whitaker is more deserving than Evans. 8 GG to 3; 2 top 5 MVP finishes (and 4 top 10) to none; same OBP virtually, but Whitaker spent his last 5 years increasingly as a platoon player that helped keep his high while Evans went less than full time his final season ; much higher SLG for Evans.

if Whitaker should be in; Evans should be in first.
Maybe it's as simple as Whitaker playing MIF and Evans playing COF?
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Whitaker and Dewey are more deserving than some people already in. I'm looking at you, Harold Baines.

Jeter gets in. Maybe Bonds Clemens and Schilling. Manny will see an uptick in voting for sure as the old guard is starting to cycle out.
 

Ale Xander

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HOF Ballot including BBWAA. Returning BBWAA candidates from last year, only 14:

Curt Schilling (8th), 60.9%
Roger Clemens (8th), 59.5%
Barry Bonds (8th), 59.1%
Larry Walker (10th), 54.6%
Omar Vizquel (3rd), 42.8%
Manny Ramirez (4th), 22.8%
Jeff Kent (7th), 18.1%
Scott Rolen (3rd), 17.2%
Billy Wagner (5th), 16.7%
Todd Helton (2nd), 16.5%
Gary Sheffield (6th), 13.6%
Andy Pettitte (2nd), 9.9%
Sammy Sosa (8th), 8.5%
Andruw Jones (3rd), 7.5%

The bottom 3 are certainly candidates to drop off this year, and the top 3 are certainly candidates to get in, although a deeper analysis of the trends suggest that Clemens and Bonds may never reach their threshold. Schilling has done an admirable (for him) job of staying out of the public eye the last few years, he may trend better. All 3, for my part, clearly deserve it, and I'm not sure anyone downballot of that would get my vote.

Newcomers who will get some votes:

- Derek Jeter (72.4 WAR, 337 HOF Monitor where 100 = average HOFer)
- Bobby Abreu (60.0, 95)
- Jason Giambi (50.5, 108)
- Cliff Lee (43.5, 72)

Farther down the list includes Josh Beckett, Alfonso Soriano, Adam Dunn, and various other curiosities and it's-an-honor-to-be-nominateds.

This is the lightest list in a while, the first time in at least half a decade that nobody, even a Big-Hall voter, ought to have trouble getting all the worthy candidates onto their ballot. So likewise, it's clearly the best chance for several of them to either gain a lot of momentum or even have a meteoric rise to clear the 75% bar. You could certainly see that happening with Walker or Vizquel, or even Abreu getting a good first ballot that gets people to re-evaluate him.
AX ballot (in order)

Bonds
Clemens
Manny
-
Walker
RE2PECT (begrudgingly, partly since Biggio is in)
Kent
Vizquel

-----
Miller
-----

Whitaker
Evans
 

lexrageorge

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Anyone with at least any knowledge of the history of the game would agree that Marvin Miller absolutely deserves to get in. Whether he does or not is an open question.

I'd be OK with Dewey and Whitaker getting in via the committee vote. I had an irrational hatred of Ted Simmons for some reason, but I agree with the arguments above for his inclusion.

My worry is that Don Mattingly or Steve Garvey will get in over any of the above for some obscure reason.

On the BBWAA ballot, I would have:

Jeter
Bonds
Clemens
-----
Schilling (depends how I feel)
----
And, if I'm feeling really generous, Vizquel and Manny. But probably not.

We should have selfish reasons for Bonds and Clemens getting in, as their election would help pave the way for Papi.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Didn't Miller make it very clear before his death that he did not want to be inducted? I know a lot of people believe he should be in but if HE didn't want to be put in, should they ignore his wishes?

I would like to think Manny gets in eventually, but those two PED busts are two more than most guys have, one more than a few others who are also up for consideration. That might be a tough obstacle to overcome, even with the "old guard" fading away.
 

Ale Xander

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Wait. Are you saying that you would only vote for Jeter because Biggio is in the HoF? I know that this is a Red Sox site, but I mean ... jeez.
Sort of. It makes the decision easier to vote for him. Not "only," but partly. Don't want to vote yes, but have no choice given Biggio and the titles and the "fame" as Frye puts it. His Blue Ink would make him a no, though.
 

Spacemans Bong

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Didn't Miller make it very clear before his death that he did not want to be inducted? I know a lot of people believe he should be in but if HE didn't want to be put in, should they ignore his wishes?

I would like to think Manny gets in eventually, but those two PED busts are two more than most guys have, one more than a few others who are also up for consideration. That might be a tough obstacle to overcome, even with the "old guard" fading away.
He didn’t want to be inducted because he was annoyed at not being inducted. He felt, probably correctly, that the management types on the committee were screwing him.

I’ve turned into a huge Big Hall guy since I read a Fangraphs article that pointed out how much easier it was to get in before expansion. In short, we’ve ended up establishing a line that curves sharply upward once the game had black guys and players on the West Coast and Canada and television became a factor. And that’s ultimately dumb. I want to be able to talk about Hall of Famers to my kid who I either saw play or my father saw play, and I can’t do that with Billy Herman. So fuck it, put them all in. Pretty much anybody above 50 WAR deserves serious consideration — I can’t yet go for Rick Reuschel, but is Andy Pettitte a Hall of Famer? Sure. Is dewey a Hall of Famer? Sure, but I’m willing to put Reggie Smith in there too. Let’s get more living Hall of Famers in there — it wouldn’t actually cheapen the Hall because there’s so many guys in there who weren’t as good as Reggie Smith (particularly when you take race and technological advancements into the equation) that the line just isn’t above Reggie Smith’s accomplishments. It’s not.



except Vizquel. He’s the Harold Baines of shortstops.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Clemens
Bonds
Jeter
Schilling
Rolen
Walker
Ramirez
Sheffield
A. Jones
Sosa

I'll loosely predict Whitaker, Murphy, and Mattingly get in via the not-the-VC vote
 

DanoooME

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Vets ballot: Miller, Whitaker, Dewey, Simmons and John.

Tommy John deserves it, even though his pitching is borderline good enough, the fact that he was willing to have an experimental major arm surgery to resurrect his career, it ended up being named after him, and has become so ubiquitous that it's more rare that players don't recover from it than do recover deserves HoF induction. And he was a damn good pitcher for a number of years too.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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We should have selfish reasons for Bonds and Clemens getting in, as their election would help pave the way for Papi.
For whatever reason, Ortiz has been immune to the steroid black mark. Maybe it’s his popularity among media and fans, or the fact that he still played at a high level even after testing was implemented, but I don’t think Clemens and Bonds performance on the ballot effects Papi at all. He will go in on the 1st ballot.
 

Plympton91

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For whatever reason, Ortiz has been immune to the steroid black mark. Maybe it’s his popularity among media and fans, or the fact that he still played at a high level even after testing was implemented, but I don’t think Clemens and Bonds performance on the ballot effects Papi at all. He will go in on the 1st ballot.
I definitely think Papi’s continued strong performance, even improvement after testing was fully implemented is a major difference. Indeed almost his entire productive career came in the testing era. We also don’t know what he tested positive for in 2003; could easily have been amphetamines and not steroids.
 

BaseballJones

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Anyone who doesn't think Derek Jeter is fully deserving of easy entrance into the Hall of Fame is seriously deluded. It's not even a question. The only question is whether he'll be unanimous. I mean....

3,465 hits
.310/.377/.440/.817, 115 ops+ slash line
.308/.374/.465/.838 postseason slash line
72.4 bWAR for his career
14-time all-star
Rookie of the Year
8 times top 10 MVP voting
5 rings
peak season (1999): 134 r, 219 h, 37 2b, 9 3b, 24 hr, 102 rbi, 19 sb, .349/.438/.552/.989, 153 ops+

I mean he had an elite peak, he was great for a LONG time, he put up huge counting numbers, was the most prominent player on a great Yankee dynasty (Rivera was better, but Jeter was more prominent), was a great postseason player, had some iconic moments that are forever etched in baseball memory....

There's not a single legitimate argument that could be made for Jeter not deserving to be an instant, first-ballot Hall of Famer.
 

Comfortably Lomb

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Unlike Clemens and Bonds, Ortiz is personable and well liked. It matters.

I don’t think anyone worth listening to thinks Jeter isn’t a Hall of Famer. Is that one of those weird talking head argument things? Stop watching ESPN.
 

Ale Xander

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Anyone who doesn't think Derek Jeter is fully deserving of easy entrance into the Hall of Fame is seriously deluded. It's not even a question. The only question is whether he'll be unanimous. I mean....

3,465 hits
.310/.377/.440/.817, 115 ops+ slash line
.308/.374/.465/.838 postseason slash line
72.4 bWAR for his career
14-time all-star
Rookie of the Year
8 times top 10 MVP voting
5 rings
peak season (1999): 134 r, 219 h, 37 2b, 9 3b, 24 hr, 102 rbi, 19 sb, .349/.438/.552/.989, 153 ops+

I mean he had an elite peak, he was great for a LONG time, he put up huge counting numbers, was the most prominent player on a great Yankee dynasty (Rivera was better, but Jeter was more prominent), was a great postseason player, had some iconic moments that are forever etched in baseball memory....

There's not a single legitimate argument that could be made for Jeter not deserving to be an instant, first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Never won the MVP. Never close to the the best player in the league, was he even ever the best player at his position? Black Ink of 10. Even Joe Torre has a higher Black Ink. Jeter is a Hall of Famer, but barely. And mainly because he played in NY, his team won, and Biggio is in.
 

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BaseballJones

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Never won the MVP. Never close to the the best player in the league, was he even ever the best player at his position? Black Ink of 10. Even Joe Torre has a higher Black Ink. Jeter is a Hall of Famer, but barely. And mainly because he played in NY, his team won, and Biggio is in.
"Jeter is a Hall of Famer, but barely." LOLOL
 

amRadio

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Bonds
Clemens
Jeter
Walker
Sheffield
Schilling


That feels like a lot of players on one ballot to me though. On the modern era ballot I think Whitaker should get in and Evans and Mattingly are players I would probably also vote for.

Edit: For some reason I thought Whitaker was a lot better in the 90's. I'm not so sure I'd vote for him after looking him up.
 
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Dewey'sCannon

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Brian Kenny was just on MLBN with the Mad Dog talking (mostly Mad Dog screaming) about the Hall of Fame vets vote. Brian Kenny referred to Dewey as the best non-steroids player not yet in the Hall of Fame. Mad Dog was, unsurprisingly, apoplectic.

Kenny said he would vote for Dewey, Munson, Murphy and Miller. He also advocated for Keith Hernandez, who didn't make the list.
 

Danny_Darwin

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Is the argument for Bonds, Manny, Clemens and Sheffield having that much more support over Sosa based on the prevailing opinion on when each started juicing and how much it affected their careers?
Sosa is assumed as a user, but the actual evidence of that is weaker for him than it is for a few of those other names. He never tested positive and isn't named in the Mitchell report. He was reportedly on the 2003 list, but so was David Ortiz and plenty of Sox/Ortiz fans will rush to point out the flaws with the survey testing. He did speak Spanish when testifying before Congress, which everyone assumed was a tacit admission of guilt, which... I am going to leave that alone.

Re: Jeter, what always impressed me about him was his durability. He really only had one prime year where he missed significant time (and then one towards the end). And weirdly, that's one of the few things about his career that people usually don't mention.
 

InstaFace

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"Jeter is a Hall of Famer, but barely." LOLOL
I actually agree with this. If he had the same statistical career in Kansas City for 3rd- and 4th-place teams, this is what a lot of us would say.

You can heavily weight Mystique and Aura in your HOF vote if you want to, but don't act all shocked and superior when others don't.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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I actually agree with this. If he had the same statistical career in Kansas City for 3rd- and 4th-place teams, this is what a lot of us would say.

You can heavily weight Mystique and Aura in your HOF vote if you want to, but don't act all shocked and superior when others don't.
This is patently absurd.

Jeter is 6th in all time hits with 3,465. Every player with more than 2,877 hits (Omar Vizquel at #43) is in the Hall of Fame except for those not yet eligible (Pujols, Beltre, Arod, Ichiro), Rose, Palmeiro and Bonds.

Jeter is 11th in all time runs scored with 1,923. Every player with more than 1,668 (Johnny Damon at #32) is in the Hall except for those not yet eligible (Arod, Pujols), Rose and Bonds.

Jeter is 23rd in all time total bases with 4,921. Every player with more than 4,458 (Fred McGriff at #54) is in the Hall except for those not yet eligible (Pujols, Arod, Beltre, Cabrera, Ortiz, Beltran), Rose, Palmeiro, Bonds, Manny, Sheffield, and Sosa.

Unless you're going to argue that Jeter somehow "broke the rules" like Rose or Bonds, there is absolutely no argument that he doesn't belong, no matter how annoying the media's love affair with him was.
 
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Danny_Darwin

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I actually agree with this. If he had the same statistical career in Kansas City for 3rd- and 4th-place teams, this is what a lot of us would say.
The alleged pro-NY bias isn't really a thing in HoF voting, unless I missed the induction ceremonies for Jorge Posada, Paul O'Neill, Bernie Williams, David Wells, and David Cone. Or unless you are arguing that Rivera also wouldn't be deserving if he spent his career in Kansas City?
 

Ale Xander

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This is patently absurd.

Jeter is 6th in all time hits with 3,465. Every player with more than 2,877 hits (Omar Vizquel) is in the Hall of Fame except for those not yet eligible (Pujols, Beltre, Arod, Ichiro), Pete Rose, Rafael Palmeiro and Barry Bonds.

Jeter is 11th in all time runs scored with 1,923. Every player with more than 1,668 (Johnny Damon) is in the Hall except for those not yet eligible (Arod, Pujols), Rose and Bonds.

Unless you're going to argue that Jeter somehow "broke the rules" like Rose or Bonds, there is absolutely no argument that he doesn't belong, no matter how annoying the media's love affair with him was.
His # of hits is completely irrelevant. He batted 1st or 2nd on a team that routinely had one of the best offenses if not the best. He led the league in PA's FIVE times and was 12th all-time. His OPS was a pedestrian .817.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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His # of hits is completely irrelevant. He batted 1st or 2nd on a team that routinely had one of the best offenses if not the best. He led the league in PA's FIVE times and was 12th all-time. His OPS was a pedestrian .817.
How is any of that his fault? David Ortiz was never MVP, rarely played in the field, never won any Gold Gloves, is somewhere in the middle of the pack in all-time HR, nowhere near 3000 hits, and is still considered by most to be a certain Hall of Fame inductee at some point, even with the did he or didn't he cloud of steroids/PEDs hanging over his head. Not the same player, obviously, but he also played on a team with an offense that was usually at or near the top and he saw a lot more PAs as a result and spent a lot more time on the bases when pitchers walked him rather than give up a dinger. Is he not a Hall of Fame player because he played for the Red Sox or is he a Hall of Fame player because he put up HoF numbers?

Yes, Jeter saw a lot of action and, yes, part of that was a function of his team's offensive prowess but, and this is the key, HE PRODUCED AT THE PLATE WHEN GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY. That's what Hall of Fame players do: be better than a lot of others when put in the same situation. Call it the clutch gene if you want or whatever but Jeter was not a hitter to take lightly at any point in his career, regardless of the score. He was criminally overrated defensively, sure, but let's not forget the big 3 SS of that era were he, A-Rod, and Nomar, none of whom evoked thoughts of Ozzie Smith in the field but mashed at the plate. If you add in Miguel Tejada as the distant 4th on that late-90s, early-00s SS Mount Rushmore, he was still more of an offensive player than defensive. The position has evolved since then to favor defense a little more (or at least a balance of defense and offense), so his 5 Gold Gloves (only a couple of which may have been truly earned on play and not reputation/popularity) only matter so much. He doesn't get an asterisk next to his numbers because his team had the audacity of being competitive every single year that he played. If we start doing that for him, we need to do that for everyone.
 

Ale Xander

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How is any of that his fault? David Ortiz was never MVP, rarely played in the field, never won any Gold Gloves, is somewhere in the middle of the pack in all-time HR, nowhere near 3000 hits, and is still considered by most to be a certain Hall of Fame inductee at some point, even with the did he or didn't he cloud of steroids/PEDs hanging over his head. Not the same player, obviously, but he also played on a team with an offense that was usually at or near the top and he saw a lot more PAs as a result and spent a lot more time on the bases when pitchers walked him rather than give up a dinger. Is he not a Hall of Fame player because he played for the Red Sox or is he a Hall of Fame player because he put up HoF numbers?
Are you trying to compare singles with XBH's?
Ortiz is top-10 all time in XBH.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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He batted 1st or 2nd on a team that routinely had one of the best offenses if not the best.
Most Hall of Famers (non-pitcher division) bat at the top of the order for most of their careers. It probably has to do with them being pretty good, but I don't have enough data to come to a rock solid conclusion yet.

BTW, this is one of the dumbest arguments that has ever been on SoSH.