This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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This whole assigning percentages to the QB is ridiculous.
An NFL team needs its QB to play reasonably well to win. Period.
The reason why the Browns are in the playoffs is because their revolving door of QBs has largely played well. Or well enough.
The Pats got fucking atrocious QB production all season.
Now….
If your offense is loaded then it’s much more likely a mediocre QB can give you adequate production.
See: Matt Cassell, 2008.
So the issue for the 2023 Pats is that every single positional group on the O was not nearly good enough. Along with the horrible QB play, we had a line that at its tip-top best was average (and was terrible often). We had WRs who range from average (Bourne) to awful (Thornton). We have RBs who are… fine… but have zero gamebreaking ability.
The whole thing is rotten. An average QB, or a better OL, or a better receiving corps might have won a couple more games.
But literally all of that is on Bill. He built this mess. And I’m hoping he comes back for one more season! But he built a mountain of shit on offense and he doesn’t get to escape blame for that because Mac sucked.
An NFL team needs its QB to play reasonably well to win. Period.
The reason why the Browns are in the playoffs is because their revolving door of QBs has largely played well. Or well enough.
The Pats got fucking atrocious QB production all season.
Now….
If your offense is loaded then it’s much more likely a mediocre QB can give you adequate production.
See: Matt Cassell, 2008.
So the issue for the 2023 Pats is that every single positional group on the O was not nearly good enough. Along with the horrible QB play, we had a line that at its tip-top best was average (and was terrible often). We had WRs who range from average (Bourne) to awful (Thornton). We have RBs who are… fine… but have zero gamebreaking ability.
The whole thing is rotten. An average QB, or a better OL, or a better receiving corps might have won a couple more games.
But literally all of that is on Bill. He built this mess. And I’m hoping he comes back for one more season! But he built a mountain of shit on offense and he doesn’t get to escape blame for that because Mac sucked.
I think Jones will swap McCarthy for BB over any result short of a Superbowl appearance. And I think that will happen. If not, maybe Jacksonville with Josh and Steve?
Lawrence has played hurt most of the season, and they have some weapons. Give him McDaniels and some draft capital with QB health, and I’d wager that offense is turning around.
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I think Buffalo did a tremendous, well maybe just really good, job of patiently developing Allen as well. But I think his talent is much more a reason for their success than their development plan. Same for Lamar, good job by Baltimore, but I'd still tip it more to great talent from Lamar. Also if those guys were here, we're probably be bitching about them that they haven't won anything yet.
I'd like to see a bit more from Love than one season before I get too excited about him.
Those guys might be in the back of the top 12, Hurts probably is but I find it hard to evaluate him and Purdy since Philly/SF are stacked around him.
There probably aren't even 12 QB in the league if I'm the Patriots I'd be really excited about. Like, what list of QBs would you be like, I'm all set for a 5 year plan here.
I'd say right now I'd be happy if I had these guys for the next 5 years
Mahomes
Allen
Lamar
Burrow
Stroud
Herbert
Dak
Lawrence(a bit shaky right now, but I'd take my chances)
So only 8 guys that I'd be thinking, I have my QB let's build around him. And even then in Strouds case it's with a tiny sample, and it's hoping for some more growth from Lawrence/Herbert. It's hard to find those guys when there are only 8 of them. All of those guys are on the team that drafted them, and six of them were drafted in the top 10.
A case could be made for Hurts, Tua, Purdy, Fields if you're a believer. I'm unsure of any of them. And if you were just looking short term, probably Stafford. Like people in here are squealing look at Flacco! Look at Baker! Would we really be happy with those guys? Do we think we can win a Super Bowl with them?
These guys are hard to find. They're usually picked at the top of the draft. The Patriots haven't been in position to draft one of them in decades. They are now. They have to evaluate them correctly, and hit with this pick. Otherwise, we're likely right here arguing about guys like Baker and Flacco for another four years.
For the third time, not alone.
Of course they do. But it's hard to do when there aren't that many of them to acquire.
Again, if say 12 are available and there are 32 teams, are 20 GMs that don't have one of the top 12 guys idiots?
Yes, this is my point. The QB play was horrendous, nobody is arguing differently. But it was a failure of the entire operation on the offensive side of the ball and Bill is accountable for this.
I don't think Jacksonville is making a change.
Lawrence got banged up a few weeks ago and went from 7 of 8 games with a passer rating over 90 (and 5 of those were over 100) to playing gimpy and hurt down the stretch and they lost 5 of 6. I think that gets chalked up to injuries, not bad coaching.
Let's pump the brakes on Lamar for a second. This is his 6th season, and he has exactly one more playoff win than...Mac Jones. Precisely, because he can't stay healthy, and because they haven't given him any receiver help outside of Mark Andrews (although they've tried, but Ozzie sucks almost as much as BB at evaluating college receivers, which is why OBJ is there right now). God help Baltimore if they catch a snow day in 2 weeks like we had in Foxboro today.
I do love the folks getting in on the Jordan Love love though. Dude played really well in the last 9 games (he was fucking awful before that), which coincided with a tomato can schedule, the return, then loss of Christian Watson, then the return of Aaron Jones.
Guys like Jared Goff are perfectly capable of winning Super Bowls. They just can't do it alone, like Tom Brady and Mahomes can...
I'm just going to clip this part, but appreciate the whole post - Buffalo was ridiculed for taking Allen because he was a toolsy QB who had awful stats in college and played in a nothing conference. They were further ridiculed when he wasn't good off the bat. There was nothing predetermined about him becoming a top 5 QB - if he went to a lot of other situations (insert shitty franchise), he'd be Sam Darnold IMO.
I get that there's some luck involved with drafting a QB, but I really reject this idea that you just roll the dice when you draft and if you happen to hit, you're good and if you don't, well, try again. These teams that are good successfully develop QBs because they put them in good positions soon after they're drafted. They don't take Mac Jones and then construct the roster around him as if he's Tom Brady.
I don't think Jordan Love is an all-world QB or anything, but I would trade the Patriots current offensive roster - including the #3 pick - for Jordan Love and Green Bay offensive roster in a second. They have like 6 receivers in their first or second year, including tight ends, that I would take over every single Patriots receiver not named Douglas (and I would probably still take Reed, Doubs, and Watson over him). When you talk about a QB being lifted up by his surroundings, he's a prime example - and they didn't need a high first round pick to do it.
This is all true.
But if I asked you would you like Lamar Jackson on your team for the next five years, are you saying no thanks?
I'm saying yes please. Because if we're waiting for a guy that has top talent, and a winning resume, there is going to be a really short list of QBs that you want.
I would love to have Lamar here for the next 5-10 years.
I'm just saying if you gave Lamar the same coaching, the same roster and the same game plans we've seen for the last 4 years, it won't matter in the long run.
He's a really good QB. But like everyone else not named Mahomes or Brady, he ain't turning a pile of shit into a pile of gold by himself, or he'd have done it already. If Lamar wins it all this year with the roster he's playing with now, he deserves all of the accolades.
FTR, I'm planning for a Bills/Chiefs winner of the AFC, but hoping for the Browns.
But what if the team that took Mac Jones have never really been in position to draft one of those toolsy QBs? I guess you could say they were in position to move up to draft Fields, but I don't think Fields has really showed he can lead a winning team. Just, sign the street free agents that we know aren't good enough to win?
If you reject the idea that you just roll the dice when you draft and if you happen to hit, you're good and if you don't, well, try again, then what would your philosophy be? I think Josh Allen is Josh Allen, and Sam Darnold is Sam Darnold is mostly because of who they are, not because of what teams they landed on. I mean, do you think if Sam Darnold landed in Buffalo he'd be as good as Josh Allen has been? And the reverse, if Josh Allen landed in New York he'd be as bad as Sam Darnold was? I don't think so at all. Maybe Darnold would've been better off in Buffalo, but I think he'd still have been a wash out. And Alllen likely wouldn't have been as good in New York, because the Jets are cursed, but he'd be much better than Darnold was.
I think it's mostly on the QB, and the coaching/structure can enhance it. Not the other way around.
I agree. Unless I'm missing something (and I very well may be), what incentive does Bill have to agree to a trade in the first place? Especially since it would cost the team acquiring him significant capital. If Kraft wants him gone, and he doesn't want to go, why should Belichick reward him for that? Let Kraft take full responsibility for the move, and pay Belichick next year for going wherever the hell he wants. I don't see Bill taking it on the chin just to make things "end well" here. If Kraft wants that, let the man finish his contract.
I find it hard to believe Belichick would have signed a contract that allowed him to be traded at Kraft's whim, and even if it were so, what team wants a coach that wants to be somewhere else? The only destination that I can even squint and kind of sort of see is the LAC, but again, why not just say OK, Robert, fire me, and go there anyway and keep the capital? Again, maybe I'm missing something, but the trade talk just never made any sense based on my understanding of how these things normally work. For example, the reason Payton required compensation is because he walked away while under contract. It doesn't look like Bill plans on walking away on his own.
The one thing that keeps me thinking this just might not be a done deal (and I admit I could be completely delusional because I want it to be so) is that I'm not entirely convinced he'd be unwilling to scale back his role a bit. Everyone assumes he wants complete control and that's that, but he's a smart guy and I think that may override his ego. He understands the game is changing, and that he is not long for it simply based on his age. At 72, I wouldn't be surprised if he'd welcome a little more off his plate, and would be happy to (mostly) just coach. And just because maybe he doesn't get the last word, I'm pretty sure his voice would still carry a lot of weight.
Whatever happens, we'll never, ever, ever see another run like he led again. What a fucking privilege it's been.
I don't think you'd have the same game plans if Lamar were here. The Patriots aren't running the same game plans now they did when Cam was here. They would adjust to their QB. I don't think there was a gameplan that could cover for Mac/Zappe this year.
Baltimore hasn't exactly been loaded with offensive talent while Lamar has been there. He's had a really good tight end, and really disappointing receivers. And yet, when Lamar has been healthy they've won a lot of games. Because he's really good. And having a really good QB is most of the battle.
Hasn’t it already been said that Kraft can’t just trade Bill? It can only be a “trade” if there’s a mutual desire to move on and draft picks are used as compensation?
I mean, the Jets could have told Bill to pound sand in 2000 right? That thing dragged on for a while IIRC.
I mean, the Jets could have told Bill to pound sand in 2000 right? That thing dragged on for a while IIRC.
There’s extensive discussion of this in the “draft pick watch” thread, but the only scenario in which the Pats get any compensation for BB is if he wants to go and Kraft wants him back. If Kraft doesn’t want him to coach the team anymore he needs to fire him which would free BB to go wherever he wants without weakening the team he would be going to.
In 2000 the Jets did not want to release BB from his contract which is why the Pats had to trade for him. If Kraft doesn’t want BB anymore they aren’t getting anything for him.
You say that the Patriots were never in the position to draft a toolsy QB, but just as an example, the year prior they could've easily drafted toolsy QB Jalen Hurts. Instead, they drafted Kyle Duggar and decided to proceed into the year with Jarrett Stidham, until ultimately deciding to sign Cam Newton and avoid bottoming out.
At some point, teams are responsible for identifying talent and acquiring and developing it, are they not? Is there not some reason why the Mike Maccagnan Jets drafted Sam Darnold and hired Adam Gase to be his coach while the Bills drafted Allen and hired Brian Daboll to be his OC?
I pointed this out, when I wrote that Ozzie is about as good as BB at scouting receiver talent.
My point is that Lamar and Josh Allen's talent hasn't paid dividends (turn on the game right now to see how Josh Allen's talent works out at times), and in Allen's case, was a dumpster fire until they went and got him some help. Lamar has, likewise, received very little help from his receivers, but he's had great coaching, a good running game, and a great tight end, not to mention, a usually really good defense that punishes opposing team's mistakes. That uber talented Lamar has turned all of that into 1 playoff win in 5+ seasons.
It's simply not enough to have a talented QB. Tua/ Allen, etc. wouldn't have won 10 games this season in New England. I know that because at best, Buffalo is going to finish with 11 wins and Miami with 12, or 10 and 12 or 11 and 11.
This alone should put to bed this nonsense about an average QB having the Pats at 10 or more wins and in playoff contention.
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In addition, go look at Sam Darnold's first 2 years in New York, then look at Allen's first 2 years in Buffalo. Statistically, you won't find a ton of difference.
Then look at what happened with the rosters around them in year 3. Allen got Diggs (who caught like 125 balls and Beasley caught like 90) and Sam Darnold was given Jameson Crowder and Breshad Perriman (who was on his 4th team in 4 years) and a 37 year old Frank Gore.
It doesn't. With an average QB, this Pats team has at least 8 wins. They have 4 with Mac/Zappe and they both were bottom of the league. If you reversed all one score games (wins and losses this year) the Pats are 8-9.
Thanks.
And there’s been zero indication that Bill wants to leave while Kraft wants to keep him.
I imagine in that case it’s not like the NFL could force Kraft to trade him anyway. I seem to recall the Jets could have been obstinate and not let Bill go, but once Kraft offered a first round pick it was silly for them not to take that.
But I am glad that didn't happen as 8-9 or 9-8 is NFL purgatory. Glad we know about Jones and glad we are getting a top 3 pick.
Fair enough. They could've been the team that hit on the one toolsy guy that was available to them and has shown something in the four years they've been searching for a QB.
I guess you could hang them on that if you wanted to, it's feels a bit much to me, especially since I'm not really sure on Fields, but
OK.
As to the Allen/Darnold question, I know people don't like to hear this but the answer is probably, luck?
If Buffalo has the third pick that year instead of the Jets, I think it's likely they take Darnold instead of Allen. Maybe not, but I think they probably do.
And again, I think if Buffalo hires Gase, and the Jets hire Daboll, Allen and Darnold probably work out the same way. It's more on the player than the coach.
I strongly disagree with this though.
I think they've paid massive dividends. They are contenders whenever those guys are healthy. Only one guy gets to hold the trophy at the end of the year. The fact that those guys haven't done that yet doesn't make them disappointing in my eyes. It's hard to win. Those guys at least give you a chance.
I truly, truly do not understand how they would have "at least 8 wins" and "if you reversed all one score games, they'd be 8-9."
Nothing plays out the same way. Literally nothing. If I reverse Miami's 1 score games, they'd be 9-7 right now. Buffalo would be 11-5 (they would have been 10-2 after week 12, so maybe if they had an average QB or something).
This, I 100000% agree with. I wanted 11 wins minimum or 0 wins maximum, dating back in posts here to over a year ago.
I think there's a chance that Belichick winds up as a studio analyst.
We know he'd be good at it, especially if they gear it toward X's and O's with him. And there's enough dead weight to cut on those studio shows that he might be in the right place at the right time.
If the Washington owner really wants to be analytics-based, which is something he's talked about, that doesn't scream Belichick. Panthers would be a disaster to take over, and the Chargers reportedly are No. 1 on Harbaugh's list. If the Raiders retain Pierce, where's the job going to be that fits Belichick? @j-man 's idea of the Falcons makes some sense in a weak division, but there might not be that job that he'd want.
We know he'd be good at it, especially if they gear it toward X's and O's with him. And there's enough dead weight to cut on those studio shows that he might be in the right place at the right time.
If the Washington owner really wants to be analytics-based, which is something he's talked about, that doesn't scream Belichick. Panthers would be a disaster to take over, and the Chargers reportedly are No. 1 on Harbaugh's list. If the Raiders retain Pierce, where's the job going to be that fits Belichick? @j-man 's idea of the Falcons makes some sense in a weak division, but there might not be that job that he'd want.
Yes, I'm aware nothing plays the same but BUT we had the worst 2 QBs playing in the NFL this year and got to 4 wins. If NE had, say, the #16 QB, I think it is fair to say this team would win 8 games. The rest of the offense if average enough and the defense is far better than average. It doesn't even matter anymore.
I'm not hanging that on them. That's literally their job - you say that QB is the most important thing to a team. It seems fair to judge them that they've failed at that. We know that Belichick approaches the draft with the mindset of "Can this player beat out what's on my roster?" - it's clearly a mis-evaluation to look at Jalen Hurts and not think that he would beat out Jarrett Stidham and Brian Hoyer.
We applaud them for hitting on Christian Barmore in the second, Douglas in the sixth... why do they get a pass for acquiring Mac Jones, Cam Newton, Bailey Zappe, and other failures over the last four years at the most important position on the roster?
Wasn't BB secretly analytics based with Ernie, etc.? I always got the feeling they were, did not want to divulge anything, wanted to keep it proprietary, etc. I remember some comments where they seemed to go out of their way to bash it, which were almost a tell. The benefits of him coming in and building an entire football operation might also be such a benefit that these other considerations become less predominant for Harris anyways.
Dallas would be interesting if only to see BB and Jerry fight over GM decisions. I think Jerry is probably too involved for that partnership to work out.
Half of games in the NFL are one score games. If we give the Pats 7 more points in every game, they still would have been outscored this season. (I’m agreeing with you- the notion of just reversing all one score games or adding a score to each of a teams losses is absurd).
Sure, again, you can if you want. For me, it feels a bit much to judge them on not hitting on the only toolsy guy taken outside of the very top of the draft that has been a hit so far. And, again, I'm not really sure on Hurts anyways.
I'm not giving anyone a pass for anything. I just think it's a lot harder to find a QB than fans make it out to be. Well, just go get one. One guy hit in the second round four years ago, why weren't you the 1 of the 32 teams that found him? You failed.
But given your POV, I don’t know why you’d have any investment in BB staying or leaving. It sounds like whoever is gm could have the choice of drafting maye or daniels and one of those players could end up being significantly better than the other and there’s nothing a team could do to figure out that in advance. That choice is the primary thing that will decide the fate of the franchise, but the people in charge have little agency in making the right choice.
And it’s not 32 teams that passed on Hurts. A bunch of teams already had good QBs or young QBs that they wanted to see play. The pats were one of the few QB needy teams that said “no, let’s grab this safety instead.”
if might not be the job he wants but it might be the only choice to coach in 2024
Buffalo - i feel the only way mrkraft wouild allow this is by them giving up 2 1st round picks in 24 and 25
Tenn if vrael gets fired it wouild be a game chager
Jax this couild be a good fit as jax has most everything to win
vegas i heard from raiders fans that he is thinking about gruen again but because of mcd i doubt davis will want the ne well again
LAC ownship is very cheap out there
Dal if they lose next sun i couild j jones paying whatever mr kraft wants like a 1st and 2nd
philly let say the eagles lose they might jump in as well
nyg if the giants have 1 more 7-10 type year and bill only wants that job then i can see bill here in 2025
wash i think harris will want a younger coach
chi i think harbarugh is going here
minn i think they will give o'connall 1 more year
car gonna have to be a young guy
atl this is my pick esp if dal philly both get to the nfc tittie game
no allen will likely get 1 more year
zona they mostley like young coaches
SF if bill does tv in 24 and the nines fall these next 2 years SF might pay a big price for him
I never said I have any investment in BB staying or leaving. I don't have a strong feeling for it either way actually.
I think his "failings" as a GM have been overstated, I think his "failings" as a drafter have been overstated, but I think if the Krafts want to move on from him, OK. I've never said anything remotely close to saying there's nothing a team can figure out which QB is significantly better in advance, or the people in charge have little agency in making the right choice. Can you point out to me where I said anything close to that? Not being the one team that hit on the one toolsy guy taken outisde of the top picks doesn't equal having little agency in making the right choice.
I think if the Patriots are going to take a QB up top this year, as I believe they should, if they looked at it and said let's find a GM and a coach that can all grow together with a QB for the next decade that makes sense to me. I think they'd almost surely take a step back in coaching next year, but if they thought it would be the best long term move I'd get it.
Well they have an offseason to fix it.
Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the pick at 34 be a tackle, re-sign Onwenwu... Strange would hopefully be back week 1 (he's shown some good stuff), Sow has promise, might draft another G in the mid-rounds, plus plenty of cap space to throw a bag at a guy like Tyron Smith.
This team, particularly on offense is set up to turn over a lot of players and have the picks/cash to do it.
What does a “step back in coaching” look like, though? It didn’t appear to me that the Patriots were a very well coached team this year, at all. There’s no doubt that BB is an all time great coach, but maybe he’s not the best coach for this team anymore.
They were well coached on D, specifically front seven.
BB has 2 "problems", poor judge of WR talent and lack of analytic use.
You said that Buffalo would’ve taken Darnold instead of Allen, and they both would’ve had close to the same outcome wherever they ended up, and that much of these QB outcomes come down to luck. So if teams can’t be expected to see the difference between darnold and Allen, as an example, then it seems like you don’t think teams have a lot of agency when it comes to what happens with their QBs.
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