What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

JM3

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It's an interesting article. Jennings uses the Athletic's previous projections for contracts, which mostly seem really low since his article is all about how much demand there will be.
Like if Yamamoto signs for 7/203, I would be stunned. And mad if the Red Sox didn't offer significantly more than that.

He then guesses at how free agency might play out:



If that came to pass, we would be spending a lot of money on Montgomery, followed by winning a "prospect bidding war" for Bieber. Who would then need to be extended for a ton of money (or else we just traded a ton of prospect capital for one year of him.)

Yuck.
I'd rather we "settle for Imanaga" in Tier 3 than pay what it's likely to take for Montgomery. Bieber is good, but a load of prospects plus a big money long term extension is a lot to give up for him. I hope we outbid everyone for Yamamoto, even though the price will be astronomical, and hope he agrees to comes here. At least then we'd still have prospect capital to spend or develop.
Yeah, I was so not enamored by those scenarios I decided not to include then in my post lol

There's definitely a lot of teams who need not a lot of high-end available pitching. Even though the starting pitching is by far the stronger part of the market. Agree that I would be nervous if we ended up with a very expensive Montgomery & large prospect outlay on Bieber being the end result of the off season.
 

soxhop411

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If there is one thing to know about Shohei Ohtani's free agency, it's that you are unlikely to know much about it until he signs somewhere. If visits between Ohtani and a team are reported publicly, it will be held against the team, so the circles will be tiny and tight.

The expectation among teams involved is that Ohtani could move relatively quickly -- perhaps even before the Dec. 4-7 winter meetings, according to sources. This is not surprising. During Ohtani's time in MLB, he has spurned turning contract negotiations into major productions. He announced he was signing with the Angels on a Friday night in early December. Rather than maximizing his final earnings -- and potentially altering the arbitration system -- via a hearing, he signed a record one-year, $30 million deal in 2023. The most valuable free agent in the nearly half-century-old system is not altogether interested in everything the free agent experience can offer
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/38863760/mlb-offseason-2023-24-passan-predictions-preview-shohei-ohtani-juan-soto
 

jon abbey

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That all might be true, but his original signing with the Angels was just picking a team, basically everyone was offering the same (miniscule) amount of money because that's all they were allowed to do. This seems like a very very different process.
 

EyeBob

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That all might be true, but his original signing with the Angels was just picking a team, basically everyone was offering the same (miniscule) amount of money because that's all they were allowed to do. This seems like a very very different process.
Why Yamamotos situation different than Ohtani’s was? Y seems like a complete free agent whereas O seems to have been limited by the contract offers. Maybe I need a tutorial on the Japanese player coming to the MLB thingy.
 

JM3

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If we want a Yamamoto to the Red Sox narrative...

Boston is another big market possibility, in part because of Yamamoto’s friendship with Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida. New Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow was also said to be highly regarded by Cubs outfielder Seiya Suzuki when Breslow worked in the Chicago front office.
Seems like his agent is doing a good job making all the big market fanbases dreamcast on their guy.

https://sny.tv/articles/yankees-mets-target-yoshinobu-yamamoto-posted-any-day-where-teams-stand
 

simplicio

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Why Yamamotos situation different than Ohtani’s was? Y seems like a complete free agent whereas O seems to have been limited by the contract offers. Maybe I need a tutorial on the Japanese player coming to the MLB thingy.
"Foreign professionals -- defined as players who are at least 25 years of age and have played as a professional in a foreign league recognized by Major League Baseball for a minimum of six seasons -- maintain exemption from the international bonus pool."

Ohtani didn't wait until he was 25 to come over so he subjected himself to being ripped off by MLB.
 

Tokyo Sox

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Why Yamamotos situation different than Ohtani’s was? Y seems like a complete free agent whereas O seems to have been limited by the contract offers. Maybe I need a tutorial on the Japanese player coming to the MLB thingy.
There have been several changes to the MLB-NPB posting system over the years, but this is not directly related to that.

Simply, as @simplicio beat me to, it's just because of their ages when coming over. Ohtani was 23, while Yamamoto is 25, which is the cutoff for being subject to the MLB CBA international bonus pool rules. Here's a bit of an explainer: https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-faq-c262340780 but in general if you search for "MLB international bonus pool" you'll find stuff on it. I think it was more intended to stop shady agents from signing kids out of the Dominican as 12yos etc, but Ohtani was unfortunately caught up in it.

The next guy who might have to worry about this will be Roki Sasaki, who just turned 22 but is pretty MLB-ready. I have said a few times I don't see why (except money!) he'd wait until 2027 to try to make the move. 2026 seems likely, outside chance at 2025, if testing himself is the ultimate goal. Also Munetaka Murakami, if he remembers how to hit at some point next year.
 

EyeBob

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Thanks for that information
There have been several changes to the MLB-NPB posting system over the years, but this is not directly related to that.

Simply, as @simplicio beat me to, it's just because of their ages when coming over. Ohtani was 23, while Yamamoto is 25, which is the cutoff for being subject to the MLB CBA international bonus pool rules. Here's a bit of an explainer: https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-faq-c262340780 but in general if you search for "MLB international bonus pool" you'll find stuff on it. I think it was more intended to stop shady agents from signing kids out of the Dominican as 12yos etc, but Ohtani was unfortunately caught up in it.

The next guy who might have to worry about this will be Roki Sasaki, who just turned 22 but is pretty MLB-ready. I have said a few times I don't see why (except money!) he'd wait until 2027 to try to make the move. 2026 seems likely, outside chance at 2025, if testing himself is the ultimate goal. Also Munetaka Murakami, if he remembers how to hit at some point next year.
Thanks for that information. So when a player from Japan comes over before his 25th year, how long is an entry-level contract for. Does MLB state that or is that a negotiation? Also why 25 and not a younger age like 18 or 20 or even 21?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Thanks for that information

Thanks for that information. So when a player from Japan comes over before his 25th year, how long is an entry-level contract for. Does MLB state that or is that a negotiation? Also why 25 and not a younger age like 18 or 20 or even 21?
"Entry level contract" is the same for a Japanese player (under or over 25) as it is for any other MLB rookie...6 years of team control before he's eligible for unrestricted free agency.

I believe the age of 25 thing for Japanese players is a protection for the Japanese professional leagues. Younger Japanese players being subject to the MLB international bonus pool is intended as a disincentive to leave Japan and therefore an incentive to stay and play NPB. Waiving that requirement once the player reaches age 25 is about protecting the posting process, which is a benefit to both the player and his Japanese team. The bigger MLB contract a player secures, the bigger posting fee his team gets.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Is there any reason a Japanese player -- a prodigy, really -- couldn't come over and play a year of college ball and then go into the draft?
My belief is that it depends on if they've submitted to play in the NPB or not.

Someone like YY could not simply leave the NPB, go to play college ball a year and then, go into the MLB draft.

On the other hand, I believe what you are suggesting is exactly what Rintaro Sasaki is doing (https://www.espn.co.uk/mlb/story/_/id/38625565/japanese-hs-phenom-rintaro-sasaki-skips-npb-play-ncaa-baseball). If someone contradicts what I say - listen to them instead - but I think this article answers it. Hope that helps.
 

Tokyo Sox

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I believe the age of 25 thing for Japanese players is a protection for the Japanese professional leagues. Younger Japanese players being subject to the MLB international bonus pool is intended as a disincentive to leave Japan and therefore an incentive to stay and play NPB. Waiving that requirement once the player reaches age 25 is about protecting the posting process, which is a benefit to both the player and his Japanese team. The bigger MLB contract a player secures, the bigger posting fee his team gets.
I don’t think this is true. Or at least, it’s counter to most of what I can remember reading about the rule change at the time. Most of the reporting was that it was to stop shady recruiting practices in Latin America, and Ohtani (and now others) just got caught up in it. I don’t think the rule was made with NPB in mind at all.

Is there any reason a Japanese player -- a prodigy, really -- couldn't come over and play a year of college ball and then go into the draft?
I’m not sure about the exact letter of the law but I think that would probably work. Rintaro Sasaki (no relation to Roki) is supposedly going to try college ball in the US next year; I’m not sure what his future holds but he finished high school as the career HS HR champ, and would have been a first round pick domestically. I doubt his plan is to circumvent the system though.

Ohtani and later Roki were both heavily scouted in high school. There was talk at the time of either of them skipping the NPB draft andsigning directly with an MLB club, but both opted to stay. Different to what you’re asking about, but at some point, it will happen.
 

chrisfont9

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Hmmm... well I 100% want him on the Sox, but maybe won't feel too awful if he goes somewhere else for absurd money. His floor, IMO, is super high, I will say that. Beyond there, it's hard to say.

I saw some tweets where people are saying the Sox like Montgomery better than Snell or Nola. Seems plausible, and indicative of them prioritizing consistency over the high ceiling years we have seen from the other two.
 

beautokyo

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Is there any reason a Japanese player -- a prodigy, really -- couldn't come over and play a year of college ball and then go into the draft?
I knew I'd read something.....






Farm To Fame

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Japan's No. 1 high school prospect, Rintaro Sasaki, is skipping the NPB Draft and coming straight to the US The 6'0" 250 lb. 1B set the record for most career high school HR (138) He is rumored to be heading to Vanderbilt
 

jon abbey

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I knew I'd read something.....

Farm To Fame
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Japan's No. 1 high school prospect, Rintaro Sasaki, is skipping the NPB Draft and coming straight to the US The 6'0" 250 lb. 1B set the record for most career high school HR (138) He is rumored to be heading to Vanderbilt
4 posts above you, same info.
 

Mantush

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He might not be anything more than AAA depth, but the Red Sox signed Helcris Olivarez to a minor league deal. He's still pretty young (23) so it's possible they see something in him they think they can fix or improve. I like the idea of stockpiling young, live arms as depth over older pitchers like Dermody, etc. that were signed to fill spots last year.

Helcris Olivarez was signed to a minor league deal Wednesday, according to Minor League Baseball’s transaction wire. The Red Sox assigned him to Triple-A Worcester, releasing catcher Oscar Rangel as the corresponding move.

An MiLB signing in November might not seem all that exciting, but Olivarez has the tools to be a real contributor sooner rather than later. The 23-year-old has reached 101 mph and was once viewed as the best pitching prospect in the Colorado Rockies’ system.
https://nesn.com/2023/11/red-sox-kickstart-offseason-with-low-risk-high-reward-signing/

Baseball America wrote this about him back in 2022 when they ranked him as the 15th best prospect in the Rockies system:

Track Record: Signed for a mere $77,000 in 2016, Olivarez spent his first two seasons in the Dominican Summer League before making his stateside debut for Rookie-level Grand Junction in 2019. He turned in a raw but promising summer in the Pioneer League and had a big 2020 with solid showings at the alternate training site and in instructional league. Olivarez was added to the 40-man roster after the season and entered 2021 with big expectations, but he posted a 6.05 ERA for High-A Spokane.

Scouting Report: Olivarez’s raw stuff is electric. He has easy fastball velocity up to 100 mph and usually sits in the high 90s. But his command is questionable and his offspeed pitches need honing, with an average changeup and a curveball that can be flat. Cleaning up and simplifying his delivery will help him achieve the release-point consistency needed to become a bonafide starter. He already creates uncomfortable at-bats from either side, but to complement his plus heat, Olivarez needs to keep a better lid on his emotions on the mound.

The Future: Olivarez can be a hard-throwing back-end starter if he can learn to command his fastball. If the command doesn’t come soon, he profiles as a late-inning bullpen arm.
 

simplicio

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He might not be anything more than AAA depth, but the Red Sox signed Helcris Olivarez to a minor league deal. He's still pretty young (23) so it's possible they see something in him they think they can fix or improve. I like the idea of stockpiling young, live arms as depth over older pitchers like Dermody, etc. that were signed to fill spots last year.


https://nesn.com/2023/11/red-sox-kickstart-offseason-with-low-risk-high-reward-signing/

Baseball America wrote this about him back in 2022 when they ranked him as the 15th best prospect in the Rockies system:
As JM3 noted in the minor league thread, the AAA placement is almost certainly provisional (Song got the same designation initially when he came back from PHI), as Helcris has never pitched above A+. He's a ways off still.
 

bsj

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Completely unrelated but does anyone else remember that dude that was obsessed with Daisuke Matsuzaka and had a website constantly updating the state of his posting and negotiations?
 

Tokyo Sox

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I remember there was this website dedicated to the pursuit of Dice K in the months leading up to his signing. Cant remember what it was. Not sure if it was from there.
Completely unrelated but does anyone else remember that dude that was obsessed with Daisuke Matsuzaka and had a website constantly updating the state of his posting and negotiations?
Unfortunately it seems like no one gave you a satisfactory answer last time you asked this 18 months ago, and I can't remember either. I think you're talking about "Dice-K Tracker" or "Matsuzaka Tracker" or something like that. It was a guy who then did a few more such trackers, I think maybe for Darvish and Ma-kun ahead of their postings. Not to be confused with the more established NPB Tracker site.

I thought maybe it was Mike Plugh who wrote about NPB for BP for a while, but all my searches both under his name and in general turned up empty, sorry. Maybe someone with better Google skills can find a 2006-07 era "Matsuzaka Tracker."

EDIT! n/m, it was Plugh, I found it linked at the bottom of his first BP article in 2007. It was called Matsuzaka Watch, not Tracker:
https://matsuzaka.blogspot.com/

2nd edit, this made me lol:
Matsuzaka Watch started at my Yankees blog Canyon of Heroes on March 26, 2006 and was dedicated to bringing Yankee fans information about a dynamic pitching force from Japan. Ironically, the first comment attached to the post there comes from someone calling themselves Sawx Rule and reads, "Hey, I think you made a mistake in your picture. Shouldn't you have Matsuzaka in a Red Sox's uniform?" The post featured a poorly "Photoshopped" likeness of Daisuke in a Yankee uniform (see left).
 
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Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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The rotation will not include Aaron Nola. Resigns with Phillies for 7 yrs $172M.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/phillies-reportedly-sign-aaron-nola-to-seven-year-deal.html
That’s a shame. (edited out because I wasn’t sure how “reliable” we’re considering Heyman - from the article - but @jon abbey post seems like it’s been corroborated elsewhere). He was the first (of 3) starters I wanted added to the rotation this year.

For what it’s worth, I may have considered 8/$200m so as not to be painted into a Boras corner. Since this means the Sox will likely have to give Montgomery something in the 6/$175m range (using Rodon’s 6/$162m as a benchmark), and I think I’d rather give Nola $200m (and to be clear, I’d still give JM $175m as opposed to another season of unwatchable starters).

With the reports increasingly pointing to West Coast for Yamamoto, with the Mets also in the picture, it seems like the Sox are kind of in a tight spot where - assuming he is the preferred target after Ian Browne’s report - the Sox kind of need to hand (Montgomery) Boras an open checkbook, which isn’t a great spot to be in.

Of course, it’s a better spot than trotting out the garbage rotation we’ve been throwing out there following the 2019 season, but not ideal.

I tend to think of Montgomery as more of a solid 2 / outstanding 3 starter as opposed to a #1 (Nola), but the Sox have painted themselves into such a corner with atrocious MLB starters (ex Bello and Crawford isn’t “atrocious” but he’s also more of a 5) and a pitching side of the farm system that has nothing ready this season or likely next, that they’re probably going to have to pay him like a #1.

Or really dip into the cream of the positional prospect crop to acquire a #1, then sign a #3.

I was hopeful it’d be sign a #1, trade for said 2/3, but it looks like with Nola off the board and the Sox not seeming to be in the “front runners” for Yamamoto, that won’t be the case.

A front half of the rotation that is all 2 starters (ie Bello, Montgomery, trade acquisition) and then let’s say “Iwagama” and Crawford at the back is still a vast improvement, but they really now seem to be in a spot of needing to overpay a Boras client.
 
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jon abbey

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That’s a shame. 7/$180m/$25.715AAV is something I would have liked to have seen the Sox give Nola. Would he have ever left Philly - totally unknowable - but he was the first (of 3) starters I wanted added to the rotation this year.
It's pretty knowable that 7/180 wouldn't have done it as it's been reported he turned down higher offers to stay in a situation he liked. Maybe an extra year and a $26M AAV would have done it? That would have been 8/208.
 

YTF

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That’s a shame. (edited out because I wasn’t sure how “reliable” we’re considering Heyman - from the article - but @jon abbey post seems like it’s been corroborated elsewhere). He was the first (of 3) starters I wanted added to the rotation this year.

For what it’s worth, I may have considered 8/$200m so as not to be painted into a Boras corner. Since this means the Sox will likely have to give Montgomery something in the 6/$175m range (using Rodon’s 6/$162m as a benchmark), and I think I’d rather give Nola $200m (and to be clear, I’d still give JM $175m as opposed to another season of unwatchable starters).

With the reports increasingly pointing to West Coast for Yamamoto, with the Mets also in the picture
, it seems like the Sox are kind of in a tight spot where - assuming he is the preferred target after Ian Browne’s report - the Sox kind of need to hand (Montgomery) Boras an open checkbook, which isn’t a great spot to be in.

Of course, it’s a better spot than trotting out the garbage rotation we’ve been throwing out there following the 2019 season, but not ideal.

I tend to think of Montgomery as more of a solid 2 / outstanding 3 starter as opposed to a #1 (Nola), but the Sox have painted themselves into such a corner with atrocious MLB starters (ex Bello and Crawford isn’t “atrocious” but he’s also more of a 5) and a pitching side of the farm system that has nothing ready this season or likely next, that they’re probably going to have to pay him like a #1.

Or really dip into the cream of the positional prospect crop to acquire a #1, then sign a #3.

I was hopeful it’d be sign a #1, trade for said 2/3, but it looks like with Nola off the board and the Sox not seeming to be in the “front runners” for Yamamoto, that won’t be the case.

A front half of the rotation that is all 2 starters (ie Bello, Montgomery, trade acquisition) and then let’s say “Iwagama” and Crawford at the back is still a vast improvement, but they really now seem to be in a spot of needing to overpay a Boras client.
Just curious, what reports are you referring to? Has there been any word at all from the Yamamoto Camp as to a preference?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Just curious, what reports are you referring to? Has there been any word at all from the Yamamoto Camp as to a preference?
I genuinely don’t know if we’re considering Heyman reliable or not. But he had a piece in the post two days ago stating several sources said Yamamoto preferred the West Coast, then another talking about the Mets and Yankees in on him too.

Most other articles are referencing Heyman when they say the same.

I believe Yamamoto is represented by Joel Wolfe (not Boras) so I gave it (personally) more credence than I would were Boras his agent.

(Sorry, not sure how to link from an iPad, but the Post reports - Heyman - pop up first on a quick search, with other articles based off that.)
 

simplicio

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I just figured Boras was having Heyman float the YY West coast thing to drive up Montgomery and Snell prices along the eastern seaboard.
 

YTF

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I genuinely don’t know if we’re considering Heyman reliable or not. But he had a piece in the post two days ago stating several sources said Yamamoto preferred the West Coast, then another talking about the Mets and Yankees in on him too.

Most other articles are referencing Heyman when they say the same.

I believe Yamamoto is represented by Joel Wolfe (not Boras) so I gave it (personally) more credence than I would were Boras his agent.

(Sorry, not sure how to link from an iPad, but the Post reports - Heyman - pop up first on a quick search, with other articles based off that.)
Thanks fellas
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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I just figured Boras was having Heyman float the YY West coast thing to drive up Montgomery and Snell prices along the eastern seaboard.
Interesting - and Machiavellian - nicely done.

I was admittedly thinking of it more from an angle of it being more reliable from the camp of an unrelated agency, but certainly plausible.

Hopefully the Sox can ink one of Yamamoto or Montgomery pretty early. Not just because a top half of the rotation piece (well, two in my opinion) being desperately needed, but also to show the secondary pieces (say they prefer to sign a 3 as well instead of trading for one),a right handed bat, and a 4th SP that the team is choosing to do a 180 and actually try to contend for the pennant and not have another season where everything needs to break (unpredictably) right in order to maybe sneak into the last WC spot.

Nola was the piece I really wanted, but oh well.
 

Bosoxman2004

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It is a bit concerning to me that a huge pitching domino is already off the board (Nola) before the Red Sox have even announced who their Pitching Coach is going to be. I hope I'm wrong but I feel like the Sox are still playing catch up to everyone else.
 

chrisfont9

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It is a bit concerning to me that a huge pitching domino is already off the board (Nola) before the Red Sox have even announced who their Pitching Coach is going to be. I hope I'm wrong but I feel like the Sox are still playing catch up to everyone else.
Well a lot of people seem to believe they do have a pitching coach, it's just not announced yet. Also I'm sure it helps to have the guy be part of the conversation but they have plenty of people in place who can tell free agents how things are gonna go.
 

YTF

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It is a bit concerning to me that a huge pitching domino is already off the board (Nola) before the Red Sox have even announced who their Pitching Coach is going to be. I hope I'm wrong but I feel like the Sox are still playing catch up to everyone else.
One guy's off the board and suddenly we're playing catch up to EVERYONE else? Considering the Breslow hire and that he was brought in for his very clear philosophy on pitching and the reports that he's bringing in Andrew Bailey I would be more hopeful than concerned that one guy is off the board. If Yamamoto is the primary target, do you opt for another guy just to be first? Also if it is true that Nola wanted to stay in Philly, was he ever really on the board?
 

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One guy's off the board and suddenly we're playing catch up to EVERYONE else? Considering the Breslow hire and that he was brought in for his very clear philosophy on pitching and the reports that he's bringing in Andrew Bailey I would be more hopeful than concerned that one guy is off the board. If Yamamoto is the primary target, do you opt for another guy just to be first? Also if it is true that Nola wanted to stay in Philly, was he ever really on the board?
All great points. I pointed it out the other day elsewhere on the board, but last year the first significant free agent signing happened after Thanksgiving and that's fairly typical of every off-season. The only notable moves before that were teams re-signing their own guys (Mets re-signing Diaz, Yankees re-signing Rizzo, Giants re-signing Pederson, etc). That Aaron Nola fits that pattern doesn't really suggest that anyone is "playing catch-up". It's a long winter. No need to panic in mid-November.

Every year, the off-season runs at the same pace and every year, there's always a largely unfounded groundswell of concern about certain teams not acting fast enough. We'll see a flurry of activity at the winter meetings in two weeks because we always do. Until then, the only opportunities being missed probably weren't really opportunities in the first place.
 

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One guy's off the board and suddenly we're playing catch up to EVERYONE else? Considering the Breslow hire and that he was brought in for his very clear philosophy on pitching and the reports that he's bringing in Andrew Bailey I would be more hopeful than concerned that one guy is off the board. If Yamamoto is the primary target, do you opt for another guy just to be first? Also if it is true that Nola wanted to stay in Philly, was he ever really on the board?
Breslower!!!!
 

JM3

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The Athletic did a look at how Breslow has recruited pitchers like Jameson Taillon & Marcus Stroman with the Cubs.

“The Cubs were actually the only team that went out of their way to meet me in person,” Taillon said after the signing. “That meant a lot to me. Just to be able to sit down and have a conversation face-to-face was nice. Me and Breslow sat down and talked for two hours. We were probably planning on a 30-minute meeting but we kind of started nerding out on pitching there and we just kept going and going.”
“One thing we had done was try to get as familiar as we possibly could with the player and not just the performance, but what matters and what’s important,” Breslow said of connecting with Taillon. “Trying to take a sincerity and authenticity to those conversations because ultimately players make decisions for any number of reasons, and authentic relationships and feeling like you fit is one of the biggest drivers there.”
& there's other bits about how Breslow embraces both the human aspect as a former player & the analytics side.

“He kind of views it from both sides, the analytics side but he also understands the human factor as a baseball player,” said Breslow’s former teammate and catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

“You bring someone in who’s very analytical and they kind of forget the human factor and don’t communicate well when it comes to the baseball side of things. Then you put someone who is baseball-minded and they don’t communicate with the analytics. I think he’ll bring that aspect to it where he can communicate and everyone can co-exist.”
https://theathletic.com/5072351/2023/11/20/craig-breslow-free-agency-blueprint/
 

chawson

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Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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As someone that advocated a Taillon signing last off-season (admittedly after Verlander, Bassitt, Eovaldi and Wacha, but way ahead of giving starts to Sale, Paxton and Kluber) , I will say that he was a good bit better (or at least the results were a good bit better - I don't know how to isolate FIP, xERA, etc for splits) the second half of the season. That sn't unheard of for players acclimating to new surroundings to have an adjustment period - sometimes even the entire first year. Someone like Goldschmidt comes to mind as a very recent example.

In the 2nd half of last season, Taillon put up 15 starts to the tune of a 3.70ERA, 1.175whip and a 4.05 k/bb ratio. Pretty close to his career averages of a 4.00ERA (3.93 FIP), 1.223whip and 3.63 k/bb ratio.

Or, put another way, if I could have Taillon on the Sox and filling a 3/4 position in the rotation at 3/$51m/$17m right now, I'd be fine taking that contract. Though I think in terms of expected performance this year, the Sox rotation consists of Bello, a #5 (Crawford) and nothing at all.

However, there are certainly pitchers out there (were out there) this year I'd rather have than Taillon (in no particular order, Nola, Yamamoto, Montgomery, Stroman, another turn of Wacha and I'm intrigued by Imanaga). But I'd also far rather have Taillon at his present deal than giving rotation spots to Sale or depending on names like Paxton, Kluber, Pivetta, etc.

Now, on to discussion of guys that might actually end up on the Sox (but I don't think Breslow, or the Cubs, were off-base in their pursuit of Taillon nor the deal he was ultimately given).
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
15,260
As someone that advocated a Taillon signing last off-season (admittedly after Verlander, Bassitt, Eovaldi and Wacha, but way ahead of giving starts to Sale, Paxton and Kluber) , I will say that he was a good bit better (or at least the results were a good bit better - I don't know how to isolate FIP, xERA, etc for splits) the second half of the season. That sn't unheard of for players acclimating to new surroundings to have an adjustment period - sometimes even the entire first year. Someone like Goldschmidt comes to mind as a very recent example.

In the 2nd half of last season, Taillon put up 15 starts to the tune of a 3.70ERA, 1.175whip and a 4.05 k/bb ratio. Pretty close to his career averages of a 4.00ERA (3.93 FIP), 1.223whip and 3.63 k/bb ratio.

Or, put another way, if I could have Taillon on the Sox and filling a 3/4 position in the rotation at 3/$51m/$17m right now, I'd be fine taking that contract. Though I think in terms of expected performance this year, the Sox rotation consists of Bello, a #5 (Crawford) and nothing at all.

However, there are certainly pitchers out there (were out there) this year I'd rather have than Taillon (in no particular order, Nola, Yamamoto, Montgomery, Stroman, another turn of Wacha and I'm intrigued by Imanaga). But I'd also far rather have Taillon at his present deal than giving rotation spots to Sale or depending on names like Paxton, Kluber, Pivetta, etc.

Now, on to discussion of guys that might actually end up on the Sox (but I don't think Breslow, or the Cubs, were off-base in their pursuit of Taillon nor the deal he was ultimately given).
The hoops you jump through to prop up other team's pitchers while denigrating the Red Sox ones are always impressive. You know the Red Sox also would have been a new team for Taillon, right? Who played in more of a hitters' park with a worse defense?

Also, those don't seem too different from Sale's 2nd half stats...

8 starts to the "tune" of a 3.92 ERA (3.85 xFIP), 1.05 WHIP and 3.88 k/bb ratio.

On the season, Sale was worth 2.1 fWAR (1.7 bWAR) & Taillon was worth 1.6 fWAR (-0.1 bWAR). But Taillon is someone we totally need & Sale is a scrub who should be nowhere near the rotation.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
24,612
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Bresbytarian?
Amazing.

Someone had to set the tone for the new season. Can't wait to hear from the Never Brezzers.
I'd be curious to see what the spread of expectations are here. Obviously, I want Breslow to do well, but there's a certain kind of familiar hubris to the argument that we're just going to suck up our first choices out of a bunch of tier-1 FA pitchers, or somehow magically make appealing trades for the latter. And we may as well just grab Ohtani too.

All that said, I expect to see some activity.

Perhaps it will be dramatic. But the lack of dramatic splashes will not necessarily mean that Breslow made poor choices.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,678
Or, put another way, if I could have Taillon on the Sox and filling a 3/4 position in the rotation at 3/$51m/$17m right now, I'd be fine taking that contract. Though I think in terms of expected performance this year, the Sox rotation consists of Bello, a #5 (Crawford) and nothing at all.
You're right, Taillon was better after the ASB. I could see him adding some security to the rotation, but I think aging and expensive league-average starter is less appealing to me as a profile type than elite starter at any cost or promising pre-arb starter. In other words, I think I'd rather have Houck or Whitlock in the rotation next year than Taillon at 3/$51.

And (fake edit, echoing JM3's post), I think you're discounting Sale a little too heavily. I get that everyone's done with him, but he did put up 102 innings with roughly the same xFIP as Jesus Luzardo, Bobby Miller and Logan Gilbert. His injury history is a running joke, but there's more reason than not to expect he'll contribute at a solid level.