In fairness in his first four years the Tigers record was 241-406 with a high water mark of 72-90 in his third year. In his fifth year the Tigers began winning. Boston is 269-268 in the last four seasons. If the Red Sox had played .373 ball the last four years people would be at the gates with flamethrowers and machetes.
This idea that Moncada and Kopech being somehow big losses is a huge counterfactual. Moncada hasnt been good in years; maybe if he didnt have injuries, hed be better, but hes been a slightly above replacement player while on the field for years. It isnt just that hes missing time, its that he isnt good while hes on the field. Kopech has thrown 130 innings this year... and has similarily been terrible.
Theo put together great teams working under a very different system that Im sure he couldn’t recreate today. And he lost a little off his fastball towards the end- Crawford, Lugo, Gonzalez, not getting Beltre long term.
Seeing it lain out this way (either version, really) leads me to think that the lack of consistency and continuity may be the larger issue more than any one PBOs. But I guess that’s at odds with what I’ve said before which is that the PBOs is just the most visible part of a large system and isn’t necessarily the sole person responsible for everything the way we here discuss it.
OK, let's take this as a thesis, not a narrative. "DD winnowed down a robust player development team." If so, and if development is far more important than drafted talent, we'd expect to see successful development of just about any draftees under the Cherington regime.
That's a factual statement. Their sports science staff dropped by 50% under Dombrowski and they lost and didn't replace instructors all over the minor league system. Brian Abraham has spoken on the rebuilding of the minor league instruction infrastructure a multitude of times. The implication that "Cherington was doing it right and Dombrowski was doing it wrong" is not even close to the point I was making. The point was that there was a serious lack of investment in the infrastructure under Dombrowski that was built by Theo and then Cherington, that needed to be overhauled under Bloom. You can't look at players like Bello who were acquired when they were 16 years old and just blindly say "Dombrowski did that" when significant steps needed to be made in that players development to get him where he is today. That's not to discount his ability to identify players but to speak to the fact that he did a poor job on this part of his job description. There is no way you can look at the players who were overseas or in the lower minors when he left and say they would be the same players today without the last regime's investment. I don't know how anyone could argue that.
This is a great post. Dombrowski’s “blind spot” was no less damaging than Bloom’s long term but a lot harder to suss out for the average fan.
View: https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/1705635731740275080
Team was at its best with a Yalie running it so maybe this is good news for the pitching
The same exact thing just happened with David Stearns and the Mets, the Brewers didn’t give permission so he had to wait for his contract to expire.
Of all the possible alternate realities it would be fun to rabbit hole, the one where the Sox don't develop a crazed fixation with AGon and then sign Beltre long term, keeping Youk at 1B until Rizzo can take over is my favorite.
Given the extensive work that the Red Sox organization did to lay the groundwork for the day they could negotiate with Masataka Yoshida, I think it's fair to assume that they have done at least an equal amount of preparation for Yamamoto's upcoming availability.
You cannot hold onto crap players indefinitely and think they're going to appreciate in value. They are in fact doing to depreciate in value. Take Devin Marrero for instance, a typical meh Cherington draft pick, lovingly nurtured in the Cherington Development Machine Creche that was later set afire by Dombrowski.
Moncada has had 3 seasons where injuries limited him to 104 games or less, including this year, and you're trying to say injuries don't tell the story? Kopech missed 2 entire seasons, then was very good in 2021 and 2022, and you're making an argument based on one season? Sorry, I'm not impressed.
Your original argument was that Dombrowski made a bad trade because the players he traded, if they weren’t injured, would be really good.
They traded Basabe twice in the same season? Otherwise a good synopsis but would even be better with +/- WAR, or whatever, for all the trades.
Literally no one is disputing that he kept the right players. Literally no one. You have to let this go. The job in 2019 had changed because there was nothing left to trade in 2019 and the Red Sox future was full of spiraling payroll and two injured pitchers collecting $60 million per year. Just saying, "Oh yeah, but what about the following DSL players‽‽‽ Huh‽‽‽ Huh‽‽‽" doesn't change the fact that when you're dealing DSL guys for major league talent you need to give up a shitload of them and you don't get superstars in exchange. The job changed and Dombrowski wasn't the right man for the job as it existed at the end of the 2019 season. Much like Bloom wasn't the right guy for the job facing the Red Sox today. Gawd do I hope the Bloomaphiles are less annoying and we don't need to be reading their diatribes in 2028.
But Boston does have his former teammate. Which, all things being equal, likely gives them the edge (obviously there's always the chance that the Mets go full frontal Steve Cohen and roll out a 12/420 contract for Yamamoto, but until that happens...).
The Mets also have Senga, who may not be as personally close to Yamamoto as Yoshida but has the huge advantage of being a pitcher and not a position player, and he is also very eager to recruit:
Bingo. Especially in a season like this where, the press and fan base are killing the team and there's uncertainty in the team's F.O.
I have to let it go? Dude - these are the world's facts, not my own private imaginings. And it may be unfortunate for the position you've staked out that this isn't a simple situation, but it's not some kind of personal diatribe. The only reason I'm responding is because I'd rather look at the data and try to get an accurate take on what happened, than push some kind of narrative. For the life of me, I can't figure out why you are so fixated on your view of what happened that you can't adjust it, and can't seem to go a page without repeating it. Like literally - why do you care?
You're welcome to add the +/- WAR, or any other notes if you're so inclined.
I was simply pointing out that the Red Sox have been quite active in Japan, as evidenced by the extensive work done in preparation for Yoshida's posting. While contact with the player is forbidden until the posting happens, their reps are certainly aware of what MLB teams are doing.
As a matter of fact, at the end of 2019, Sox top-20 prospects per Soxprospects.com.
Also do we know they are actually friends? They were teammates for five or six years but that doesn't mean they hung out a lot. Some tiny interval of familiarity that Yamamoto would gain from having Yoshida around doesn't seem like a driving factor in a decision as big as this, as I am sure he knows. The Sox will have to bring the money and the case for them being future winners to stay in this race. Thankfully they have their recent 2004-2018 history, or the case for winning would be pretty thin.
And it’s 100% irrelevant to the question that faced the Red Sox at the end of 2019. You can keep saying “But he kept the right guys!!!” but it’s not answer to the question that the ownership group had. That question was “Where do we go from here?” and the barren upper minors meant that there was no way to trade themselves into a perennial contender. And it doesn’t matter whose fault that situation was, that was the reality they were dealing with. And the man for that job wasn’t Dombrowski, much like the man for the current job wasn’t Bloom.
Sure but I think pitching your org to a Japanese player, i.e. someone who absolutely doesn't remember an ALCS from two years ago, that probably doesn't help the case. They have to sell the roster going forward and the organization's commitment to winning titles.
