That risk, though, goes down precipitously with a 3-year deal to Sonny Gray...just one of the reasons I really want this to happen.
What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Probably, it just seems like the Red Sox path to relevancy and short term contention is being right about two big money FA starters- which seems like a really difficult thing to nail. It’s not like the Sox are going to be the only team to place a high value in a young starter.
I believe we are in agreement about probably only signing one and ideally acquiring the other via trade, though.
So even if they are willing to spend what it takes to get him, what are the odds that the Sox end up with Yamamoto? Aren't there like at least 10 other teams that will be in the hunt for him?
We are. I think we may differ just a bit on how much control the acquired young starter should have, but honestly, I think that my dream of a rotation with a top 3 of Yamamoto, Bello, and Burnes for the next 7-8 years blocks my rational thinking.
You don't actually need to be "right" about the long term contracts for short-term relevancy. You just need to hope the beginning of the contracts when the value should be the best work out as expected.
& that if you're wrong, it's in the future when you hopefully have enough cost-controlled talent to work around it. That's why signing those contracts the last few years prior to the infrastructure being in place would have been foolish because the best years likely would have been wasted.
But yeah, we'll see how it all goes.
The Red Sox already have a top of the rotation starter, they don’t need two more. Yamamoto will be fine, but with Urías’s legal problems the price on Yoshi just went up. Boston should probably count on that AAV being in the $25-$30 million range now. But with cheap positional talent finally making its way to Boston that contract will be easier to carry.
They do have his former teammate here. I think that all things being equal that might give them the edge. But if the Mets go full frontal Steve Cohen then Boston will be left bargain hunting again.
Brayan Bello, if you’re going to throw out the “he’s a #3 starter” trope you need to find me 60 better pitchers. And good luck to you if you try.
I’m not getting my hopes up about Yamamoto. There are enough drunken sailors out there that make me skeptical BOS would win a bidding war. Yes, I know they can compete in that arena, but I don’t see them willing to do so. Someone is going to Xander him with a 10/250 offer. I imagine when he does sign somewhere else, the reaction here will be like Xander’s deal.
I don’t see a 10/250 deal for a 25 year old starter being that much of an issue for a team that’s shown the willingness to pay people through their age 35 season. It’s the Mets (or someone like that) going 12/336 that gets Boston to rethink things.
Relieved and mocking San Diego?
I think the Sox will go very big on this one. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they're the ones to go 10/250 if they truly believe in him.
Among pitchers who have thrown 80+ innings, he’s 84th in FIP, 55th in xFIP, 114th in K rate, 72nd in fWAR.
I think it would be nuts to give someone of his frame and career a deal that goes through age 35. I’m going to assume he’ll age like Pedro until I witness otherwise. That may be fear-mongering, but this is an ownership group that already has expressed a dislike for paying market rates on long term deals for pitchers well into their 30’s. When they made an exception, they got seriously burned.
My best guess right now would be topping out at 6 + 1 option at just under $180 mil (including the option.
edit: That definitely fits your description of going big. I just don’t think it’ll be nearly big enough.
10/250 seems almost like too low an AAV for a contract that long, no? For a 25 year old who hasn’t played in the bigs, will he want to lock himself into a deal that long? Of course, the guarantee is likely appealing. Imagine he will want opt outs after a few years in order to cash in if he’s the real deal or get out if the team he’s on stinks.
I've been concerned about Aaron Nola's arm, but this seems like a good sign.
View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1700347040947933427
View: https://twitter.com/RotoClegg/status/1700347040947933427
Because it's been our killer for two years in a row now, here are this winters' FA ranked by IP/start (this year, last 3 years, total starter IP last 3 years):
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 7.05 7.32 527.2
Aaron Nola 6.14 6.06 557.2
Eduardo Rodriguez 5.92 5.41 379
Sonny Gray 5.82 5.35 418
Kyle Gibson 5.82 5.76 518.1
Jordan Montgomery 5.77 5.53 497.1
Lucas Giolito 5.60 5.58 497
Marcus Stroman 5.59 5.51 446.1
Blake Snell 5.55 5.22 417.2
Seth Lugo 5.53 5.53 121.1 (no starts in 2021-22)
Martin Perez 5.42 5.47 404.2
Jack Flaherty 5.36 5.17 248.1
Frankie Montas (2020-22) 5.36 5.48 384
Kenta Maeda 4.92 5.22 256.2
Andrew Heaney 4.90 4.95 317
Hyun-Jin Ryu 4.86 5.43 239
Luis Severino 4.85 5.11 189.1
Jake Odorizzi (2020-22) 4.83 4.57 224
Chris Flexen 4.67 5.49 357
Carlos Carrasco 4.5 5.78 295.2
Sure do wish we'd gotten Gibson instead of Kluber this year. Actually wouldn't mind him at all as a third acquisition for a #5; he's been solid forever and his peripherals outperform his 5.12 ERA significantly.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 7.05 7.32 527.2
Aaron Nola 6.14 6.06 557.2
Eduardo Rodriguez 5.92 5.41 379
Sonny Gray 5.82 5.35 418
Kyle Gibson 5.82 5.76 518.1
Jordan Montgomery 5.77 5.53 497.1
Lucas Giolito 5.60 5.58 497
Marcus Stroman 5.59 5.51 446.1
Blake Snell 5.55 5.22 417.2
Seth Lugo 5.53 5.53 121.1 (no starts in 2021-22)
Martin Perez 5.42 5.47 404.2
Jack Flaherty 5.36 5.17 248.1
Frankie Montas (2020-22) 5.36 5.48 384
Kenta Maeda 4.92 5.22 256.2
Andrew Heaney 4.90 4.95 317
Hyun-Jin Ryu 4.86 5.43 239
Luis Severino 4.85 5.11 189.1
Jake Odorizzi (2020-22) 4.83 4.57 224
Chris Flexen 4.67 5.49 357
Carlos Carrasco 4.5 5.78 295.2
Sure do wish we'd gotten Gibson instead of Kluber this year. Actually wouldn't mind him at all as a third acquisition for a #5; he's been solid forever and his peripherals outperform his 5.12 ERA significantly.
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Color me skeptical about fWAR for pitchers (any metric that rates the remains of Chris Sale over Bello needs fine tuning). Per bWAR he’s in the top ten amongst starters. Personally I prefer Baseball Prospectus’s WARP for pitchers, where he rates 26th. And that’s as a ground ball pitcher pitching in front of the worst defense in baseball. Next year they’ll have Story and Urias up the middle, which will provide even better Bello results.
I’m not interested in an argument about whether Bello is a #2 or #3 starter. I’ll be ecstatic if he’s a bona fide ace in 2024. But your metric is odd. Being the 60th-best pitcher in MLB doesn’t make you an ace, or a #2 starter on a competitive team. The point remains valid: the Red Sox need two more top-of-the-rotation starters in addition to Bello.
When you say “X is a #3 starter” you’re saying that there are, at a minimum, 60 better starters out there. I don’t use the archaic “#1/#2/#3” terminology because, as you’re specifying in this post, it’s a 100% subjective judgment. Me, I prefer to see where they are relative to all other starters. Per BP Bello is knocking on the top 25 of starters. Unless you think that his career has peaked in year two, he is going to get better. And be pitching in front of a better defense. He’s a fine top of the rotation starter. Due to the downstream weakness, they could definitely use another, though.
Umm, you introduced the 1-2-3 terminology, not me. I asked you who you think the Sox’s “top-of-the-rotation starter” is. You answered: Bello. I then said we need two top starters in addition to Bello. Whether they’re considered the 1-2 or 1-3 in the rotation isn’t that important to me. Do you disagree?
I agree. Not sure why you think I don’t. I have high hopes for Bello.
Another one or, preferably, two.
Are you arguing that the Red Sox are ONE “ace” away from being a playoff contender in 2024? If so, I disagree.
Not really, there have been 17,963 posts in this thread about “Bello is a #3 starter!!!”. He is not outside the top 50 starters in baseball.
Yes, believe it or not there are teams competing for the title that don’t have three of the top 25 starters in baseball. Also, believe it or not, there is not a formula for winning. There are multiple ways of skinning the cat.
They were a playoff contender this season playing defensively challenged AAA/AAAA guys at SS & 2B most of the year when their best pitcher is a ground ball pitcher. Give them a top 25 starter, combined with Bello’s improvement and actual middle infield defense next year and yes, they’re a contender.
I meant in our discussion.
True, but I still think the Sox are TWO good pitchers away from skinning cats.
edit: who said anything about the Sox needing THREE top 25 starters?
I also don’t want to parse the term “contender” but the Sox have Been out of the wild card running for longer than I can remember, i.e. never really in contention.
Ok. I still think they need two more top starters. And probably only that, though I think the need a RH power bat too.
Not really, though, as many teams- especially the crappy ones, don’t have any top of the rotation starters and some times have several. Bello is good and will probably get better (he’s gonna need to increase the K rate), but the Sox need at least a few pitchers as good as him to contend next year, IMO.
For comparison's sake, here are this year's starters by the same metrics, though there's probably significant opener weirdness present with some of them:
Brayan Bello 5.71 5.41 137
Chris Sale 5.17 4.85 131
Garrett Whitlock 5.17 3.72 70.2
Tanner Houck 5.12 4.77 162.1
Nick Pivetta 5.11 5.27 395
James Paxton 5.05 4.87 97.1
Corey Kluber 4.63 5.10 285.2
Kutter Crawford 4.51 4.66 149
So based on that, can we please only look at the Seth Lugo level and above?
A momentary tangent: there are not 30 #1 and 30 #2 starters just because there are 30 teams with 5 starters each. Rather, there might only be 10 #1 starters, 20 #2's, maybe 50-70 #3's, etc. A #3 is going to be something like a 60 on a 20-80 scale.
"Grossly inadequate" would be my answer to the question posed in the thread title. Bloom will have to make major moves to get Bello some legit partners in the rotation.
Thanks for doing this. It's sort of a fascinating illustration of how relatively few innings starters go, even the best ones.
Then just say “A #1 starter is someone I like”. Don’t make it complicated.
The first one was Wayne Garland, released five years in.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1988-03-20-sp-2144-story.html
Bello is the only returning starter who’s remotely reliable. They need to sign or trade for 2 more reliable starters. Not reclamation projects. Not flyers. Actual, real live reliable starters.
Those questions aren’t my job to figure out. John Henry pays someone handsomely to do that.
One thing to keep in mind, it has been unusually difficult to pitch for the Red Sox this year. Everybody knows how bad the defense has been this year, but Fenway has also been a strong hitter's park-- 109 park factor for hitters, 108 for pitchers this year. That's a rough combination for pitchers.
Our pitchers have allowed a ridiculous .320 BABIP at Fenway this year. Playing in a good hitter's park with lousy defense has to contribute to that in a big way. (On the road, it's .299.)
Sox pitchers have a 4.85 ERA at home this year, compared to 4.38 on the road.
Any pitchers we bring in will have to contend with Fenway, and while we hope the defense will improve, it's not likely to be very good overall next year.
This year, because the starters have been pulled early so often, the pitching has been absolutely battered in the 4th, 5th and 6th innings. The starters frequently get knocked out in the 4th and 5th, and then are followed by the worst of the bullpen.
ERA by inning:
1: 4.47
2: 4.59
3: 4.41
4: 5.29
5: 5.16
6: 6.23
7: 3.65
8: 3.90
9: 3.63
OPS allowed by number of pitches thrown:
1-25: .770
26-50: .725
51-75: .855
76-100: .776
Obviously bringing in 2 starters who routinely pitch into the 6th inning effectively would be huge. But those guys are rare, and hard to acquire. Especially when you need 2 of them and you need them to them to do that at Fenway with a lousy defense behind them. Even a prototypical "innings eater" who isn't that great overall could help a lot. But figuring out who could do that for this team, with this defense and ballpark, is the hard part.
Quality starts is not a great stat but it's fine for a quick and dirty look at who pitches effectively through 6 innings the most often:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/player/_/view/pitching/table/pitching/sort/qualityStarts/dir/desc
Bello leads the Red Sox with 14 QS in 25 starts this year, which is tied for 27th. Paxton is next with 8 in 19 starts, tied for 75th.
The Red Sox are 26th in baseball with 38 QS out of 143, ahead of only the Tigers, Rockies, Royals and A's. If that doesn't improve dramatically next year, the pitching will suck again. Being near the top of the QS standings doesn't mean much, but if you're down near the bottom, then you are likely to be a bad team.
It's actually pretty surprising the Red Sox have a winning record (so far) with only 38 QS. (All the openers we've used helped in that sense.)
Our pitchers have allowed a ridiculous .320 BABIP at Fenway this year. Playing in a good hitter's park with lousy defense has to contribute to that in a big way. (On the road, it's .299.)
Sox pitchers have a 4.85 ERA at home this year, compared to 4.38 on the road.
Any pitchers we bring in will have to contend with Fenway, and while we hope the defense will improve, it's not likely to be very good overall next year.
This year, because the starters have been pulled early so often, the pitching has been absolutely battered in the 4th, 5th and 6th innings. The starters frequently get knocked out in the 4th and 5th, and then are followed by the worst of the bullpen.
ERA by inning:
1: 4.47
2: 4.59
3: 4.41
4: 5.29
5: 5.16
6: 6.23
7: 3.65
8: 3.90
9: 3.63
OPS allowed by number of pitches thrown:
1-25: .770
26-50: .725
51-75: .855
76-100: .776
Obviously bringing in 2 starters who routinely pitch into the 6th inning effectively would be huge. But those guys are rare, and hard to acquire. Especially when you need 2 of them and you need them to them to do that at Fenway with a lousy defense behind them. Even a prototypical "innings eater" who isn't that great overall could help a lot. But figuring out who could do that for this team, with this defense and ballpark, is the hard part.
Quality starts is not a great stat but it's fine for a quick and dirty look at who pitches effectively through 6 innings the most often:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/player/_/view/pitching/table/pitching/sort/qualityStarts/dir/desc
Bello leads the Red Sox with 14 QS in 25 starts this year, which is tied for 27th. Paxton is next with 8 in 19 starts, tied for 75th.
The Red Sox are 26th in baseball with 38 QS out of 143, ahead of only the Tigers, Rockies, Royals and A's. If that doesn't improve dramatically next year, the pitching will suck again. Being near the top of the QS standings doesn't mean much, but if you're down near the bottom, then you are likely to be a bad team.
It's actually pretty surprising the Red Sox have a winning record (so far) with only 38 QS. (All the openers we've used helped in that sense.)
Very interesting info. Makes me wonder if the solution may largely involve Houck and Whitlock being multi-inning relievers who, along with Winckowski, will be taking a lot of those 5th-6th innings
Jansen, Martin, Schreiber
Bernardino, Murphy (or another LH)
Whitlock, Houck, Winckowksi
FA/Trade SP1, Bello, Sale, FA/Trade SP4, Crawford/Pivetta
Not great, but there’s a path towards winning there that doesn’t seem impossible.
Jansen, Martin, Schreiber
Bernardino, Murphy (or another LH)
Whitlock, Houck, Winckowksi
FA/Trade SP1, Bello, Sale, FA/Trade SP4, Crawford/Pivetta
Not great, but there’s a path towards winning there that doesn’t seem impossible.
I think it is of some use to ask reverse the question, namely what would be required to make the Red Sox a threat to win the division?
The Rays have 2 better pitchers right now than Bello: Glasnow and Efflin. If you go team by team in our division the Red Sox starting pitching isn't close to competitive.
Things have become clearer in a way in the last month. Paxton is not part of the solution. Sale isn't either.
The Red Sox have 4 starters: Bello, Houck, Pivetta and Crawford. As a group they aren't close to good enough.
The Rays have 2 better pitchers right now than Bello: Glasnow and Efflin. If you go team by team in our division the Red Sox starting pitching isn't close to competitive.
Things have become clearer in a way in the last month. Paxton is not part of the solution. Sale isn't either.
The Red Sox have 4 starters: Bello, Houck, Pivetta and Crawford. As a group they aren't close to good enough.
By what measure? Pivetta, Crawford, and Paxton each have lower ERAs than Sale this year.
Exactly.
17 starts, 5.28 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 1.345 WHIP, 87.0 innings
17 starts, 4.88 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 1.200 WHIP, 86.2 innings
19 starts, 5.04 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.284 WHIP, 85.2 innings
12 starts, 5.87 ERA, 5.51 FIP, 1.467 WHIP, 61.1 innings
Which one clearly has no business being in the rotation mix for next year? That's, as starters, Houck, Sale, Crawford, and Pivetta respectively.
I can only assume that it's Sale's salary and his age that has folks so down on him. They're paying him next year. He can be better (we've certainly seen flashes this year). The only way he's not going to be in the rotation mix next year is if he retires or they trade him. If he's here, he's in the mix. Period.
What would Cleveland want for Shane Bieber? They've got a full rotation without him (McKenzie, Bibee, Williams, Quantrill, Allen, Curry) and they typically trade their good players before they hit free agency—and usually to the NL, which may make this moot.
He's got one more year of arbitration at roughly $12~ million. He’s only 29 next year, but he's damaged goods, coming off three months on the shelf with elbow inflammation, which saw his fastball drop from 94-95 in 2020 to roughly 89-91 this year. The bet of course is that he finds it again and we can extend him.
I'd have thought Verdugo was a decent swap, but now that they've picked up a recuperated and cost-controlled Laureano for nothing, I'm not so sure. Maybe Wong? Is that too much? I don’t think they’d need pitching.
He's got one more year of arbitration at roughly $12~ million. He’s only 29 next year, but he's damaged goods, coming off three months on the shelf with elbow inflammation, which saw his fastball drop from 94-95 in 2020 to roughly 89-91 this year. The bet of course is that he finds it again and we can extend him.
I'd have thought Verdugo was a decent swap, but now that they've picked up a recuperated and cost-controlled Laureano for nothing, I'm not so sure. Maybe Wong? Is that too much? I don’t think they’d need pitching.
View: https://twitter.com/codifybaseball/status/1701418882714714121?s=46
so. Are CGSO eventually going to be as rare as perfect games?
Not that I necessarily "disagree" with anything you've posted, but why isolate the park factors out for this year? Multi year factors are 106 / 106. Not that this is "news" but Fenway has pretty much always been a strong lean toward being a hitter's park. The lowest single year effects I've been able to find looking back a decade were 2013 which really looks like an outlier at 100/98 (hitting and pitching), other than that, at least looking back over the last decade, you haven't even had one single season that either a) favored pitchers or b) played even as exactly neutral (100/100).
Just looking back at Bloom's tenure as a mark of demarcation, the closest to "neutral" score has been 104/104 in the 2022 season.
It's not a good park to think mediocre (or worse) pitching won't be exposed, or put another way, due to the park effects, it's always unusually difficult to pitch in Fenway, and it's made worse because the defense has been so terrible. Amazingly, every other stadium in the AL East has become almost exactly neutral (multi year for NYY is at 101/100) and every other park has become slanted toward pitchers on the multi year, which probably has a lot to do with the new OF dimensions at Camden Yards recently.
Not only do the Red Sox need to get top of the rotation arm(s) to go with Bello, but they need to get some "not bad" starting pitching as opposed to whatever they've had recently.
Does anyone think you can win with that rotation? We are not competitive. Bello has promise, the rest look like back-of-the-rotation starters.
That's not the point he was making. But in related news:
View: https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1444328786816684043
One question concerning Yamamoto. Is it still the norm for Japanese pitchers to throw on 5 days rest? OK, two questions, for those who might know, what sort of contracts do the top pitchers and position players fetch in NPB?
Right, all SP's here are once a week, and that extra day of rest has been one of the bigger transition hurdles for pitchers making the move.
YY is the highest paid guy in NPB currently, on JPY 650 million this year, which at current fx rates is about USD 4.5m. Only 7 guys (2 pitchers including Yamamoto) in the league are on more than JPY 500m: https://baseball.yahoo.co.jp/npb/contract/ranking
Thanks for the responses. I knew that the once a week pitching schedule used to be the norm, but wasn't sure if things may have changed. I was also really curious how the salaries in Japan compared here as I don't recall ever seeing any discussion of it.