Recent content by bowiac

  1. bowiac

    Introducing...[Name TBD] - NBA Box Score Projection Project

    Yeah - I'd love to add this sort of stuff, but this data is tough to get reliably/cleanly.
  2. bowiac

    Introducing...[Name TBD] - NBA Box Score Projection Project

    Thanks both. Always nice to to see some adoption/acknowledgement. I missed the question earlier, but I don't anticipate ever moving the core DARKO content behind a paywall. It is more of labor-of-love for me, and a resume item. I am continuing to build out additional functionality for it...
  3. bowiac

    Ben Simmons wants out of Philadelphia

    This is roughly my view. I do think it's a skillset issue with SImmons (rather than lack of 'aggression' or whatever), but he remains a good player for a team without championship aspirations. The Sixers are about the best case scenario for him as a key piece on a contender, but there are a lot...
  4. bowiac

    Ben Simmons wants out of Philadelphia

    They surrounded Simmons with 45%, 41%, 39%, and 38% three point shooters this year. I am skeptical of the "bad fit" explanation with him. Short of like, the Nets, I can't think of a better fit for him. The situation isn't the problem. His skillset is.
  5. bowiac

    Timelord signs big extension (4 yrs/54 mill)

    This may not belong in the Williams thread, but I'm not sure where this 'the advanced metrics like [Allen's] D' stuff is coming from. He grades +0.9 defensively on DARKO, which is fine, but sort of meh for a big (not in the top 25 for a big). That's my own stat, but the two best public metrics...
  6. bowiac

    Schroder to Celtics

    This is a roughly fair value, for a low end rotation level level guy. /ducks.
  7. bowiac

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    Lonzo is probably the best FA comp for Smart, and he just signed for 4/85 (plus he was restricted). They're both gifted defensive point guards who are somewhat limited on the offensive side. Smart is materially better right now imo, but Lonzo is obviously younger. So there's probably some value...
  8. bowiac

    2021-22 NBA Off-season Thread

    FWIW DARKO has him at 35% (which accounts for his improvement in FT%).
  9. bowiac

    Celtics hire Ime Udoka as HC

    With the caveat that I don't know what I'm talking about, I'm thrilled with this hire.
  10. bowiac

    Kemba Walker + 2021 First Round Pick to OKC for Al Horford, Moses Brown

    Moses Brown has value, but in a Ivica Zubac upside sense. Robert Williams had real upside on the offensive side as a passer coming out of the draft. It's what made him pretty promising off the bat.
  11. bowiac

    The Poll: Is Wyc burning Brad- Should CBS be torched at season's end?

    In my defense I posted this when George was coming off injury, and his recovery seemed pretty uncertain (unlikely?). I was obviously aggressively wrong there, but it's a weird snapshot in time as well. I'm mostly just glad you didn't pull up my Dragan Bender vs. Jaylen Brown takes.
  12. bowiac

    Math in Basketball: Garbage or Not Garbage?

    Yeah - that's my point. The value is in predicting future team performance, where it performs well.
  13. bowiac

    Math in Basketball: Garbage or Not Garbage?

    As you can imagine, they're somewhat secretive, but generally the various NBA gambling consortiums I'm familiar with all work the same way. They have their own version of RAPM, with a fairly sophisticated prior, which they combine with daily minutes projections to get an estimate of each team's...
  14. bowiac

    Math in Basketball: Garbage or Not Garbage?

    Measuring how well a metric predicts individual player performance is hard and can be circular. The simple answer is that if you want to predict a player's RAPM next year, you take their trailing 3-year RAPM, add a simple aging adjustment, and then regress to the mean by about 25%. If the player...