Search results

  1. R

    2019 NCAA Pool

    Right--sorry, I was unclear. In this sense I was speaking about NCAA brackets more broadly, not necessarily ones with Murphy's bonus points structure. My meta-point was just that I think people already have a broad understanding that there are statistical best practices in selecting a bracket...
  2. R

    2019 NCAA Pool

    I'll defer to your point about diminishing returns; it was not the correct term for me to use. It's more that there is a non-negligible opportunity cost, and while your EV will be higher if you pick all those upsets, the sample size of 1 tournament each year, plus the (nearly) zero-sum prize...
  3. R

    2019 NCAA Pool

    Okay, this is enough to get me--an almost-never-posting lurker--to chime in! Dan, this is by far my favorite pool and I would be so sad to see it go! The Needler is making good points about EV of these early round games, but he's overstating the case a bit. Choosing every 12 and 13 to win is a...
  4. R

    2017 NCAA Pool

    That would make sense, yeah? But I have no idea how I would go about doing that. Any tips?
  5. R

    2017 NCAA Pool

    I'm one of 4 people who can possibly win the pool, so I'll be paying close attention! Doing some quick and dirty calculations using 538's percentages, each person's chance to win breaks down roughly as: C. Steinhardt ~ 48% -- All this person needs is for Oregon to beat UNC in their Final Four...
Top Bottom