2019 NFL: News & Transactions

snowmanny

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I heard Cris Carter awhile back talking about the Cowboys signing their big stars to new deals. Ezekiel will go first, then they will get to Dak. Amari doesn’t mind waiting awhile because he has all that Alabama money.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
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Love it.

He shook up the NFL when they were setting him up to fail. Now the whole world will get to see how good he still is. At least 1/3rd of the league should be inserting him as their starter immediately and anyone with a QB over 35 should be looking to sign him for when they retire.
Seriously?

In Kaepernick’s last season (2016), he ranked 30th in DVOA. Among regular QBs, only two had a worse comp% than Kap (three if you count rookie Jared Goff’s 7 starts). The traditional passer rating metric ranks him more highly (19th), but even on that list, pretty much everyone in the same neighborhood as Kap on that 2016 list was either young then or is cooked now. So even back then, he wasn’t good enough to start for a third of the league’s teams, particularly when you consider that the league’s worst 5-6 teams are going to collectively give most of their reps to under-25 signal callers.

What happened to Kaepernick was wrong and unjust. We’ll never know if Kap could’ve bounced back from a poor 2016 to be a respectable starting QB for a few more seasons. But I think it’s wishful thinking to suppose that he’d be more than a serviceable backup after three years away from the game.
 

Super Nomario

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Seriously?

In Kaepernick’s last season (2016), he ranked 30th in DVOA. Among regular QBs, only two had a worse comp% than Kap (three if you count rookie Jared Goff’s 7 starts). The traditional passer rating metric ranks him more highly (19th), but even on that list, pretty much everyone in the same neighborhood as Kap on that 2016 list was either young then or is cooked now. So even back then, he wasn’t good enough to start for a third of the league’s teams, particularly when you consider that the league’s worst 5-6 teams are going to collectively give most of their reps to under-25 signal callers.

What happened to Kaepernick was wrong and unjust. We’ll never know if Kap could’ve bounced back from a poor 2016 to be a respectable starting QB for a few more seasons. But I think it’s wishful thinking to suppose that he’d be more than a serviceable backup after three years away from the game.
I don't disagree, but how much of that was Kaepernick and how much the supporting cast? The top receivers in that group were Torrey Smith, Jeremy Kerley, and Quinton Patton, who are all out of the league now. Both guards (Zane Beadles and Josh Garnett) are also out of the league. Center Daniel Kilgore is still playing, albeit for the hapless Dolphins. Great tackle pairing (Joe Staley and Trent Brown), and a couple fringy guys in Vance McDonald and Carlos Hyde.

Fun fact: even though it was four years earlier, there are more players from the 2012 49ers still playing in 2019: Staley, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Mike Iupati.

EDIT: and you also had a Chip Kelly offense that lost effectiveness every season.
 

mauf

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I don't disagree, but how much of that was Kaepernick and how much the supporting cast? The top receivers in that group were Torrey Smith, Jeremy Kerley, and Quinton Patton, who are all out of the league now. Both guards (Zane Beadles and Josh Garnett) are also out of the league. Center Daniel Kilgore is still playing, albeit for the hapless Dolphins. Great tackle pairing (Joe Staley and Trent Brown), and a couple fringy guys in Vance McDonald and Carlos Hyde.

Fun fact: even though it was four years earlier, there are more players from the 2012 49ers still playing in 2019: Staley, Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Mike Iupati.

EDIT: and you also had a Chip Kelly offense that lost effectiveness every season.
The Niners were absolutely a shitshow during the interregnum between Harbaugh and Shanahan. But none of us watched that shitshow and thought Kaepernick was the lone bright spot — he was part of the shitshow.

If Kap had been treated the same as other players, some team with an unsettled QB situation would’ve brought him to camp in 2017 to compete for the starting job. Maybe with better coaching and supporting talent Kap could’ve still been effective. The injustice is that we will never know.

Because of the sympathy we all have for Kaepernick, I think we forget we’re talking about a zero-time* Pro Bowler who was a couple years past his prime by the time he became a controversial figure.


*- In fairness, he got snubbed in 2013.
 

Oppo

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While no where near his career year in 2018, Ebron is the second leading receiver for the Colts. Add in Hilton always being hurt, that offense going to be even more one dimensional.
 

DeadlySplitter

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the good news for the Colts is the #6 seed is wide open. the bad news is they aren't as likely to make noise beyond that this year. really had to win last week and did not
 

tims4wins

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the good news for the Colts is the #6 seed is wide open. the bad news is they aren't as likely to make noise beyond that this year. really had to win last week and did not
Some years the wild card games look awesome on paper. Like this year looks like the NFC is going to be awesome. But in the AFC it's really, really hard to see a wild card team winning in KC or Houston (or possibly Baltimore).
 

cshea

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FWIW, I think the 5 seed is up for grabs too (for anyone, not just the Colts). The Bills remaining schedule is pretty daunting:

@ Dallas (Thursday)
Vs. Baltimore
@ Pittsburgh
@ New England
Vs Jets

They are probably dogs in 4 of 5. They did well to bank 8 wins before this stretch, but getting to 10 will require them to pull off an upset.
 

RedOctober3829

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FWIW, I think the 5 seed is up for grabs too (for anyone, not just the Colts). The Bills remaining schedule is pretty daunting:

@ Dallas (Thursday)
Vs. Baltimore
@ Pittsburgh
@ New England
Vs Jets

They are probably dogs in 4 of 5. They did well to bank 8 wins before this stretch, but getting to 10 will require them to pull off an upset.
They can win Thursday at Dallas. After that, they are dogs against Baltimore and New England for sure. At Pittsburgh is a toss up. Jets at home they should be favorites.
 

InstaFace

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Their defense is legit, and Josh Allen isn't nearly as bad (passer rating of 86) as we sneeringly thought during his first (rookie) season in Buffalo (PR of 68). Much higher utilization this year, and his INT% cut in half (2.3% currently).

Those games are likely to be close at the worst, and their offense will have a chance to win them. Arguably, they should be favored in Pittsburgh, except that the size of the respective betting fanbases will shift most of the money to PIT just all on its own.

Interestingly, DVOA kinda hates Buffalo, ranking them 25th overall, with their offense worse than their defense is good. Maybe it's me who's overrating them.
 

wilked

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FWIW, I think the 5 seed is up for grabs too (for anyone, not just the Colts). The Bills remaining schedule is pretty daunting:

@ Dallas (Thursday)
Vs. Baltimore
@ Pittsburgh
@ New England
Vs Jets

They are probably dogs in 4 of 5. They did well to bank 8 wins before this stretch, but getting to 10 will require them to pull off an upset.
. I did a quick sim with projected point spreads and have them at
0 wins: 9%
1 win: 27%
2 wins: 35%
3 wins: 22%
4 wins: 7%
5 wins: 1%
 

InstaFace

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hah, 5 wins. Running the table, including the return visit to NE, would actually pry the division from the Pats' (cold, dead) hands, too. We joke about "wide open" but if they truly won out, and the Pats lost to one of KC or HOU in the next two weeks (the only realistic losses) on top of vs BUF, then both teams would both finish 13-3, split head-to-head, 5-1 in the division, each have one loss in non-divisional common games (BAL for NE, CLE for BUF), and it would then go to Conference record - Which BUF wins, as one loss of theirs was to PHI while NE's other would be in-conference to KC or HOU.

If the Bills hold serve on Thursday at JerrahWorld and NE gets upset in Houston next Sunday, it'll be the first time that a Divisional opponent controlled their own destiny for the division title all the way into December since the 2010 pasting of the Rex Ryan Jets 45-3 on MNF Dec 6th (both teams entered 9-2, Jets with the previous H2H win).
 

Seels

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$19m a year for a right tackle that turns 30 in a few months is stupid as shit.

Even if his game translates just fine to LT, this is a bad dumb contract.
 

InstaFace

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Fun AFC West facts:

1) The Oakland Raiders have a -83 point differential - that's almost 7 points per game - and yet are 6-6.

2) Since its founding in 1960, 3 of the current 4 teams share the distinction of 'most division championships'; the Chargers, Broncos and Raiders all have 15 each. Kansas City (incl the 1962 Dallas Texans) has 11. Seahawks also won it in 1988.

3) In their inaugural season in 1976, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, somehow, competed as part of the AFC West (Seattle took their place the next year). Although given that they went winless, "competed" might be too strong a word. The Cincinnati Bengals also spent their first two seasons (68-69) in the West, only slightly less absurdly.
 

DaubachmanTurnerOD

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Nick Foles was benched yesterday, likely for the rest of the year.

Not especially remarkable, other than how irksome it is that a career journeyman played out of his gourd first 60 minutes one fateful February.
 

BigSoxFan

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Nick Foles was benched yesterday, likely for the rest of the year.

Not especially remarkable, other than how irksome it is that a career journeyman played out of his gourd first 60 minutes one fateful February.
Eh, literally any QB was tearing our crap defense to shreds that night.
 

InstaFace

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We can laugh that Jacksonville is paying Foles $88M over 4 years, over half of which is guaranteed (this year and next), for his age 30-33 seasons, and even in 2021 he'll have $12.5 dead cap if cut.

Dude was in a great situation in Philly, and frankly I think Philly may have picked the wrong QB. But Foles has been ass for the Jags, no doubt.
 
Nick Foles was benched yesterday, likely for the rest of the year.

Not especially remarkable, other than how irksome it is that a career journeyman played out of his gourd first 60 minutes one fateful February.
For fans of a team that has won six Super Bowls this century, your bitterness can be off-the-charts annoying sometimes.
 

54thMA

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For fans of a team that has won six Super Bowls this century, your bitterness can be off-the-charts annoying sometimes.
In fairness, Foles was horrible in the first playoff game that year vs your Falcons; he played out of his mind vs the Vikings and then the Patriots, the latter thanks to the officials during that game deciding they were not going to call offensive holding on lineman for either team.

So in retrospect, the Falcons gave the Eagles the best game during that three game run; in fact, by all rights they should have beaten them.
 

Cotillion

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In fairness, Foles was horrible in the first playoff game that year vs your Falcons; he played out of his mind vs the Vikings and then the Patriots, the latter thanks to the officials during that game deciding they were not going to call offensive holding on lineman for either team.

So in retrospect, the Falcons gave the Eagles the best game during that three game run; in fact, by all rights they should have beaten them.
And they also changed the catch rule prior to the game without telling anyone.
 

luckiestman

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Would you take him over Gase?

I don't mind Gase. I might eventually end up having a problem with him. My problem with the Jets is the owner and the roster construction.

My problem with Riverboat is that he seemed fine with Cam taking a beating. Otherwise, I thought he was solid.
 

snowmanny

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For fans of a team that has won six Super Bowls this century, your bitterness can be off-the-charts annoying sometimes.
I would agree with you that these complaints from New England fans would be justifiably characterized as annoying...if it wasn’t so patently obvious that with just a few fairer bounces here and there the Patriots would have 11 rings. It really grinds my gears.
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
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I don't mind Gase. I might eventually end up having a problem with him. My problem with the Jets is the owner and the roster construction.

My problem with Riverboat is that he seemed fine with Cam taking a beating. Otherwise, I thought he was solid.
This sounds about right to me. Though in fairness to Rivera, Cam seems to have the sort of personality that maybe you subconsciously want to see him take a beating, even if he is your guy.
 

dcmissle

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I would agree with you that these complaints from New England fans would be justifiably characterized as annoying...if it wasn’t so patently obvious that with just a few fairer bounces here and there the Patriots would have 11 rings. It really grinds my gears.
And a few bounces the other way and we’re talking about zero rings and this team being the Buffalo Bills II, except worse because the Pats have been to more Super Bowls.
 

InstaFace

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This sounds about right to me. Though in fairness to Rivera, Cam seems to have the sort of personality that maybe you subconsciously want to see him take a beating, even if he is your guy.
He's the rare player who has a legitimate gripe about the NFL officials treating him fairly. Aside from him and Gronk, I'm not even sure who's in third.

As for Rivera, he does indeed seem to have one thing that most NFL coaches lack, which is the courage to take risks in various forms. But if you look at the available and readily-crunchable stats, he's closer to middle-of-the-pack in things like 4th down decisions...


Rotoworld puts him 10th behind much-bigger and more-celebrated names (and Mike Zimmer, too). I might take Reich, O'Brien, Shanahan and McDermott ahead of him as well, but even so that puts him top-half of the league. Sporting News puts him 16th behind names like Quinn, Arians and Nagy, which I think is based on a few flashes in the pan rather than a long-term observation of his ability to build a roster, get the most out of them, and manage things on game day. They also put Kitchens 20th, and LaFleur 21st, before either had coached a game. So that's suspect.

Anyway, Rivera would be an upgrade for a great many franchises, some of whom are expected to have openings. I agree he won't be unemployed for long, and frankly he might end up as a consultant to some other team during the balance of the season.