Yet another Pats draft poll--Your preference, 5 weeks out

nattysez said:

Here are all the QBs drafted with the second or third pick in the draft in the past 10 years or so. Quite a trend to buck (aside from Stroud): CJ Stroud (drafted 2d, 2023), Trey Lance (drafted 3d, 2021), Sam Darnold (drafted 3d, 2018), Blake Bortles (drafted 3d, 2014), Zach Wilson (drafted 2d, 2021), Mitch Trubisky (drafted 2d, 2017), Carson Wentz (drafted 2d, 2016), Marcus Mariota (drafted 2d, 2015)

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So,
Good
Bad
Jets
Jaguars
Jets
Bad / Bears
Good for a bit then bad
OK

Like I said, some bad teams reached for guys like Wilson Bortles and Darnold because they needed a QB. I don't think that tells us anything about how the players in this draft will play -- if Maye stayed in school another year he would be #1 next year and ditto Daniels / Williams. Did you read my post or just repeat what you said originally, because I refuted exactly what you said.

NoXInNixon said:

I'd take that deal in a heartbeat.

Drafting a top 5 QB into a dumpster fire never helps to put the dumpster fire out, it just adds more fuel. The Pats are a dumpster fire right now. Trade back, get lots of assets, then take a QB toward the bottom of the first round or top of the second, sit him for two years and build up the team around him.

I'm super high on Maye, so if somehow he falls to #3, I could see drafting him, but I'm worried they'd start him right away which would be a mistake.

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I am in full agreement with every single word in this post.

Tony C said:

followed up wiht a google search and among various unconvincing answers someone on reddit ("jackelfrink"...so he knows jack, I guess) wrote the following:
I have as much confidence in jackelfrink as I do my QB analysis, but...fwiw, kind of makes sense, anyway.

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The one I found suggests it means "donkey shit," since a male donkey is a Jack. Somewhere there is a dictionary of shit, which includes jackshit, bullshit, ratshit, horseshit and dogshit

Last few posts perfectly encapsulate the situation. None of us know shit. Let us all pray they get it right, whatever that means.

nattysez said:

I'd ask for next year's second as well.

The thing that's bothering me is the TERRIBLE track record of early-drafted QBs. The article below is mind-blowing -- the chances that all 3 QBs drafted 1-3 will be above-average is close to zero. I'd much prefer to get more swings at the ball than roll the dice that pick #3 will be the franchise's savior.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-ranking-every-quarterback-class-since-2000

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The track record of non first round QBs is exponentially worse.

The “trade down to build the team but also take a QB in the top 2 rounds” is the worst possible outcome

If the plan is to build around an unknown QB, using one of those acquire picks to overdraft a mediocre QB prospect like Nix or Penix isn’t going to help build the team. In that scenario, say 2 1sts and a 2nd, you’re using one pick on a non top 10 prospect (let’s say the Minnesota deal). Likely missing out on Alt, Nabers, Harrison, Odunze, 4 QB’s and possibly the best defender or tackles 2-3. So you get WR 4 or OT 3/4, then take a marginal QB. That’s not building the team around anything.

Take the QB at 3. Failing that, trade down to 6 or so where you can still get an elite prospect and a haul which you can use in future years to move up for a QB

Voted to trade back. My concern is that the #3 QB -- very likely Maye -- just isn't good enough. He's not remotely close to the athlete Josh Allen is. His arm is above average but not noteworthy. He's not going to be a running QB in the league. I could go on. Fine, maybe he has the chance to be a top 10 QB, but I happen to think that chance is small. Admittedly, I don't know shit, but he looks like Mitch(ell) Trubisky.

I'm also not persuaded by the arguments that say, in one way or another, there's no other path to a franchise caliber QB than picking one at #3. How did Chicago find itself in a position to draft Williams? Ahh, right.

#3 represents enormous draft capital, and Minnesota looks poised to pay through the nose. I'd rather take their picks -- 11, 23, a 2025 #1, and another sweetener -- and build out our roster. If we draft Maye, it will be Maye + a dumpster fire of a roster, and if Maye doesn't pan out -- which is the most likely scenario, particularly given the talent he'll likely be playing with -- we're left with the dumpster fire. And we wasted all that capital.

Next year maybe Minnesota's #1 is in the top 3, or maybe we package two #1s and move up for our QB. And if that QB doesn't pan out -- as he probably won't -- then at least we're not left with a dumpster fire.

Bowser said:

Voted to trade back. My concern is that the #3 QB -- very likely Maye -- just isn't good enough. He's not remotely close to the athlete Josh Allen is. His arm is above average but not noteworthy. He's not going to be a running QB in the league. I could go on. Fine, maybe he has the chance to be a top 10 QB, but I happen to think that chance is small. Admittedly, I don't know shit, but he looks like Mitch(ell) Trubisky.

I'm also not persuaded by the arguments that say, in one way or another, there's no other path to a franchise caliber QB than picking one at #3. How did Chicago find itself in a position to draft Williams? Ahh, right.

#3 represents enormous draft capital, and Minnesota looks poised to pay through the nose. I'd rather take their picks -- 11, 23, a 2025 #1, and another sweetener -- and build out our roster. If we draft Maye, it will be Maye + a dumpster fire of a roster, and if Maye doesn't pan out -- which is the most likely scenario, particularly given the talent he'll likely be playing with -- we're left with the dumpster fire. And we wasted all that capital.

Next year maybe Minnesota's #1 is in the top 3, or maybe we package two #1s and move up for our QB. And if that QB doesn't pan out -- as he probably won't -- then at least we're not left with a dumpster fire.

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This is way too low on Maye. He’s a very good athlete with a very good arm, and is a big, strong guy. His concerns are related to trying to do too much, scrambling too much, and making bad decisions under pressure. Which all sounds reasonable for an elite talent at a bad program with no o-line.

No team in the NFL has won big consistently without strong QB play. Sure you might put together the perfect roster and steal a SB behind a historic D, or some luck/weak competition, etc… but a good roster won’t win until you put it around a QB that moves the needle.

And trading the opportunity to hit on QB doesn’t mean you will hit on the picks you trade him for. Drafting is hard at every position, the good roster assumption isn’t a guaranteed alternative to the shot at a good QB.

There are 3 very strong QB prospects and you have pick 3. Just take the elite QB prospect.

Bowser said:

Voted to trade back. My concern is that the #3 QB -- very likely Maye -- just isn't good enough. He's not remotely close to the athlete Josh Allen is. His arm is above average but not noteworthy. He's not going to be a running QB in the league. I could go on. Fine, maybe he has the chance to be a top 10 QB, but I happen to think that chance is small. Admittedly, I don't know shit, but he looks like Mitch(ell) Trubisky.

I'm also not persuaded by the arguments that say, in one way or another, there's no other path to a franchise caliber QB than picking one at #3. How did Chicago find itself in a position to draft Williams? Ahh, right.

#3 represents enormous draft capital, and Minnesota looks poised to pay through the nose. I'd rather take their picks -- 11, 23, a 2025 #1, and another sweetener -- and build out our roster. If we draft Maye, it will be Maye + a dumpster fire of a roster, and if Maye doesn't pan out -- which is the most likely scenario, particularly given the talent he'll likely be playing with -- we're left with the dumpster fire. And we wasted all that capital.

Next year maybe Minnesota's #1 is in the top 3, or maybe we package two #1s and move up for our QB. And if that QB doesn't pan out -- as he probably won't -- then at least we're not left with a dumpster fire.

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Not particularly comparable given they traded for a pick of a pretty bad team knowing that a generational QB prospect was in the next draft, and another (Maye) prospect generally considered better than any in the draft they traded down in (and the one prior) was also available. Trading for picks in the next year's draft when you already know there are great QB prospects is very different than trading for future picks with no particularly good QB prospects in the pipeline.

Ahead of his pro day on Wednesday, is there a chance the Bears pass on Williams?
They are the Bears, and who knows, they might subscribe to Orlovsky's views.

Bowser said:

Voted to trade back. My concern is that the #3 QB -- very likely Maye -- just isn't good enough. He's not remotely close to the athlete Josh Allen is. His arm is above average but not noteworthy. He's not going to be a running QB in the league. I could go on. Fine, maybe he has the chance to be a top 10 QB, but I happen to think that chance is small. Admittedly, I don't know shit, but he looks like Mitch(ell) Trubisky.

I'm also not persuaded by the arguments that say, in one way or another, there's no other path to a franchise caliber QB than picking one at #3. How did Chicago find itself in a position to draft Williams? Ahh, right.

#3 represents enormous draft capital, and Minnesota looks poised to pay through the nose. I'd rather take their picks -- 11, 23, a 2025 #1, and another sweetener -- and build out our roster. If we draft Maye, it will be Maye + a dumpster fire of a roster, and if Maye doesn't pan out -- which is the most likely scenario, particularly given the talent he'll likely be playing with -- we're left with the dumpster fire. And we wasted all that capital.

Next year maybe Minnesota's #1 is in the top 3, or maybe we package two #1s and move up for our QB. And if that QB doesn't pan out -- as he probably won't -- then at least we're not left with a dumpster fire.

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Drake Maye isn't remotely close to the athlete Josh Allen is? Huh? He's done more in college with this legs than Allen (and much more with his arm, in a much better conference). His arm is full on legit and arguably the strongest of anyone in this class.

He's not going to be a running QB in this league? He'll likely put up a sub 4.6 40 at his pro day (he's already been timed at 4.6 previously without training for it). He only look like Mitchell Trubisky because they wear the same college uniform. Maye is more than 2 inches taller, is faster, has a stronger arm.

This was Josh Allen at the combine in case people forgot:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9FZ91SNJLQ

I want to push back against what I see as artificial constraints that are limiting our QB conversation. For example, the following reasons have been given as to why the Pats must draft a QB at #3:

1. The Pats will not have a chance to draft a top QB prospect in the near future.
2. Top QB prosects have the highest hit rates, particularly those considered top 3/5 prospects overall.
3. The Pats can't trade back and pick a QB because he might get drafted by another team.
4. Next year's crop of QB prospects are trash.

However, we can't say 1, 3 or 4 are definitively true. They might be true, or truer than not, but they shouldn't be taken as a given. And yet they're presented as if they're mic-drop points in an argument.

As for 2, this makes intuitive sense, but is it true? Someone must have offered the following list, but as I can't find it, here's where PFF's top 15 QBs from last season were drafted:

1. Allen, 7 (3rd QB drafted)
2. Mahomes, 10 (2nd)
3. Lamar, 32 (5th)
4. Dak, 135 (8th)
5. Stafford, 1 (1st)
6. Purdy, 262 (9th)
7. Tua, 5 (2nd)
8. Hurts, 53 (5th)
9. Cousins, 102 (8th)
10. Goff, 1 (1st)
11. Herbert, 6 (3rd)
12. Love, 26 (4th)
13. Stroud, 2 (2nd)
14. Geno, 39 (2nd)
15. Lawrence, 1 (1st)

Over the last 10 years, 4 of these QBs have been drafted 1-5 and 4 were drafted 6-32. Overall, over the last 10 years, 17 QBs have been drafted 1-5 and 15 were drafted 6-32. The hit rate is nearly identical.

I'm not suggesting this is hard science. Probably the numbers would change if I looked at other measures of QB effectiveness or other seasons, but I have a job.

Anyway, it's worth considering why so many top 5 drafted QBs don't pan out. I'm sure it's been said, but I'll repeat: they're being drafted into shitty situations. And the Pats, right now, unfortunately, are the poster child for a shitty situation.

I have gone back and forth on what I want the Pats to do, especially if Maye is unavailable (drafting him would be my best case scenario). I still keep thinking that sitting whatever QB they draft for a year is the prudent thing to do since the Pats offense is so bad. I posted that on another board and some people got really upset by it. But it just seems to me that there are plenty of rookie QBs who sit for all/most of the first year and are better for it, and plenty of ones thrown into the fire on bad teams (per @Bowser 's point) and just get destroyed.

astrozombie said:

I have gone back and forth on what I want the Pats to do, especially if Maye is unavailable (drafting him would be my best case scenario). I still keep thinking that sitting whatever QB they draft for a year is the prudent thing to do since the Pats offense is so bad. I posted that on another board and some people got really upset by it. But it just seems to me that there are plenty of rookie QBs who sit for all/most I expect of the first year and are better for it, and plenty of ones thrown into the fire on bad teams (per @Bowser 's point) and just get destroyed.

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I expect Brissett to start most/all of next year, and play well enough to earn himself a multiyear deal wherever he is headed next.

I don't think you make a decision on sitting a guy or not until the games start. Draft him, bring him into camp, see how he adjusts and competes, and then make your choice based on the "best interests of the team", now and going forward.

@Bowser, I don't think the Pats are the poster child for a shitty rookie QB situation. They had one truly shitty year based on Mac falling apart. They have a defense that will keep them in games and prevent one dimensional play calling. They need OL and WR talent, but they have a competent coaching staff in place on the offensive side that has a track record in the NFL. They are just a regular old shitty team that needs to bounce back and rebuild. I can't think of a team in a spot similar to the Pats in recent years that passed on drafting a QB. It would be unprecedented in the modern NFL. (Chicago had Fields and the prospects were not as highly regarded last year - and probably wish they had drafted Stroud and traded Fields last year; Detroit never had a chance to draft a QB of the caliber of Williams/Maye/Daniels during their recent rebuild; SF traded up to get Lance, etc.) They may do it anyways, but I really doubt it. You can draft the QB and put the rest of the team together in parallel. The 100 subsequent personnel decisions will all bear on his success.

Bowser said:

I want to push back against what I see as artificial constraints that are limiting our QB conversation. For example, the following reasons have been given as to why the Pats must draft a QB at #3:

1. The Pats will not have a chance to draft a top QB prospect in the near future.
2. Top QB prosects have the highest hit rates, particularly those considered top 3/5 prospects overall.
3. The Pats can't trade back and pick a QB because he might get drafted by another team.
4. Next year's crop of QB prospects are trash.

However, we can't say 1, 3 or 4 are definitively true. They might be true, or truer than not, but they shouldn't be taken as a given. And yet they're presented as if they're mic-drop points in an argument.

As for 2, this makes intuitive sense, but is it true? Someone must have offered the following list, but as I can't find it, here's where PFF's top 15 QBs from last season were drafted:

1. Allen, 7 (3rd QB drafted)
2. Mahomes, 10 (2nd)
3. Lamar, 32 (5th)
4. Dak, 135 (8th)
5. Stafford, 1 (1st)
6. Purdy, 262 (9th)
7. Tua, 5 (2nd)
8. Hurts, 53 (5th)
9. Cousins, 102 (8th)
10. Goff, 1 (1st)
11. Herbert, 6 (3rd)
12. Love, 26 (4th)
13. Stroud, 2 (2nd)
14. Geno, 39 (2nd)
15. Lawrence, 1 (1st)

Over the last 10 years, 4 of these QBs have been drafted 1-5 and 4 were drafted 6-32. Overall, over the last 10 years, 17 QBs have been drafted 1-5 and 15 were drafted 6-32. The hit rate is nearly identical.

I'm not suggesting this is hard science. Probably the numbers would change if I looked at other measures of QB effectiveness or other seasons, but I have a job.

Anyway, it's worth considering why so many top 5 drafted QBs don't pan out. I'm sure it's been said, but I'll repeat: they're being drafted into shitty situations. And the Pats, right now, unfortunately, are the poster child for a shitty situation.

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One thing I think people often combine is "bad surrounding talent is a bad situation" and I don't think that's totally true. Most top picks are going to teams with bad talent, having bad talent is how you lose enough games to draft high. The major difference to me isn't bad talent, it's bad management. I look at CIN. They had garbage talent when they drafted Burrow, but they were well managed and added talent over the next 2 years. Tua went to a terrible roster but they changed a bunch of things after getting a new coach and he jumped.

Deathofthebambino said:

Drake Maye isn't remotely close to the athlete Josh Allen is? Huh? He's done more in college with this legs than Allen (and much more with his arm, in a much better conference). His arm is full on legit and arguably the strongest of anyone in this class.

He's not going to be a running QB in this league? He'll likely put up a sub 4.6 40 at his pro day (he's already been timed at 4.6 previously without training for it). He only look like Mitchell Trubisky because they wear the same college uniform. Maye is more than 2 inches taller, is faster, has a stronger arm.

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Both Joe Milton and Caleb Williams have better arms than Maye, and JJ McCarthy probably does, too. Milton hit 62mph at the combine and McCarthy 61. Last year Anthony Richardson was 60. I'd be surprised if Maye threw this hard. Maybe you're making a distinction between arm strength and arm talent? He certainly has a good arm, but it could be that his long, slow release makes it look worse than it is.

And I could certainly be wrong about Maye as a runner, but he's at least 15 lbs lighter than Allen, and he doesn't strike me as sudden, agile, or powerful. Josh Allen is a force and runs NFL dudes over. I haven't seen Maye do that in the ACC, but he's young and might develop.

Eddie Jurak said:

I expect Brissett to start most/all of next year, and play well enough to earn himself a multiyear deal wherever he is headed next.

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I hope this is the case for everyone involved.

Bowser said:

Next year maybe Minnesota's #1 is in the top 3, or maybe we package two #1s and move up for our QB. And if that QB doesn't pan out -- as he probably won't -- then at least we're not left with a dumpster fire.

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This year, the Vikings had 9 games started by one of Josh Dobbs/Nick Mullens/Jaren Hall. Justin Jefferson missed 7 games. Their running backs were Cam Akers and Alexander Mattison...

They ended up with the 11th pick.

Maybe they get in the top 3, but that's very unlikely.

If you trade with the Vikings for 3 1st round picks you are likely getting 2 picks around the 11 range and the 23rd pick. None of those picks are good enough to get a top QB.

EDIT: Also it's not controversial to say that Maye arguably has the strongest arm in this draft class. It's right up there with Milton/Caleb/etc

Auger34 said:

If you trade with the Vikings for 3 1st round picks you are likely getting 2 picks around the 11 range and the 23rd pick. None of those picks are good enough to get a top QB.

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blah blah blah Mahomes blah blah blah Brady blah blah blah

The only thing that can be said for certain is that the 11th pick isn't likely to get you the "top QBs" considered in a particular draft class, unless you have a EJ Manuel year or it's 1983.

Beyond that, saying anything is a certainty is nonsense.

Maybe "shitty" is an overstatement, but the talent on offense is severely lacking.

On the O Line, it looks like Onwenu is being paid to play RT, where his pass pro leaves much to be desired. Which puts Okorafor or a R2 draftee (probably) at LT. Not the worst O line in the league, but below average for sure, assuming no injuries. Our depth at OT is troubling.

Our WRs are a bunch of 3s and 4s, none of whom can win on the boundary. Our TEs are, what would you say, unremarkable? Our RBs are collectively average? More importantly, there's nothing about this offense that would concern a defense. No size, no speed. Nothing for a rookie QB to lean on.

I'm hoping we're holding onto cash because we're going to trade for Higgins or Aiyuk. And I'm optimistic about AVP, but then again I was also optimistic about BOB.

Bowser said:

I want to push back against what I see as artificial constraints that are limiting our QB conversation. For example, the following reasons have been given as to why the Pats must draft a QB at #3:

1. The Pats will not have a chance to draft a top QB prospect in the near future.
2. Top QB prosects have the highest hit rates, particularly those considered top 3/5 prospects overall.
3. The Pats can't trade back and pick a QB because he might get drafted by another team.
4. Next year's crop of QB prospects are trash.

However, we can't say 1, 3 or 4 are definitively true. They might be true, or truer than not, but they shouldn't be taken as a given. And yet they're presented as if they're mic-drop points in an argument.

As for 2, this makes intuitive sense, but is it true? Someone must have offered the following list, but as I can't find it, here's where PFF's top 15 QBs from last season were drafted:

1. Allen, 7 (3rd QB drafted)
2. Mahomes, 10 (2nd)
3. Lamar, 32 (5th)
4. Dak, 135 (8th)
5. Stafford, 1 (1st)
6. Purdy, 262 (9th)
7. Tua, 5 (2nd)
8. Hurts, 53 (5th)
9. Cousins, 102 (8th)
10. Goff, 1 (1st)
11. Herbert, 6 (3rd)
12. Love, 26 (4th)
13. Stroud, 2 (2nd)
14. Geno, 39 (2nd)
15. Lawrence, 1 (1st)

Over the last 10 years, 4 of these QBs have been drafted 1-5 and 4 were drafted 6-32. Overall, over the last 10 years, 17 QBs have been drafted 1-5 and 15 were drafted 6-32. The hit rate is nearly identical.

I'm not suggesting this is hard science. Probably the numbers would change if I looked at other measures of QB effectiveness or other seasons, but I have a job.

Anyway, it's worth considering why so many top 5 drafted QBs don't pan out. I'm sure it's been said, but I'll repeat: they're being drafted into shitty situations. And the Pats, right now, unfortunately, are the poster child for a shitty situation.

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I guess the issue with this is the chicken and the egg right - if the Pats are truly the "poster child for a shitty situation" - is a year led by Jacoby Brissett followed by ???? going to make that any better for whoever the incoming QB is? I am presuming the argument would be to pursue something like a Jalen Hurts / Jordan Love / Lamar Jackson path - grab a toolsy QB in R2 or late in R1 who you can sit behind Brissett as you build a strong team around him and his skillset, and then usher him in., but is the team escalating up to a "good" situation in the amount of time having a rookie salaried starting QB would be most hugely beneficial? Or is it just a QB one year later in their deal walking into a bad situation?

And if they're not a poster child for a shitty situation, how much longer will those conditions preventing that (which is basically a legitimately good defense) hold out?

And I will say the descriptor above still involves using a first - I know the argument was "the Pats will get another chance" and at some point they may, but successfully doing that may be a different story. Below are the years and pick locations of any QBwho is at least a likely mid to high end NFL starter in 2024 as well as the total number of pick spent on QBs

2022: Pick 262 (Purdy) - 9 Total QBs chosen
2021: Pick 1 (Lawrence) - 10 Total QBs chosen (including 5 first rounders, jeez)
2020: Picks 1 (Burrow), 5 (Tua), 6 (Herbert), 26 (Love), and 53 (Hurts) - 13 Total QBs chosen
2019: Pick 1 (Murray)- 11 QBs chosen
2018: Pick 1 (Mayfield), Pick 7 (Allen), Pick 32 (Jackson) - 13 QBs chosen including 5 first dounders
2017: Pick 10 (Mahomes), Pick 12 (Watson) - 10 QBs chosen including 2nd overall pick
2016: Pick 1 (Goff), Pick 145 (Prescott) - 15 QBs chosen
2015: None (7 QBs chosen, including 1st and 2nd overall pick)
2014: None (13 QBs chosen, Pick 3 and four others in R1 and R2 - you could argue Derek Carr on Pick 36)
2013: Pick 39 (G. Smith) - 11 QBs chosen but only 1 in R1, 1 inR2

So to me, it really does still look very top loaded with a lot of those QBs outside of QBs going into great situations, super long developments, or hitting that massive shot in the dark (Prescott, Purdy) needing a high value pick. In the last 10 judgable drafts, that's 114 QBs chosen, of which only sixteen or so represent guys you'd want QBing your team in any reasonable fashion - and of those sixteen, nine of them were Top 10 picks?

There's always going to be misses and a lot of what I saw were teams doing exactly what you're warning against - they felt compelled to pick a QB despite the warts and it went nowhere. So I am of the mind that if the Pats talent reviewers genuinely think whoever left at three isn't the answer...then trade is ok. But I think they need to be pretty sure on that as that hit rate in the back half of the first onwards gets really ugly, and we can see there can be droughts spanning years on the position.

E5 Yaz said:

blah blah blah Mahomes blah blah blah Brady blah blah blah

The only thing that can be said for certain is that the 11th pick isn't likely to get you the "top QBs" considered in a particular draft class, unless you have a EJ Manuel year or it's 1983.

Beyond that, saying anything is a certainty is nonsense.

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I think that's exactly what I was saying no?

I can't believe the stupid draft is 5 weeks away. The first round of the NBA playoffs starts April 20th. The Sox better start off hot because I don't want to waste all the time I devote to sports thinking about this pick.

Fishercat said:

I guess the issue with this is the chicken and the egg right - if the Pats are truly the "poster child for a shitty situation" - is a year led by Jacoby Brissett followed by ???? going to make that any better for whoever the incoming QB is? I am presuming the argument would be to pursue something like a Jalen Hurts / Jordan Love / Lamar Jackson path - grab a toolsy QB in R2 or late in R1 who you can sit behind Brissett as you build a strong team around him and his skillset, and then usher him in., but is the team escalating up to a "good" situation in the amount of time having a rookie salaried starting QB would be most hugely beneficial? Or is it just a QB one year later in their deal walking into a bad situation?

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We've probably all done the mock draft where we trade back a few times and end up with 5-6 top 100 picks, and we draft Troy Fautanu, Adonai Mitchell, Patrick Paul, Malachi Corley, Ben Sinnott, etc., and it's looking like a hell of a draft, one that would dramatically reshape our offense. Sure, one of those picks could be a toolsy guy like Rattler or Milton who'd sit for a year behind Brissett. That's what I'm contemplating.

But if the Pats decide they want Maye, wonderful. They know way more than I do. But I get queasy looking at all the top QBs who fail, like Sam Darnold, who was a great prospect and was just ruined. Of course, he had a bit of a long throwing motion, too.

Bowser said:

Both Joe Milton and Caleb Williams have better arms than Maye, and JJ McCarthy probably does, too. Milton hit 62mph at the combine and McCarthy 61. Last year Anthony Richardson was 60. I'd be surprised if Maye threw this hard. Maybe you're making a distinction between arm strength and arm talent? He certainly has a good arm, but it could be that his long, slow release makes it look worse than it is.

And I could certainly be wrong about Maye as a runner, but he's at least 15 lbs lighter than Allen, and he doesn't strike me as sudden, agile, or powerful. Josh Allen is a force and runs NFL dudes over. I haven't seen Maye do that in the ACC, but he's young and might develop.

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I've got no reason to believe Maye's numbers won't be right there with Milton and Williams when he has his pro day. He's got plenty of arm strength, along with arguably the best arm talent (in that he can make every throw, and IMO, is the best thrower over the middle of the field in the draft).

And you're comparing Allen now to Maye now. There's a 6 year difference between the two. When Allen came out, he was 6'5, 233. Maye is 6'4, 223 right now. He ran a 4.75 at the combine, and Maye is likely going to be in the 4.55-4.60 range. When you watch this clip of Maye in college, all I see is Josh Allen, honestly.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_0cAfUEeEM


Allen, I believe, has a bit stronger arm (which isn't saying much, there's like 2 people on Earth with Allen's arm), but I think Maye at this point in his life is actually a better QB than Allen was at Wyoming. If Maye goes to a team that gives him the rope to make mistakes like the Bills did for Allen for his first 2 seasons, that's where I see Maye's ceiling.

All of that said, I don't think the Pats get a chance at Maye. I think the same chalk of Williams #1, Maye #2 hasn't moved in over 2 years, and that's how it plays out.

This time of year, every time I see or hear another talking head reveal some source said this or some source said that, I don't buy any of it. I think all of the folks talking Maye down as anonymous sources are teams hoping he falls to them. And folks talking up guys like McCarthy are hoping a team picks him over Maye, so they can get a shot at him.

Bowser said:

Both Joe Milton and Caleb Williams have better arms than Maye, and JJ McCarthy probably does, too. Milton hit 62mph at the combine and McCarthy 61. Last year Anthony Richardson was 60. I'd be surprised if Maye threw this hard. Maybe you're making a distinction between arm strength and arm talent? He certainly has a good arm, but it could be that his long, slow release makes it look worse than it is.

And I could certainly be wrong about Maye as a runner, but he's at least 15 lbs lighter than Allen, and he doesn't strike me as sudden, agile, or powerful. Josh Allen is a force and runs NFL dudes over. I haven't seen Maye do that in the ACC, but he's young and might develop.

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You're welcome to disregard the professional scouting reports that list Maye as having elite arm talent and reference the 1200ish yards he rushed for and the designed QB runs and such. It's a free country. But it's not like SoSH members are wishcasting this stuff into existence. It's the book on the guy.

I'm not sure which order Daniels/Maye will go. If you believe the latest scuttlebutt, it's Daniels going to Washington, but if the Vikings trade up to #2, maybe Daniels will be there at #3 instead of Maye. I'm happy either way.

DJnVa said:

This is Allen's NFL draft profile:


He got a first round grade and a comparison to Jake Locker. He had a 6.4 prospect grade, Maye's is 6.5.

Other numbers from NFL.com

Production Score: Allen 70, Maye 88
Athleticism Score: Allen 81, Maye 78
Total Score: Allen 77, Maye 85

Some interesting comparisons:
Allen: "May have too much hero in his blood. Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it."
Maye: "He can make every throw, but he will try to make throws that he shouldn’t have attempted. "

Allen: "Field-reading is spotty. Needs to be more patient in allowing combo routes to develop."
Maye: "Can get uncomfortable when initial reads aren’t clear and clean."

Allen: "Rare arm strength and overall arm talent. Has variety of release points if needed."
Maye: "Unquestionable arm talent to connect from challenging angles."

Allen: "Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short."
Maye: "needs to learn when to take some sauce off the throw to make it more catchable."

View attachment 79687

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Deeply helpful work you've done here. Thanks!

Bowser said:

If we draft Maye, it will be Maye + a dumpster fire of a roster, and if Maye doesn't pan out -- which is the most likely scenario, particularly given the talent he'll likely be playing with -- we're left with the dumpster fire. And we wasted all that capital.

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To better clarify you realistically probably get left with a 3 YEAR at minimum dumpster fire. Don't leave out the rarely ever acknowledged on the front end but always typically waiting there on the backend sunk cost fallacy aspect being baked into that logic cake if/when you do miss.

Where it ultimately doesn't matter if you are already 99.9% certain at the end of a year 1 evaluation that Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson just didn't play out to have the makeup look at the NFL level you were hoping and allowing yourself to dream big the day you put that pick in. You sir are pot committed everywhere it counts anyway to still pretending that guy is still every bit the upside "franchise qb" you took at #3 overall. Which then commonly just leads down the same repeating spiral of bad team logic piling up more non-productive and/or bad decisions (such as bringing in new coaches and a different OC and offense to learn every year).

Deathofthebambino said:

I've got no reason to believe Maye's numbers won't be right there with Milton and Williams when he has his pro day. He's got plenty of arm strength, along with arguably the best arm talent (in that he can make every throw, and IMO, is the best thrower over the middle of the field in the draft).

And you're comparing Allen now to Maye now. There's a 6 year difference between the two. When Allen came out, he was 6'5, 233. Maye is 6'4, 223 right now. He ran a 4.75 at the combine, and Maye is likely going to be in the 4.55-4.60 range. When you watch this clip of Maye in college, all I see is Josh Allen, honestly.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_0cAfUEeEM


Allen, I believe, has a bit stronger arm (which isn't saying much, there's like 2 people on Earth with Allen's arm), but I think Maye at this point in his life is actually a better QB than Allen was at Wyoming. If Maye goes to a team that gives him the rope to make mistakes like the Bills did for Allen for his first 2 seasons, that's where I see Maye's ceiling.

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I watch almost no college football. Before we knew the Pats were picking at 3 I had no idea who any of these guys were. After reading about 6 sentences of Maye’s draft profile I thought that sounds an awful lot like Josh Allen. Because all I heard in 2018 was my Bills friends and Jets friends arguing non-stop if Allen or Darnold was the better prospect. You could redact the names and schools and it would be hard to tell Allen and Maye’s profiles apart.

Does this feel about right to those who follow the college QBs more than I?

Maye: Ceiling = Josh Allen; Floor = Josh Rosen.
Daniels: Ceiling = Lamar Jackson; Floor = RG3

RG3 was an MVP candidate. So, no.

Saints Rest said:

Does this feel about right to those who follow the college QBs more than I?

Maye: Ceiling = Josh Allen; Floor = Josh Rosen.
Daniels: Ceiling = Lamar Jackson; Floor = RG3

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I think it's more:
Maye: Reasonable Ceiling: Justin Herbert or Josh Allen, Floor (other than true floor which is not an NFL player): Daniel Jones?
Daniels: Reasonable Ceiling: Cunningham? No great ceiling comps for him, doesn't have Lamar's tools, but also a better runner than say.. Russ. Floor (true floor is not an NFL player): Skinny Justin Fields?

Comps are tough, as are ceilings and floors, but in terms of traits:

Maye has a high ceiling because he has top end physical tools, big, strong, very good arm, not an elite runner but pretty fast and capable of getting chunks yardage. Floor is going to be about mechanics and footwork, plus decision making.

Daniels: Probably an elite runner, but may not have as much homerun speed/acceleration as Lamar, arm isn't great so his ceiling is probably lower there. Floor.... can he make all the NFL throws, can he read progressions, etc. Otherwise he's just a runner.

So Maye might be one of the most physically impressive QBs ever to play ... or a backup. Oddly enough, I'd probably buy that. Note: Curious as to why you chose Rosen, who's similar in size but slow and had a meh arm and character issues. Anyway, I think the Allen and Jackson comparisons are much too rich.

But here's an excerpt from a scouting report on a player who I think is a better ceiling comp for Maye:

Sees the field. In shotgun on most plays and his only running option is a draw. His offensive line is poor. Doesn't trust his protection. With no running game and no real top receivers, he's stuck with the three-step drops and waiting till the last second to see if a receiver can get free. No tight end either. So he's taking some big hits. Carried an overmatched team entirely on his shoulders. He's big, never gets rattled. Rallied his team from a 14-3 halftime deficit basically all by himself. The first touchdown, a 40-yard streak down the left sideline, he dropped the ball over the receiver's right shoulder. Called the next touchdown pass himself, checking off to a 12-yard slant. Makes a lot of decisions on play calls at the line of scrimmage, but they ask too much of him. They don't just let him play. This is a guy you should just let play. Threw three interceptions. Two were his fault. Trying to force something both times. He has a lot to learn.

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Spoiler: Ernie Accorsi writing about Eli Manning.

I think Sam Darnold fits better as the Maye downside comp.

Bowser said:

So Maye might be one of the most physically impressive QBs ever to play ... or a backup. Oddly enough, I'd probably buy that. Note: Curious as to why you chose Rosen, who's similar in size but slow and had a meh arm and character issues. Anyway, I think the Allen and Jackson comparisons are much too rich.

But here's an excerpt from a scouting report on a player who I think is a better ceiling comp for Maye:



Spoiler: Ernie Accorsi writing about Eli Manning.

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Mobility is such a difference maker that I don't like that comp. I think Jones makes a ton of sense as a downside comp, big, good athlete, good arm, but can't put it together, turnover prone, etc.

Cellar-Door said:

Mobility is such a difference maker that I don't like that comp. I think Jones makes a ton of sense as a downside comp, big, good athlete, good arm, but can't put it together, turnover prone, etc.

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Yeah, for sure Maye is a much better athlete than Eli, but I was thinking they were both one man shows in college who were raw, a bit erratic, and difficult to evaluate. And Eli made himself into a borderline top 10 QB with flashes of horseshoe-up-his-ass brilliance despite a 62% completion rate and tossing 15-ish INTs each year.

Maye could be better than this, but Eli Manning-like production would be a pretty good outcome.

Bowser said:

Yeah, for sure Maye is a much better athlete than Eli, but I was thinking they were both one man shows in college who were raw, a bit erratic, and difficult to evaluate. And Eli made himself into a borderline top 10 QB with flashes of horseshoe-up-his-ass brilliance despite a 62% completion rate and tossing 15-ish INTs each year.

Maye could be better than this, but Eli Manning-like production would be a pretty good outcome.

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If Maye's last name was Manning would he be the consensus #1 pick?

NortheasternPJ said:

If Maye's last name was Manning would he be the consensus #1 pick?

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Great point. I would say YES.

NortheasternPJ said:

If Maye's last name was Manning would he be the consensus #1 pick?

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Yeah, probably. And almost certainly if he wasn't a Manning, Eli would not have been.

MikeM said:

To better clarify you realistically probably get left with a 3 YEAR at minimum dumpster fire. Don't leave out the rarely ever acknowledged on the front end but always typically waiting there on the backend sunk cost fallacy aspect being baked into that logic cake if/when you do miss.

Where it ultimately doesn't matter if you are already 99.9% certain at the end of a year 1 evaluation that Sam Darnold or Zach Wilson just didn't play out to have the makeup look at the NFL level you were hoping and allowing yourself to dream big the day you put that pick in. You sir are pot committed everywhere it counts anyway to still pretending that guy is still every bit the upside "franchise qb" you took at #3 overall. Which then commonly just leads down the same repeating spiral of bad team logic piling up more non-productive and/or bad decisions (such as bringing in new coaches and a different OC and offense to learn every year).

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The problem with the “dumpster fire” argument is that if Wolf cant elevate the team from dumpster fire to decent despite massive amounts of cap space this year and next year and lots of high draft picks (presumably top 5 picks in each round for a couple years if the team is perpetually a dumpster fire) then it doesn’t really matter if the QB is a failure or if they trade down because clearly he’s incompetent.

The Pats over the next 2 years have plenty of opportunities to build a good team and if they can’t do that with a dud of a QB then they wouldn’t be able to it with a bevy of picks acquired for the pick, or with Alt/Nabers/Harrison at 3

NextBigThing8184 said:

The problem with the “dumpster fire” argument is that if Wolf cant elevate the team from dumpster fire to decent despite massive amounts of cap space this year and next year and lots of high draft picks (presumably top 5 picks in each round for a couple years if the team is perpetually a dumpster fire) then it doesn’t really matter if the QB is a failure or if they trade down because clearly he’s incompetent.

The Pats over the next 2 years have plenty of opportunities to build a good team and if they can’t do that with a dud of a QB then they wouldn’t be able to it with a bevy of picks acquired for the pick, or with Alt/Nabers/Harrison at 3

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You are speculating under a scenario there where Wolf is still kept around if/when that plays out to be the case this year.

I am of the mind that things probably play out a lot differently next offseason if/when it becomes a lot more apparent that pushing the GOAT out of town (who i expect to make a much hyped up return to somewhere else next offseason) really just left the franchise in an even bigger free fall, and to a point of swapping bad team meme places with the Jets. Especially if you really do immediately turn around and end up "Mac Jones'ing" this new QB all over again.

“Mac Jonesing the QB”? You mean making endless excuses for a guy that blows like the warm winds following a sumptuous chili dinner?

nighthob said:

“Mac Jonesing the QB”? You mean making endless excuses for a guy that blows like the warm winds following a sumptuous chili dinner?

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I think they mean surrounding him with very good talent as a rookie with unsustainable contracts that cause your veteran o-line to decline in future years so you can't hide him.

Mac Jones' rookie situation was very good, it was lauded as a model franchise in segments all season as the Jets, Bears and Jags were mocked for "not setting their QBs up to succeed". The idea that his WRs were the problem came up later when it became a better outrage story than.... "without an elite O-line and once the league had a book on him, Mac was a very limited QB with every weakness that caused him to be the 5th QB in his draft in the first place."

You can call it and/or explain it off however you want. God knows I've been down that worst team in the league "who's fault is it really!?!" blame game road on young QBs multiple times now, so i get it. Bottomline though remains that you'd be hard pressed to find anybody on the outside of that NE optimism echo chamber who doesn't view their work with Mac Jones these past 2 years as the current modern day failure standard of how NOT to go about developing a QB. Where it's still super fresh, and descriptions such "criminal" are commonly used regardless how they feel about Mac's long term prospects as an NFL starter.

That that will be the season long narrative a very eager to tear you guys down further media is going to have field day with it if given the opportunity. And my big picture guess wouldn't be Wolf surviving that.