Roster building in baseball: Winning moves are usually not recognized when they happen

soxhop411

soxhop411

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Lose Remerswaal said:
Agreed, but I don’t recall any moves that happened and folks said: There is the piece that puts the Sox over the top. Winning moves are usually not recognized when they happen
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nvalvo said:
Hilariously, this is how I felt when they acquired Eric Gagne.

edit: of course, Gagne has a Red Sox World Series ring...
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Rice4HOF said:
A World Series that we won in spite, and not because, of him.
Seriously, he almost single handedly kept us from winning the division in 2007 despite only appearing on a handful of innings.
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Jimbodandy said:
In 18.2 regular season innings, he put up an ERA of 6.75 and a shockingly bad net WPA of -1.59. The net of acquiring him was costing us 1.5 games to close out the season. That includes his good performances offsetting the bad ones.

edit: looking further, 0 saves. 3 BS, 3 H.
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Im using these four posts as a jumping off point for discussing how there are really no such things as roster moves that can instantly put one over the top. And many of the moves (be it trades, or signings) that have the biggest impact are frequently those that are under the radar.

The biggest example of this, is the 2013 Red Sox

Lets Flashback to Dec 2011
during that offseason the Red Sox and A's made a trade

The Athletics traded Andrew Bailey and Ryan Sweeney to the Red Sox in exchange for Josh Reddick. In addition, two prospects, Miles Head and Raúl Alcántara, were also sent to Oakland
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Of course the 2012 season did not go as planned, so the sox tried to add some more re-enforcements to its BP that offseason by trading for Joel Hanrahan (along with Brock Holt) for Jerry Sands, Stolmy Pimentel, Iván DeJesús, Jr. and Mark Melancon. Another RP by the name of Koji Uehara was signed in Dec of that year as well, but with Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan (two All star/Proven closers) in the Pen Koji would perhaps only see an opportunity to close out a game here and there right?

Well thats not what happened (as we all know)

Joel Hanrahan had first dibs at the closer role, but ended up getting injured in May and ended up needing TJ later that month.

Next man up: The next player to get their crack at the closer spot was Andrew Bailey. He too was unable to keep the closer role and like Joel Hanrahan Eventually was injured (and later out for the season)


On Jun 21, 2013 Prior to game against the Tigers John Farrell announced that Koji Uehara would now have a shot to "claim" the closer role....

Here is how ESPN's Chuck Pleiness described Koji's career at that time
Uehara had 13 saves in 2010 with the Baltimore Orioles. He also had 32 saves while in Japan in 2007.

He had one save last year with the Texas Rangers, and has one this season for the Red Sox.

"I'm not going to change anything," Uehara said through a translator Friday. "I'll do my best about going on with my business."

In 30 innings pitched this season, Uehara has 42 strikeouts and just seven walks, including two intentional.
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Of course, we all know how the rest of the 2013 turned out... But did you actually realize that What Koji did in 2013 was so improbable that it may not happen again.
A Diamond Digest article from 2020 puts into perspective how absolutely insane His season was. I am only going to quote a small piece here because the entire article is well worth your time
In 74.1 innings, Koji posted a 1.09 ERA, 21 saves, and struck out 101 batters. This gave him an ERA+ of 379, which is outstanding. It would be outstanding for any pitcher in any sized body of work, but both of these things work against Koji here. As mentioned, he threw 74.1 innings that year. This was the 18th highest total among all relievers in 2013. He was also 38 years old. A thirty-eight year old man prevented runs at a historic rate in an abundant work load. Such dominance at such an advanced age is unheard of. Here is a list of players to post an ERA+ of 200 or more in their age 38 season or older, sorted by most innings pitched.
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http://diamond-digest.com/2020/02/04/koji-uehara-the-2013-red-sox-a-year-of-unexpected-dominance/

Now circling back to the posts that made me start this thread...

Going into the 2013 season, did anyone here (or literally anyone in baseball) have Koji as the "difference" maker for the Red Sox that season? (by difference maker Im only talking about recent acquisitions, so not Ortiz etc)


If Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey never got injured (and had to miss pretty much the entire season) and did not soil themselves to the point that the Sox needed to turn to their "third option" in the closer role that season, does the 2013 season still end with a WS for the Red Sox?
 
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soxhop411

soxhop411

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And to add on to this. Did anyone else believe at the time that Holt, would have a greater impact on the team than the “main piece” Joel Hanrahan? And that Holt would become a fan favorite during his time with BOS?
 
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scottyno

scottyno

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Koji is still on the team in this scenario right? Or is Bailey good enough in 2012 that they don't sign Koji? If they still have Koji then we're basically just saying, "If the 2013 Red Sox had more talent than they actually did do they still win", Koji would have just been doing it in the 8th instead of the 9th, it's not like he wasn't going to have a big role in the bullpen regardless when they signed him.
 
cantor44

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Are you talking only deadline moves? Or any move? If the latter, there are always players that surprise, like Koji, and others that disappoint, like, say, Renteria. On the other hand, Foulke was explicitly signed to be a closer on a championship team and he delivered. Schilling was brought in so the rotation would have 2 aces, to win a championship, and he delivered. Sale was brought in for the same reason (and kinda delivered), The gutsy 2004 deadline trades fortified a defense in desperate need of an upgrade and delivered ...

So, is the subtext of this thread, "there are surprises?" Of course. But that doesn't mean its all random. Many moves in each of the Sox WS teams succeeded in delivering a championship exactly as the organization hoped.
 
Red(s)HawksFan

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cantor44 said:
So, is the subtext of this thread, "there are surprises?" Of course. But that doesn't mean its all random. Many moves in each of the Sox WS teams succeeded in delivering a championship exactly as the organization hoped.
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I think it's less that things are random than it is the bolded, but we as fans don't often see or understand the significance in the moment the move is made. I think the prime example of "you don't know what will be the pivotal move" is more recent than the OP example: Steve Pearce. Brought in to back-up 1B at a time when the starter was in the midst of an All Star first half and ended up earning World Series MVP. I don't think anyone was upset about that trade, but no one saw it being as important as it turned out to be either.

I think the lesson is that it is folly to get overly worked up over any individual trade/signing. Some are obvious headline moves to improve the team (like the moves you mention from 2004), but more often than not, the benefits aren't immediately apparent.
 
tims4wins

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
I think it's less that things are random than it is the bolded, but we as fans don't often see or understand the significance in the moment the move is made. I think the prime example of "you don't know what will be the pivotal move" is more recent than the OP example: Steve Pearce. Brought in to back-up 1B at a time when the starter was in the midst of an All Star first half and ended up earning World Series MVP. I don't think anyone was upset about that trade, but no one saw it being as important as it turned out to be either.

I think the lesson is that it is folly to get overly worked up over any individual trade/signing. Some are obvious headline moves to improve the team (like the moves you mention from 2004), but more often than not, the benefits aren't immediately apparent.
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The Roberts trade in 2004 is a better example than the Nomar trade. I doubt anyone thought that a 4th/5th outfielder would move the needle on the outcome of that season. And yet...
 
AlNipper49

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It’s easy to overlook team composition and organizational depth in an era where every major media outlet m, including social media, is basically the whiner line.

The Koji move was a composition move that acknowledged the fickleness of building a bullpen. The Dave Roberts move was shit on at the time - even more than Epstein’s call for more speed coming off of the bench. Superstars are valuable because they can offer less variability in performance, which allows you to work out some of those high variability moves. Sometimes those moves result in double sixes (Koji) and sometimes they don’t (Bailey). 2013 had a whole bunch of dice rolls that worked out, one of the reasons that season was so damn fun.

For organizational depth look to the Dodgers and Astros. The Dodgers don’t keep their performance length without a Walker Buehler pitching for nothing for years. The Astros don’t get to where they are unless they do the scummy move of intentionally tanking for five years. Hell, the Yankees had one of those most successful fire sales ever that led to having (some of) the assets for this season such as Torres. The majority of their rotation is anchored by what were non-top 20 type prospects.
 
Rovin Romine

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Red(s)HawksFan said:
I think it's less that things are random than it is the bolded, but we as fans don't often see or understand the significance in the moment the move is made. I think the prime example of "you don't know what will be the pivotal move" is more recent than the OP example: Steve Pearce. Brought in to back-up 1B at a time when the starter was in the midst of an All Star first half and ended up earning World Series MVP. I don't think anyone was upset about that trade, but no one saw it being as important as it turned out to be either.

I think the lesson is that it is folly to get overly worked up over any individual trade/signing. Some are obvious headline moves to improve the team (like the moves you mention from 2004), but more often than not, the benefits aren't immediately apparent.
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A lot of the Pierce/Roberts type moves are to acquire depth - and both those players were vets with tested skill-sets, as opposed to quasi-reclamation projects we got lucky on, lighting caught in a bottle (Iglesias last year), or the last man standing among a bunch of scratch tickets (Ortiz.) Sometimes those depth moves are underwhelming in practice and we don't remember them.
 
Coachster

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I'm thinking about 2013. If I remember correctly, nobody loved the signings of Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino at the time, but those two guys were instrumental in moving a last place team to a world championship. Two guys who filled a void and played like professionals every day. Who knew?
 
8slim

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Coachster said:
I'm thinking about 2013. If I remember correctly, nobody loved the signings of Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino at the time, but those two guys were instrumental in moving a last place team to a world championship. Two guys who filled a void and played like professionals every day. Who knew?
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Maybe not "love" but I don't recall people being fervently against those signings. And the folks people have mentioned in this thread - Napoli, Victorino, Pearce - had something in common: several years of plus-level offensive contribution at the major league level.

To me there's a difference between adding depth and taking a flyer. As poorly as his stint in Boston was, adding Marwin Gonzalez made sense to me. He was a depth signing with a history of solid batting. Despite his subpar season-to-date, Pham fits that criteria. So did Renfroe (and I still don't understand trading him away).
 
MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Remember when Mike Lowell was the washed up salary we had to eat to acquire Becket? I don't think anybody envisioned him playing so well for us for so many years.
 
trekfan55

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soxhop411 said:
Of course the 2012 season did not go as planned, so the sox tried to add some more re-enforcements to its BP that offseason by trading for Joel Hanrahan (along with Brock Holt) for Jerry Sands, Stolmy Pimentel, Iván DeJesús, Jr. and Mark Melancon. Another RP by the name of Koji Uehara was signed in Dec of that year as well, but with Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan (two All star/Proven closers) in the Pen Koji would perhaps only see an opportunity to close out a game here and there right?

Well thats not what happened (as we all know)
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I need to pull this from your post too.

The Sox quickly demoted Melancon after he had a bad few games, then traded him. He has gone on to build a very good career.
 
The Boomer

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Coachster said:
I'm thinking about 2013. If I remember correctly, nobody loved the signings of Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino at the time, but those two guys were instrumental in moving a last place team to a world championship. Two guys who filled a void and played like professionals every day. Who knew?
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Don't forget Johnny Gomes.
 
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