The Mainboard MLB Lockout Thread

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Red(s)HawksFan

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Just to add on to my above post-

The 2019 AL Playoffs, under the seven teams in format, would have been:

1. HOU (107-55) Bye
2. NYY (103-59) vs 7. BOS (84-78)
3. MIN (101-61) vs 6. CLE (91-71)
4. OAK (97-65) vs 5. TAM (96-66)

Houston, Yankees, Minnesota obviously division winners. I would be on board with a "ghost win" for the 2/7 and 3/6 matchups, but I would be more on board with the current format.

Edit-

2021 would have been

1.TB (100-62) Bye
2. HOU (95-67) vs 7. SEA (90-72)
3. CHI (93-69) vs 6 TOR (91-71)
4. BOS (92-70) vs 5 NYY (92-70)

Note 8 was OAK with 86 wins so the exciting playoff race would have been not exciting. I think the seven teams in does more harm than good to the regular season.
I agree that it likely does more harm than good. Looking at 2021, with the 4 game difference between Seattle and Oakland, it's entirely possible that final weekend takes on a totally different look with the Sox, Yankees, Jays, and Mariners jockeying for match-ups or resting players/pitchers rather than doing all they can just to get in. Maybe the Sox or Yankees throw Game 162 away trying to avoid playing each other in favor of a match-up with a fading White Sox squad? For sure the Sox aren't bringing ERod out of the pen in the 8th inning on one day's rest to try to preserve the tie.

It might allow for more teams to be in contention and potentially more meaningful games in September, but to me it seems like it just shifts which teams are playing those meaningful games. Instead of it being the top 3-4 teams in each league, it's the 6-10th best teams while those top teams are likely in cruise control mode trying to rest up and line up for the playoffs.
 

jon abbey

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Of course it does more harm than good, I think it's crystal clear at this point that MLB owners collectively don't give a shit about that. They want the additional TV money as well as more systemic protection against accusations that their franchise isn't trying to compete. They'd probably put all 30 teams in the postseason if they were allowed.
 

koufax32

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I think tanking teams are more likely to tank harder with the new proposed formats. In theory, more potential deadline buyers means higher prices for buyable assets, so there’s more incentive to sell anything not nailed down.
Not that owners actual care about tanking, of course.
 

jon abbey

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The CBT is most of the impasse, I think, the rest is mostly details. Presumably they will cancel a second week of games soon.
 

snowmanny

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I think tanking teams are more likely to tank harder with the new proposed formats. In theory, more potential deadline buyers means higher prices for buyable assets, so there’s more incentive to sell anything not nailed down.
Not that owners actual care about tanking, of course.
On the other hand, if a team is 60-46 on July 31st, but 7 games behind the team with the best record, they shouldn't really be spending any major assets with the goal of improving their seeding. They're very unlikely to be the 1. They're very unlikely to drop to 8. Not much difference between finishing 2 or finishing 7.
 

jose melendez

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If the regular season ends up being playing for seeding with basically every 500 team making the playoffs, the season will be completely pointless. You'll start not only seeing starters only go throught the rotation twice, but taking off stretches of the year, lots of load management and other bullshit. Baseball and football have the only two regular seasons that matter worth a lick. Most NBA and NHL regular season games are absolutely pointless.
 

koufax32

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On the other hand, if a team is 60-46 on July 31st, but 7 games behind the team with the best record, they shouldn't really be spending any major assets with the goal of improving their seeding. They're very unlikely to be the 1. They're very unlikely to drop to 8. Not much difference between finishing 2 or finishing 7.
That’s a good point that I hadn’t thought of.
 

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If the regular season ends up being playing for seeding with basically every 500 team making the playoffs, the season will be completely pointless. You'll start not only seeing starters only go throught the rotation twice, but taking off stretches of the year, lots of load management and other bullshit. Baseball and football have the only two regular seasons that matter worth a lick. Most NBA and NHL regular season games are absolutely pointless.
People keep saying this but the assumption is wrong, IMO. The season would be pointless if the playoffs are set up poorly. A bye is very valuable to a division winner and if they introduce 3 game series into the playoffs, they could legitimately make the playoffs better too. I see it as, if you win the division/most games and get a bye, you don't really care how many teams under you are in an elimination round. Especially if by the time you're playing, you would be playing the same number of rounds as the previous playoffs system.
 

jose melendez

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People keep saying this but the assumption is wrong, IMO. The season would be pointless if the playoffs are set up poorly. A bye is very valuable to a division winner and if they introduce 3 game series into the playoffs, they could legitimately make the playoffs better too. I see it as, if you win the division/most games and get a bye, you don't really care how many teams under you are in an elimination round. Especially if by the time you're playing, you would be playing the same number of rounds as the previous playoffs system.
I said if you’re playing for seeding, which presumes no bye. I find the bye idea interesting.
 

jon abbey

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Well, it seems like if they ever agree on a deal, there will be a bye, whether it's 12 teams (2 byes) or 14 teams (1 bye). FWIW, right now there are essentially 3 byes and the winner of the coin flip wild card game.
 

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The "bye" as it is now could be argued as something of a disadvantage from some perspectives. Division winners right now get three or four days off after the end of the season while the wildcard games are played. If they make the new round a 3-game series, then that's adding at least one day and probably two, depending on how they structure the series, to the break. So we're talking about these teams with a bye waiting potentially up to a week before they play again. The positives of the time off is they can align their pitching staff anyway they want as well as rest and heal up after the long season. The negative is a week without games is going to dull the best teams.

I can't help but remember the 2007 Rockies and how they were as hot as a team could be for a 3-4 week stretch. Winning 20 of 21 heading into the World Series. A World Series that they sat waiting for for eight days while the Red Sox came back against Cleveland. Obviously, the Sox were a powerhouse that year and probably win that series regardless, it's hard not to think the week long layoff took a toll on the red hot Rockies.

And now MLB is trying to introduce that sort of layoff to it's top 2 or 4 teams every year just to squeeze a little bit more revenue out of the post-season.
 

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The "bye" as it is now could be argued as something of a disadvantage from some perspectives. Division winners right now get three or four days off after the end of the season while the wildcard games are played. If they make the new round a 3-game series, then that's adding at least one day and probably two, depending on how they structure the series, to the break. So we're talking about these teams with a bye waiting potentially up to a week before they play again. The positives of the time off is they can align their pitching staff anyway they want as well as rest and heal up after the long season. The negative is a week without games is going to dull the best teams.

I can't help but remember the 2007 Rockies and how they were as hot as a team could be for a 3-4 week stretch. Winning 20 of 21 heading into the World Series. A World Series that they sat waiting for for eight days while the Red Sox came back against Cleveland. Obviously, the Sox were a powerhouse that year and probably win that series regardless, it's hard not to think the week long layoff took a toll on the red hot Rockies.

And now MLB is trying to introduce that sort of layoff to it's top 2 or 4 teams every year just to squeeze a little bit more revenue out of the post-season.
But you could say the same thing about a team running away in a crap division. How many times have your heard "They haven't played a meaningful game for 3 weeks!" And I don't have a problem letting top teams reset - would much rather see both rotations start a series on full rest than running on fumes.
 

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I think it might be easier to set your team up for post season success. Maybe a team with 2 really good starters vs a team with a solid 1-5, built for the regular season
 

PedroKsBambino

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Best I can tell the MLBPA offer today is pretty terrible. Which I suspect is a major strategic blunder by them.

We can agree or not on who the 'good guys' and 'bad guys' are in this, but I think the reality is that this is about who is most willing to lose a lot of the season. And that is, I am pretty sure, the owners. So if I were advising MLBPA I'd be working a lot harder to avoid this extending as their leverage pretty much is declining by the day now.

I realize people are going to tell me how bad the owners are in response, and that's fine if we're debating morality, but this is about a negotiation. The goal is to find a deal that is better for each side than its alternative, and I worry that---as in past iterations of this---MLBPA is being unrealistic about what can be acheived and will end up caving to a weak deal. They need to offer something on tax/cap issues that is yesable to owners not because it is 'right' in the abstract, but because they are only going to get a worse deal later.
 

jon abbey

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They have already caved constantly, in these negotiations and in others. The owners expect them to continue to do so, we'll see. If a few more weeks of games are cancelled, the RSNs can start asking for money back from the owners, so that is something to watch.
 

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It sounds like the point at which the owners have to start refunding money on TV contracts varies, but is around 30 games into the season. 6 games is pretty meaningless to them, but if the Union is willing to go that deep into the lockout they have a real point of leverage
 

jon abbey

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They cancelled the first week on March 1, so you'd think the second week would be cancelled on March 8 (Tuesday).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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But you could say the same thing about a team running away in a crap division. How many times have your heard "They haven't played a meaningful game for 3 weeks!" And I don't have a problem letting top teams reset - would much rather see both rotations start a series on full rest than running on fumes.
I think there's a significant difference between playing non-meaningful games and not playing games at all. Giving teams a couple days off before the playoffs is fine (they've always built in a couple off-days to account for possible Game 163s). The break division winners get under the current system is roughly equivalent to the All Star break. I think getting much beyond that is where you get into the territory of teams getting rusty from lack of action. Daily BP and an intrasquad game or two can only do so much.
 

JimD

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Best I can tell the MLBPA offer today is pretty terrible. Which I suspect is a major strategic blunder by them.

We can agree or not on who the 'good guys' and 'bad guys' are in this, but I think the reality is that this is about who is most willing to lose a lot of the season. And that is, I am pretty sure, the owners. So if I were advising MLBPA I'd be working a lot harder to avoid this extending as their leverage pretty much is declining by the day now.

I realize people are going to tell me how bad the owners are in response, and that's fine if we're debating morality, but this is about a negotiation. The goal is to find a deal that is better for each side than its alternative, and I worry that---as in past iterations of this---MLBPA is being unrealistic about what can be acheived and will end up caving to a weak deal. They need to offer something on tax/cap issues that is yesable to owners not because it is 'right' in the abstract, but because they are only going to get a worse deal later.
Curious what you think is so terrible about the MLBPA proposal. They moved on the pre-arb bonus pool amount and made a major concession on the commissioner's ability to make changes to rules and play, which is a significant bargaining chip they hold. Perhaps they could have nudged the CBT amount down a bit as well, but their proposal otherwise seems like good-faith bargaining to me, while MLB's immediate dismissal comes off as more posturing from a party that appears determined to wreck the game if need be to achieve domination in this faceoff.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I think there's a significant difference between playing non-meaningful games and not playing games at all. Giving teams a couple days off before the playoffs is fine (they've always built in a couple off-days to account for possible Game 163s). The break division winners get under the current system is roughly equivalent to the All Star break. I think getting much beyond that is where you get into the territory of teams getting rusty from lack of action. Daily BP and an intrasquad game or two can only do so much.
I agree that rustiness has been and can be a problem, but mostly because teams don’t plan for the layoff. College football teams have a 5-6 weeks off before their bowl games. But they expect the layoff, and coaching staffs design a schedule to plan for it.

Bring in some mL arms to help with infrasquad games, played at regular game times, and treat the games like spring training, with starting position players going 3-4 innings. That’s how teams prepare to start the season. I’m sure they could learn to strategically prep for the playoffs in a similar way.

… A bye is very valuable to a division winner and if they REintroduce 3 game series into the playoffs, they could legitimately make the playoffs better too. …
Agree, and only note that LCS used to be 3 games, as when our hometown nine swept Oakland in 1975.
 

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According to Rosenthal one of MLB’s major demands is to make changes to the rules (pitch clocks, base sizes, shifts etc) arbitrarily. Now , I understand this is a big bargaining chip for the players to give up. But quite frankly I think they shouldn’t have it in the first place. So movement in this area from MLBPA should really be possible without much pain for the players.
 

joe dokes

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It sounds like the point at which the owners have to start refunding money on TV contracts varies, but is around 30 games into the season. 6 games is pretty meaningless to them, but if the Union is willing to go that deep into the lockout they have a real point of leverage
How many teams own some part of their TV broadcaster? For them, it's a paper transaction that allows them to deduct even more losses than usual for tax purposes.
 

jon abbey

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According to Rosenthal one of MLB’s major demands is to make changes to the rules (pitch clocks, base sizes, shifts etc) arbitrarily. Now , I understand this is a big bargaining chip for the players to give up. But quite frankly I think they shouldn’t have it in the first place. So movement in this area from MLBPA should really be possible without much pain for the players.
I don't think that's a major demand from MLB as much as it is a diversion tactic from the actual thing both sides mostly care about (the CBT), but either way MLBPA conceded these points in their offer yesterday and MLB responded that the MLPBA was moving backwards in their offers (!!!!).
 

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The benefit of a 14 team playoff is the Owners could just extend the lockout until September, eliminate overheads and make a large share of the TV/attendance revenue return for playoffs, with the low-budget teams just passing on the whole thing. Hell, make it a 28 team playoff. September madness.

Why not just go all-in and ruin baseball completely.

On a serious note: I'm wondering what cities, many of whom gave substantial tax breaks to stadium builders, are planning. I would support them suing MLB for lost revenue.
 

Captaincoop

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Just to add on to my above post-

The 2019 AL Playoffs, under the seven teams in format, would have been:

1. HOU (107-55) Bye
2. NYY (103-59) vs 7. BOS (84-78)
3. MIN (101-61) vs 6. CLE (91-71)
4. OAK (97-65) vs 5. TAM (96-66)

8-TEX (78-84)

Houston, Yankees, Minnesota obviously division winners. I would be on board with a "ghost win" for the 2/7 and 3/6 matchups, but I would be more on board with the current format.

Edit-

2021 would have been

1.TB (100-62) Bye
2. HOU (95-67) vs 7. SEA (90-72)
3. CHI (93-69) vs 6 TOR (91-71)
4. BOS (92-70) vs 5 NYY (92-70)

Note 8 was OAK with 86 wins so the exciting playoff race would have been not exciting. I think the seven teams in does more harm than good to the regular season.
It's a big negative. Teams are going to have playoff bids sewn up in July, and then spend two months playing Tommy John roulette waiting for the playoffs to start.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Curious what you think is so terrible about the MLBPA proposal. They moved on the pre-arb bonus pool amount and made a major concession on the commissioner's ability to make changes to rules and play, which is a significant bargaining chip they hold. Perhaps they could have nudged the CBT amount down a bit as well, but their proposal otherwise seems like good-faith bargaining to me, while MLB's immediate dismissal comes off as more posturing from a party that appears determined to wreck the game if need be to achieve domination in this faceoff.
I think the movement on the economics (which is the most critical dealbreaker, imo) is negligible and the counter was designed to give on stuff they knew they were going to bargain away in order to get headlines. That's pretty much precisely the definition of 'bad faith' someone mentioned earlier. Not saying I agree---I think both sides have very predictably negotiated with small concessions and public posturing. I'd make precise same commentary on the prior owner's offer. That is not to say (as I've said all through thread) I personally view them as equally morally good, only that this is a negotiation problem and I don't see a lot different in concessions and posturing from either side.

As several have alluded to, I also think MLBPA hasn't been interested in looking at more transformational change (unclear to me if owners would be) and that leaves them in a 'ground war' on a pre-determined set of issues. That, to me, is not a good strategy when your alternative is worse than the other sides, which is where I think players are. I don't like the owner's historical approach to labor issues, but they are a much more united group than the players I suspect, and they have a more viable alternative in my opinion, so they are in a better position to wait this out. That's why I'm critical of MLBPA strategy overall---I appreciate they have a tough hand, and I also don't know that they have played it very well.
 

mikcou

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How many teams own some part of their TV broadcaster? For them, it's a paper transaction that allows them to deduct even more losses than usual for tax purposes.
I dont follow this. There's only more losses if the team owns the broadcaster and the broadcaster loses money. Typically isnt a good way to run a business - the motivation to have your own network is to capture the margin that networks have historically retained after paying the applicable license/foryalty fee.

Teams with their own networks will be more sensitive to lost games as they lose revenue immediately rather than after 30 games are cancelled (or whatever the threshold is in the agreements with the networks).
 

Ale Xander

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The benefit of a 14 team playoff is the Owners could just extend the lockout until September, eliminate overheads and make a large share of the TV/attendance revenue return for playoffs, with the low-budget teams just passing on the whole thing. Hell, make it a 28 team playoff. September madness.

Why not just go all-in and ruin baseball completely.

On a serious note: I'm wondering what cities, many of whom gave substantial tax breaks to stadium builders, are planning. I would support them suing MLB for lost revenue.
MLB cities meet to get in line behind the Grapefruit League ST cities though.
this is hurting Fort Myers, Lakeland, and Port St Lucie a lot more than your large city with MLB.
 

snowmanny

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Under the 14 team playoff, teams with losing records would have made the NL playoffs in 2016 and 2014 and a .500 team would have been in in 2013. In the American League a team with a losing record would have made it in 2018,. And in 2017 there would have been a playoff between the 80-82 Rays, Royals and Angels with two teams getting in and one going home.
 

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Ale Xander

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It may be finite, but it's greater than what the owners are currently spending on labor.
 

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I don't like the owner's historical approach to labor issues, but they are a much more united group than the players I suspect
The owners don't have to be united. It takes 23 owners' votes to approve any deal. That means 8 owners acting and voting together essentially have veto power over any deal the other 22 owners might want to make. We already have a pretty good idea about the position that 4 owners take and if they're not willing to move and are able to get the support of 4 more then it's going to be a very long time before any deal can be reached.
 

BringBackMo

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I find these dismissive takes regarding MLBPA strategy and approach unpersuasive. These posts all seem to make vague arguments that the players just aren’t approaching the negotiations in the right way, that they’re focused on the wrong issues, that they’re too short term or limited in their ideas and strategies. What they never quite seem to specify is exactly what the players should be asking for that they’re not, what they should be conceding that they’re not, what they should be doing differently. I don’t know enough about the business of baseball to have an informed opinion about whether the players are making strategic blunders, and I have my doubts that anyone else here does either.

What I do know is that the owners enjoy exemptions from American anti-trust laws that give them a pronounced advantage in their dealings with the players. Despite already benefiting from this advantage, the MLB owners have repeatedly demonstrated a willingness through the years to illegally collude, and they have exhibited a willingness during these particular negotiations to obfuscate, mischaracterize, and outright lie. In other words, they are playing for blood.

I also know from multiple press accounts that the median salary for major league players is lower today than it was in 2015, and we can infer from recent reporting that at least one of the things the owners want is is drive salaries still lower, all of this during a time of exploding franchise revenues and valuations. How best are the players to negotiate a fairer distribution of the revenue pie? I don’t profess to know, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to conclude that the deck is stacked against them.

I am NOT arguing that the players are being sharp and strategic in these negotiations—again, I don’t know enough to know. What I am arguing is that the players’ lawyers and negotiators know the stakes, and that they have a better understanding of the dynamics, underlying issues, and strategic alternatives than any of us.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I find these dismissive takes regarding MLBPA strategy and approach unpersuasive. These posts all seem to make vague arguments that the players just aren’t approaching the negotiations in the right way, that they’re focused on the wrong issues, that they’re too short term or limited in their ideas and strategies. What they never quite seem to specify is exactly what the players should be asking for that they’re not, what they should be conceding that they’re not, what they should be doing differently. I don’t know enough about the business of baseball to have an informed opinion about whether the players are making strategic blunders, and I have my doubts that anyone else here does either.

What I do know is that the owners enjoy exemptions from American anti-trust laws that give them a pronounced advantage in their dealings with the players. Despite already benefiting from this advantage, the MLB owners have repeatedly demonstrated a willingness through the years to illegally collude, and they have exhibited a willingness during these particular negotiations to obfuscate, mischaracterize, and outright lie. In other words, they are playing for blood.

I also know from multiple press accounts that the median salary for major league players is lower today than it was in 2015, and we can infer from recent reporting that at least one of the things the owners want is is drive salaries still lower, all of this during a time of exploding franchise revenues and valuations. How best are the players to negotiate a fairer distribution of the revenue pie? I don’t profess to know, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to conclude that the deck is stacked against them.

I am NOT arguing that the players are being sharp and strategic in these negotiations—again, I don’t know enough to know. What I am arguing is that the players’ lawyers and negotiators know the stakes, and that they have a better understanding of the dynamics, underlying issues, and strategic alternatives than any of us.
That's fine, if you want to say "they must know more and better" that is your choice.

For me, and at one point I was pretty closely following this and have some knowledge of the general area, MLBPA's lawyers post-Miller have a track record of being really ineffective at this. For example, they claim now that when the luxury tax was first put in place there was an "implicit agreement" that the ceiling would rise as revenues rose. That is from Rosenthal's piece today in the Athletic. Saying such a major term is "implicit" is a massive failure by them--and they signed an agreement that had no raise in the tax for multiple years, contrary to the alleged 'implicit' agreement. I think most of us who have been anywhere near such a discussion would have recognized if you want the tax to go up you need to include that in the agreement.

To be clear, I don't think MLBPA's team is dumb---I think, and believe I said above, that they have a really fractured set of players and so they are managing that (so I suspect the explanation for the above is MLBPA realized they needed a deal and took what was available, telling the players the tax would rise with revenues but not including that not because they missed it, but because owners wouldn't go for it). Which is a major disadvantage. I do believe, and suggested above, that they also have a philosophical positoin I do not agree with. MLBPA has consistently opposed a more NBA-style share of total revenue in exchange for a cap option which several in the thread have noted is likely better for players. MLBPA, unique among player associations, has chosen to argue that sharing the pie is not the goal---enabling high-spending teams to spend whatever they can is the goal. I do not agree this is in the interest of the players overall. You, of course, may choose to believe that they know best. But when you cite things like average salary not changing remember that MLBPA under essentially the current leadership is the one who struck this deal. So it is, at a minimum, a valid question to ask whether that is because the evil bogeyman owners did it or whether MLBPA is fighting the wrong conceptual fights. Which is not to say the owners are not bad actors, only that assuming it is as simple as good guys and bad guys doesn't fit all that cleanly, either. There are some other dynamics at play here, in my view....
 

Murderer's Crow

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That's fine, if you want to say "they must know more and better" that is your choice.

For me, and at one point I was pretty closely following this and have some knowledge of the general area, MLBPA's lawyers post-Miller have a track record of being really ineffective at this. For example, they claim now that when the luxury tax was first put in place there was an "implicit agreement" that the ceiling would rise as revenues rose. That is from Rosenthal's piece today in the Athletic. Saying such a major term is "implicit" is a massive failure by them--and they signed an agreement that had no raise in the tax for multiple years, contrary to the alleged 'implicit' agreement. I think most of us who have been anywhere near such a discussion would have recognized if you want the tax to go up you need to include that in the agreement.

To be clear, I don't think MLBPA's team is dumb---I think, and believe I said above, that they have a really fractured set of players and so they are managing that (so I suspect the explanation for the above is MLBPA realized they needed a deal and took what was available, telling the players the tax would rise with revenues but not including that not because they missed it, but because owners wouldn't go for it). Which is a major disadvantage. I do believe, and suggested above, that they also have a philosophical positoin I do not agree with. MLBPA has consistently opposed a more NBA-style share of total revenue in exchange for a cap option which several in the thread have noted is likely better for players. MLBPA, unique among player associations, has chosen to argue that sharing the pie is not the goal---enabling high-spending teams to spend whatever they can is the goal. I do not agree this is in the interest of the players overall. You, of course, may choose to believe that they know best. But when you cite things like average salary not changing remember that MLBPA under essentially the current leadership is the one who struck this deal. So it is, at a minimum, a valid question to ask whether that is because the evil bogeyman owners did it or whether MLBPA is fighting the wrong conceptual fights. Which is not to say the owners are not bad actors, only that assuming it is as simple as good guys and bad guys doesn't fit all that cleanly, either. There are some other dynamics at play here, in my view....
I think the bolded is really interesting. Does raising the cap do anything except cause the top 3 or 4 teams to spend more? Is it better for the players, really? Wouldn't it be smarter to focus on hitting on an issue that causes more teams to spend more money? Maybe raising the cap raises the league average a little but does it do so much as it cause a work stoppage? I'm skeptical.
 

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It's a deep topic. One thing unique about baseball is arbitration, which uses comps to determine salaries. There is a lot of people who believe that (on average) arbitration raises long-term salary structure in MLB since it introduces some higer awards (remember---it's not 'what's the right answer' it's 'which of these two do you prefer' so players can aim high). And what makes some of those high-arb awards is that the comps are players signed by higher-spending teams (even if it is in an extension).

People have alluded in this thread to the relationshp between team spending and winning. I think there's some shortcuts in some of the posts around that, but the basic idea is that baseball is an arms race and if the Yankees, Sox, and Dodgers are spending a ton that will tend to pull other teams towards them to compete. This is the same reason some on player's side oppose expanded playoffs---reduces the need to match/try to match spending.

Put those two together and there is a theory for MLBPA's focus on the top, not the overall or the middle, here. I just think it is a theory from the 1980s when they were trying to get past a really bad system and get to a more realistic overall deal. Today, I think they would overall be better off trying to drive for transparency around revenue and a share of the pie. I get that's a challenge---baseball has not developed owners or labor relationships the sameway other sports have. But to me, they need to think hard about their philosophical underpinnings---saying 'we will never accept a cap' isn't wrong, but if it leads to less money for players overall I'm not sure it is a good choice, either. Obviously, you have to know what owners would be truly willing to do and my comment is that by most accounts MLBPA is not interested in playing out that option. I have little faith in MLB owners, but I do think possible there's enough of them who think financial and labor certainty is valuable that it might lead somehwere new.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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we can infer from recent reporting that at least one of the things the owners want is is drive salaries still lower, all of this during a time of exploding franchise revenues and valuations. How best are the players to negotiate a fairer distribution of the revenue pie? I don’t profess to know, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to conclude that the deck is stacked against them.
So yeah, I agree that the owners want to drive salaries lower (or at least get some cost certainty) and I also agree that the players have the deck stacked against them to a degree. You know why? Because the owners are the ones that own the franchises. They are the ones getting the 9- and 10-figure stadiums built and negotiating the billion dollar TV contracts and creating the entire infrastructure giving us the game of baseball.

And as we've seen time and time again, it's just not that easy to duplicate.

The owners are greedy. You know why? Because they are billionaires. If they were happy being millionaires, they wouldn't be billionaires. Maybe if you or I won a team due to a lottery or something like that, maybe we'd be okay limiting our profits and giving away part of our money to the players. But every other owner - at this point, for whatever reason, they're just trying to maximize profits. Isn't this the American way?

I hope the players and their consultants/representatives are smarter than us and know what they are doing. I hope they figure out how to get the owners to cave and get any increase they ask for. At this point, the numbers are so large, it doesn't really make any difference to me.

OTOH, if PKB and I are correct, the worse case scenario for the players is that this ends up like the NHL. While I'm hoping it doesn't go there, I'm pretty sure there's a faction of owners who would like to see this.

At any rate, the tl;dr = I hope you are correct.
 

BravesField

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The owners don't have to be united. It takes 23 owners' votes to approve any deal. That means 8 owners acting and voting together essentially have veto power over any deal the other 22 owners might want to make. We already have a pretty good idea about the position that 4 owners take and if they're not willing to move and are able to get the support of 4 more then it's going to be a very long time before any deal can be reached.
Agreed but......the longer the lockout goes, then the possible/probable risk of Congress getting involved revoking the antitrust exemption. If I'm the players union, I'm working that angle now. Obviously, the loss of the exemption would make the owners go bonkers.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Agreed but......the longer the lockout goes, then the possible/probable risk of Congress getting involved revoking the antitrust exemption. If I'm the players union, I'm working that angle now. Obviously, the loss of the exemption would make the owners go bonkers.
Doesn't this get said every time there's a labor issue in baseball? Why is this time going to be any different?
 

IpswichSox

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Not sure how the politics of this would break down in Congress -- baseball isn't a traditional union issue, so the typical Republican and Democrat positions on labor may not fully apply here. But note that changing the antitrust exemption would require 60 votes in the Senate, so for this to gain any traction it would have to be at least somewhat bipartisan.
 

BringBackMo

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Thanks to both of you for your responses.

MLBPA's lawyers post-Miller have a track record of being really ineffective at this.
My general understanding is that Don Fehr was quite a good leader of the MLBPA from 1985 to 2009. Not only did the union under his leadership strike a number of good deals, but Fehr also led the drive for the collusion investigations that resulted in millions going to players. He was followed by longtime Fehr deputy Michael Weiner, who served a tenure of four years notable mostly for its quiet competence before he died at age 51 of complications from a brain tumor. It was after Weiner's death that Clark stepped into the role. That was in 2013, a time of great technological change/disruption that was fundamentally altering the revenue landscape of professional sports--and a moment when the union found itself for the first time without leadership from a direct descendant of Marvin Miller. Without question, Clark and the union fumbled the negotiations that led to the 2016 CBA. There is no excusing that. What is less clear, from my reading, is that the union and its leadership have not learned from that experience. More to the point, I think it is a complete mischaracterization to assert that the MLBA has a track record since Miller retired of ineffectiveness, and that the current negotiations should somehow be viewed through such a lens. 2016 was a costly, costly blunder for the players, but it's unclear to me that Clark and his deputies have ignored the lessons of those negotiations.
For example, they claim now that when the luxury tax was first put in place there was an "implicit agreement" that the ceiling would rise as revenues rose. That is from Rosenthal's piece today in the Athletic. Saying such a major term is "implicit" is a massive failure by them
Fair enough. Again, clear mistakes were made in the past. I would also point out that this anecdote--if the players are accurate in their allegations--points to the lack of trustworthiness of MLB owners as negotiating partners.
To be clear, I don't think MLBPA's team is dumb---I think, and believe I said above, that they have a really fractured set of players and so they are managing that
What I find interesting about this assessment, which is likely true, is that it ignores that the owners appear to be just as fractured as the players, if not more so. Buster Olney has reported that a segment of the ownership groups--and we can probably figure out who they are--do not favor the current approach being taken by their peers. My rough reading of the situation is that one group of owners continues to view players as labor, from which every concession must be extracted, while another groups sees players as business partners. Olney has written that he wonders whether any of these owners will eventually break with their colleagues, as Peter Angelos did in 1994.
MLBPA has consistently opposed a more NBA-style share of total revenue in exchange for a cap option
It is true that MLB opposes the cap. I say this without challenge and with the genuine hope of learning more: Has there been anything authoritative (quoting economists, etc.) written arguing that a salary cap would, in fact, be better for players? And has there been anything written that owners--who right now have a mechanism in the CBT that is very much functioning for them as a de facto cap--are open to the kinds of concessions that the players would want in exchange for a hard cap? If these kinds of articles/papers are out there--that the players would be better off with a hard cap, and that the owners are open to making concessions for a hard cap that the won't for other union asks--then they would clearly point to incompetence on the part of union leadership.
You, of course, may choose to believe that they know best. But when you cite things like average salary not changing remember that MLBPA under essentially the current leadership is the one who struck this deal.
I am not pointing to the average salary not changing. I am pointing to the median salary going down. I am confident that you know the difference, but just to get it out there: The average salary is a misleading way to evaluate player salaries, because if you have one guy signing a mega contract it pulls the average up for everybody. The median salary, of course, is the one at which half the individual salaries are higher and half are lower. The median player salary is lower today than it was in 2015 despite a large increase in revenues. Players are making less money today--in 2022 dollars--than they were in 2015. You are correct that the players agreed to this deal, as I acknowledged above.
So it is, at a minimum, a valid question to ask whether that is because the evil bogeyman owners did it or whether MLBPA is fighting the wrong conceptual fights.
I'm continuing to argue that they are fighting evil bogeymen, as WBCD, in a way, argues below. I am open to seeing evidence that the MLBPA is right now fighting the wrong conceptual fights, but from my reading, this thread has yet to surface any of it.
also agree that the players have the deck stacked against them to a degree. You know why? Because the owners are the ones that own the franchises. They are the ones getting the 9- and 10-figure stadiums built and negotiating the billion dollar TV contracts and creating the entire infrastructure giving us the game of baseball.
I don't understand how any of these responsibilities, efforts, and obligations explains why the players have the deck stacked against them, or makes it acceptable that they do. But even if they did explain it, these are the things that ownership contributes to the fan experience, that's true. Players are the ones who spend their lives working toward a career in professional baseball, toiling in the minor leagues, enduring repeated failure under difficult circumstances, and, eventually, turning in thrilling performances in a stadium supplied by an owner. Is that any less crucial to giving us the game of baseball? Is it at least equal to what the owners contribute to the universe of reasons that you sit down to watch a Red Sox game?
The owners are greedy. You know why? Because they are billionaires. If they were happy being millionaires, they wouldn't be billionaires. Maybe if you or I won a team due to a lottery or something like that, maybe we'd be okay limiting our profits and giving away part of our money to the players. But every other owner - at this point, for whatever reason, they're just trying to maximize profits. Isn't this the American way?
As I hope our past interactions have demonstrated, I am someone who respects your thinking and your contributions here. This right here is basically what I, and others in this thread, have been saying to you all along. We have said that we want baseball, and something is keeping us from having baseball. We have said that that something is primarily the fact that owners are not negotiating in good faith and are not proposing a financial deal that is fair and acceptable to players. And the reason for that, we have said, is that the owners are greedy and are just trying to maximize profits. You have dismissed this as rooting for the players and the stuff of talk radio.

My interest in all of this is that I want to watch the fucking Boston Red Sox play baseball. I'm on the side of whatever makes that happen. And my reading of the situation to this point is that the reason there might be no baseball is that the owners don't want to pay the players what they deserve. So far, I have yet to see evidence that there is some deal out there that is good for the players but that they simply are too incompetent, stubborn, or uninformed to pursue. That is essentially what you have been arguing. If you can present evidence of this, then I am more than willing to reassess my opinion--I have acknowledged that I am no expert in the business of baseball. But for right now, it looks to me as though, yes, it is the evil bogeymen owners that are preventing me from watching baseball.
 

staz

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162 still possible per Heyman. I would love to be a fly on the wall in the MLB Scheduling Department over the past 2 years.

View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1501188995258138628?s=20&t=kO5JniGWUtiG5hEqx5vEpw


Huge day in baseball. Deadline No. 3. MLB told the players union if they can do deal today they can still play 162 games; if not, a 2nd week may be lost. MLB suggested a rise in luxury tax threshold to $228M, But details haven’t surfaced and players say there’s still work to do.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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You have dismissed this as rooting for the players and the stuff of talk radio.
Let me try to put this another way. I've not really taken sides on who is to blame because I'm interested in the actual negotiations and where it ends up. I don't think I've dismissed people wanting to blame the owners, it's just that I'm not that emotionally involved. The owners are who they are. Wanting them to be fair and just and reasonable is fine but it's not going to happen.

More important, if the players believe that the owners as a group are suddenly going to become fair and just and reasonable, I think that's a miscalculation. People don't get to choose who they are negotiating against.

If you and I are negotiating with someone who is unreasonable it's not like anything we're going to do is going to make the other side reasonable. Either we walk away (not possible here), we draw a line in the stand (which leads to a standoff), or we find the best unreasonable deal we can get.

My interest in all of this is that I want to watch the fucking Boston Red Sox play baseball. I'm on the side of whatever makes that happen. And my reading of the situation to this point is that the reason there might be no baseball is that the owners don't want to pay the players what they deserve. So far, I have yet to see evidence that there is some deal out there that is good for the players but that they simply are too incompetent, stubborn, or uninformed to pursue. That is essentially what you have been arguing. If you can present evidence of this, then I am more than willing to reassess my opinion--I have acknowledged that I am no expert in the business of baseball. But for right now, it looks to me as though, yes, it is the evil bogeymen owners that are preventing me from watching baseball.
With respect to the bolded, I have never said that there's a good deal out there for the players. What I am arguing is that once the parties get beyond a certain point (not sure where that point is), I believe that the players are going to have to take a worse deal than what is currently on the table, and that deal could be much worse.

I have acknowledged and continue to acknowledge that the deals offered by the owners aren't objectively "fair." Yeah, if you compare the owners' offer to the status quo, it's probably a little moving backwards. That's a tough pill to swallow. As you and PKB note, the players are probably too fractured to take it.

OTOH, the deal the owners are offering is not objectively terrible either. As you and PKB also note, there is probably a contingent of owners that just want to play baseball and they are moderating the influence of the hawk owners. the other thing I worry about is that the longer this drags own, some of the moderate owners will become hawks and the hawks will have more influence and that's when a NHL-style outcome comes into play.

Hopefully, I am wrong and the players and their counsel know what they are doing. But we thought the NHL players and their counsel knew what they were doing, and objectively speaking, the NHL players got hammered.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Thanks to both of you for your responses.


My general understanding is that Don Fehr was quite a good leader of the MLBPA from 1985 to 2009. Not only did the union under his leadership strike a number of good deals, but Fehr also led the drive for the collusion investigations that resulted in millions going to players. He was followed by longtime Fehr deputy Michael Weiner, who served a tenure of four years notable mostly for its quiet competence before he died at age 51 of complications from a brain tumor. It was after Weiner's death that Clark stepped into the role. That was in 2013, a time of great technological change/disruption that was fundamentally altering the revenue landscape of professional sports--and a moment when the union found itself for the first time without leadership from a direct descendant of Marvin Miller. Without question, Clark and the union fumbled the negotiations that led to the 2016 CBA. There is no excusing that. What is less clear, from my reading, is that the union and its leadership have not learned from that experience. More to the point, I think it is a complete mischaracterization to assert that the MLBA has a track record since Miller retired of ineffectiveness, and that the current negotiations should somehow be viewed through such a lens. 2016 was a costly, costly blunder for the players, but it's unclear to me that Clark and his deputies have ignored the lessons of those negotiations.
Let me make two simple comments in response:

First, I see conclusions above but no data or analysis. How would you support the above conclusions?

Second, and related to the above, don't you think there's a fundamental inconsistency between stating MLBPA has done a good job (as you have asserted) and also that the player's deal keeps getting worse? I get the owners are tough, but at some point one has to ask about the strategy too, imo.

As I think I said already, that fundamental disconnect runs through this thread and is, I would suggest, a problem many here have not really wrestled with. That is why I have tried to get us away from 'good guys and bad guys' and instead towards something more strategic and practical about the choices each side faces and makes. I want the situation resolved, and in a sustainable way. It is my belief MLPBA is largely fighting 'the last war' in an unhelpful way and one that is unlikely to create a different and sustainable dynamic. I think it is really just an unknown what MLB would do if MLBPA changed it's approach-----and I have zero love or trust in the owners. But I see a lot of criticism of their negotiating which is, to be kind, underthought and virtually none the other way. I think we're better than that.

Agree with WBCD that part of the challenge is framing the negotiation---it is not 'is this a great deal' it is instead 'is this the best deal we can get, and is it better than our alternative'. That is the question BOTH sides should and I expect are asking. In assessing the no-agreement alternative, the players have to worry about keeping their coalition together which is (if only because of numbers and diversity of situations) far more complicated than the owners. These challenges frame what is possible, and I suspect also dictate where this ends up. Put a different way, time is very likely on the owner's side and for me, that means the players should be very creative very early to try and build towards a deal....because I believe as we get to the end they are likely to feel internal pressure to take what's offered as they have in the past.
 
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BravesField

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Doesn't this get said every time there's a labor issue in baseball? Why is this time going to be any different?
The post by Geoflin states that if 8 owners dig in their heels, it's going to be a long strike. Now possibly that could happen. So, revoking antitrust is one way to motivate owners sitting on a fence. I'm not saying do it or not, just reminding us that it is another means to an end.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The post by Geoflin states that if 8 owners dig in their heels, it's going to be a long strike. Now possibly that could happen. So, revoking antitrust is one way to motivate owners sitting on a fence. I'm not saying do it or not, just reminding us that it is another means to an end.
People (not just you; just using your post as a jumping off point) need to stop relying on revoking the antitrust exemption. It's not like the NBA, NFL, or NHL have a specific antitrust exemption and those owners seem to do just fine.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The other thing to note in all this is (and we likely have labor law experts around here who can augment/correct below description) we need to keep in mind the legal and procedural alternative the owners have, which is to declare an impasse, impose their last, best offer, and likely push this into court to litigate whether MLB has engaged in unfair labor practices. I'm sure both sides have calibrated what that might look like---and the range and risk of different outcomes. So, as they decide what to offer and when that path is hanging around out there and frames the range of negotiated outcomes - because neither side is likely to agree to something they pereceive as worse than they could achieve if an impasse is declared. That being out there matters for what is possible, and also how they perceive timing and velocity of the negoitation.

On the overall MLBPA strategy, one question people should ponder is who they are best off trying to maximize support for. One reason some believe the 1995 strike was a big win for labor is that it avoided a cap; that is what enables the gigantic, long-term contracts which are unique to baseball. As with protecting arbitration process that is generally salary-enhancing, I get that. There is benefit to each, and a reasonable case to be made at least in 1995 they made the right choice there.

However, there's also a contrary case. A different way to think of it is that MLBPA represents hundreds of players, most of who will never get that contract AND at least the interests of hundreds/thousands more of minor league players. If the price of protecting high salaries at the far right of the salary distribution curve is a shrinking median salary, is that actually progress? I don't think there's a single obvious answer to that, but I do wonder whether we should be asking more about those trade-offs. We all, I expect, hate service time manipulation---that is a product of arb and high salaries. Not defending teams doing it so much as noting it is a forseeable and predictable response to the incentives created in the deal baseball has. To be clear, in order to impact this you need a package of changes---better visibility and agreement around baseball revenue, agreement to share it, higher min salary, etc. But other leagues have managed those things.

So, when I question the overall direction for MLBPA that's part of what gets me there. it is not faith in or love for owners as a group (I have neither) it is thinking about the choices being made and the practicalities of getting 3/4 or so of each side to be able to agree to a deal.
 
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