The single biggest issue with the offense is red zone efficiency.
They are tied with Denver for last in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency. Last year they were #7 at 63.1%. This year they're at 37.9%. Here's how it's gone in the red zone for the Pats this year, game by game:
Game 1 at Mia (1-1, 7 points, 0 missed points) - lost by 13
TD
Game 2 at Pit (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - won by 3
FG
TD
Game 3 vs Bal (3-5, 24 points, 10 missed points) - lost by 11
FG
TD
TD
TD
INT
Game 4 at GB (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - lost by 3
FG
TD
Game 5 vs Det (0-4, 12 points, 16 missed points) - won by 29
FG
FG
FG
FG
Game 6 at Cle (2-4, 17 points, 11 missed points) - won by 23
FG
TD
Missed FG
TD
Game 7 vs Chi (1-1, 7 points, 0 missed points) - lost by 19
TD
Game 8 at NYJ (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - won by 5
FG
TD
Game 9 vs Ind (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - won by 23
TD
FG
Game 10 vs NYJ (0-2, 3 points, 11 missed points) - won by 7
FG
Missed FG
Game 11 at Min (0-3, 9 points, 12 missed points) - lost by 7
FG
FG
FG
Game 12 vs Buf (0-1, 3 points, 4 missed points) - lost by 14
FG
So they've been in the red zone 29 times:
- 11 TD (37.9%)
- 15 FG (51.7%)
- 2 missed FG (6.9%)
- 1 turnover (3.4%)
They've had a possible 203 points (assuming one point conversions) and they've scored 122 points (60.0% of the possible points available) and left 81 on the table.
In some of those games it didn't matter. It mattered in the Baltimore game, because all they'd have needed in the end is a field goal but they had to go for a TD that led to the Agholor fumble. It mattered in the GB game when they left 4 points on the field and lost by 3 in overtime. It mattered in the Minnesota game where they left 12 points on the field and lost by 7.
If they scored TDs on 63.1% of their red zone opportunities, that would have meant they'd have scored 18 touchdowns in the red zone this year instead of 11. Obviously it matters in what game they score those, but on the whole, it would mean, if you turn 6 of those FG and one of those misses (either TO or missed FG) into a TD, approximately 31 extra points on the season. That could have meant the difference of 2 more wins, maybe 3.
Certainly, 8-4 or 9-3 look a hell of a lot better than 6-6. It's the difference between us looking at this being a lost year compared to a very positive step forward in the rebuilding process.
Frankly, I don't know WHY the red zone offense has been so bad, but my word it's been awful beyond belief.
That being said, they are also just 27th in the NFL in red zone opportunities per game at 2.7 (KC is #1 at 4.5), so it's not like they're getting the ball there very often, so maybe THAT is the biggest problem.
They are tied with Denver for last in the NFL in red zone scoring efficiency. Last year they were #7 at 63.1%. This year they're at 37.9%. Here's how it's gone in the red zone for the Pats this year, game by game:
Game 1 at Mia (1-1, 7 points, 0 missed points) - lost by 13
TD
Game 2 at Pit (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - won by 3
FG
TD
Game 3 vs Bal (3-5, 24 points, 10 missed points) - lost by 11
FG
TD
TD
TD
INT
Game 4 at GB (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - lost by 3
FG
TD
Game 5 vs Det (0-4, 12 points, 16 missed points) - won by 29
FG
FG
FG
FG
Game 6 at Cle (2-4, 17 points, 11 missed points) - won by 23
FG
TD
Missed FG
TD
Game 7 vs Chi (1-1, 7 points, 0 missed points) - lost by 19
TD
Game 8 at NYJ (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - won by 5
FG
TD
Game 9 vs Ind (1-2, 10 points, 4 missed points) - won by 23
TD
FG
Game 10 vs NYJ (0-2, 3 points, 11 missed points) - won by 7
FG
Missed FG
Game 11 at Min (0-3, 9 points, 12 missed points) - lost by 7
FG
FG
FG
Game 12 vs Buf (0-1, 3 points, 4 missed points) - lost by 14
FG
So they've been in the red zone 29 times:
- 11 TD (37.9%)
- 15 FG (51.7%)
- 2 missed FG (6.9%)
- 1 turnover (3.4%)
They've had a possible 203 points (assuming one point conversions) and they've scored 122 points (60.0% of the possible points available) and left 81 on the table.
In some of those games it didn't matter. It mattered in the Baltimore game, because all they'd have needed in the end is a field goal but they had to go for a TD that led to the Agholor fumble. It mattered in the GB game when they left 4 points on the field and lost by 3 in overtime. It mattered in the Minnesota game where they left 12 points on the field and lost by 7.
If they scored TDs on 63.1% of their red zone opportunities, that would have meant they'd have scored 18 touchdowns in the red zone this year instead of 11. Obviously it matters in what game they score those, but on the whole, it would mean, if you turn 6 of those FG and one of those misses (either TO or missed FG) into a TD, approximately 31 extra points on the season. That could have meant the difference of 2 more wins, maybe 3.
Certainly, 8-4 or 9-3 look a hell of a lot better than 6-6. It's the difference between us looking at this being a lost year compared to a very positive step forward in the rebuilding process.
Frankly, I don't know WHY the red zone offense has been so bad, but my word it's been awful beyond belief.
That being said, they are also just 27th in the NFL in red zone opportunities per game at 2.7 (KC is #1 at 4.5), so it's not like they're getting the ball there very often, so maybe THAT is the biggest problem.