2020 Dolphins: Aloha

sodenj5

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As we get close to kickoff, it sounds very much like Bills are playing some of their starters for a series or two before pulling them. Some guys like Tredavious White are inactive.

Miami current betting favorites as the news trickles out. Miami wins, and they’re the 5 seed and would play the 4 seed or whoever wins the AFC South (Ten/Indy).

Also keep one eye on the Titans game. Titans need to win to get in and a Houston loss could lock in the third overall pick for Miami.
 

rymflaherty

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Reading tea leaves, I’ve assumed the Bills were going to handle today like an early pre-season game...playing a series or two.

If that winds up the case, it would be nice if the Defense can make a statement early.

Honestly, if the Steelers were playing their guys I’d be more than happy for Buffalo to do the same and let the chips fall how they may...but with the Steelers resting starters, it would be nice if Buffalo do the same.

Should be interesting either way. Especially with the weather, not exactly optimal conditions for a rookie QB trying to make the playoffs, a week after being benched. If Tua can play well today, it will speak well for him on multiple levels...here’s too hoping that’s the case.
 

johnmd20

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Reading tea leaves, I’ve assumed the Bills were going to handle today like an early pre-season game...playing a series or two.

If that winds up the case, it would be nice if the Defense can make a statement early.

Honestly, if the Steelers were playing their guys I’d be more than happy for Buffalo to do the same and let the chips fall how they may...but with the Steelers resting starters, it would be nice if Buffalo do the same.

Should be interesting either way. Especially with the weather, not exactly optimal conditions for a rookie QB trying to make the playoffs, a week after being benched. If Tua can play well today, it will speak well for him on multiple levels...here’s too hoping that’s the case.
I am as shocked as you that the Bills are playing this like it's a playoff game. I guess the team didn't want to fold a division game. But it's surprising.

It is Miami who is playing like it's a pre season game. Very disappointing for the team. Tua just isn't ready.
 

swiftaw

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We are going to lose this game but backdoor our way to the 7th seed and get beaten by the Bills again next week.
 

sodenj5

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Honestly pretty sad showing from all three phases. Offense started out far too conservative again. Defense was giving up plays left and right to the starters, special teams gave up a huge return for a TD.

After the game was nearly out of reach, they let Tua start running the offense and the wheels fall off. Parker fell on the pick 6. Numerous drops from receivers. Tua trying to do too much and getting picked two more times.

Tua clearly needs work, but he also very clearly needs help around him.
 

axx

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Need the Colts to lose to the Jags. That doesn't seem likely.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Colts’ collapse against the Steelers really was very significant for the Dolphins in the end. I still thought the Browns would blow it, but they pulled it out.
 

johnmd20

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Jags with a big stop. I will refuse to believe the Jags will win this game.
I'll say this. My wife is from Cleveland and I was rooting very very hard for the Browns today.(I inherited the Browns, so I happily root for them too) If they lost, and they needed the Jags, I would have no faith unless the Jags were ahead with the clock at 0.

That said, you're alive, and that looked impossible even 60 minutes ago.
 

swiftaw

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Houston winning would be a double gut-punch as it would knock our first rounder down a few picks.
 

sodenj5

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Miami eliminated, but now official owners of the 3rd overall pick and the 18th overall pick.
 

sodenj5

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So, do the Dolphins go QB at 3?
No.

No because Tua isn’t the reason the offense sucked. There’s a lot of room for Tua to grow still, but he needs some semblance of an NFL level supporting cast around him before you can fairly evaluate him.

I’m fine with either drafting Smith or Chase or trading down with Houston’s pick. Draft a RB. Give him an offseason where he isn’t recovering from a career threatening hip fracture.

If he sucks next season and the cast around him, including the offensive playcalling, is significantly better, then you can move on.

Drafting another QB at 3 as a folly. You are throwing them into the same shit situation you just threw one of the most prolific college QBs of all time into and expecting a different result.
 

Mystic Merlin

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So, do the Dolphins go QB at 3?
I don’t see how they do that unless they’ve decided Tua isn’t the guy and they trade him, and I don’t see what they’ve seen that would make them change their evaluation on Tua. They’re also politically committed to Tua; the sell job on moving on from him from a guy who is not Trevor Lawrence would be thorny.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don’t see how they do that unless they’ve decided Tua isn’t the guy and they trade him, and I don’t see what they’ve seen that would make them change their evaluation on Tua. They’re also politically committed to Tua; the sell job on moving on from him from a guy who is not Trevor Lawrence would be thorny.
It's interesting though right? That is a playoff defense. You have another 1st at 18, so if you believe in say...Fields more than you do Tua after what you saw this year you have to consider it. You could get a good return for Tua in a deal still. I mean, what if you have Fields graded ahead of Tua and you can get a top 15 pick this year, a 4th and a future conditional pick? Have to think about it.
 
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I think it would be hard to pass up JaMarr Chase or Sewell, especially with the 18th pick as well.
I wonder if a situation will materialize where they could move back slightly, still get their guy, and still add some picks? (I should probably leave this kind of conjecture to people who know what they're talking about. But I always feel like unless you're picking a QB really high, you're almost always better off moving back a little and adding picks.)
 

sodenj5

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I wonder if a situation will materialize where they could move back slightly, still get their guy, and still add some picks? (I should probably leave this kind of conjecture to people who know what they're talking about. But I always feel like unless you're picking a QB really high, you're almost always better off moving back a little and adding picks.)
I see the Bengals as a good trade partner.

Cincy really needs Sewell. More than Miami. Miami can drop a few spots and likely still get their choice of WR while maybe grabbing Cincy’s 2nd. Miami goes WR at 6, BPA at 18, RB in round 2.

I was previously a fan of taking a RB in the mid 20s if Miami made the playoffs, but take a safety or OLB at 18 and take a RB early in round 2.
 

sodenj5

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Super early but my preference at 3 is

Trade down inside the top 10
Sewell
Chase
Smith
Parsons

Any way you cut it, Miami should be getting another cornerstone type of talent to add to the roster, preferably on offense to give the guy they just picked last year some help.
 

rymflaherty

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I agree with Sodenj5.

Another rookie QB isn’t going to make up for the lack of talent on this offense. They need to use this off-season to upgrade and then make a decision on Tua. If it winds up that he’s not the answer, than fine...And at that point it should be a better situation for someone to step into and succeed.

I think the Tua discussion (or argument) across Dolphins boards is a complete shit show, because taking a definitive stance either way seems foolish. So each side can continually scream louder because there’s shreds of truth in each argument.
Despite my glowing endorsement a while back, I have to admit...he has not played very well. That’s just a fact. But it also seems completely reasonable to say that Tua can improve with more talent around him, with a (hopefully) more normal off-season and knowing that it usually takes most athletes a year of playing before their mentally over the kind of injury that Tua suffered.
I think when you consider everything you have to give him next year and see if he can grow...and now if I have trepidation, I have to admit it’s because he literally can’t grow, I’ve been taken a back at times by how small Tua looks out there, and I’d be lying if I didn’t say my main concern now is that the areas he’s struggled correlate to his stature.

If Tua still struggles next year than fine, move on, but unless you can guarantee me that Fields or Wilson are some sort of All-talent that you won’t have a shot at again, I don’t see how it doesn’t make sense to stick with Tua next year.
 

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Miami should stick it out with Tua. This is a team that should have been a playoff team with him learning the ropes with no training camp and a poor offensive supporting cast. I think Flores needs to pimp Tua’s ride and not make any rash evaluations.

My plan would be to take Sewell at 3 because he looks the part of a franchise OT and you don’t pass on those. Then, I would look to package 18/35 to move back up to get in range for Devonta Smith. Per the chart, those picks should get you to 7 or 8, which is right around where the early mocks have him. Then, in Round 2 or 3, I target a RB like Javonte Williams or Chuba Hubbard.

Thus, entering 2021, Tua would then have his franchise LT, a really good WR corp in Parker/Smith/Grant/Bowden, a nice RB tandem in Williams/Gaskins, and a good defense. All the pieces would be in place for a nice run.
 

luckiestman

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Miami should stick it out with Tua. This is a team that should have been a playoff team with him learning the ropes with no training camp and a poor offensive supporting cast. I think Flores needs to pimp Tua’s ride and not make any rash evaluations.

I don’t know how anyone can have a strong position on this that isn’t internal. If their personnel people think who is left of Wilson/Fields is better they should take them. Gotta watch out for status quo bias.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don’t know how anyone can have a strong position on this that isn’t internal. If their personnel people think who is left of Wilson/Fields is better they should take them. Gotta watch out for status quo bias.
Their decision will obviously tell the story but Tua looks ok to me. He needs more reps and more talent around him. I’d be pretty surprised if Miami has Wilson/Fields rated markedly better than Tua.
 

Cellar-Door

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I agree with Sodenj5.

Another rookie QB isn’t going to make up for the lack of talent on this offense. They need to use this off-season to upgrade and then make a decision on Tua. If it winds up that he’s not the answer, than fine...And at that point it should be a better situation for someone to step into and succeed.

I think the Tua discussion (or argument) across Dolphins boards is a complete shit show, because taking a definitive stance either way seems foolish. So each side can continually scream louder because there’s shreds of truth in each argument.
Despite my glowing endorsement a while back, I have to admit...he has not played very well. That’s just a fact. But it also seems completely reasonable to say that Tua can improve with more talent around him, with a (hopefully) more normal off-season and knowing that it usually takes most athletes a year of playing before their mentally over the kind of injury that Tua suffered.
I think when you consider everything you have to give him next year and see if he can grow...and now if I have trepidation, I have to admit it’s because he literally can’t grow, I’ve been taken a back at times by how small Tua looks out there, and I’d be lying if I didn’t say my main concern now is that the areas he’s struggled correlate to his stature.

If Tua still struggles next year than fine, move on, but unless you can guarantee me that Fields or Wilson are some sort of All-talent that you won’t have a shot at again, I don’t see how it doesn’t make sense to stick with Tua next year.
I lean towards that strategy, but if you have concerns in the building, you aren't getting a premium pick next year. You're getting burnt a bit by your own good fortune here.
Normally, you'd have the 18th pick and it's easy... you're not getting an elite QB talent there likely, so you build around Tua and see what he can do, because you don't have an avenue to get someone better for several years likely.

However, a lot of teams have made the mistake of getting lucky with the chance to draft an elite QB prospect, but playing the "Well we invested in this guy, let's see what we have:" and then never get the chance again. The Jets passing on Mahomes and Watson because they wanted to see what they had in Hack, TEN with Mariota, JAX with Bortles,

An example of the opposite is ARI with Rosen. He was probably a lower rated prospect than Tua, but not that much, he was considered blue chip. He had a rough first year, and they had the chance to get Kyler Murray so they cut bait immediately.

I think Tua was decent enough that they don't make the move, BUT, especially given the rumors that there was a split on him in the building initially, I would bet they have a discussion about it if the QB they like best (or 2nd behind Lawrence) looks likely to be there. It's only smart.
 

Royal Reader

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Were the Jets ever really invested in Christian Hackenberg? He literally never started a game for them.
 

Cellar-Door

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Were the Jets ever really invested in Christian Hackenberg? He literally never started a game for them.
Yeah he was trash, but I believe at the time the argument was... you just used a 2nd on a QB, you can't use a 1st here, gotta give him another year, you knew he was a project.
 

sodenj5

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I agree with Sodenj5.

Another rookie QB isn’t going to make up for the lack of talent on this offense. They need to use this off-season to upgrade and then make a decision on Tua. If it winds up that he’s not the answer, than fine...And at that point it should be a better situation for someone to step into and succeed.

I think the Tua discussion (or argument) across Dolphins boards is a complete shit show, because taking a definitive stance either way seems foolish. So each side can continually scream louder because there’s shreds of truth in each argument.
Despite my glowing endorsement a while back, I have to admit...he has not played very well. That’s just a fact. But it also seems completely reasonable to say that Tua can improve with more talent around him, with a (hopefully) more normal off-season and knowing that it usually takes most athletes a year of playing before their mentally over the kind of injury that Tua suffered.
I think when you consider everything you have to give him next year and see if he can grow...and now if I have trepidation, I have to admit it’s because he literally can’t grow, I’ve been taken a back at times by how small Tua looks out there, and I’d be lying if I didn’t say my main concern now is that the areas he’s struggled correlate to his stature.

If Tua still struggles next year than fine, move on, but unless you can guarantee me that Fields or Wilson are some sort of All-talent that you won’t have a shot at again, I don’t see how it doesn’t make sense to stick with Tua next year.
A big issue with any evaluation of Tua is he was plugged into an offense built for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Parker, Williams, and Gesicki are Fitz’s favorite type of target. A big guy he can chuck a ball up to and give a chance.

They brought Fitz’s old coordinator out of literal retirement to call plays for him.

Build an offense more suited to Tua. Get guys that can consistently separate and turn those 5 yard slants into a 15-20-30 yard gain. Tua is a point guard, not a power forward.

I don’t disagree with taking Sewell, because like BSF said, guys like him are rare, and Miami has the capital to move back up. They’re in an interesting spot and can go a number of different directions. A stark contrast to Detroit last year, who tried to play poker and ended up stuck at 3 and drafting Okudah.
 

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I really like Flores and it was a strong showing by Miami this year. Too bad they didn’t make the postseason, that would have been an extra exciting bonus for Dolphins fans.

I am not on the Tua bandwagon — he seems slow to make reads and get rid of the ball. Again, really too bad that Miami once again did not make the postseason, it would have been fun for Dolphins fans. Too bad.
 

Ale Xander

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Sewell's a generational talent at OL, I think the Jets get an offer (Bengals perhaps to protect Burrow) for the #2 pick they will take to trade down and he won't be there at 3.
 
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My plan would be to take Sewell at 3 because he looks the part of a franchise OT and you don’t pass on those. Then, I would look to package 18/35 to move back up to get in range for Devonta Smith. Per the chart, those picks should get you to 7 or 8, which is right around where the early mocks have him. Then, in Round 2 or 3, I target a RB like Javonte Williams or Chuba Hubbard.
I think you guys should take Chuba Hubbard for the name alone.
 

sodenj5

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Sewell's a generational talent at OL, I think the Jets get an offer (Bengals perhaps to protect Burrow) for the #2 pick they will take to trade down and he won't be there at 3.
Possible. Sewell really makes the top 2-3 picks super valuable this season.

Normally with QBs, like last year, some of them will trickle down to the rest of the top 10. If you want a super talented, super young LT, probably going to have to go up and get him.

Jets are in an interesting spot as you mentioned. I would assume if they’re thinking QB, they take one at 2, even if it’s Wilson instead of Fields. You’re playing with fire if you trade down and hope your guy makes it to 6. Seems far less likely they take Sewell and keep Darnold now that Gase is gone as well.

Assuming Jets do go QB, that puts Miami in a hugely advantageous position. They can sell that pick to someone that wants Sewell, or take him themselves. Not really a wrong answer there.
 

sodenj5

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Edit: deleting the post until either Schefter or Rappoport confirm the Gailey news. It seems like ESPN may have been duped by a fake Schefter account.
 
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sodenj5

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Not a shocking revelation, but it was good to hear it come from Grier himself today.

View: https://twitter.com/flasportsbuzz/status/1346548097200119810?s=21


Flores also said that he expects Chan Gailey to be back as OC next season. That’s assuming he doesn’t retire, or decide he doesn’t want to come back if Fitz doesn’t come back. Basically, he isn’t fired.

This offseason should be spent building the offense and the skill group around Tua and giving him and the team the best shot possible.
 

rymflaherty

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Well now I do think it’s time to move on from Gailey...I have more empathy than many fans when it comes to Chan, the position he was put in and what he had to work with...but still, it always seemed like an odd hire to me and never felt like a long term solution. If the goal was to bring in a professional to build a base, than fine...but I think they have to look beyond that now. This off-season is important for the offense, so it’s key to know what that vision is.

Grier (solo) has been fine, but more than anything else, I believe what’s helped rebuild the defense so quickly is the shared vision and symbiotic relationship between coach and front office. (A stark contract to the past Dolphins failures with muddled hierarchy or changing coordinators and visions yearly)

it’s something that I don’t think gets mentioned nearly enough and it’s why well run teams with stability continue to thrive...Every prospect is a list of pros and cons, and as you move deeper into the draft that list gets longer. If you have a clear scheme and philosophy it becomes easier to identify which pros/cons are most relevant for success.
I have no doubts Flores knows the types of players he needs to run his Defense, and I think we saw the fruits of that this year...
I can only hope they can establish that same vision for Tua and the offense and then can put that plan in motion this off-season.
 

sodenj5

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it’s something that I don’t think gets mentioned nearly enough and it’s why well run teams with stability continue to thrive...Every prospect is a list of pros and cons, and as you move deeper into the draft that list gets longer. If you have a clear scheme and philosophy it becomes easier to identify which pros/cons are most relevant for success.
I have no doubts Flores knows the types of players he needs to run his Defense, and I think we saw the fruits of that this year...
I can only hope they can establish that same vision for Tua and the offense and then can put that plan in motion this off-season.
Agree 100%.

You start to develop a type. And as you move throughout the years, it becomes easier to identify and target your type when the system remains consistent.

Andrew Van Ginkle is a great example of this. He was undervalued in the draft because he wasn’t physically dominant and didn’t do one thing exceptionally well. However he does a bunch of stuff well and can rush the passer and defend the pass and sets a good edge and plays with a high motor. That fits right into the Belichick/Flores wheelhouse for an edge defender.

They do not have a type on offense yet because as of now, there is no continuity. I trust Flores has a vision for what he wants the offense to look like. He has a QB. That part is settled. Now he needs to build around him and surround him and the players on offense with the same level of coaching and instruction they have on defense.
 

swiftaw

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I'm curious, since Tua is a lefty, is right tackle more important for protection purposes than left tackle?
 

sodenj5

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I'm curious, since Tua is a lefty, is right tackle more important for protection purposes than left tackle?
Yes and no. I think it’s far more important having two good tackles instead of a star left tackle and whoever at right tackle. “Blindside” protection is probably a little overrated.

In the instance of Sewell hypothetically playing either LT or RT, I would still vote for him to play LT. He’s a gifted mover in space. You get that guy leading the way on screens and boots for Tua and good things are happening.
 

swiftaw

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I've been a Dolphins fan since 1987, and this is the most excited I've been since the Marino era. It seems like the team and Flores actually have a long term plan. I'm still not 100% sold on Tua (and I wasn't before the they drafted him either), but I trust Flores.
 

sodenj5

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I've been a Dolphins fan since 1987, and this is the most excited I've been since the Marino era. It seems like the team and Flores actually have a long term plan. I'm still not 100% sold on Tua (and I wasn't before the they drafted him either), but I trust Flores.
It is honestly the most cohesive that they’ve looked since Shula left. Like everyone from the top down is rowing in the same direction finally.

Huge amount of credit goes to Ross, Grier, and Flores on that front. Ross put his pride aside and let Grier blow up the roster. Tough to keep cutting those checks and eating all that dead money.

Ross and Grier identified Flores as their guy pre-Super Bowl. That deserves a lot of credit as well. Flores was not exactly a household name before the Pats shut down Sean McVay. Also credit to them for zagging when the league was zigging. Everyone was looking for the next Sean McVay. The next offensive guru to lead their team. Miami looked for a leader and a coach first.

Immense amount of credit goes to Flores and his staff for maximizing the talent on the roster and being steadfast in the pursuit of winning. Flores has said since day one his primary objective is winning. That has remained true. How he handles the building of the offense will be interesting to watch this offseason because it’s not his area of expertise and it’s also been Miami’s biggest weakness in his tenure.

It’s been a long two years, and an even longer stretch before that, but Miami might finally be emerging from the dark purgatory of mediocrity.
 

dwainw

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I've been a Dolphins fan since 1987, and this is the most excited I've been since the Marino era. It seems like the team and Flores actually have a long term plan. I'm still not 100% sold on Tua (and I wasn't before the they drafted him either), but I trust Flores.
1979 for me (Zonk's & Griese's last gasp in a playoff loss to the Steelers is my earliest embedded memory), and I kind of agree with this. Sunday's loss at Buffalo was a gut punch, but only in a knock-the-wind-out-of-me sort of way. By the end of the day I was already feeling a sense of optimism I haven't felt since Marino's prime. I do get worried about all the eggs being placed in the Tua basket, but the methodical construction of the roster around him and the staff who are coordinating that provide me with confidence I never felt during the Philbin/Gase era. Hell, not since Jimmy Johnson.

That said, it will be very interesting to see what they decide to do about the backup QB situation. Fitz sure seems to have a few gallons left in the tank and proved to be a great safety valve this season, but has that ship sailed, particularly with Gailey gone? The period between now and the draft will be fascinating.
 

sodenj5

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That said, it will be very interesting to see what they decide to do about the backup QB situation. Fitz sure seems to have a few gallons left in the tank and proved to be a great safety valve this season, but has that ship sailed, particularly with Gailey gone? The period between now and the draft will be fascinating.
I love Fitz. I love him for the beating he took playing his ass off on a terrible team. I love the maturity and leadership and poise he conducted himself with under very difficult circumstances losing his job to Tua.

That being said, I think Miami and Fitz will likely mutually agree to go their separate ways. I think Fitz wants a chance to compete for a starting position. And I think Tua needs the ability to take control of the team and spread his wings a bit. Fitz is a big personality and a lot of players looked to him to provide leadership. Hard for Tua to come out of Fitz’s shadow and own the team when Fitz is still on the roster.
 

dwainw

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I love Fitz. I love him for the beating he took playing his ass off on a terrible team. I love the maturity and leadership and poise he conducted himself with under very difficult circumstances losing his job to Tua.

That being said, I think Miami and Fitz will likely mutually agree to go their separate ways. I think Fitz wants a chance to compete for a starting position. And I think Tua needs the ability to take control of the team and spread his wings a bit. Fitz is a big personality and a lot of players looked to him to provide leadership. Hard for Tua to come out of Fitz’s shadow and own the team when Fitz is still on the roster.

Yeah, that's part of what I was getting at. I don't disagree, but on the other hand, Fitz is a unique character. He obviously loves the game and loves to compete, but he seems to genuinely enjoy being a mentor, and he certainly demonstrated elite "closer" skills. But the added pressure of operating in Fitz's shadow seems impractical. Or impracticable if you are genuinely committed to developing Tua. Which brings us back to.....who will be the backup? (I'm still not convinced Fitz wouldn't take the job, but it seems like an unlikely scenario. If for no other reason than $$.)
 

rymflaherty

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I've been a Dolphins fan since 1987, and this is the most excited I've been since the Marino era. It seems like the team and Flores actually have a long term plan. I'm still not 100% sold on Tua (and I wasn't before the they drafted him either), but I trust Flores.
I guess that’s the cool thing about this year for me too, I really did start to feel excited and care again. After the past 15 (or whatever) years, I’d been beaten down to a point where I couldn’t help but be cynical, and that eventually turned into apathy (which somehow felt worse) and I questioned if I would ever really feel that way again.
It’s never going to be the same as when I was a teenager, but this year made me realize how much I had missed being excited about the team and them having a future with looking forward too...or maybe it wasn’t all that different from my teenage years, because every around 2:30 or so I was dejected to the point where it was difficult to function the rest of the day lol