2016 lineup

[Saints Rest]

In the 1b thread, Geoduck wanted some new baseball things to talk about and I agree.

So let's talk lineups.

I think the first 5 are likely set:
Betts -- RF
Pedroia -- 2B
Ortiz -- DH
Ramirez -- 1B
Bogaerts -- SS

Maybe X moves to 3rd but it seems like that will be Ortiz' spot for this his final year.

And I think it's probably safe to guess that JBJ starts the season in the 9 spot (and playing CF).

It's the 6, 7, 8 spots that I think are up for debate.

My guess:
Sandoval -- 3B
Castillo -- LF
Swihart -- C
My reasoning is based on what I think Farrell will do, not what I would do. I think he'll let the veteran start the season in the higher spot and make the youngsters earn their way up the order.

Thoughts?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think X bats 3rd.

Betts
Pedroia
Bogaerts
Ortiz
Ramirez
Sandoval
Castillo
Swihart
JBJ

 

[nvalvo]

My guess:
Sandoval -- 3B
Castillo -- LF
Swihart -- C

Unless things really change with his retooled right-handed swing, Sandoval is much better against RHP. Castillo is great against LHP. Swihart better against RHP. So even with all the switch-hitters, there are respectable platoon-split reasons to set it up that way.

 

[RIrooter09]

Isn't X a better fit at lead off than Betts, with his high OBP and relatively low SLG?

X
Betts
Pedroia
Ortiz
Hanley
Sandoval
Castillo
Swihart
JBJ

 

[geoduck no quahog]

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Isn't X a better fit at lead off than Betts, with his high OBP and relatively low SLG?

I think no, but for different reasons that don't have to do with the raw numbers.

First, Betts has shown he really likes hitting leadoff, and does so very well. This is the most important reason to leave well enough alone.

Second, Bogaerts developed into a different kind of hitter in 2015 than he had been in 2014 and earlier, and it's documented how much he worked to revamp his approach with the Sox hitting coaches to do so. There's no clear way to know (before the ST games start) whether he's going to continue to sacrifice power for contact, nor how much the confidence in his new approach's contact ability will allow him to "let it rip" in more game situations this season.

Third, while not locking Bogaerts into hitting like he did in 2015, his K% rate and spray chart from 2015 looks precisely what a traditionalist manager would want of a RHH 2-hole hitter - a balanced approach willing to sacrifice power in order to go with the outside pitch.

Assuming the Indians start Kluber on opening day:

1. R - RF Mookie Betts
2. R - SS Xander Bogaerts
3. R - 2B Dustin Pedroia
4. L - DH David Ortiz
5. R - 1B Hanley Ramirez
6. S - 3B Pablo Sandoval
7. R - LF Rusney Castillo
8. S - C Blake Swihart
9. L - CF Jackie Bradley

This will hopefully be the same lineup that rolls out against Carrasco.

Against Salazar, I fully expect Farrell to swap out Castillo for Young (batted ball profiles vs. Salazar's GB/FB rate), and Swihart for Hanigan.

I'm sure both Travis Shaw and Brock Holt will have their day next season, but I just don't think it will be in the opening series, unless someone else gets hurt during March.

 

[RoDaddy]

I'm not crazy about about the first 3 hitters being right handed. It may very well happen but my hope is that JBJ finally puts it all together and eventually is moved up to the 2-hole as the potential is there based on his outstanding OBP in the minors and his short but amazing offensive surge last year. He'd have to get off to a very stong start batting ninth this year to be moved up but if he does:

Betts
JBJ
X
Papi
Hanley
Pedey
Sandoval or Swihart
Sandoval or Swihart
Castillo

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I think there's a greater chance Farrell writes Panda (or even Swihart) into batting 2nd, than there is JBJ getting a real chance at the top of the order at any time this season.

Heck, JBJ's first got to hit his way out of the platoon role ghetto that Farrell says he's planning to start the year with, before he'll legitimately have a shot to bat any where higher than 8th in the order.

Not that JBJ's good walk rate and decent power wouldn't make him an excellent #2 hitter if he could sustain the necessary contact rates for a .265+ BA. But even if he does, I just don't see him getting the chance in 2016.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Safe prediction for basic lineup (with 2015 OPS RHP vs LHP):

Betts (.815 vs .842)
Pedroia (.788 vs .835)
Bogaerts (.737 vs .892)
Ortiz (1.008 vs. 703)
Ramirez (.716 vs .710) (.869 vs .801 in 2014)
Sandoval (.744 vs .465) (.824 vs. .563 2014)
Castillo (.516 vs .817)
Swihart (.757 vs .603)
Bradley (.791 vs .918)

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think one of Pedroia or Bogaerts gets pushed down to the 5 spot to avoid the RHH logjam. And I think Swihart bats last to take pressure off him and to make it easier for Farrell to be consistent with the order (since the other catcher, whether it's Hanigan or Vazquez, will probably bat ninth).

So I think vs. RHP:

Betts
Bogaerts
Ortiz
Ramirez
Pedroia
Sandoval
Bradley
Castillo
Catcher of the day

and vs. LHP:

Betts
Bogaerts
Ortiz
Ramirez
Pedroia
Sandoval
Young
Castillo
C.O.D.

You could push Bogaerts down instead of Pedroia, but I like Pedroia between Hanley and Panda.

 

[Saints Rest]

I think one of Pedroia or Bogaerts gets pushed down to the 5 spot to avoid the RHH logjam. And I think Swihart bats last to take pressure off him and to make it easier for Farrell to be consistent with the order (since the other catcher, whether it's Hanigan or Vazquez, will probably bat ninth).

So I think vs. RHP:

Betts
Bogaerts
Ortiz
Ramirez
Pedroia
Sandoval
Bradley
Castillo
Catcher of the day

and vs. LHP:

Betts
Bogaerts
Ortiz
Ramirez
Pedroia
Sandoval
Young
Castillo
C.O.D.

You could push Bogaerts down instead of Pedroia, but I like Pedroia between Hanley and Panda.

Has Farrell said anything about his planned usage of catchers? Will Hannigan attach to a particular pitcher? Will they platoon? Or will it be something else?

 

[Plympton91]

Can anyone explain why Betts and his mediocre, scattershot arm should be in RF while Castillo and the miniature cannon attached to his right shoulder are in LF? This makes very little sense to me.

 

[Lowrielicious]

Can anyone explain why Betts and his mediocre, scattershot arm should be in RF while Castillo and the miniature cannon attached to his right shoulder are in LF? This makes very little sense to me.

It's because your assumptions on their arms is wrong. Their arms are similar, betts has better range and rusney played the wall very well in his time in LF.

 

[iayork]

It's because your assumptions on their arms is wrong. Their arms are similar, betts has better range and rusney played the wall very well in his time in LF.

He's parroting older scouting reports. When Betts was a prospect, there was some concern about his arm strength -- it's one reason they projected him at second, rather than short -- but it's something he worked specifically on (widely reported in the last off-season). Current evaluations, as well as the eye test, say that Betts has a decent arm. I don't think it's as good as Castillo's, and certainly it's weaker than Bradley's (but so is everyone's), but in almost any other outfield Betts would have one of the better arms. Castillo and Betts could swap LF and RF and I'd be fine with that, but there's a lot of sense to leaving them in the positions they're getting used to rather than switch them on that one very tenuous basis.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

FWIW, the lineup for today's game against BC is:

1. Betts
2. Pedroia
3. Bogaerts
4. Ramirez
5. Sandoval
6. Young
7. Swihart
8. Craig
9. Bradley

So kudos to BMHH and geoduck....

 

[Pedro 4 99MVP]

Here's what I would do:
1. Betts
2. Pedroia
3. X
4. Papi
5. Hanley
6. Swihart
7. Panda
8. Castillo
9. JBJ

However, I think Farrell will give the veteran (Panda) the benefit of the doubt and hope he rebounds this year. He will probably put Panda 6 and Swihart 8.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

So I know batting order doesn't matter all that much according to various studies on the issue, but I was still somewhat surprised to read that the Red Sox were considering batting Xander fourth as a way to break up the three top-of-the-lineup RHH (Bogaerts, Betts, Pedroia). This feels like overthinking it to me.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

This move puts Ortiz in the spot where the 3rd most runners are on base for the batter. Also, The Book makes it clear your 2 best hitters should be hitting 2/4 and you 3rd best leadoff, with a case made for your 5th best hitter batting 3rd.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

So I know batting order doesn't matter all that much according to various studies on the issue, but I was still somewhat surprised to read that the Red Sox were considering batting Xander fourth as a way to break up the three top-of-the-lineup RHH (Bogaerts, Betts, Pedroia). This feels like overthinking it to me.

Why?

It seems to me that the obvious 1-6 order to start the year is some variation on [Betts, RHH, Ortiz, RHH, RHH, Sandoval] where the first RHH is either Pedroia or Bogaerts and the last two are Ramirez plus whichever of Bogaerts and Pedroia didn't make the cut for #2. As I said above, I would probably go with Bogaerts for #2, and Ramirez and Pedroia for 4-5, but Pedroia #2 and Bogaerts-Ramirez 4-5 is a perfectly legit approach. Not sure why it's overthinking.

 

[grimshaw]

Originally posted in the David Murphy thread but fits better here and newsworthy that Farrell is starting Holt over Castillo.

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/493313/holt-to-begin-season-as-bostons-primary-lf?ls=roto:MLB:topheadlines

 

[johnnywayback]

Also, if Castillo and Young are in the lineup at the same time, Castillo will play CF and Young LF, which makes a ton of sense.

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/03/29/david-price-officially-named-opening-day-starter-clay-buchholz-to-pitch-game-2/

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Also, if Castillo and Young are in the lineup at the same time, Castillo will play CF and Young LF, which makes a ton of sense.

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2016/03/29/david-price-officially-named-opening-day-starter-clay-buchholz-to-pitch-game-2/

That article says "Farrell explained that he viewed both Jackie Bradley Jr. and Mookie Betts as everyday players in the Red Sox outfield, with the combination of Chris Young, Rusney Castillo and Brock Holt rotating through in left field." Which is a bit different from the rotoworld link that says Holt will be the primary LF against RHP. Doesn't sound like LF is going to be a strict platoon, but that all 3 guys will get time there, with Young in either LF or CF against every lefty starter. I would hope Holt isn't the starter against every RHP, he's a solid player but has zero power and tends to wear down after 400 or so at-bats. Holt starting in LF once of twice a week would be fine, but not 5 or 6 times a week, which could happen if it was a straight righty-lefty platoon.

I would have liked to have seen Shaw get some LF time in spring training, it's the perfect time to get him some experience out there. (Farrell did send Shaw out to play LF in a big league game last year without any practice, so maybe he will do that again this year.)

It's not hard to see a scenario against RHP where we are better off with Sandoval at third and Shaw in LF than we are with Shaw at third and Holt in LF. It all depends on how each guy is looking, but it'd be good to find out how Shaw looks in LF in case we might be better off playing him there at some point. It's not that we will need the LF coverage, as we have plenty of options there, but more that it might be a good place to get Shaw's bat in the lineup if Sandoval turns out to actually be a viable baseball player at some point this season.

Might not even matter-- we wouldn't need to bother if Shaw doesn't hit.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I would have liked to have seen Shaw get some LF time in spring training, it's the perfect time to get him some experience out there. (Farrell did send Shaw out to play LF in a big league game last year without any practice, so maybe he will do that again this year.)

That one game Shaw played in LF was an emergency, no other choice situation. The bench was short that night to begin with (just three bench players), then Hanley was hit on the hand by the line drive and Pedroia got hurt running the bases.

With five guys on the roster who have significant OF experience already (as opposed to the four that night last year), it would take something catastrophic to press Shaw into service like that again.

 

[InsideTheParker]

Sorry if this has already been posted, but I don't see it. MLBN says that Farrell announced that BROCKHOLT will start the season in LF. What, if anything, does this tell us about the possibility of Castillo being traded?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Sorry if this has already been posted, but I don't see it. MLBN says that Farrell announced that BROCKHOLT will start the season in LF. What, if anything, does this tell us about the possibility of Castillo being traded?

I think it says nothing about Castillo. Holt getting the starting nod on Opening Day could be as simple as since they're going up against a pretty good RHP in Kluber, they want to stack the lineup with lefties where they can and he's the best LHH man for the job (on the roster). Could also be a "reward" for his all-star season last year...wouldn't be the first time someone got an Opening Day start less on merit (not saying he isn't worthy) and more on stature.

 

[Strike4]

I think it says nothing about Castillo.

It's being widely interpreted as a statement about Castillo: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-find-rusney-castillo-a-new-home/

 

[RoDaddy]

Revisiting the lineup 1/5th of the way through the season, my original hope back in February was that JBJ could move up to the top of the lineup if he got off to a fast start and he has. So I wonder if his batting second is in the near future to avoid the 3 straight RH hitters? At the least, this type lineup could be used to give Pedey days off (and I hope they do soon so he doesn't wear down)

Betts
JBJ
X
Papi
Pedey
Hanley/Shaw
Hanley/Shaw
Holt
Vasquez

 

[AB in DC]

At some point you gotta think about dropping Betts (.291 OBP, 87 wRC+), down to the 6 or 7 slot.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Revisiting the lineup 1/5th of the way through the season, my original hope back in February was that JBJ could move up to the top of the lineup if he got off to a fast start and he has. So I wonder if his batting second is in the near future to avoid the 3 straight RH hitters? At the least, this type lineup could be used to give Pedey days off (and I hope they do soon so he doesn't wear down)

Betts
JBJ
X
Papi
Pedey
Hanley/Shaw
Hanley/Shaw
Holt
Vasquez

With Pedey's oppo emphasis this year, I want him near the top, setting Papi's table. There's a pretty good argument to be made that the offense ain't broke, so don't fix it. But if we had to shake things up, what about this? It's L/R balanced and bunches our best current hitters at the top.

JBJ
Pedey
Papi
X
Shaw
Betts
Hanley
Holt
Vasquez

 

[grimshaw]

There probably aren't too many lineups with 4 guys at 5'10 and shorter. Benintendi is 5'10'' as well.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Lineup order is generally thought to be relatively unimportant to scoring runs to sabermetric analysis.

But this year, it's even more unimportant than usual, because the Sox have been so abnormally consistent in plating runs from their lineup, aside from their best and worst hitters. So I'll use that least sabermetric of stats to show why...

#1 :
Ortiz (192 OPS+): 29 RBI

2-8:
Bradley (144 OPS+): 21 RBI
Shaw (137 OPS+): 18 RBI
Bogaerts (128 OPS+): 14 RBI
Pedrioa (123 OPS+): 17 RBI
Holt (112 OPS+): 19 RBI
Ramirez (105 OPS+): 17 RBI
Betts (88 OPS+): 18 RBI

#9 :
Catcher (58 OPS+): 5 RBI

Now please understand, I don't actually think RBI is important. But in this case, I think it makes a useful shorthand, to show how effective the Sox hitters (non-catchers, at least) have been as a unified whole.

The only "run producer" that stands out as head-and-shoulders above the rest is Ortiz, and it's only as close as it is because of last night's explosion by JBJ. Papi's 29 RBI would extrapolate to 147 RBI over the course of the season, at its current rate. The rest of the positional regulars (non-catchers, at least) are bunched from 14-21 RBI, extrapolating to 71-106 RBI. The catchers as a unit have hit 5 RBI, which extrapolates to 25 RBI.

OPS+ also shows how consistent the lineup is, because there's just about as much deviation between Ortiz at the top and the #2 hitter in Bradley (48 points), as there is between Bradley and the #8 guy in Betts (56 points). The dropoff at catcher is extreme, although Swihart's OPS+ of 89 fits right in with the rest of the group, and if he were penciled into the lineup 5-of-7 days it would probably turn this very potent unit into a 2003-style offensive juggernaut.

So, whether using saber-friendly OPS+ or saber-scorned RBI, there's no wrong answer.

Aside from ensuring the tandem of Vazquez/Hanigan bats 9th, there's no way to arrange these guys that they won't be generating bucket-loads of runs.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Maybe better for the Ortiz thread, but geez, Papi has a legit shot at both Darrell Evans' age 40 "record" of 34 HRs and Winfield's 108 RBIs. (As an aside, Davey Lopes stole 47 bases at age 40. That's ridiculously impressive.)

 

[AB in DC]

Lineup order is generally thought to be relatively unimportant to scoring runs to sabermetric analysis.

Maybe so, but I'm glad we're starting to see JBJ in the #8 slot and the catcher #9 rather than vice versa.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Maybe so, but I'm glad we're starting to see JBJ in the #8 slot and the catcher #9 rather than vice versa.

Not sure I agree - only for the following:

Betts (theoretically) protects Bradley in the #9 spot. Holt appears to need the least protection in the lineup (based only on eyeballing his bat control). Bradley on base in front of Betts, Pedroia and Bogaerts keeps speed in front of speed (Vazquez or Hanigan clog the bases in front of those guys, but I guess he also clogs the bases in front of Bradley). The catcher batting 9th means 4 RHH in a row after 3 LHH, which just doesn't feel right (the counter being that many LHRP are Loogies and they're not used to pitching against 3 hitters in a row...or 4 out of 5 if they're brought in to face Ortiz).

On the other hand, like so many have said, lineup construction doesn't seem to matter.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Nobody should be worried about Vazquez or Hanigan clogging up the bases.

 

[AB in DC]

Worrying about "protecting" a batter or another "clogging up the bases" feel like over-thinking. The important thing is to put good hitters at the top and bad hitters and the bottom.

Just look at the sixth inning last night. Hitters #3-#7 load the bases with two out, bringing up the #8 batter. JBJ comes up in that slot and hits a grand slam. If Vazquez were batting eighth then the Sox probably don't score at all. OK, the difference isn't always going to be that stark, but why even put yourself in a situation where the catcher comes to the plate more often than JBJ?

 

[dbn]

The important thing is to put hitters hitting where they are most comfortable.

 

[RoDaddy]

I think another lineup tweak is needed as HanRam is stumbling. And I still don't like that a .400 OBP guy (JBJ) is low in the order, or that we start we 3 straight RH hitters. At this point in the season, I like:

Betts
JBJ
X
Papi
Pedey
Shaw
Hanley
Swihart/Young/Holt (Swihart and Holt are out for now)
Vasquez

 

[luckysox]

I think another lineup tweak is needed as HanRam is stumbling. And I still don't like that a .400 OBP guy (JBJ) is low in the order, or that we start we 3 straight RH hitters. At this point in the season, I like:

Betts
JBJ
X
Papi
Pedey
Shaw
Hanley
Swihart/Young/Holt (Swihart and Holt are out for now)
Vasquez

Maybe they'll move Hanley down if he keeps looking this lost, but otherwise, I wouldn't expect much change. They have the best offense in the league, and I can't imagine they're going to replace Pedroia in the 2-hole. It's where he hits, and it's working, so why mess with it? The 3 righties to start has not hurt them - those 3 righties happen to be awesome.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Without looking it up (what? I'm driving!!!) Shaw has also appeared to be scuffling lately.